↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： CVer新视觉 来源：雪球 01 一笔小钱，引出大问题 你有没有在投资时，也做过类似的决定： 金额不大，反正也不影响整体收益，就随便买点试试看；跌了，算学费；赚了，当运气好。 我最近就这样处理了一笔5000块的长期定投资金。本以为只是一次小小的调仓动作，甚至连当天的成交价格都没认真看。但事后复盘才发现，这 次交易背后的随意，恰恰暴露了我内心深处对这笔资金的不够尊重。 明明在另一个账户里，我对32万元的配置精打细算，连买入顺序都安排得明明白白；可到了这个账户，只因为金额小，就默许了自己可以"放松一 点"。 结果并不重要，关键在于这个思维的倾斜。如果连一笔5000块的资金都无法认真对待，我又怎么能确信自己在其他账户里没有放松警惕？ 02 我对纪律的放松，是从哪一刻开始的 是那笔买入黄金的操作，现在回头看，几乎是我投资纪律滑坡的分水岭。 当时市场上关于黄金的热度已经很高了，无论是社交平台还是财经圈，情绪都在一致看多。而我明明早已设定好在某个估值区间停止加仓的原则， 全天候组合也已经暂停 ...

市场展望 | 2026 投资纪律将成为致胜关键 展望 2026 年，纪律可能是投资者面对日益复杂和动荡的市场格局的决定性原则。2026年全球经济或呈现先强后弱的增 长特征：受到财政刺激和人工智能驱动的资本投资的推动，2026年上半年或维持强劲增长势头，随后随着财政刺激效果 的消退和劳动力市场的挑战变得更加突出，经济或过渡至偏弱的情景。这样的转变强化了有纪律的风险管理和深思熟虑 的投资组合构建的重要性，因为整体环境从增加风险资产转向进一步强调风险管理。 2026年前几个月，投资者可能会受益于稳定的企业盈利、具韧性的消费者需求以及对技术和人工智能的持续投资。然而 随着时间的推进，可能放缓的经济增长，持续的政策不确定性，以及处于高位的市场估值，可能需要重新调整风险配置。 将投资组合从风险资产转向更均衡的配置，更好发挥生息型资产和多元化组合的作用，对于获得投资回报和管理波动性 至关重要。 投资纪律或将成为区分不同投资者表现的关键——不仅在资产选择方面，也在于与财政可持续性、科技投资和信用风险 敞口管理相关的资产方面。能够保持严谨的多元化、谨慎挑选投资管理人、并获取稳定生息的投资者或能更好地应对市 场波动，并及时把握可 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that investors should prioritize not losing money over merely making profits, aligning with the philosophy of anzocapital [3] - The article highlights the importance of focusing on value rather than price as a fundamental investment discipline [3] - It discusses common pitfalls for investors, such as confusing price with value and selling out of panic, which can lead to poor investment decisions [3] Group 2 - The article advocates for a contrarian investment approach, suggesting that successful investors should buy during panic and sell when confident [3] - It references John Paulson's contrarian investment case to illustrate the effectiveness of reverse thinking in overcoming fear and avoiding greed [3] - Anzocapital believes that by adopting these perspectives, investors can maintain rationality and improve their chances of success in capital markets [3]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown extreme divergence in performance this year, with the Sci-Tech 100 Index rising over 60% while the Dividend Index has fallen nearly 8%, resulting in a nearly 70% difference between the two indices [1][2] - Approximately 500 stocks have doubled in value this year, accounting for nearly 10% of the market, indicating significant opportunities for investors [2] Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 100 Index and Sci-Tech 50 Index have increased by 61% and 56% respectively, while the Dividend Index has decreased by 7.19% [2] - The price-to-earnings ratios for the Sci-Tech 100 and Sci-Tech 50 indices are 300x and 200x, respectively, compared to just 7.5x for the Dividend Index [2] Investor Behavior - Many investors experience feelings of regret and jealousy when they miss out on high-performing stocks, which can lead to irrational investment decisions [2][3] - The mindset that others' gains equate to personal losses can be detrimental, causing investors to chase returns blindly [2][3] Investment Principles - Successful investing is not about achieving the highest returns but about reaching financial goals with the least risk [3][4] - Legendary investors emphasize the importance of adhering to fundamental investment principles, such as valuing stocks based on the underlying business rather than market price fluctuations [5][6][7] - Maintaining a critical mindset and emotional discipline is crucial for long-term investment success, regardless of market conditions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extreme divergence in A-share market styles this year, highlighting the significant gains in the Sci-Tech 100 and Sci-Tech 50 indices compared to the decline in the Dividend Index, emphasizing the importance of maintaining investment discipline regardless of market conditions [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index recently broke the 3900-point mark, reaching a 10-year closing high [1]. - The Sci-Tech 100 Index has surged over 60% year-to-date, while the Dividend Index has dropped nearly 8%, indicating a nearly 70% difference in performance between these indices [1][3]. - Approximately 500 stocks have