证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 客车11月月报： 10月内需同比修复，期待年底翘尾行情 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年11月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2 ◼ 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术 输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真真切切反映到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对 客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背后支撑因素： （ ➢ 1）天时：符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余 年的出海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业 【走出去】。 ➢ 2）地利：客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车 已领先海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 ➢ 3）人和：国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲 击+新能源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年 ...

Core Insights - The total number of inbound and outbound trips in Macau has surpassed 200 million as of November 9, 2023, setting a new record for the fastest achievement of this milestone, 29 days earlier than last year [1] - The average daily crossings in Macau have reached 640,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] Group 1: Traffic Growth - The increase in traffic is attributed to the support of national policies and various facilitation measures for border crossings [1] - Macau has seen multiple record-breaking single-day crossings, including 142,000 at the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge on February 1, and 837,000 on May 2 across all ports [1] - The Hengqin port also recorded a single-day crossing of 128,000, marking a new high [1]

Core Insights - Brunei's tourism industry is showing positive recovery signs, with a significant increase in visitors from China, who accounted for 28,714 arrivals, representing 15.5% of all air arrivals, making China the second-largest source of tourists for Brunei [1] Group 1: Tourism Recovery - The majority of Chinese visitors come for leisure, business, or family visits, indicating a restoration of confidence in travel between the two countries [1] - The implementation of a 14-day visa-free entry policy for Chinese citizens in March has enhanced travel convenience and deepened economic and cultural ties [1] Group 2: Air Connectivity - Brunei Royal Airlines has launched direct flights from Nanning and Hangzhou, along with regular flights to Beijing and Hong Kong, which strengthens air connectivity and meets the growing travel demand from Chinese tourists [1]

Group 1 - The Macau tourism market showed significant recovery during the 8-day National Day holiday, with a total of 1.144 million inbound travelers, averaging 143,000 daily, representing increases of 1.9% and 2.8% compared to 2024 and 2019 respectively [1][2] - Mainland travelers accounted for the majority, with 943,000 visitors, making up 82.4% of total inbound traffic, while Hong Kong travelers represented 11.2% [1] - International travelers also saw a notable increase, with 57,000 arrivals, averaging about 7,200 daily, marking a substantial rise of 29.9% compared to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The 2025 National Day holiday was extended to 8 days, enhancing its significance as a key tourism period for Macau [2] - The Macau government organized various events, such as the 33rd Macau International Fireworks Display Contest and community tourism activities, to create a festive atmosphere and encourage local spending [2] - Hotel occupancy rates were high, averaging 87.9% during the holiday, with a peak of 93.5% on October 2, while the average room rate was approximately 1,698.8 MOP, down 7.8% from the previous year [2]

Core Insights - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday from October 1 to 8, Yunnan's airports handled over 1.82 million passengers, with a total of 12,808 flight takeoffs and landings, and cargo volume exceeding 10,700 tons, showing year-on-year increases of 2.95%, 4.92%, and 15.80% respectively [1] - Yunnan is recognized as a significant gateway to South Asia and Southeast Asia, benefiting from its favorable climate and rich tourism resources, making it a popular destination for travel and residence [1] - The recovery of international and regional flight routes is notable, with increased frequency on routes such as Kunming to Bangkok, and high passenger traffic on routes to Kuala Lumpur, Penang, and Sabah, establishing them as important channels for cross-border tourism [1] Industry Developments - Airports in Yunnan have been renovated and enhanced for the holiday period, featuring immersive cultural experiences and local traditions, such as the "Pu'er Life Experience Zone" at Kunming Changshui International Airport and the integration of Mid-Autumn Festival traditions with Dai culture at Xishuangbanna Gasa International Airport [2] - The artistic performance "Wanjing" at Diqing Shangri-La Airport showcases national sentiment through sign language dance, while staff at various airports don ethnic costumes, combining warm service with regional characteristics, enhancing the overall travel experience [2]

Core Insights - During the 2025 National Day Golden Week, China's tourism consumption demand showed significant resilience, with a year-on-year increase in nationwide travel volume, particularly in eastern cities like Shanghai and Nanjing [3] - The southern and western regions experienced slightly weaker performance due to weather factors, but self-driving trips and scenic area visits continued to rise, leading to a notable improvement in hotel occupancy rates, with some areas achieving record high RevPAR [3] - Retail and dining sectors recorded steady growth during the holiday, indicating a rational consumer behavior leaning towards mid-to-high-end experiences, with larger brands and companies demonstrating stronger performance elasticity amid industry competition [3] - Short trips and day tours became mainstream, while some traditionally popular tourist destinations like Hainan saw slow recovery due to weather impacts [3] - Huazhu Group, as an industry leader, has a dense layout in high-demand areas, achieving significant increases in occupancy rates and revenue per room during the Golden Week, benefiting from the tourism recovery [3] - The group's efficient operations and multi-brand strategy are expected to help it maintain a leading position amid the upgrading of domestic consumption structures [3]

