日本央行副行长内田真一：担心近期物价上涨对消费产生负面影响。 ...

Economic Performance - Japan's GDP for Q1 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted decline of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and an annualized decrease of 0.7%, marking the first negative growth in a year [1] - The weak economic performance is attributed to sluggish consumer spending and poor export performance [2] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, experienced nearly zero growth in Q1, primarily due to rising prices [2] - The continuous increase in prices of rice and vegetables since late last year has negatively impacted consumer purchasing power and willingness, leading to a decline in the consumption of meat and fish [2] Export and Import Dynamics - Exports of goods and services fell by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, while imports rose by 2.9%, further diminishing the contribution of trade to economic growth [2] - The decline in exports is influenced by reduced intellectual property fees and the conclusion of large R&D service orders from the previous quarter, alongside potential threats from U.S. tariff policies affecting market confidence [2] Tariff Negotiations - Ongoing negotiations between Japan and the U.S. regarding tariffs, particularly on automobiles, present an uncertain outlook for Japan's economy [3] - The automotive industry, a pillar of Japan's economy, accounts for 50% of manufacturing output and employs 5.58 million people, with the U.S. being the largest overseas market for Japanese cars [3] - A potential 25% tariff on Japanese cars and parts could lead to a profit reduction of nearly $30 billion for Japanese automakers, significantly impacting major companies like Toyota and Nissan, as well as the extensive supply chain [3]

美国财政部副部长：对持续上涨的物价不担忧。 ...

Group 1 - The 90-day tariff suspension has led U.S. companies to stockpile goods for Black Friday and Christmas, creating a demand "tug-of-war" for ports and shipping companies [1] - Following the announcement of tariff increases by Trump in April, container ship orders from China to the U.S. have sharply declined, putting significant pressure on port throughput capacity due to a rapid increase in import volumes [1] - U.S. retailers typically arrange imports for Black Friday and Christmas between July and mid-October, but the tariff suspension agreement expiring on August 10 is prompting early orders from importers [1] Group 2 - Economists predict that despite a trade agreement, U.S. economic growth will be significantly lower this year due to rising price pressures and severe policy uncertainty [2] - Freightos indicates that the current 30% tariff level is likely to encourage shippers to load containers early to prepare for potential tariff increases in August, which will stress freight rates and port throughput capacity [2] - Freightos forecasts that shipping costs will remain lower than last year's peak season rates, with costs for a 40-foot container to the U.S. West Coast at $8,000 and to the East Coast at over $9,800, due to fleet expansion and increased competition among new shipping alliances [2]

美联储理事库格勒：贸易政策正在转变，但仍可能导致物价上涨和经济增长放缓。 ...

挪威央行：通胀仍高于目标。如果提前降低政策利率，物价可能会继续快速上涨。 ...

大摩警告，全球航运数据全面下滑，暗示物价上涨、经济增长放缓的双重风险。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利分析师Seth B Carpenter团队在其最新研报中指出，全球航运数据，特别是美国的航运数据，正在经历"惊人的下降"。这种 下降并非偶然，而是对贸易、供应链以及未来经济状况的重要预警信号。 报告显示，美国空白航班（即承运人取消的航班）数量显著增加，等待靠岸的船只队列已经缩短；美国第一季度GDP出现多年来首次收缩，但根本原因并 非内需崩塌，而是进口激增导致的统计学效应，这意味着4月2日关税政策引发的"抢进口"潮正在迅速消退。 报告指出，虽然周五发布的非农就业报告确认实体经济暂时完好，但由于"抢进口"效应，短期内数据将继续呈现波动性，长期可能会导致经济逐渐放缓和 硬性数据的疲软。 作为亚洲贸易的关键指标，韩国出口数据整体也呈现下降趋势。4月前20天，韩国出口同比下降超过10%，但在月末最后10天显著恢复，使全月降幅保持 在个位数范围内。 大摩几个月前对供应链的深入分析显示，某些产品可能会转向越南、印度和其他临近国家生产，但短期内这类产品范围相当有限。简单来说，重新调整生 产要素需要时间并涉及相当大的成本。 报告 ...

Core Insights - Japan is experiencing a significant rise in rice prices, leading to an increase in citizens purchasing rice abroad, particularly during the spring holiday starting April 26 [1][3] - The average price of a 5-kilogram bag of rice in Japan has reached 4,217 yen (approximately 214 RMB), more than double the price from the previous year, marking the highest record since the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries began tracking [3] - The Japanese government is responding to the rising prices by auctioning off reserve rice and increasing imports from overseas [3] Group 1: Price Trends - Rice prices in Japan have been on the rise since last summer, with a reported increase of over 90% year-on-year in April, the highest since 1971 [5][6] - The consumer price index for Tokyo has shown a continuous increase for 44 months, with a 3.4% rise year-on-year, driven largely by the spike in rice prices [6][7] - Related food prices have also increased, with rice balls up 15.8% and dining out prices up 8.3% [6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - An increasing number of Japanese tourists are purchasing rice in countries like South Korea, where prices are significantly lower, approximately half the price of rice in Japan [4][5] - A Japanese tourist shared her experience of buying rice in South Korea, highlighting the price difference: 10 kilograms of rice costs about 8,000 yen (approximately 409 RMB) in Japan compared to around 3,000 yen (approximately 153 RMB) in South Korea [5] - The number of phytosanitary certificates issued for rice exports to Japan has surged, with March figures showing a 20-fold increase compared to the same month in 2024 [5]

美联储理事沃勒：随着裁员开始，人们可能会看到物价上涨。 ...