Domestic Observations - Travel demand during the holiday period is significantly higher than the same period last year, with overall air ticket prices also elevated compared to last year [11][15] - The tourism market is experiencing a "volume and price increase," with customized and self-driving tours focusing on experiential aspects [17][21] - The total box office for the National Day film season has exceeded 1.7 billion yuan, slightly lower than the overall level of the same period last year [21] Overseas Observations - The U.S. government is in a "shutdown" due to the failure to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill [25] - The U.S. September ADP employment data and ISM data have been released, reinforcing expectations for an interest rate cut in October [26] - Japan is set to welcome its first female Prime Minister, with the election of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [29] Market Observations - The Nikkei 225 index recorded a 6.70% increase during the holiday, leading global equity markets, while Taiwan and South Korea also saw significant gains of 3.64% [31] - Commodity prices for copper, silver, and gold have risen, with copper prices boosted by the shutdown of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and strong demand from AI data centers [34] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slightly up by 0.38% and 0.19% respectively [31] Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a "red October," as historical trends suggest a strong market performance following the National Day holiday [39] - Current recommendations include maintaining positions in sectors such as technology, energy storage, satellite connectivity, and commercial aerospace, while also considering cyclical sectors that may have lower visibility [43] - Attention is drawn to the favorable conditions for non-ferrous metals due to the price increases in copper, silver, and gold during the holiday [43]

Group 1 - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan has significant implications for both domestic and international politics [2][28] - Following Takaichi's election, the Japanese stock market experienced a surge, with the Nikkei index rising by 2,175.26 points, or 4.75%, reaching a historical high of 47,944.76 points [4][5] - The broader Topix index also saw an increase of 96.89 points, or 3.10%, closing at 3,226.06 points, marking another record [6] Group 2 - The rise in the stock market is attributed to expectations that Takaichi's government will implement expansionary fiscal policies, viewed as a continuation of "Abenomics" [12][13] - Takaichi's proposed policies include tax cuts, economic stimulus, and government investment aimed at doubling Japan's economic size within ten years, which has encouraged foreign investment in stock index futures [15][21] - Specific companies, such as Fujikura, have seen significant stock price increases, with a rise of over 7% on the day of Takaichi's election and a total increase of over 100% since 2025 [17][18] Group 3 - In contrast to the stock market's performance, the Japanese yen experienced a sharp decline, trading at around 150 to 150.5 yen per dollar, marking a two-month low [8][10] - The depreciation of the yen is linked to anticipated expansionary fiscal policies that may increase inflationary pressures, leading to a sell-off of yen in favor of other currencies [24][26] - Takaichi's conservative political stance and potential military policy changes have raised concerns about Japan's future defense posture and its implications for regional stability [26][28] Group 4 - The leadership changes within the LDP following Takaichi's election, including the appointments of key figures like Taro Aso and Shunichi Suzuki, will influence the government's policy direction [28] - The overall economic and political landscape in Japan is expected to undergo significant changes due to Takaichi's leadership, with potential impacts on economic growth and international relations [28][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market surged following the election of Kishi Mako as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, driven by expectations of continued fiscal spending and monetary easing under her leadership [1][3][19] Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 4.8% and the Topix index increased by 3.1%, both reaching historical highs [1] - The market's enthusiasm is attributed to the belief that Kishi will maintain expansive fiscal policies, as investors seek returns in the stock market due to limited alternatives [3][19] Currency and Bond Market Impact - The Japanese yen depreciated by 1.5% against the US dollar, nearing the critical psychological level of 150, and hit a historical low against the euro [5] - Predictions from major institutions suggest the yen could further weaken to the 150-160 range [5] - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds rose to 3.29%, a record high, while the 40-year bond yield increased by 14 basis points to 3.52% [5] Economic Concerns - The depreciation of the yen poses a dual challenge for Japan, as it increases import costs for a resource-poor nation, leading to higher living expenses for citizens [7][8] - Kishi's economic policies lack clarity, particularly regarding funding for subsidies to combat rising prices [13] Political Landscape - Kishi's election reflects a preference for stability over change, but her political foundation is precarious due to the tarnished reputation of the Abe faction [15][19] - The upcoming challenges include managing inflation while attempting to stimulate the economy, creating a potential policy dilemma [17][19] Market Sustainability - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the stock market rally, suggesting it may be a short-term emotional response rather than a reflection of long-term economic improvement [17] - The core contradiction Kishi faces is the need for fiscal stimulus amidst rising inflation, which could lead to a cycle of economic stagnation [17][19]