doubled in value this year, accounting for nearly 10% of the market [3]. Investor Psychology - Many investors may feel distressed by their underperformance in the market, leading to a detrimental mindset that equates others' gains with their losses [3]. - This mindset can result in irrational behavior, prompting investors to buy stocks they should not hold in a bid to avoid missing out on potential gains [3][5]. - The article references legendary fund manager Peter Lynch, who noted that many investors suffer from the pain of missing out on top-performing stocks, which can lead to poor investment decisions [3][4]. Investment Principles - Successful investing is not about achieving the highest returns but about reaching financial goals with the lowest possible risk [5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to investment principles, such as avoiding high valuations and maintaining a critical mindset towards investments [9][10]. - It highlights that long-term success in investing is more important than short-term market performance, with a focus on minimizing significant losses over time [10].

Group 1 - The annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting attracted a record attendance of approximately 19,700 shareholders, coinciding with Warren Buffett's 60th anniversary at the helm of the company [1] - Buffett expressed that even a 30% drop in Berkshire's stock price would be viewed as a "very good opportunity," emphasizing the importance of rational judgment over emotional reactions during critical times [1] - The company is adopting a cautious approach towards artificial intelligence, with Buffett stating that they will not place all bets on AI and have appointed Ajit Jain to oversee related decisions [1] Group 2 - Buffett highlighted the challenges of finding high returns due to the company's size, stating that it has become increasingly difficult to identify attractive investment opportunities [2] - In response to concerns about the large cash reserves, Buffett indicated that acting hastily could harm shareholder interests and expressed a willingness to reduce cash levels to $50 billion if better opportunities arise [2] - The meeting also marked a significant transition, as Buffett announced his intention to step down as CEO by the end of the year, with Greg Abel set to take over, signaling the end of an era for the company [2]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway reported a significant decline in net profit for Q1 2025, with a net profit of $4.603 billion, down 64% year-over-year, and an investment net loss of $5.038 billion, compared to a profit of $1.48 billion in the same period last year [1][3] Financial Performance - The cash position of Berkshire Hathaway reached a record high of $347.7 billion, approximately ¥25.283 trillion, by the end of Q1 [3] - The total fair value of equity investments is concentrated 69% in American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Chevron, and Coca-Cola [3] Investment Strategy - The company maintains a cautious approach towards AI investments, opting for a wait-and-see strategy rather than following trends blindly [5] - Berkshire Hathaway emphasizes the importance of patience in investment, stating that good opportunities do not arise every day [7] - The company views cash as a strategic asset, providing a buffer against risks and reducing reliance on external financing [9] Market Perspective - Buffett expressed that trade should not be used as a weapon, advocating for balanced and stable global trade for the benefit of all nations [6] - The company faces challenges due to its size, making it more difficult to find high-return investments [11] Corporate Culture - Buffett highlighted the joy of business as a key motivator, stating that passion for the work is more important than financial gain [7] - The company encourages young investors to prioritize finding the right direction and leadership over initial salary considerations [8] Risk Management - Buffett warned that making incorrect investments is more dangerous than not investing at all, indicating a preference for waiting for better opportunities [12]