在听取市相关部门和板块政策性资金项目申报储备、2026年省市重大项目编报情况汇报后，李忠 军指出，积极争取政策资金和重大项目，对于扩大有效投资、提振发展信心具有重要作用。各级各部门 要进一步增强紧迫感和责任感，抢抓国家政策机遇的窗口期，找准承接落地的突破口，持续加大项目和 资金谋划争取力度，切实助推高质量发展取得更大成效。 1月4日，代市长李忠军专题研究政策性资金项目申报、重大项目编报工作时强调，要全面落实中 央和省市委经济工作会议精神，按照市委十五届十二次全会部署要求，靠前发力、主动作为，抢抓政策 机遇，精准谋划项目，为高质量发展积蓄强劲动能。市领导霍慧萍、许峰、孙百军、张蕴参加。 李忠军强调，要精准把握政策措施，密切关注超长期特别国债、中央预算内投资、地方政府专项债 等政策性资金投向，认真研究"两重""两新"等一揽子最新政策，积极主动向上沟通汇报，努力争取更多 指导支持，加快把政策红利转化为发展优势。要科学高效谋划项目，牢固树立"项目为王"理念，扎实做 好项目立项、规划等前期工作，提升项目成熟度和申报成功率，确保更多项目纳入国家、省"盘子"。要 持续强化政策宣传，聚焦"两重""两新"政策落实，主动深入走基 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. Recently, the strong iron ore price, positive macro - factors, and larger reduction of short positions in near - month contracts supported the steel price to run strongly. However, short positions in far - month mainstream contracts increased significantly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross at a high level. It is expected that the price may consolidate in a range in the short - term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position volume was 1,200,700 lots, down 100,338 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 72,292 lots, down 25,719 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 17 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,519 tons, down 7,773 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,364 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 181 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 15,050.88 million tons, down 75.04 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 43.33 million tons, up 7.30 million tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 622.40 million tons, up 0.25 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 116.1 million tons, down 0.56 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.56%, down 0.26 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.59%, up 1.74 percentage points; the inventory in sample steel mills was 153.32 million tons, down 7.10 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,475 million tons, up 41 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 928 million tons, down 64 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 652,939 million square meters, down 4,359 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 49,061 million square meters, down 3,662 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 39,645 million square meters, up 292 million square meters [2] Industry News - In mid - November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.43 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.943 billion tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output month - on - month; 17.97 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.797 billion tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.24 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.924 billion tons, a 2.1% increase in daily output month - on - month. Trump said that the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was "very close to being reached", but European leaders were skeptical. White House Press Secretary Levitt said on the 25th that there were still some delicate details in the peace agreement proposed by the US to end the Ukraine crisis, but these problems were not insurmountable [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is bearish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the coking coal and coke market remains bearish. The coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1086.0, a 0.96% decline compared to the opening of the day session. The main coke contract J2601 closed at 1643.0, a 0.64% increase compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1062.5, a 1.75% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the J2601 contract closed at 1593.5, a 3.01% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important Information - Local government special bonds are experiencing a peak in issuance for investment in government - funded funds. Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, and Shanghai will issue a total of 20 billion yuan in special bonds on November 28, which will be injected into the Guangdong Provincial Government Investment Fund, Chengdu Venture Capital Fund, and Shanghai Future Industry Fund respectively. Coupled with the more than 60 billion yuan of relevant special bonds issued in many places before, the total scale of local government special bonds invested in government - funded funds currently disclosed will exceed 80 billion yuan [1] - Recently, the "Work Plan for the Classification and Disposal of Coal Mines below 600,000 Tons/Year in Shaanxi Province" was issued, which mentioned accelerating the classification and disposal of coal mines below 600,000 tons/year and guiding the closure and exit of coal mines with exhausted resources and those without safe production conditions [1] - As of November 21, the daily coal consumption of 493 power plant samples nationwide was 4.091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons. The total on - site coal inventory was 101.691 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.215 million tons, and the available days were 24.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 days [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Affected by the snowfall at the Ganqimaodu Port, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has declined. The sentiment has led to a slight rebound in the day - session market. However, the recent coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The overall sentiment remains bearish. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - After the main coking coal contract rebounds and meets resistance, it falls back. The lower support is at 1050 for the Jm2601 contract and 1150 for the Jm2605 contract. It is regarded as weakly volatile in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Local governments are increasingly attempting to raise funds through debt to enhance local government investment funds, with a notable issuance of 6.52 billion yuan in special bonds by Shenzhen for this purpose [3][4]. Group 1: Special Bonds Issuance - As of this year, cities including Beijing, Jiangsu, Guangzhou, Zhejiang, Ningbo, Shaanxi, Shanghai, Anhui, and Hubei have collectively issued 52 billion yuan in special bonds directed towards local government investment funds [3][5]. - The issuance of special bonds for government investment funds marks a new approach, previously restricted by regulations that prohibited such funding sources [4][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - In late 2022, the State Council expanded the scope of special bonds, allowing them to be directed towards government investment funds, as they were not included in the "negative list" of funding sources [5][6]. - The guidance issued in January 2023 emphasized the need for government investment funds to focus on long-term capital and risk prevention, prohibiting illegal debt financing by local governments [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The use of special bonds to support government investment funds is seen as advantageous due to lower financing costs and the ability to align with policy objectives [6]. - The maturity of special bonds directed towards government investment funds typically ranges from 10 to 20 years, with local government revenue providing a strong backing for these bonds, leading to AAA credit ratings from agencies [6].