8月初，两名马来西亚游客在曼谷市中心被当街纵火烧伤，引起了国际社会的广泛关注。从电诈到绑 架，中国游客在泰遭遇的新闻屡屡冲击舆论。近期，泰国与柬埔寨的边界争端持续不断，也影响泰国作 为安全友好目的地的国际形象。 对于像泰国这样严重依赖出口的经济体来说，旅游业实现复苏对经济稳定至关重要。泰国新任总理阿努 廷将应对泰铢过快升值列为护航出口与旅游的紧急任务之一。多家媒体称政府与央行将协调应对，避免 旺季前"价格过高"打击来客。 泰国正积极向海外游客派发各类优惠券，这些优惠券可在酒店、商店和餐厅使用，旨在鼓励消费。此 外，泰国还将推出针对淡季的重点活动与特别优惠，丰富旅游产品吸引游客。 【环球时报驻泰国特派记者 张矜若】泰国旅游与体育部16日发布报告称，今年1月1日至9月14日，入境 泰国的外国游客2300万人，较去年同期下降7.08%。泰国国家发展规划署也早早"认输"，在8月就将今年 外国游客到访人数预测从3700万人次下调至3300万人次，远低于2019年创下的4000万人次纪录。 旅游行业媒体报道称，导致该现象出现的最重要因素是泰国国内旅游成本的上涨。疫情过后，酒店、餐 饮和交通服务价格上涨，令许多游客质疑泰国 ...

Core Insights - Ctrip (TCOM.US) experienced a significant increase of over 12%, closing at $73.22 [1] - The company reported a net revenue of RMB 14.843 billion for Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.22% [1] - Ctrip's net profit attributable to the company was RMB 4.846 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.43% [1] Business Performance - The international business segments of Ctrip continued to show strong growth in Q2 [1] - Total bookings on the international OTA platform increased by over 60% year-on-year [1] - Bookings for inbound tourism surged by over 100% year-on-year [1] - Bookings for outbound hotels and flights have surpassed 120% of the levels seen in the same period before the pandemic in 2019 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates a gradual recovery for China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696), expressing optimism about its system integration business, but anticipates a slow recovery for international airlines. Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been lowered by 4% to 5% due to slower-than-expected tourism recovery. Earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 16% to 17% reflecting underperformance in the first half of 2025. The "Buy" rating is maintained, with the target price adjusted from HKD 13.5 to HKD 13 [1] Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 4% to 5% due to slower tourism recovery [1] - Earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 have been lowered by 16% to 17% reflecting disappointing performance in the first half of 2025 [1] Business Performance and Cost Management - The management noted that several changes in the post-pandemic period have impacted recent profitability, including low processing volumes from international airlines, which previously had higher average prices and profit margins compared to domestic airlines [1] - System integration business contributes approximately 20% to revenue (down from double-digit figures pre-pandemic) [1] - Employee costs are projected to exceed RMB 2 billion for 2023 to 2024, compared to an average of RMB 1.8 billion from 2017 to 2019 [1] Operational Leverage and Cost Control - Despite the revenue forecast adjustments, the company retains significant operational leverage potential, as fixed costs account for 60% to 70% of total operating costs [1] - Daiwa emphasizes that management has intensified cost control efforts, particularly regarding employee costs, to enhance profitability [1]

Group 1 - The overall travel industry performance is expected to improve compared to initial expectations, despite current travel data being below 2024 levels [1] - The recovery progress within the industry is uneven, with international travel demand remaining robust, but hotel bookings (including alternative accommodations) showing a slowdown in July [1] - Airbnb reported a better-than-expected Q3 outlook, driven by strong summer travel demand, but warned that growth may be difficult to maintain later in the year due to a high base from the previous year [1] Group 2 - Booking Holdings experienced healthy demand growth in the European market, but the growth rate is continuously slowing, with July booking nights increasing by 5%, down from 10% in Q2 [1] - The travel trends outside the U.S. have weakened compared to Q2, with Q3 booking nights growth expected to decline from 7.7% in Q2 to 5.5% [1] - Expedia's travel trends are more optimistic than initially expected, with July alternative accommodation booking nights growth declining by about 300 basis points to 1% [2]