Group 1 - The report indicates that the British pound is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with a preliminary target price of around 1.36 [2] - Recent economic data from the UK shows that the GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% [2] - The GBP/USD exchange rate is projected to reach 1.38 by the end of 2025, supported by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent fluctuations in the US dollar have impacted the short-term outlook for the British pound, which is expected to trade between 1.3433 and 1.363 [2] - The report maintains a neutral to positive outlook for the British pound in the second half of the year, benefiting from the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices have been fluctuating upwards, recently rebounding by $30 to break through the $3400 mark, but facing resistance and adjustments [1][6][12] - The market is currently in a rebound trend, with key support levels at $3384 and $3350, while resistance levels are at $3408 and $3438 [12][13] - The gold market has experienced four consecutive months of gains, but is now entering a period of consolidation, oscillating between $3300 and $3400 [12] Group 2 - Recent factors influencing gold prices include rising inflation expectations in the U.S., driven by tariff impacts and increased consumer confidence, alongside strong Japanese bond yields leading to a sell-off [13] - The upcoming U.S. unemployment claims data and second-quarter GDP figures are expected to significantly impact the labor market and economic outlook, which could influence Federal Reserve decisions [14] - The U.S. sovereign credit is facing unprecedented challenges, raising questions about the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency [15]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the potential dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its ability to make data-driven decisions free from political pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Legal and Historical Context - According to the Federal Reserve Act, the President can nominate Fed governors, but the legal protections against their dismissal are stringent, making Trump's threats more of a political maneuver than a feasible legal action [3]. - Historically, no president has successfully dismissed a Fed governor to alter monetary policy, indicating that Trump's actions may be aimed at exerting political pressure rather than achieving actual change [3]. Group 2: Challenges to Fed Independence - Continuous public attacks and threats from Trump could create a "chilling effect" on other Fed officials, leading to hesitance in making necessary but unpopular decisions [5]. - The credibility and trust in the Fed could be undermined if the market perceives its decisions as influenced by political pressures, which would weaken its ability to guide market expectations [5]. - If such pressure tactics are not firmly resisted, it could set a dangerous precedent for future presidents to influence monetary policy through intimidation [5]. Group 3: Implications for Interest Rate Decisions - With slowing job growth, Fed Chair Powell has hinted at potential rate cuts, but high tariffs and budget deficits may keep rates elevated [7]. - Traders anticipate that the Fed may cut rates five times by the end of next year, each by 0.25 percentage points, reflecting market expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [7]. - The Fed may emphasize its independence in upcoming meetings, potentially adopting a more hawkish tone to counter political interference [7]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The dollar may weaken as any erosion of the Fed's independence could undermine its status as a global reserve currency, raising concerns about a politically influenced Fed maintaining low rates [9]. - Short-term, Trump's pressure could lead to quicker and larger rate cuts, benefiting the stock market, particularly interest-sensitive sectors like technology [9]. - Long-term, rising inflation expectations could drive up long-term bond yields, as investors demand higher returns to compensate for inflation risks [9]. Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Short-term, faster rate cuts by the Fed could boost demand for non-yielding gold, especially if inflation risks materialize [12]. - However, if aggressive rate cuts lead to soaring inflation, the Fed may need to raise rates sharply in the future, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Overall, Trump's actions introduce a new "political intervention risk premium" into the market, with short-term benefits from rate cuts potentially overshadowed by long-term risks associated with a compromised central bank [12].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,386 after testing the overnight high near $3,400, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks [1] - The market is reacting to President Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence, which has increased gold's short-term appeal [1][3] - The U.S. dollar experienced fluctuations, reaching a three-week high of 98.72 before closing at approximately 98.17, impacting gold prices [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have shown mixed movements, with the two-year yield dropping to a four-month low of 3.625%, while the 30-year yield rose to 4.915%, indicating a steepening yield curve that suggests expectations of economic recovery [1][3] Market Sentiment - Political uncertainty has become a significant catalyst for gold prices, with Trump's actions leading to a spike in gold to a two-week high [3] - The market is closely monitoring the interaction between geopolitical events and economic data to identify potential market movements [3] - The Fed's independence is under unprecedented scrutiny, directly affecting confidence in the gold market [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, which supports gold's resilience [4] - New York Fed President Williams emphasized that any rate cut will depend on upcoming economic data, adding uncertainty to the Fed's stance [4] - The Fed's policy fluctuations are viewed as a "ticking time bomb" for the gold market, with Trump's interventions potentially amplifying signals for monetary easing [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices recorded a bullish close, continuing to challenge the $3,400 level, with short-term support identified around $3,360 and $3,345 [6] - The recent price action indicates a rebound from a low of $3,320, with ongoing attempts to break through the $3,400 resistance level [6] Trading Strategy - A short position is recommended below $3,400 with a stop loss at $3,407 and a target around $3,365 to $3,345 [7] - Aggressive traders may consider entering near $3,393 with similar stop loss and take profit levels [7]

