米兰在当地时间周一深夜获得快速确认，意味着他将出席周二在华盛顿召开的备受市场期待的联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。米兰曾表示一旦获得确认，计划从白宫经济顾问委员会主席职位上申 请无薪休假，但迄今未承诺辞去该职务。 SHMET 网讯：美国参议院周一确认了美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事人选史蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran），此时距美联储召开议息会议考虑是否降息仅剩一天。 市场普遍预期美联储将宣布自2024年12月以来首次降息，但降息幅度仍存悬念。美联储主席鲍威尔 至今顶住了总统特朗普的施压攻势，但他在上月暗示经济状况——包括关税政策引发的不确定性，可能 需要在9月会议上降息。 米兰本周不太可能成为降息决定的关键投票。在7月下旬的上次会议上，FOMC成员以9比2的投票 结果决定维持利率不变。但批评人士指出，米兰可能试图影响委员会成员。他们警告称，米兰同时担任 白宫高级顾问的身份，将损害央行相对于特朗普政府的独立性。 这一前景加剧了民主党人和部分经济学家的担忧：若白宫任命官员在为总统服务的同时担任美联储 的"独立"理事，美联储独立性将面临威胁。参议院银行委员会首席成员、马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽 莎白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board and the anticipated interest rate cuts in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [3][5][6]. Federal Reserve Developments - The U.S. Senate confirmed Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, allowing him to participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting [5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is reported at 95.9%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is at 4.1% [3][6]. - For October, the cumulative probabilities for rate cuts are 23.1% for 25 basis points, 73.8% for 50 basis points, and 3.1% for 75 basis points [6]. Market Reactions - Following the anticipation of rate cuts, U.S. stock indices saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.11%, S&P 500 up 0.47%, and Nasdaq up 0.94%, marking new closing highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [7]. - Major tech stocks, including Google and Tesla, experienced significant increases, with Google rising over 4% [7]. Political Context - President Trump threatened to declare a national emergency in response to local governance issues in Washington, D.C., indicating potential federal intervention [8]. - Trump's comments on deploying the National Guard in Memphis to combat crime have faced local opposition, highlighting tensions between federal and local authorities [11].

Core Points - Stephen Miran has been confirmed as a Federal Reserve Board member, allowing him to participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting and vote on interest rate decisions [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but Miran's presence may shift the voting dynamics towards a potential 50 basis point cut, aligning with the White House's calls for more aggressive monetary easing [1][3] - Miran's appointment raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially given the Trump administration's pressure for significant monetary policy loosening [3] Summary by Sections Appointment and Confirmation - Miran's confirmation by the Senate allows him to join the FOMC meeting starting Tuesday, potentially setting a record for the fastest transition from confirmation to participation in a rate-setting meeting [2] - He fills the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, whose term ended in August, and will serve until January 2026 [1] Market Expectations and Policy Implications - The prevailing expectation is a 25 basis point rate cut, but Miran and other officials like Christopher Waller may advocate for a more substantial cut, possibly 50 basis points [1][3] - Trump's public statements indicate a desire for rates to be lowered to 1%, a level typically seen only during economic crises [3] Concerns Over Independence - Miran's ties to Trump and the administration's influence raise alarms about the Federal Reserve's independence, with critics labeling him as a potential "mouthpiece" for Trump's economic agenda [3] - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed opposition to Miran's nomination, citing concerns for Americans affected by Trump's economic policies [3] Ongoing Legal Battles - Concurrently, a legal battle is unfolding regarding another Fed board member, Lisa Cook, who was dismissed by Trump but is contesting the allegations against her [5] - This situation adds a layer of political complexity to the FOMC meeting, making it not just an economic decision but also a matter of the Fed's independence and future personnel dynamics [5]

A U.S. appeals court declined on Monday to allow Donald Trump to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook - the first time a president has pursued such action since the central bank's founding in 1913 - in the latest step in a legal battle that threatens the Fed's longstanding independence. ...

布拉德表示："如果我们为成功做好了准备，我愿意接受这份工作……成功意味着我们要捍卫美元作为 储备货币的地位，保持低且稳定的通胀，并保护美联储的独立性。如果方向是这样，那么我会非常有兴 趣。" 目前，特朗普政府目前正在面试多位候选人，以接替任期将于明年5月结束的美联储主席鲍威尔。鲍威 尔正接近其第二个任期的尾声，但根据规定，他仍可继续担任理事直至2028年。 前圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周一表示，他上周与美国财政部长贝森特就出任美联储主席一职进行了交 流，并表示如果条件合适，他对这一职位非常感兴趣。 布拉德透露："我上周三和财政部长及其团队谈过，不仅涉及美联储主席职位，也涉及其他一些问 题。"布拉德目前担任普渡大学Mitch Daniels商学院院长，曾在2008年至2023年期间领导圣路易斯联 储。 在圣路易斯联储任职期间，布拉德以主张灵活应对经济变化而闻名，他愿意根据形势快速调整政策立 场。 布拉德强调："美联储的独立性至关重要，把政治排除在央行之外，才能确保良好的经济和金融结果。" 此外，布拉德对关税-通胀暂时论表示认同，并倾向支持陷入解雇风波的美联储理事库克。 他解释称，进口在美国经济中整体占比有限，因此关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors raises concerns about the independence of the Fed, particularly in light of President Trump's pressure to cut interest rates [3][5]. Group 1: Nomination Process - A procedural vote on Miran's nomination is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET, followed by a final confirmation vote at around 8 p.m. [2] - If confirmed, Miran plans to take an unpaid leave from his current role as chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisors [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Fed Independence - Markets anticipate the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time since December 2024, but the extent of the cuts remains uncertain [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has resisted Trump's pressure but indicated that economic conditions may justify rate cuts at the upcoming meeting [4]. - Critics argue that Miran's appointment could influence the committee's decisions and undermine the Fed's independence from the White House [5]. Group 3: Term and Resignation - Miran was nominated to fill the seat vacated by Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned in August, and would serve until January 31, when Kugler's term was set to expire [6]. - Miran stated that if he were to be nominated and confirmed for a longer term, he would resign from his current position [6].

