证券研究报告 宽观 5 月全球 PMI:关税暂缓推动订单反 华泰研究 2025年6月12日|中国内地 动态点评 图说全球 PMI | 2025年5月 本系列为华泰宏观出品、全球 PMI月度追踪系列的第二十三期。5月全球制 造业 PMI 回落,但关税降级推动大部分国家制造业 PMI 改善,其中,欧元 区、东盟、墨西哥等国家和地区表现较好;制造业新订单和新出口订单或受 益于抢出口大多出现回升;价格指标维持高位,库存稳步上行。5月全球服 务业 PMI 有所回升,但主要受美国提振,欧日均有所回落。 5 月全球 PMI 走势概述:服务业景气度上行带动 5 月全球综合 PMI 上行 0.4pp 至 51.2。制造业 PMI:大部分国家制造业 PMI 均有所改善:美国 Markit 和 ISM 制造业 PM 走势分化,后者有所回落:欧元区则延续年初以来回升 的趋势;从绝对水平看,印度>美国 Markit>拉美>俄罗斯>欧元区=日本>东 盟>中国台湾地区>英国。服务业 PMI:全球服务业 PMI 景气度回升,主要 由美国 Markit 服务业 PMI 上行带动,欧元区和日本均走弱。订单:全球制 造业新订单延续下行,但出口新订 ...

Group 1 - Airbus predicts that the global commercial aircraft fleet will double in the next 20 years, reaching nearly 50,000 aircraft, driven by rapid growth in markets like India [1] - By 2044, the global active fleet is expected to increase by 24,480 aircraft, with significant contributions from single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 [1] - Airbus anticipates that the Indian domestic aviation network will become the fastest-growing aviation market, while China will become the largest market in terms of capacity [1] Group 2 - Airbus CEO Christian Scherer noted that there has not been a fundamental shift in customer demand outside the U.S. domestic market, with continued interest in their products [2] - Despite easing supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, some components remain in short supply, affecting aircraft deliveries, particularly for the A320neo and A350 models [2] - India has emerged as the world's third-largest domestic aviation market, with a growing affluent population driving future aircraft demand, as evidenced by Indian airlines ordering 570 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing since 2023 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in gold prices is driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty in global trade, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 12, gold prices reached $3,375.50 per ounce, marking a 0.61% increase from the previous day [4]. - The gold price opened at $3,356.79 per ounce, with a daily high of $3,377.50 and a low of $3,351.38 [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly warnings from Iran regarding potential retaliation against U.S. military assets if negotiations fail [3]. - The U.S. is evacuating non-essential personnel from its embassy in Baghdad and military families from several bases in the Gulf due to security concerns, further stimulating safe-haven buying of gold [3]. Group 3: Year-to-Date Trends - Gold prices have increased by 28% year-to-date, supported by rising geopolitical risks and increased central bank purchases [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for fuel oil is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 2952.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3020.00 CNY, reflecting a 3.05% increase [1] - The current fuel oil sales in China are 44,200 tons, up from 43,100 tons in the previous period, indicating a 2.55% increase [1] - The inventory rate for domestic fuel oil is at 6.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous period's 5.6% [1] Group 2 - ARA region fuel oil inventories have decreased, which is favorable for fuel oil prices [2] - The trade demand is recovering as tariff disputes move towards agreement, which is expected to support fuel oil prices [2] - The cost side is seeing a rebound in crude oil prices, which is anticipated to drive fuel oil prices higher [2]

6月7日，中欧围绕电动汽车、白兰地反倾销和稀土出口管制的三大贸易争端取得关键进展。而次日，中国代表团将启程访英，并将在6月9日与美 方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。微妙的时间线背后，一场横跨欧亚大陆与大西洋的博弈暗流涌动。"欧盟提出可同时探讨新的技术路径"——6 月7日，商务部发言人的这句话，成为撬动中欧僵局的支点。自2024年欧盟对华电动汽车发起反补贴调查以来，双方剑拔弩张：欧盟指控中国车企 享受不公平补贴，威胁加征最高39%的关税。 中方则启动对欧盟白兰地的反倾销调查，精准反制法国核心产业。这场拉锯战在2025年6月迎来转机：双方电动汽车案价格承诺磋商进入最后阶 段，欧盟主动松口，提出"技术路径替代方案"，试图绕过传统关税对抗模式，给与中国想要的——中国车企在欧洲市场上的公平竞争环境。与此 同时，法国干邑白兰地行业提交的价格承诺申请获得突破性进展。中方拟于7月5日前发布终裁公告，若条款落实，法国企业可通过自主定价避免 最高39%的反倾销税。 而在稀土领域，中方虽坚持出口管制符合国际规则，但承诺为符合条件的欧盟企业开通"绿色通道"，审批效率将大幅提升。这三项进展，被外媒 称为"中国用精准反制换来的欧洲妥协" ...

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in CPI is expected to suppress the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The market is aware that reaching trade agreements among major economies is not straightforward, and ongoing global trade tensions may continue to support gold prices [1] - CPI data is anticipated to rise, which should provide investors with more guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Silver prices are projected to reach $38 per ounce in the coming months, with market deficits and a weakening dollar being key factors for further price increases, potentially testing $40 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the fluctuating global trade situation and its impact on market sentiment, particularly focusing on the potential movement of gold prices towards 3350 [1] Group 1: Global Trade Situation - The current global trade environment is characterized by uncertainty, leading to volatile market reactions [1] - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by ongoing trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - There is speculation regarding gold prices potentially reaching 3350, indicating a significant shift in investor behavior [1] - The analysis suggests that gold may serve as a safe haven amid the prevailing trade uncertainties [1]

据美国彭博社、新加坡《联合早报》等媒体报道，欧洲中央银行行长拉加德11日在中国人民银行发表演 讲时表示，做全球贸易中的霸凌者并非长远之计，即使面临地缘政治分歧，各国也必须寻求合作解决方 案。"胁迫性的贸易政策不是解决当今贸易紧张局势的可持续方案。"拉加德说，"通过保护主义解决(贸 易)失衡问题并不能解决问题根源，反而会侵蚀全球繁荣的基础。""如今各国通过全球供应链深度融合 ——但在地缘政治层面却不再像过去那样立场一致——这种风险变得比以往任何时候都更大。胁迫性的 贸易政策更有可能引发报复，并给双方都造成伤害。"(环球网) ...

世行表示，预计不会出现全球经济衰退。 世行集团首席经济学家兼主管发展经济学高级副行长英德米特·吉尔表示："发展中经济体的增速三十年 来不断下降，从21世纪第一个十年的平均6%降到第二个十年的均速5%，再降到第三个十年的4%以下。 这与全球贸易的增长轨迹相吻合，全球贸易增速从21世纪第一个十年的平均5%降到第二个十年的4.5% 左右，到第三个十年的3%以下。投资增速也出现放慢，但债务却节节攀升，已达到创纪录的水平。" 世行称，关税增加和劳动力市场收紧也对全球通胀造成上行压力，预计2025年全球通胀率平均为 2.9%，仍高于疫情前的水平。 世行表示，增速放慢将阻碍发展中经济体促进就业创造、减少极端贫困和缩小与发达经济体人均收入差 距的努力。预计2025年发展中经济体的人均收入增长为2.9%，比2000年至2019年期间的平均水平低1.1 个百分点。 全球贸易政策的变化 当地时间10日，世界银行（下称"世行"）发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告称，紧张局势加剧和政策 不确定性将推动今年全球经济增长创下2008年以来最慢速度。 世行称，这导致近70%经济体的增速预测下调，预计2025年全球增速将放慢至2.3%，比年初的 ...