Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery and growth [4][22]. Core Insights - The new housing market is still in need of recovery, with the investment side being weaker than the sales side. The report suggests that the investment recovery pace will be significantly slower than in previous cycles [4][22]. - The report highlights that the sales side is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of demand recovery driven by proactive policies and urban renewal projects [4][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2025, real estate development investment totaled 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, with new starts down 29.6% and construction down 9.1% [5][21]. - The report forecasts a 2025 investment decline of 9.9%, with new starts and completions expected to decrease by 9.7% and 22.6%, respectively [4][22]. Sales Side - The sales area for January-February 2025 was 110 million square meters, down 5.1% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% [21][33]. - The average selling price increased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in pricing despite overall sales volume decline [32][33]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate developers in January-February 2025 were 1.6 trillion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year, but showing signs of improvement compared to previous months [34][36]. - Domestic loans decreased by 6.1%, while self-raised funds saw a smaller decline of 2.1%, indicating a tightening in funding availability [34][36].

以下文章来源于城市财经 ，作者余飞 国家统计局公布： 初步核算，今年前三季度国内生产总值949746亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.8%。 城市财经 . 坐标深圳！一个用数据说话、图文并茂的全国楼市头部自媒体。 作者：余飞 来源： 城市财经（ID： City-Finance ） 10月18日，国家统计局公布了全国前三季度一系列宏观经济数据。这些数据，解答了为何9月末以 来，新一轮针对经济、股市、楼市的提振大招，层出不穷。 GDP 数据公布 01 分季度看，一季度GDP同比增长5.3%，二季度增长4.7%，三季度增长4.6%。 前三季度增速4.8%，三季度增速4.6%。从单季度增速来看，今年的经济增速放缓趋势没有改变。 此外，三季度4.6%的增速，低于此前市场的预测。 之前时代财经统计的多家机构预测的三季度GDP增速数据，集中在4.5%-5.1%之间，6家机构预测均值 在4.7%左右。 | 三季度GDP预测 | | | --- | --- | | 机构 | 预测值 | | 北大汇丰智库 | 4.9% | | 厦门大学宏观经济研究中心 | 5.1 % | | 浙商宏观 | 4.6% | | 华泰证券 | 4.7 ...

这个就是纯房价指数，如果你按照我昨晚的计算原则，把自己买房以来支付的房贷利息，投入的本金（机会成本按无风险国债利率计算）都算进去的话， 我觉得2015-2016年买的也没啥挣头了。 然后就是有人问起我信托的事，监管层早就有规定这类产品禁止公开宣传，所以我不会推荐的。两年前我有个哥们在某机构工作，给我介绍了当时他负责 的产品，锁2年，收益6.4%，买1000的话6.7%，我综合判断觉得性价比还不错。 当时我的房贷利率 4 .1% ， 那边 理财有6.7% ， 中间 息差2.6 %， 这个套利可以做。 现在 两年到期了， 整个社会形势和 两年前大不 一样，底层资产的风险开始增大， 同一个 产品到期续的话收益率 只有4.4-4.5%， 和房贷的 息 差连1%都没了， 这 就不值得 做了， 所以我有考虑提前把贷款还了。 如果后面需要钱到时候再找银行借就是了，现在 都是银行求着 高质量客户 贷款，利息还更低。 我想想，还有用户问房屋断供的事，这个我在社交媒体上看了不少人的经历分享，其实正规媒体也有报道，经济观察报最近就有一篇《断供房贷被冷处 理》，我放了个超链接，你们有兴趣自己点进去看。 《 断供房贷被冷处理 》 房屋 ...