Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold interest rates steady in light of unexpectedly high GDP growth of 8.2% and low CPI inflation of 0.3% for October, leading to a reassessment of economic forecasts [1][3][4]. Economic Indicators - The October CPI inflation rate was reported at 0.3%, which is significantly below expectations, indicating a benign inflation environment [1][3]. - The GDP growth rate for the same period was 8.2%, surpassing the RBI's own estimate of 7% and the market expectation of 7.4%, prompting a revision of growth forecasts [3][10]. Monetary Policy Implications - The RBI is likely to revise its GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2026 to an average of 7.2%, which is 40 basis points higher than previous estimates [3][4]. - The inflation forecast for the financial year 2026 is expected to be revised down to around 2%, compared to the current forecast of 2.6% [4][12]. Market Reactions - The RBI is anticipated to adopt a neutral stance with a dovish pause, potentially implementing non-rate measures to ensure bond market stability and liquidity [5][6]. - There is a recognition of the divergence in economic data interpretations among economists, but the RBI will base its decisions on the available data, regardless of its credibility concerns [11][12].

Group 1 - The World Bank reports that developing countries face an unprecedented debt repayment gap and new financing needs totaling $741 billion from 2022 to 2024, with interest payments reaching historical highs [1] - The EU plans to introduce the "Industrial Acceleration Act," which mandates that local content for critical products like cars and batteries must reach up to 70%, supported by government subsidies [2] - The Eurozone's November composite PMI was revised up to 52.8, the highest level in 30 months, driven by growth in the services sector, indicating signs of economic recovery in the region [2] Group 2 - Australia's Q3 GDP grew by 2.1% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of market expectations [3] - South Korea's Q3 real GDP grew by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations [4] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 408.44 points to close at 47,882.90, an increase of 0.86%; the S&P 500 gained 20.35 points to close at 6,849.72, up 0.30%; the Nasdaq Composite increased by 40.42 points to close at 23,454.09, a rise of 0.17% [5] - Light crude oil futures for January 2026 rose by $0.31 to $58.95 per barrel, an increase of 0.53%; February Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.22 to $62.67 per barrel, up 0.35% [5] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.33% to $4,234.8 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 0.39% to $58.93 per ounce [6] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.51% to close at 98.855, with the euro trading at 1.1672 dollars and the British pound at 1.3350 dollars, both higher than the previous trading day [7]

每经AI快讯，12月3日，澳大利亚第三季度GDP环比增长0.4%，预估为0.7%；同比增长2.1%，预估为 2.2%。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月3日，韩国第三季度GDP同比增长1.8%，预估为1.7%。 ...

（责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【风险提示】根据外汇管理相关规定，买卖外汇应在银行等国家规定的交易场所进行。私自买卖外汇、 变相买卖外汇、倒买倒卖外汇或者非法介绍买卖外汇数额较大的，由外汇管理机关依法予以行政处罚； 构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。 每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，11月28日消息，加拿大9月GDP环比增长0.2%，预期增长0.2%，前值由-0.30%修正 为-0.1%。 ...

每经AI快讯，11月28日，据瑞典统计局，第三季度GDP同比增长2.6%，高于初步估计的2.4%。 ...

Economic Growth - The GDP of Kyrgyzstan reached 14,274 billion som (approximately 16.4 billion USD) from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [1] - The industrial sector grew by 9.8%, while the construction sector saw a significant increase of 27.7% [1] - The agricultural sector experienced a growth of 2%, and the services sector grew by 8.8% [1] Investment and Production - Fixed asset investment increased by 18.9% [1] - The production of goods rose by 11.3%, and net tax revenue grew by 10.8% [1] - The share of the services sector accounted for 49.6%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Sectoral Contributions - The share of goods production increased by 1.8 percentage points to 35.4% [1] - The construction sector's share rose by 1.2 percentage points, while the industrial sector's share increased by 1 percentage point [1] - The agricultural sector's share decreased by 0.4 percentage points [1] Trade Performance - The total goods export and import amounted to 11.27 billion USD from January to September, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.3%, with exports down by 25.7% and imports down by 3% [1] - Trade with member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union totaled 3.84 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1]

在美联储即将于12月9日至10日召开政策会议之前，最新公布的经济数据似乎难以改变决策者内部的分 歧。尽管CME FedWatch显示市场押注明显偏向鸽派，12月会议降息25个基点的概率高达85%，多位官 员近期讲话显示，他们对于通胀与就业孰为当前最大风险仍存在激烈争论。 受政府停摆影响，美联储一向依赖的数据基础在过去数周变得支离破碎，只能依据有限的经济信息做判 断。周二公布的一批延迟发布的数据虽填补部分空白，却未能提供明确方向。 接下来最有可能影响美联储判断的将是周三公布的褐皮书以及持续更新的初次申请失业救济人数。 LPL Financial首席经济学家Jeff Roach特别关注企业是否继续选择自行吸收关税成本，而非将其转嫁给 消费者。此举曾帮助抑制通胀，若仍持续，可能意味着当前更大的经济风险来自"疲弱的劳动力市场"。 Clark也指出，褐皮书中若出现更多裁员提及，将对部分官员产生影响。由于联邦数据缺失，一些决策 者会比以往更加依赖来自各联储地区的实时企业反馈。 每周失业金申领数据亦至关重要，因为这项高频数据在新冠疫情期间也能保持更新。Clark称："如果劳 动力市场出现真正显著恶化，我们会在这里看到。但目 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's analysis predicts that the Bank of Korea will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% during the monetary policy meeting on the 28th, due to a complex macroeconomic environment and multiple policy constraints [1] Internal Pressures - The Bank of Korea is cautious about further easing monetary policy, primarily due to three internal pressures: high household debt levels, upward risks in the real estate market, and recent signs of rising inflation [1] - These factors collectively strengthen financial stability considerations, limiting the space for interest rate cuts [1] External Environment - The external environment also diminishes the necessity for an immediate shift to a more accommodative policy [1] - The weakening of the Korean won raises concerns about imported inflation [1] - Additionally, South Korea's GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, indicating some inherent economic resilience, which reduces the urgency for rate cuts to stimulate growth [1]

Core Insights - The analysis indicates that the Trump administration's significant fiscal legislation will drive economic growth next year, although this impact will be partially offset by the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates than would otherwise be the case [1] - The federal deficit is projected to overshadow GDP growth [1] - An estimated additional $100 billion in tax refunds expected early next year is anticipated to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage points to economic growth in the first half of the year [1]