非农公布前，现货黄金小幅走低，报3349.3美元/盎司，美元指数DXY波动不大。 美元指数 现货黄金 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月3日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 震荡偏强，关注后续量能情况 市场回顾 今日股指集体收涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额减少672.34亿元。期指方 面，IF、H缩量上涨，IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美国6月ADP就业人数意外减少3.3万人，自2023年3月以来首次负增长，预期为增长9.8万人，5月份数据 在向下修正后仅增加2.9万人。 2. 证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜 力的领域高效集聚。 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 上证涨跌幅（%） | 0.18 | | 深证涨跌幅（%） | 1.17 | | 个股涨跌数比 | 1.75 | | 两市成交额（亿元） | 13097.34 | | 成交额环比（亿元） | -672.34 | source： wind,南华研究 两市融资买入额/两市成交额 source： 同花顺,南华研究 % 两融交易额占A股交 ...

Group 1 - The central banks of the US, Europe, Japan, and other major economies are facing divergent monetary policies due to differing economic growth, inflation, and external environments [3][4] - The US Federal Reserve is currently maintaining interest rates, with potential for a rate cut in September rather than July, influenced by tariff policies and inflation data [3][4] - The European Central Bank is balancing between interest rate cuts and preventing euro volatility, while Japan is leaning towards normalizing its monetary policy amid rising inflation expectations [4] Group 2 - The dollar's status is under scrutiny, with a significant drop in the dollar index projected for 2025, influenced by Fed rate cut expectations and high interest expenses on US debt [4] - The euro is being considered as a potential alternative to the dollar, but challenges such as fragmented capital markets need to be addressed for its internationalization [4]

美元指数日内涨幅达0.5%，报97.1347。 ...

智通财经7月2日电，美元指数日内涨超0.5%，现报97.13。 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by over 20 points, currently reported at 96.87 [1]

美元指数DXY突破97，日内涨0.37%。 美元指数 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The June PMI shows that the domestic prosperity level remains in an expansion state, which is beneficial to the stock market. The State Council Executive Meeting emphasizes strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation, which is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. The recent weakening of the US dollar index has also relieved the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is 3894.2 (+4.8), IH (2509) is 2696.8 (+4.2), IC (2509) is 5756.6 (-14.0), IM (2509) is 6117.0 (-17.0). IF (2507) is 3921.0 (+6.0), IH (2507) is 2703.0 (+4.6), IC (2507) is 5856.6 (-15.4), IM (2507) is 6262.2 (-24.8) [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1218.0 (+2.4), IC - IF spread is 1935.6 (-20.8), etc. [2]. - **Season - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF when - season to current month is - 26.8 (-1.2), IH is - 6.2 (0.0), IC is - 100.0 (+3.4), IM is - 145.2 (+8.2) [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,725.00 (+104.0), IH is - 11,962.00 (-155.0), IC is - 10,395.00 (+7.0), IM is - 34,573.00 (-258.0) [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 is 3943.68 (+0.9), SSE 50 is 2722.55 (+4.8), CSI 500 is 5892.95 (-41.7), CSI 1000 is 6309.48 (-64.3) [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 14,051.09 billion yuan (-914.22 billion), margin trading balance is 18,545.63 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 1318.02 billion yuan (-260.71 billion) [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks is 35.87% (-12.64%), Shibor is 1.365% (-0.002) [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 4.00 (-1.60), technical aspect is 3.60 (-1.20), capital aspect is 4.40 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, up 0.2 points from last month; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 points; comprehensive PMI is 50.7%, up 0.3 points [2]. - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13% [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On July 2, at 19:30, focus on US June Challenger job - cuts; at 20:15, focus on US June ADP employment [3]. - On July 3, at 20:30, focus on US June non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The weakening US dollar index has led to a strong rise in Shanghai aluminum prices, but downstream acceptance in the spot market is poor, and spot premiums have further declined. The expected increase in the Fed's interest rate cuts has slightly weakened the spot price of alumina, and smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. Consumption is showing marginal weakness, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in July [3]. - For alumina, the cost is stable, but producers are pessimistic about future prices, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. Despite smelting profits, weekly production and inventory are rising, and long - term supply pressure remains [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The price follows the aluminum price, and the tight supply of scrap and raw aluminum supports the price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6]. Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,635 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. As of June 30, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 468,000 tons. As of July 1, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar index has pushed up Shanghai aluminum prices, but downstream acceptance is poor, and spot premiums have declined. The expected Fed rate cuts have slightly weakened alumina prices, expanding smelting profits. Supply is stable, and there is no significant impact from the Middle - East crisis on Iranian electrolytic aluminum. Consumption is weakening marginally, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in July, but the inventory level is still low historically [3]. Alumina Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangxi were 3,075 yuan/ton, 3,080 yuan/ton, and 3,180 yuan/ton respectively, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 2,945 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton or 1.41% from the previous trading day. The alumina social inventory is rising, and the current alumina warehouse receipt is 21,000 tons, with the 07 - contract position at 51,000 tons [2][5]. Market Analysis - The cost of bauxite is stable, with the 3rd - quarter long - term contract price of Guinea's mainstream bauxite miners at 74 - 75 US dollars/ton, similar to the 2nd quarter. Alumina producers are pessimistic about future prices, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. Despite smelting profits, production and inventory are rising, and long - term supply pressure remains [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the purchase prices of Baotai's civil and mechanical raw aluminum were 15,300 yuan/ton and 15,400 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 price was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total aluminum alloy inventory was 108,800 tons, a weekly increase of 21,000 tons [2]. Market Analysis - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap and raw aluminum supports the price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6].

Group 1 - Copper prices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai copper main contract closing above 80,000, driven by external market influences [1] - The Caixin PMI data returned above 50, indicating economic expansion, while the deadline for tariff negotiations between multiple countries and the US approaches [1] - The Federal Reserve's Powell expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, although a potential cut in July remains on the table [1] Group 2 - Antofagasta's mid-year smelting processing fee is at 0 yuan/ton, better than market expectations of negative values, but still the lowest in history, indicating ongoing tight supply expectations [1] - Overall demand remains cautious due to overseas macroeconomic concerns and domestic seasonal factors, despite low inventory levels providing short-term support [1] - LME inventory has stopped declining, and while spot premiums have slightly decreased, they remain high, indicating a need to monitor market sentiment [1] Group 3 - Aluminum prices fluctuated at low levels, with Shanghai aluminum showing strength due to the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - Despite concerns over future ore supply tightness, stable import ore prices and high inventory levels limit short-term impacts on alumina prices [1] - The overall surplus in the alumina market remains unchanged, with clear downward pressure, but low valuations suggest opportunities for short selling at high prices [1] Group 4 - Nickel prices saw slight gains in the night session, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] - Nickel smelting is experiencing reduced capacity expansion due to losses, but the surplus situation is unlikely to improve in the short term [1] - Seasonal recovery in ore supply is weakening support for nickel ore prices, leading to a range-bound trading pattern for nickel prices [1]