Group 1: Overseas Market Performance - From October 1 to October 7, global stock markets mostly rose, with the Nikkei 225 leading gains at 4.75% due to expectations of monetary and fiscal easing from the new Japanese leadership[8] - Major commodities saw increases, with gold rising 3.09% and copper up 4.17%, while crude oil fell by 1.33% during the holiday period[9] - The U.S. government shutdown did not significantly impact the stock market, but it raised expectations for a potential interest rate cut in October[9] Group 2: Domestic Consumption Performance - During the holiday, a total of 2.068 billion people traveled across regions, a year-on-year increase of 5.19%, with self-driving trips accounting for 79.81% of the total[13] - Daily average box office revenue was 247 million yuan, down 17.99% year-on-year, with average daily moviegoers at 6.718 million, a decrease of 9.72%[20] - New home sales in 30 major cities totaled 391,500 square meters, down 17.54% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate market[22] Group 3: Economic Data and Events - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, showing a slight recovery, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.0%[23] - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1 due to budget disagreements, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[31] - High-profile political changes in Japan, with the election of Fumio Kishida as the new Liberal Democratic Party president, may influence future monetary policy[33]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected victory of Takashi Sannae in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election has led to a trend of yen depreciation in the foreign exchange market, with the yen falling to the 152 yen per dollar range, raising concerns about potential further depreciation [2][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Takashi's election, several foreign financial institutions retracted their "buy yen" recommendations, citing increased uncertainty regarding the timing of the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [4]. - Speculative funds that had previously bet on yen appreciation were forced to close some of their long positions, resulting in the yen's decline to the mid-150 yen per dollar range [6]. Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Takashi is viewed as a successor to the "Abenomics" approach, which combines financial and fiscal policies, leading to expectations of a weaker yen [6]. - Predictions suggest that the yen's depreciation may be limited to around 155 yen per dollar, influenced by fiscal policy scenarios and the relationship between long-term bond yields and the yen exchange rate [8][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Bond Yields - If Takashi implements her proposed fiscal measures, such as gasoline tax cuts and additional tax rebates, the 30-year bond yield could rise by approximately 0.15%, potentially increasing the term premium and affecting the yen's value [8]. - The term premium has been rising, with a noted correlation between the increase in the term premium and the depreciation of the yen, particularly during the recent upper house elections [7]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The market is closely watching the appointment of the next Japanese finance minister, as changes in government could impact fiscal policy direction and the yen's trajectory [11]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that extreme yen depreciation is unlikely, as Takashi is perceived to distance herself from excessive fiscal expansion, supported by comments from her close associates [10].

刚刚赢得选举的高市早苗，其潜在弱点逐渐暴露出来，与此同时，特朗普在贺文中犯了错误，而中国则迅速采取了行动。那么，高市早苗的真正挑战在哪 里？她的立场又会对日本带来什么影响呢？ 因此，特朗普在高市当选后不久便发表了祝贺声明，称她是"智慧而有力量的女性"。然而，特朗普的这条推文暴露了他对日本政治制度的不了解，因为他写 道"日本刚选出首位女首相"，但事实上，高市早苗还只是自民党总裁，并未正式成为首相。特朗普的这一失误不仅引发了日本媒体的嘲笑，也被视为对日本 内政的干涉。 自民党总裁选举刚结束后，市场表现出了强烈的反应。在高市早苗当选后的第一个交易日，日本股市飙升5%，创下了47000点的历史新高，仿佛资本市场在 为她庆祝。然而，日元却迅速贬值，兑美元的汇率跌破了150大关，同时，长期国债收益率也飙升至2008年以来的新高。这种股市的兴奋与债市的忧虑，反 映了高市经济政策中潜在的风险。 高市早苗的经济主张可以归结为"安倍经济学"的延续，她提出要继续实施宽松的货币政策并增加财政支出，甚至强调要用"更多的钱"来刺激经济。然而，目 前的日本已经不再是通货紧缩的时代。连续三年的通胀维持在大约3%，而能源、粮食和原材料价格居高 ...

