Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the export policy not being more relaxed than expected. The international urea price is strong, and the domestic urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the urea market are the international supply and domestic demand. The main risk is the change in export policy [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. The international situation has led to a supply shortage, and the Indian tender price is expected to rise further, making the international urea price strong. In China, the operating rate has decreased but remains high, and the overall inventory is still high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have been declining, and the agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The overall supply of urea in China exceeds demand significantly, and the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 66, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, but still indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price and a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1830 (-20), the Henan spot price is 1830 (0), and the FOB China price is 2581 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 09 contract is 1764 (-9), the basis is 66 (-1), the price of UR01 is 1731 (-3), and the price of UR05 is 1738 (0) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 2630 (-15), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), the UR factory inventory is 1.035 million tons (+55,000), and the UR port inventory is 205,000 tons (0) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] | Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The daily production at the operating rate is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, domestic demand for urea is weak while exports provide support, showing an oscillating trend. In the short term, it will mainly move in an oscillating manner without obvious driving forces. In the short term, due to continuously weak spot transactions, it may face pressure and oscillate [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,764 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,761 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume was 181,747 lots, an increase of 9,486 lots; the open interest was 197,992 lots, an increase of 206 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 2,630 tons, a decrease of 15 tons; the trading volume was 639,981 ten thousand yuan, an increase of 28,236 ten thousand yuan. The basis in Shandong region was 56 yuan, down 31 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was -64 yuan, down 11 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 26 yuan, down 1 yuan. The spread between UR09 and UR01 was 33 yuan, down 6 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea plants remained unchanged, while Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 20 yuan to 1,700 yuan/ton, and Hebei Dongguang decreased by 10 yuan to 1,790 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong region decreased by 40 yuan to 1,820 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi region remained unchanged at 1,720 yuan/ton. The operating rate was 85.98%, unchanged, and the daily output was 199,060 tons, unchanged [1] Industry News - On July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. During this period, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, and some urea plants continued to execute previous export orders. Domestic industrial demand was weak, and local agricultural demand increased incrementally. The shipment of urea plants varied significantly, and inventory changes were different among regions [2] - In the short term, the domestic demand is weak, and exports provide support, showing an oscillating trend. In the short term, due to continuously weak spot transactions, it may face pressure and oscillate. In early July, the fundamentals of urea are expected to improve marginally. There will be concentrated maintenance on the supply side, with a decline in the operating rate and daily output. On the demand side, traders are gradually picking up goods for export, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. The pressure of factories' pending orders and inventory is not large, and spot quotes are slightly rising. Additional export quotas may gradually be implemented, increasing the export volume. However, domestic agricultural demand is coming to an end, and fundamental pressure is gradually increasing, significantly suppressing the upward price space [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The relaxation of port inspections is expected to increase export demand. However, agricultural demand in July is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. In the short term, the price will oscillate within the range of 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton, and long positions should be held cautiously [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2509 dropped by 12 yuan to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price of urea in the central China's mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1840 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 1025 lots to 193,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 708 lots to 215,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 198,600 tons, 1,200 tons less than the previous working day and 29,100 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 85.79%, 7.52 percentage points higher than 78.27% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 967,700 tons, 50,800 tons less than last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. The urea port inventory is 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 29.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, and the operating rate of melamine is 62.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [1] - Policy: To facilitate the self - regulated export of urea by circulation enterprises, the association has coordinated with relevant departments to open a port legal inspection channel. Three state - owned fertilizer trading enterprises will be the execution subjects for the self - regulated export port legal inspection of urea [1] - Tender: The RCF urea import tender received a total of 3.0809 million tons of supplies from 21 suppliers. Only 405,000 tons of supplies were below the CIF price of $500/ton [1] Market Logic - With the relaxation of port inspections, export demand is expected to increase. But in July, agricultural demand is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. Upstream factories are destocking this week, and the Indian tender results continue to be favorable for exports. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Long positions should be held cautiously [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down. The spot price of urea is rising steadily, and the order - receiving situation has slowed down. There is no pressure to cut prices due to sufficient pre - orders. The daily production of urea has little change, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand is more cautious than the industrial demand. The agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remains low, and the inventory has increased. Although the industrial demand is weak, the export orders are still being shipped, and the inventory has been continuously reduced. The international price is rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment is also high. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The intraday trend of the market was low - opening and low - going, with an oscillating decline. The spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The daily production of urea changed little, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand was more cautious than the industrial demand, and the agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, and the inventory increased. Although the industrial demand was weak, the export orders were still being shipped, and the inventory was continuously reduced. The international price was rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment was also high. The short - term trend was mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - In the futures market, the urea main 2509 contract opened at 1776 yuan/ton, with an intraday weak oscillation, and finally closed at 1773 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The trading volume decreased by 10,443 lots to 197,786 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,313 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,589 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed, such as Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increasing by 3,696 lots and Guotai Junan's net short positions increasing by 2,246 lots [2]. - In the spot market, the spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. Basis Tracking - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation rose, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared with the previous trading day, reaching 77 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [7]. Supply Data - On July 1, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, the same as the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.63% [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of India's tender import price and volume has boosted the futures and spot prices of urea. The urea production remains at a high level, with the downstream in the peak agricultural demand season and the industrial demand falling short of expectations. The export quota is gradually released, leading to an increase in port inventory and a decrease in upstream enterprise inventory [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [8][9][15] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes information on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [17][20][21] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Data on the FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - sized urea in China, the CFR price of large - sized urea in China, the difference between the FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea and the FOB price of China minus 30, the difference between the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price of China, urea export profit, and disk export profit are provided [25][30][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - It contains data on the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei [45][40][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract is presented [43][46][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned [1] 2. Core View - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. The price of urea in July is still supported by the top - dressing demand, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround lies in exports [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Price and Related Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 9, UR01, UR05, UR09, and Shandong urea futures prices (closing prices) were 1736.00 yuan/ton, 1736.00 yuan/ton, 1770.00 yuan/ton, and 1840.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 13.00 yuan/ton (0.75%), 9.00 yuan/ton (0.52%), 7.00 yuan/ton (0.40%), and 20.00 yuan/ton (1.10%) compared to July 8 [1] - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in different regions on July 9 showed varying degrees of change compared to July 8. For example, the prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1700.00 yuan/ton, 1840.00 yuan/ton, 1800.00 yuan/ton, 1880.00 yuan/ton, and 1850.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 20.00 yuan/ton (1.19%), 30.00 yuan/ton (1.66%), 20.00 yuan/ton (1.12%), 0.00 yuan/ton (0.00%), and 10.00 yuan/ton (0.54%) [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 104.00 yuan/ton on July 9, an increase of 11.00 yuan compared to July 8. The 01 - 05 spread was 0.00 yuan/ton on July 9, an increase of 4.00 yuan compared to July 8 [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080.00 yuan/ton and 820.00 yuan/ton respectively on July 9 compared to July 8 [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930.00 yuan/ton and 2520.00 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17.00 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) to 5006.00 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1775 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1763 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1770 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1771 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 211186 lots [1] Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong - side shock and closed at 1770. The supply pressure of urea is still large, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port - collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still about 880,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, so low - buying opportunities can be considered. But if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，印度招标价预计进一步抬 升，国际尿素价格偏强。国内供应方面，开工率有所回落但仍偏高，库存小幅波动。需求端，工 业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求预期再次转淡。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1850（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差80，升贴水比例4.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.6万吨（+6.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； ...

2025 年 07 月 10 日 尿素：小幅探涨格局延续 | | | 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,770 | 1,763 | 7 -27101 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,771 | 1,755 | 1 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 166,296 | 193,397 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 211,186 | 214,386 | -3200 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,245 | 2,607 | -362 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 588,944 | 678,928 | -89984 | | | | | 山东地区基差 | 7 0 | 5 7 | 1 3 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -90 | -83 | - 7 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜 ...

【冠通研究】 现货市场热情高涨 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 9 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面高开低走，日内维持高位运行。现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂 出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极，目前工厂待发充足，预计后续暂无降价压 力。基本面来看，日产变动不大，前期检修装置本期陆续有复产情况，预计产 量将有增加。需求端，市场有效需求偏弱，农业需求及工业需求拿货谨慎，刚 需补库为主。农业需求状况好于工业需求，天气多发降雨，农业需求目前也维 持低位拿货，适量补库，预计本月东北华北地区都将迎来收尾，届时将迎来空 窗期。复合肥工厂开工负荷低位，处于秋季肥生产初期阶段，订单以去化厂内 库存为主，工厂销售压力不大，秋季肥多为预收订单，工厂目前观望情绪浓 厚，对尿素保持刚需拿货。虽目前工业需求偏弱，但出口订单依然在发运，农 业需求有局部增量，库存连续去化。整体来说，受印标价格好转的影响，国内 尿素情绪同样高涨，今日期现价格呈现不同幅度的上涨，现货端更出现停售现 象。工厂出口订单支撑，集港陆续进行，盘面依然有支撑，短期依旧以震荡偏 强为主，继续关注出口政策情况。 1 现货方面：现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极， ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-09 夏肥支撑盘面，等待印标价格公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-08，尿素主力收盘1763元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1810 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1820元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：57 元/吨（-15）；河南基差：47元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：77元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润290元/吨（+0），出口利润701 元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-08，企业产能利用率84.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-08，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 目前夏季用肥支撑尿素盘面价格，等待印标价格公布。尿素部分计划检修装置推迟停车，产量继续高位运行。北 方局部区域追肥用量继续释放，农需继续推进。复合肥维持季节性淡季，三聚氰胺开工低 ...