Core Insights - The US dollar index showed a typical inverted V-shape pattern, closing slightly down by 0.06% at 98.147 points [2][3] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, experienced upward momentum due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, with gold rising by 0.11% to $3397.46 per ounce and silver increasing by 0.12% to $38.61 per ounce [2][3] Market Overview - The dollar index displayed a stable trend, influenced by uncertainties surrounding the frequent changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership and a data-dependent monetary policy stance, leading to doubts about the independence of monetary policy and future interest rate cuts [3] - Progress in tariff agreements between the US and Europe, along with positive negotiations regarding auto tariffs with Japan, may alleviate current trade tensions [3] - However, US pressure on India to cease oil transactions with Russia in exchange for tariff relief poses a potential risk of reigniting trade conflicts, which could lead to significant volatility in the precious metals market [3] Economic Context - The global economic landscape is delicately balanced, with varying policy adjustments from central banks and intertwined geopolitical risks and trade disputes [3] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant and closely monitor changes in policy indicators and international trade dynamics, as minor policy adjustments or unexpected events could disrupt market equilibrium and lead to substantial asset price fluctuations [3] Trading Strategy - The demand for precious metals as a safe haven is supported by policy uncertainty and geopolitical trade risks, but specific trends will depend on forthcoming US economic data and policy signals [4] - In the short term, precious metals are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with gold anticipated to outperform silver [4] - Key technical levels to watch include the $3450 per ounce resistance for gold and the $39 per ounce resistance for silver, with potential upward momentum if these levels are effectively breached [4]

Core Insights - Gold prices fell into negative territory during European trading on August 28, influenced by a strong rebound in the dollar and profit-taking, retreating from a high of approximately $3,400 over the past three weeks [1] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which provided support for gold prices as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - Despite silver failing to maintain gains above $40 per ounce, some fund managers noted its significant upward momentum, suggesting a potential return to historical highs set in 2011 [1] Economic Indicators - Traders are awaiting the second estimate of U.S. GDP, with expectations of a 3.1% annual growth rate for Q2, which could impact the dollar and commodity prices [2] - Attention will shift to U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for clues on interest rate cuts [2] Market Sentiment - Analysts expressed strong interest in gold due to issues surrounding institutional trust and potential risks to the Federal Reserve's independence [2] - The New York Fed President emphasized the importance of central bank independence amid Trump's intervention in monetary policy [2] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting are nearly 87% [3] - If PCE data does not reflect strong inflation, doubts may arise regarding the Fed's ability to implement rate cuts in September [3] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold prices lost momentum but remain supported above the 100-day EMA, with a resistance level at $3,410 [3] - A decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a target of $3,439, while initial support is at $3,351 [3] Technical Analysis - Silver - Silver prices faced pressure after failing to sustain a breakout above a symmetrical triangle pattern, with key support around $38.13 [4] - A breakdown below this support could invalidate recent bullish momentum, while resistance levels are at $38.63 and $39.06 [4]

