证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 土地溢价率明显回落——每周经济观察第 17 期 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上： 1、耐用品消费：4 月前三周，汽车零售继续回落。4 月第三周，乘用车零零 售增速 17%，前值 13%。4 月前 20 日，乘用车零售增速同比 11.8%。3 月全月， 乘用车零售增速同比+14.4%。 2、土地：周度溢价率明显回落。截至 4 月 20 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 4.27%， 近三周平均为 7.7%；3 月全月为 13.24%；2 月全月为 10.72%。 3、水泥发运率有所回落。截至 4 月 25 日当周，水泥发运率为 40.33%，持平 上周，但低于 4 月初，去年同期为 40.5%。 4、贸易：近一周美国进口额与进口量下滑。4 月 24 日当周，美国进口金额和 进口集装箱量均出现较大幅度下滑，分别环比上周下降约 27.8%、24.3%，其 中，从中国进口金额环比-27.3%，从中国进口集装箱量环比-29.1%。 5、物价：金价回调，油价走弱。COMEX 黄金收于 3272.2 美金/盎司，下跌 1.5%；美油收于 63.02 美元/桶，下跌 2.6%，布油收于 ...

天津发行10年期一般债地方债，规模38.8000亿元，发行利率1.8300%，边际倍数1.67倍，倍数预期 1.79。 ...

江苏发行3年期普通专项地方债，规模57.6800亿元，发行利率1.5400%，边际倍数7.58倍，倍数预期 1.56。 江苏发行7年期一般债地方债，规模50.6300亿元，发行利率1.6600%，边际倍数4.87倍，倍数预期1.68； 江苏发行7年期一般债地方债，规模268.6900亿元，发行利率1.6600%，边际倍数4.82倍，倍数预期 1.68； ...

内蒙古发行10年期一般债地方债，规模250.9531亿元，发行利率1.8900%，边际倍数2.37倍，倍数预期 1.79。 ...

Overall Issuance Situation - In March 2025, the issuance volume of local government bonds was 978.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 326.9 billion yuan month-on-month but an increase of 349.4 billion yuan year-on-year. The net financing amount was 879.2 billion yuan, down 393.6 billion yuan month-on-month but up 594.4 billion yuan year-on-year [3][5]. - The issuance of new special bonds remained high, with a total of 363.5 billion yuan issued in March, a year-on-year increase of 132.7 billion yuan but a slight month-on-month decrease of 28.5 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing bonds reached 541.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.2 billion yuan [3][5]. Issuance Rates - The weighted average issuance rate of local government bonds rose by 16.77 basis points to 2.09% in March 2025. The issuance rates for various maturities also increased, with the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds rising by 13.72 bps, 16.08 bps, 18.22 bps, 18.12 bps, 24.02 bps, 16.38 bps, and 17.21 bps respectively [15][18]. Issuance Spread - The increase in local government bond rates exceeded that of national treasury yields, leading to a widening of the issuance spreads across all maturities. The spreads for 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds increased by 2.89 bps, 7.69 bps, 3.11 bps, 6.46 bps, 9.28 bps, 4.59 bps, and 2.65 bps respectively. Hebei and Henan had relatively high issuance spreads of 24.60 bps and 23.48 bps respectively [15][17]. Issuance Maturity - The average issuance maturity of local government bonds in March was 17.33 years, a slight decrease of 0.22 years from the previous month. The average maturities for new general bonds and new special bonds increased by 0.04 years and 1.99 years to 8.65 years and 19.37 years respectively, while the average maturity for refinancing bonds decreased by 1.61 years to 17.16 years [18][20]. Fund Utilization - The primary focus of the funds raised through new special bonds in March was on infrastructure projects, with 62.25% of the funds allocated to "municipal and industrial park infrastructure," "transportation infrastructure," and "public services," reflecting a 14.11 percentage point increase from the previous month. The amounts allocated to these areas were 95.1 billion yuan, 90.4 billion yuan, and 40.8 billion yuan respectively [23][26].

Group 1 - Dalian issued a 5-year special local bond with a scale of 0.4500 billion, an issuance rate of 1.5500%, and a marginal multiple of 2.22, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.57 [1] - Dalian issued a 10-year municipal infrastructure special local bond with a scale of 1.2110 billion, an issuance rate of 1.8600%, and a marginal multiple of 1.80, surpassing the expected multiple of 1.73 [1] - Dalian issued a 15-year special local bond with a scale of 0.9483 billion, an issuance rate of 2.0600%, and a marginal multiple of 4.03, significantly higher than the expected multiple of 1.92 [1] - Dalian issued a 20-year special local bond with a scale of 27.6095 billion, an issuance rate of 2.1200%, and a marginal multiple of 2.88, above the expected multiple of 2.12 [1] - Dalian issued a 30-year special local bond with a scale of 0.1238 billion, an issuance rate of 2.1300%, and a marginal multiple of 1.54, lower than the expected multiple of 2.08 [1]

Group 1 - The issuance of local bonds is expected to accelerate in the second quarter, but the impact may be relatively limited. The first quarter saw a slower pace of new bond issuance compared to 2023, but the progress of replacement bonds was faster. As of April 3, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general and special bonds accounted for 34.9% and 21.8% of the annual quota, respectively [10][14][25]. - In the second quarter, the issuance of local bonds may speed up, with a focus on 10-year and longer-term bonds. The demand for stable growth and policy guidance is likely to lead to a significant increase in the issuance of new special bonds, while the replacement of hidden debt bonds is expected to be nearly complete [19][27]. Group 2 - Banks remain the main players in local bond allocation, with a recent increase in the willingness of broad-based funds to allocate. Since the implementation of the debt policy in October 2023, the interest and allocation willingness of broad-based funds towards local bonds have significantly increased, with the investment share rising from 5.44% in October 2023 to 8.54% in February 2025 [3][19]. - Local bonds currently exhibit both allocation value and trading value, making them a timely investment. The liquidity of local bonds is notably weaker than that of government bonds, and their market performance tends to lag behind. However, the current price-performance ratio of local bonds is high, providing both allocation and trading opportunities [3][19][27].