白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：美国总统特朗普继续与商务部长沟通关税问题。 ...

欧盟外交官：欧盟和美国正朝着可能的贸易协议迈进，美国对欧盟商品的基准关税为15%。 ...

Group 1 - Citigroup's outlook suggests that if growth remains resilient and prices improve, the attractiveness of Chinese assets will increase [1] - Deutsche Bank indicates that the burden of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the dollar [2] - Dutch International highlights concerns over the UK's fiscal situation, which has contributed to the depreciation of the pound [3] Group 2 - Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the deterioration of UK public finance data increases the likelihood of tax measures in the upcoming autumn budget [4] - Capital Economics argues that Trump's tariffs are unlikely to significantly revive U.S. manufacturing, as competition from low-wage countries remains a challenge [5] - Saxo Bank views the recent U.S.-Japan trade agreement as a political show rather than a substantial economic catalyst [6] Group 3 - Citic Construction states that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is entering a fast development phase, positively impacting the supply chain [7] - Citic Construction estimates that the average annual demand for coal-fired power generation capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be 60-80 GW, significantly higher than current market expectations [8] - Citic Securities continues to recommend leading companies in the thermal coal sector, anticipating a new round of opportunities due to recovering coal prices [9] Group 4 - Citic Securities predicts a 25-30% increase in cement demand in Tibet by 2026, driven by ongoing infrastructure development [10] - Citic Securities expects the banking sector to maintain an upward trend in Q3 2025, supported by favorable market conditions [11] - Huatai Securities reports that the domestic "anti-involution" measures are creating opportunities in the metals sector, with price recoveries in polysilicon and other materials [12]

Trade Policy - The US is willing to reduce tariffs if major countries open their markets to the US [1] - Tariffs are seen as a crucial negotiating tool to achieve zero tariffs on US goods in other countries [1] - The US aims to open the Chinese market for non-sensitive products [1]

Trade Policy - The US president is willing to remove tariffs if major countries open their markets to the US [1] - The US Commerce Secretary aims to open the Chinese market for non-sensitive products [2]

Group 1 - The euro is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, with traders closely monitoring the potential impact of tariff noise on the euro to USD exchange rate, reflecting heightened investor caution due to concerns over potential risks [1][2] - If the US and EU fail to reach an agreement, the EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on approximately €100 billion worth of US goods, which has led to a slight decline in the euro against the dollar, currently trading around 1.1720 [1] - The EU is preparing to launch a robust countermeasure plan amid stalled tariff negotiations with the US, merging previously approved tariffs on €210 billion worth of US products with an additional proposed list of €720 billion [1] Group 2 - Market focus is on the latest developments in US-EU trade negotiations, resulting in low trading activity in the forex market, with the euro likely to continue its narrow fluctuations in the short term [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain current interest rates during its upcoming decision, as policymakers assess the impact of US-EU tariffs and the euro exchange rate on economic growth and inflation [2] - The ECB is also monitoring the significant rise of the euro, with analysts noting that any comments regarding foreign exchange during the ECB meeting will attract attention, especially with the euro surpassing 1.20 [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's statement highlights that Japan's open market could be a significant profit factor, comparable to tariffs, primarily due to the strength of tariffs [1] Group 1 - The potential of Japan's open market is emphasized as a major profit opportunity [1] - The relationship between tariffs and market openness is discussed, suggesting that both can influence profitability [1]