8月25日，一封突如其来的公开信在全球金融圈掀起轩然大波。信件宣布美国总统特朗普正式解雇美联 储理事丽莎·库克，这一决定打破了长达112年的制度禁忌。在此之前，没有任何总统敢轻易触碰美联储 理事的职位。更令人瞠目结舌的是，特朗普给出的理由竟然仅仅与"两套房产"相关。这一举动立刻引发 国际震动，美元指数迅速下跌，黄金价格大幅飙升，市场瞬间进入避险模式，投资者普遍认为这标志着 对美国制度公信力的一次深刻重估，美元霸权的根基正在遭遇挑战。 一旦形成多数派，特朗普不仅能直接掌控美联储理事会的决策，还能间接影响12位地区联储主席的任命 与续任，这最终将改变联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的结构，进而决定美国利率政策的走向。这意味 着，美联储赖以维持的独立地位将彻底动摇，货币政策或将沦为总统个人意志的工具。 面对前所未有的压力，库克并未退缩。作为由拜登提名并历史上首位进入美联储理事会的黑人女性，她 在声明中明确表示特朗普无权解雇她，现行法律并不存在所谓"因故罢免"的正当理由。她强调将继续履 行职责，不会因所谓"霸凌"或网络舆论而选择退让。她的律师团队也迅速回应，称将采取一切法律手段 阻止这一"非法行动"。国会内部随即出现分 ...

在特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克后，对美联储独立性的担忧持续存在，美元下跌。德意志银行分析 师在一份报告中说，这些担忧促使投资者消化了更快的降息和更高的通胀。与此同时，报道称，特朗普 周三解雇了铁路监管机构地面运输委员会成员罗伯特·普里莫斯。此举加剧了人们对特朗普试图控制独 立政府机构的担忧。此外，美国财政部长贝森特表示，下一任美联储主席的人选将在秋季揭晓。他还重 申了对美联储进行内部审查的呼吁。 来源：滚动播报 ...

因为工资并不能支撑起所谓的"诗与远方"，我只好依靠写文章来获得一些兼职收入。如果觉得文章内容 还算可以，希望您至少能赞赏一元钱。这一元钱对您而言不算什么，不会让您贫穷；对我来说也不算什 么，不会因此突然富有。但它能让我记住您的支持，让我在继续写作的路上更有动力。 第一件事，是他解雇了美联储的一位理事。表面上看，这是因为该理事在获取贷款时涉嫌不当行为；但 业内人士指出，这很可能并非表面理由，而是特朗普在有意削弱美联储独立性的一种政治手段。众所周 知，美联储是美国金融体系的核心机构，其独立性极为重要。然而特朗普似乎始终不理解，作为总统， 为什么有个机构竟然可以不听他的直接指令？在他看来，美国应该像俄罗斯那样，总统就是绝对的核 心，说一不二，政府与金融机构完全由自己掌控。他这种思路，简直就是在试图把美联储这个"独立王 国"一点点掏空，令人担忧。 第二件事，则更加令人震惊。特朗普通过政府的力量强行介入英特尔，要求政府入股约10%的股份，并 自豪地宣称这是"为美国赚了上百亿美元"。他说，有人觉得这样做"可耻"，但他认为这就是"生意"。这 番言论在美国历史上几乎前所未有。美国长期强调自由市场经济，政府通常避免直接干预企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, and domestic copper opened lower and fluctuated narrowly with the domestic spot import window continuously open. Concerns about the Fed's independence may increase expectations of monetary policy easing. Seasonal off - peak is ending, downstream orders may improve, and scrap copper substitution is favorable. There is a possibility of inventory replenishment in China, which may drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's resumption of production increases, with accumulating warehouse receipts and over - supply expectations. Cost support is strengthening, so it is in a weak but limited - decline pattern. The inflow of aluminum ingots in main sales areas in China is decreasing, and downstream stocking is increasing. Whether it is a cyclical inflection point needs verification [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Overall, the fundamentals have little change, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and prices are likely to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 75 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME and COMEX copper changed. The total social inventory increased by 0.8 tons. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the inventory of LME decreased by 4075 tons, while the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 74 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 tons. The active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 72 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt decreased by 61 tons. The social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.2%. The LME inventory decreased by 5500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74 tons. The active contract import loss changed [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.8%. The LME inventory increased by 145 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 301 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and his team has won many awards [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and providing timely market information [49].