Core Points - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $252 billion from the end of June, marking a decline of 0.76% [2][5] - The foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months, indicating stability in the overall scale [6] - The decline in reserves was influenced by the rise in the US dollar index and fluctuations in global financial asset prices due to macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies [5][6] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decrease in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the appreciation of the US dollar, which has led to a collective depreciation of non-dollar currencies [5] - The rise in the US dollar index was driven by trade agreements between the US and several developed economies, as well as a decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5] - Despite the decline, the overall scale of foreign exchange reserves remains stable due to the increase in global financial asset prices, which has offset the impact of the dollar's appreciation [5][6] Gold Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 7,396 million ounces, an increase of 6 million ounces from the previous month, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [7] - The central bank's strategy of increasing gold reserves reflects a balance between optimizing reserve structure and controlling acquisition costs [7] - Global central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves in the coming year, driven by economic and geopolitical uncertainties [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, an increase in intermediate product supply, the resurgence of tariff issues, and average market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will face pressure in the near - term and seek support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, due to steel mill and nickel - iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with average spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 121,730 yuan/ton and closed at 120,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,191 lots, and the open interest was 69,366 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a large negative line on the daily chart, with slightly lower trading volume and slightly higher open interest compared to the previous day [1][2]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Trump announced that the US government would release tariff letters or agreements with trading partners at 12:00 noon on July 7, and planned to impose up to 70% tariffs on some countries' goods starting from August 1. Any country aligning with the BRICS anti - US policy would face an additional 10% tariff. In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. As of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.3174 trillion US dollars, up 3.22 billion US dollars from the end of May, an increase of 0.98% [2]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: In the Philippines, heavy rainfall and seasonal typhoons in the Surigao mining area slowed down shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated ferronickel metal production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June 2025, Indonesia's nickel wet - process intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 1,500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands in the market also decreased accordingly. The spot supply of refined nickel was sufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, with average spot transactions. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 300 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,832 (- 227.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,470 (0) tons [2]. 3.2 Nickel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly operate within a range. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [3]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,760 yuan/ton and closed at 12,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,639 lots, and the open interest was 90,442 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a medium - sized negative line on the daily chart, with slightly higher trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: Similar to the nickel market, heavy rainfall and typhoons in the Philippines' Surigao mining area affected shipping. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage was alleviated by production cuts. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. Nickel - iron quotes were mainly in the range of 915 - 920 yuan/nickel (including bottom - hold tax) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The stainless - steel futures market was weak, with low market inquiry activity and insufficient transaction follow - up. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 125 - 275 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [5].

Core Insights - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $3.6 billion to $328.53 billion, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, although the increase was significantly lower than the previous month's $41 billion rise [3] - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to a combination of exchange rate adjustments and asset price changes, with non-USD currencies contributing positively while bond prices declined [3] - China's gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces, marking a net increase for the seventh consecutive month, despite a slight decrease in the proportion of gold reserves relative to total foreign reserves [5][6] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves stood at $328.53 billion as of May, reflecting a $3.6 billion increase from April [3] - The increase was primarily driven by the appreciation of non-USD currencies and fluctuations in global asset prices, with the dollar index showing a slight decline [3] - The average daily trading volume in the domestic foreign exchange market reached $47.8 billion, a 13% increase month-on-month, indicating heightened trading activity [4] Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves increased by 60,000 ounces to 73.83 million ounces, with a total value of approximately $241.99 billion, accounting for 7.37% of total foreign reserves [5] - The gold price experienced a decline of 0.7% in May, marking the first monthly drop in five months, influenced by macroeconomic factors [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the central bank's continued accumulation of gold is a strategic move to enhance the credibility of the national currency and support the internationalization of the renminbi [6]

我国经济呈现向好态势，经济发展韧性强、活力足，这为外汇储备规模的稳定增长提供了坚实的基础。我国经济的稳定增长不 仅提升了市场对人民币资产的信心，也吸引了更多的外资流入，进一步增强了外汇储备的稳定性。此外，我国在国际贸易和投 资领域的持续开放，也为外汇储备的稳定增长提供了支持。 国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至4月末，我国外汇储备规模为32817亿美元，较3月末上升410亿美元，升幅为1.27%，已连 续17个月稳定在3.2万亿美元以上。这一数据表明我国外汇储备规模保持了较为稳定的增长态势，反映出我国经济的韧性和活 力。国家外汇管理局表示，4月受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互 现。我国经济呈现向好态势，经济发展韧性强、活力足，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 外汇储备规模上升的原因 美元指数下跌 4月，美元指数下跌，这对我国外汇储备规模产生了积极影响。美元指数的下跌意味着其他货币相对美元升值，我国外汇储备 中的非美元资产价值相对上升，从而推动外汇储备规模的增加。此外，美元指数下跌也反映了市场对全球经济格局的调整预 期，特别是对美国经济政策和增长前景的担忧。 全球 ...