富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案副首席投资官Max Gokhman表示："当你设定如此低的门槛，如此多的公 司下调甚至撤回业绩指引，而最终的盈利却超出预期时，美国股市就会再次变得有吸引力。当科技股开 始公布业绩时，它们仍然是一股不容小觑的力量。" 智通财经APP获悉，最新的Markets Pulse调查显示，美国股市将摆脱关税风险，从第二季度财报季中获 得提振。这项于7月10日至17日进行的调查显示，在102名受访者中，近三分之二的人认为，随着未来几 周财报季进入高峰，美国股市的表现将优于美国国债，并带来更好的波动性调整后回报。受访者表示， 科技股有望在本财报季表现最强劲，并继续支撑股市的乐观前景。 多数受访者预计Q2财报季将提振美股 第二季度财报季刚刚开始，但标普500指数成分股的业绩指引已经好于分析师预期。财报发布前，华尔 街预测盈利增速仅为2.8%，为2023年年中以来的最低水平。受银行业绩稳健的影响，盈利增速预期已 略高于3%。 非必需消费品公司"压力山大" 尽管如此，七大科技巨头与标普500指数其他成分股之间仍然存在巨大差距。根据Bloomberg Intelligence 汇编的数据，科技巨头在人工智能 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upward trend of domestic soybean meal is slowing down due to decreased import costs, and the short - term CBOT soybean futures are expected to fluctuate between 1020 - 1040 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has strong upward momentum but may face short - term high - level callback risks. The domestic soybean meal supply is generally abundant, and the demand side lags behind. The domestic hog market is in a state of short - term supply increase and weak demand, showing an overall oscillatory trend [16][17][18] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract rose 0.29% to 3095 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream regional oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton. The DCE hog main 2509 contract rose 1.46% to 14590 yuan/ton, while the national average ex - factory price of ternary hogs decreased by 0.11 yuan/kg to 14.2 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.07% to 1026 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - The rainfall system in the US Midwest is active this week, and the temperature will rise. Most areas in the Midwest have good soil moisture, and corn and soybeans are entering the pollination period. However, some areas still need rainfall, and northern Indiana is a key area to focus on. The high - temperature weather this week may put pressure on areas with less rainfall [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.11 million tons, and the soybean import costs from the US, Brazil, and Argentina have decreased. On July 22, the domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the average trading price rose for four consecutive days. The US soybean futures prices are oscillating strongly, and the Brazilian soybean export premium quotes are slightly falling. The rapeseed meal continues to rise, and the spot basis weakens slightly. Argentina's June soybean crushing volume is 4.055149 million tons. As of July 20, the EU's 2025/26 soybean, palm oil, and soybean meal imports are lower than last year. The domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices are rising strongly, and the import soybean crushing profit has recovered [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts related to the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and hogs, as well as the inventory of Chinese soybeans and soybean meal [10][13][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the short - term CBOT soybean futures are expected to fluctuate between 1020 - 1040 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has strong upward momentum but may face short - term high - level callback risks. The domestic soybean meal supply is generally abundant, and the demand side lags behind. For hogs, the short - term supply increases and the demand is weak, showing an overall oscillatory trend, and the short - term price changes with the rhythm of slaughter and second - fattening entry and exit [16][17][18]

虽然美银的结构性观点保持不变，但最新进展给美银的基准情景带来了上行风险（基准情景即有效关税将稳定在 10% 左右）。特别是可能会有更多针 对特定行业的关税出台。不确定性和关税冲击的持续时间在延长。即使有特朗普看跌期权，关税可能也不会完全回到中美协议中 5 月份的低点。 7月22日，美银发布研究报告指出，美国最新的关税公告可能使有效税率提高约 5 个百分点。根据过去 12 个月的进口构成，美银估计有效税率将升至 近 16%（图表 1）。 有效关税税率大约提高 5 个百分点，将使美国财政赤字降低约 50 个基点，对于仍高于 GDP 6% 的赤字来说不算多，并且会给通胀带来约 30 个基点的 上行风险，给增长带来下行风险。 但最新的关税公告远非板上钉钉。相反，截止日期从 7 月 9 日延长至 8 月 1 日表明还有谈判的空间。尽管如此，由于滞胀冲击可能延续到 2026 年，美 联储更有可能按兵不动，这与美银与众不同的观点一致，即今年美联储不会降息。 截至 5 月，美银对有效关税的估计与实际征收的关税非常接近，总体有效关税税率为 9.6%。 不过，美银发现了一些差异。5 月份对中国的关税征收超过了美银的估计，实际计算 ...