证券研究报告|宏观专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 金属股带动，喜迎"开门红" [Table_Title2] ——双节假期国内外重要信息分析 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ► 复盘：大类资产表现 美股：美股市场在科技板块强劲表现推动下三大指数集体上涨。市场受 对美联储降息预期及企业盈利乐观情绪支撑，政府停摆的影响被淡化。 日股：市场预期日本新首相将重拾安倍经济政策（宽货币+宽财政），日 经股指显著上涨，日元大幅贬值，推升美元指数。 港股：国庆期间，港股整体缩量震荡，恒指、恒科收涨，指数在 10 月 2 日创四年新高。南向资金持续流入科技、创新药、有色板块，推动港股市 场整体估值修复。 商品：黄金方面，受美国政府停摆引发避险需求升温，进一步推升金价， 纽约金价突破 4000 美元/盎司大关；铜价方面，供应端的多重冲击，加剧 了全球铜供应紧张局势，推动铜价持续走高。 ► 假期出行消费平稳增长，美国政府再陷停摆困境 1）"双节"假期，出行人数和商贸零售数据小幅增长，热门城市及景点 人气较旺；观影人次及票房不及预期；商品房销售平淡。 2）美 ...

[Table_Title] 国庆假期不能错过的事 [Table_Summary] ►海外三大事件影响市场 二是出游消费"量胜于价"，电影票房同比降 20%。 2025 年国庆假期旅游市场延续复苏格局，全国大部分省市客 流热度普遍高于去年同期，其中中西部省份增长动能尤为强 劲。但从消费端看，人均消费水平的复苏幅度弱于客流增 长，体现出"价"相对滞后于"量"。与旅游市场的暖意不 同，2025 年国庆档电影票房表现较弱，核心原因或在于内容 供给不足。电影市场整体呈现"量价齐降"。从票仓结构来 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 08 日 评级及分析师信息 国庆期间，海外大事不断，三个事件深刻影响市场走 向。一是美国政府关门，参议院两党未就临时拨款法案达成 共识，联邦政府从 10月 1日开始关门。本应于 10月 3日（周 五）发布的非农数据也因关门而推迟。 二是日本自民党总裁选举落地，10 月 4 日高市早苗击败 小泉进次郎，可能很快接任首相。高市早苗政策继承自安 倍，或倾向于推动积极财政、货币宽松。因而日本加息预期 推迟。 三是法国总理辞职，10 月 6日担任总理仅 27 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the US government shutdown on asset prices, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger precious metals, alongside a slight increase in easing expectations due to weakened economic growth forecasts [2][5][11] - The election of high-profile political figures in Japan is expected to bring back "Abenomics," which may lead to fiscal stimulus and a slowdown in interest rate hikes, resulting in a weaker yen and a steepening of Japanese bond yields [3][11][12] Group 2 - The report maintains a positive outlook for the fourth quarter and the year-end market, with expectations that the technology sector will continue to drive market trends more than cyclical catalysts until spring 2026 [15][16] - It anticipates that the spring of 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including a critical verification period for demand and potential delays in the emergence of new market phases [15][16] Group 3 - The focus remains on technology sectors such as AI applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and storage, with a noted upward trend in overseas computing power despite short-term disturbances [16][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of anti-involution as a key structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [17][18] Group 4 - The report suggests that Hong Kong stocks may continue to benefit from global easing and the trends in new economy industries, with strong representation from leading companies in the market [18][19] - It highlights the ongoing strength in precious metals and copper as key investment areas, while also noting the potential for price increases in these commodities due to supply disruptions [16][17]

Core Points - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks a historic moment for Japan, with potential implications for her becoming the first female Prime Minister [1][4] - Takaichi's victory reflects the LDP's desire for stability, as she plans to continue the "Abenomics" policies initiated by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe [5][6] Group 1 - Takaichi's election signifies a shift in leadership within the LDP, with her commitment to the "Abe route" indicating a return to previous economic and foreign policies [6][8] - The LDP's choice of Takaichi, who has a strong public profile and clear political stance, suggests a strategic move to enhance the party's visibility and electoral appeal [5][6] - Takaichi's administration is expected to focus on active fiscal and monetary policies, constitutional amendments, and revitalizing local economies, while also strengthening Japan's alliances, particularly with the U.S. [6][7] Group 2 - Takaichi's leadership may lead to a return to the dynamics of U.S.-Japan relations seen during the Trump administration, with potential economic pressures from the U.S. [7][8] - The absence of major national elections in the next two years provides Takaichi a "golden period" to implement policies without immediate electoral pressures, but her ability to navigate the LDP's minority status in the Diet will be crucial [8] - The success of Takaichi's administration will depend on her ability to gain support from opposition parties on key issues, as failure to do so could lead to political stagnation and challenges to her leadership [8]