Core Viewpoint - Local government special bonds play a crucial role in stabilizing growth and investment, with over 89% of the annual issuance limit already reached by October 30 this year [1] Group 1: Special Bond Issuance - As of October 30, 2023, the issuance of new local government special bonds reached 39,387.21 billion yuan, exceeding 89% of the annual limit, with an expected total of 39,645.81 billion yuan including planned issuances [1] - The new local government special debt limit for 2025 is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year [1] - The top five provinces for new special bond issuance are Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, all showing growth compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Funding Allocation and Support - This year, special bonds have significantly increased support for real estate and government investment funds, broadening the scope of funding allocation [2] - Special bonds are being used innovatively in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang to support government investment funds, which can leverage social capital through government injections [2] - The upcoming months are expected to see a "small peak" in special bond issuance, with over 5,000 billion yuan still available for issuance [2] Group 3: Future Planning and Project Preparation - The preparation for 2026 local special bond projects has already begun, with some provinces notifying localities to prepare project reserves [3] - The early issuance of part of the debt replacement quota for next year is anticipated to help local governments free up more funds for development [3][4] - Industry experts suggest that next year's special bonds will further enhance their role in stabilizing growth, promoting development, and mitigating risks, particularly in infrastructure projects [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing risks associated with local government special bonds in China, highlighting the challenges in debt management and the pressure on local governments to repay these debts due to declining revenues from land sales and project returns [3][5][12]. Summary by Sections Special Bonds and Debt Management - The issuance of special bonds has significantly increased, from approximately 0.1 trillion yuan in 2015 to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with the balance of local government special debt reaching about 35.5 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 67% of total local government debt [5][12]. - Special bonds are intended for public welfare projects, but many projects have underperformed, leading to insufficient returns and increased repayment pressure on local governments [5][6]. Revenue Decline and Financial Pressure - Local government revenue from land sales peaked at about 9.4 trillion yuan in 2021 but has declined for three consecutive years, dropping to approximately 5.7 trillion yuan in 2024 [5][6]. - In the first eight months of 2024, local government revenue from land sales was 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [5]. Audit Findings and Repayment Challenges - Audit reports from various provinces indicate that some local governments are struggling to repay interest on special bonds, with instances of misusing funds to cover these payments [6][7]. - In 2024, local government bond interest payments are projected to be 1.3542 trillion yuan, representing about 7.7% of total local government revenue [7][8]. Government Response and Policy Adjustments - The State Council has introduced measures to optimize the management of local government special bonds, including adjusting the allocation of bond quotas to ensure they align with local financial capabilities and project returns [12][14]. - The new policies aim to expand the sources of repayment funds and encourage local governments to establish reserve funds for bond repayment, thereby mitigating repayment risks [14]. Current Debt Status - As of July 2025, the total local government debt is approximately 52.8 trillion yuan, remaining within the approved debt limit of about 57.9 trillion yuan [14].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid increase in local government special bond balances has raised concerns about repayment pressures, particularly in financially strained regions, prompting national legislative attention [1][2]. Group 1: Special Bond Growth and Impact - The issuance of special bonds has significantly increased to stabilize investment and mitigate risks, supporting numerous major projects and alleviating hidden debt risks for local governments [2]. - The balance of local government special bonds reached approximately 35.5 trillion yuan by July 2025, accounting for about 67% of total local government debt [2]. - Special bonds are intended for public welfare projects, with repayment sourced from government funds or special revenues, but many projects have underperformed, leading to repayment challenges [2][3]. Group 2: Repayment Challenges - Some local governments are struggling to pay interest on special bonds, with reports indicating that certain regions have resorted to using improper funding sources to meet these obligations [4]. - In 2024, local government bond interest payments are projected to be 1.3542 trillion yuan, representing about 7.7% of total local government broad fiscal revenue [4]. - The rising interest payment burden is exacerbated by declining land sale revenues, which have dropped from approximately 9.4 trillion yuan in 2021 to about 5.7 trillion yuan in 2024 [2][5]. Group 3: Government Response and Solutions - The State Council has initiated measures to address the repayment pressures associated with special bonds, including optimizing the allocation of bond quotas to regions with better project readiness and financial capacity [8][9]. - New policies allow local governments to arrange fiscal subsidies for special bond projects and utilize other revenue sources to ensure timely repayment [8][9]. - The overall risk of local government debt is considered manageable, with total local government debt remaining within the approved limit of approximately 57.9 trillion yuan as of July 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has introduced new regulations to enhance the management and utilization of local government special bonds, aiming to standardize accounting practices and improve the efficiency of fund usage [2][3]. Group 1: Regulations Overview - The new regulations, titled "Interim Provisions on Accounting Treatment Related to Local Government Special Bonds," will take effect on January 1, 2026, and are designed to address discrepancies in financial reporting among project units receiving special bond funds [2][4]. - Special bonds are issued for public welfare projects with expected revenue, using government fund income or special revenue as repayment sources. The issuance scale of special bonds has rapidly increased, reaching 4.4 trillion yuan this year, with total local government special debt amounting to approximately 35.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 67% of total local government debt [2][3]. Group 2: Accounting Treatment - The regulations specify accounting treatment for both administrative and enterprise project units, ensuring accurate reflection of financial status and reinforcing management responsibilities [4]. - Project units must determine their repayment obligations based on project implementation plans or financing balance plans, confirming liabilities only if specified in these documents [4]. Group 3: Information Management - Project units are required to prepare "Special Bond Project Investment Tables" and "Special Bond Fund Repayment Situation Tables," collecting comprehensive data on fund receipts, repayments, expenditures, and asset formation [4][5]. - The lack of a systematic information reporting and aggregation framework has hindered the comprehensive understanding of special bond projects. The new requirements aim to provide lifecycle information for each project, supporting effective management and decision-making at both regional and national levels [5].

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Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]