来源：滚动播报 布拉德表示美联储必须捍卫美元地位、维持低通胀并维护自身独立性。 ...

美联储本月的议息会议结果将在北京时间9月18日凌晨2点公布。 《闪评》邀请中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌为您解读： 当地时间14日，美国总统特朗普表示，他预计美联储将在会议上宣布"大幅降息"。同一天，特朗普向联 邦上诉法院提出最后请求，要求允许其解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克。美联储货币政策会议在即，但谁能 参会还不确定，美联储还能保持独立性吗？美国此次降息幅度会有多大？ 采访 | 张晗 编辑 | 汪一鸣 后期 | 汪一鸣 签审 | 杨琼 监制 | 蔡耀远 ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Metals Weekly Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **gold** market, highlighting its recent performance and future expectations amid changing economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - **Gold Price Movement**: Gold has broken higher, reaching approximately **$3,650/oz** as of early September 2025, marking a **~6% rally month-to-date** after coiling during the summer [2][4]. - **Investor Demand**: The primary catalyst for gold's price increase is now investor demand, particularly as the market anticipates a **Fed cutting cycle**. This is expected to create a favorable environment for gold inflows [2][19]. - **Future Price Forecasts**: J.P. Morgan forecasts gold prices to average **$3,800/oz in 4Q25** and to exceed **$4,000/oz in 1Q26**, a quarter earlier than previous expectations [5][19]. Federal Reserve Influence - **Rate Cuts Expected**: Economists predict a **25 basis point (bp) cut** in the upcoming Fed meeting, with expectations for three consecutive cuts thereafter. This dovish outlook is expected to support gold prices [2][18]. - **Historical Performance**: Historically, gold has rallied into and following Fed cuts, with double-digit cumulative returns observed over the nine months after the onset of recent Fed cutting cycles [2][19]. Technical Analysis - **Support Levels**: Technical indicators suggest that gold's breakout from previous resistance levels opens potential upside towards **$3,780-$3,880/oz** [30]. - **Silver Market**: In contrast, silver is expected to face medium-term consolidation, with significant resistance around **$42/oz** [30][54]. Risks and Considerations - **Central Bank Demand**: While central bank buying has moderated, it remains a structural support for gold prices. Central bank demand was **166.5 tonnes in 2Q25**, the lowest since 2Q22 [26]. - **Potential Erosion of Fed Independence**: Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to unanchored inflation expectations, potentially pushing gold prices above **$5,000/oz** [31][36]. - **Market Sensitivity**: The gold market is relatively small and liquid, making it susceptible to significant price changes from modest shifts in demand. A rotation of just **0.5% of foreign US asset holdings** into gold could drive prices to **$6,000/oz** [42][47]. Conclusion - J.P. Morgan maintains a bullish outlook on gold, driven by investor demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The anticipated Fed rate cuts and ongoing concerns about inflation and fiscal sustainability are expected to support gold prices in the near term [19][31]. Additional Important Insights - **ETF Inflows**: Recent weeks have seen strong inflows into gold ETFs, with nearly **72 tonnes** added, equivalent to around **$8 billion**, marking the largest weekly inflows since mid-April [6][11]. - **Labor Market Concerns**: Weakness in the labor market could further skew risks towards more aggressive Fed easing, enhancing the bullish case for gold [18][19]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the current state and future expectations of the gold market, emphasizing the interplay between investor sentiment, Federal Reserve policies, and macroeconomic factors.

Group 1: Key Points on Trump's Interference with the Federal Reserve - Trump's interference in the Federal Reserve's independence is primarily through three methods: nominating a compliant Fed Chair, restructuring the Board of Governors, and intervening in the appointment of regional Fed presidents[1] - The new Fed Chair is expected to be nominated in November 2025 and take office in May 2026, potentially leading to a more dovish monetary policy stance[1] - With the new appointments, 4 out of 7 Fed governors may align with Trump's views, increasing his influence over monetary policy decisions[1] Group 2: Market Implications - The anticipated intervention could result in the Fed lowering interest rates more than the current market pricing of 3 cuts, potentially bringing the policy rate below the neutral level of 3%[1] - This shift may transition the U.S. economy from a soft landing to moderate expansion, impacting macroeconomic conditions positively[1] - The weakening of dollar interest rate expectations and increased credit risk could lead to lower 2-year Treasury yields and a declining dollar index[1] Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Potential risks include Trump's re-encounter with assassination attempts, resistance from existing Fed officials against his directives, and possible Republican losses in the midterm elections[1] - The independence of the Fed could be challenged, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy and affecting investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets[1]