2025.11. 18 本文字数：1262，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 越来越多地方开始尝试举债来充实当地政府投资基金。 不过去年底的国务院办公厅发布《关于优化完善地方政府专项债券管理机制的意见》，扩大专项债券 投向领域，其中对口专项债券投向领域采取了"负面清单"管理，未纳入"负面清单"的项目均可申请专 项债券资金。而政府投资基金并不在"负面清单"之中，多位接受第一财经采访的专家表示，这意味着 专项债被允许投向政府投资基金等股权基金。 今年1月，国务院办公厅发布《关于促进政府投资基金高质量发展的指导意见》（下称《意见》）， 其中在部署政府投资基金找准定位，更好服务国家发展大局时要求，发展壮大长期资本、耐心资本， 比如积极引导全国社会保障基金、保险资金等长期资本出资。 为防控风险，上述《意见》要求加强政府投资基金风险防范，严禁地方政府通过违法违规举债融资进 行出资，不得新增地方政府隐性债务，不得强制要求国有企业、金融机构出资或垫资。 在这一背景之下，地方密集发行专项债投向政府投资引导基金。 中证鹏元研发部高级董事吴志武认为，近年来地方经济发展趋缓，地方财政收入增速下降，支出压力 较为突出，导 ...

Core Viewpoint - Local government special bonds play a crucial role in stabilizing growth and investment, with over 89% of the annual issuance limit already reached by October 30 this year [1] Group 1: Special Bond Issuance - As of October 30, 2023, the issuance of new local government special bonds reached 39,387.21 billion yuan, exceeding 89% of the annual limit, with an expected total of 39,645.81 billion yuan including planned issuances [1] - The new local government special debt limit for 2025 is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year [1] - The top five provinces for new special bond issuance are Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, all showing growth compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Funding Allocation and Support - This year, special bonds have significantly increased support for real estate and government investment funds, broadening the scope of funding allocation [2] - Special bonds are being used innovatively in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang to support government investment funds, which can leverage social capital through government injections [2] - The upcoming months are expected to see a "small peak" in special bond issuance, with over 5,000 billion yuan still available for issuance [2] Group 3: Future Planning and Project Preparation - The preparation for 2026 local special bond projects has already begun, with some provinces notifying localities to prepare project reserves [3] - The early issuance of part of the debt replacement quota for next year is anticipated to help local governments free up more funds for development [3][4] - Industry experts suggest that next year's special bonds will further enhance their role in stabilizing growth, promoting development, and mitigating risks, particularly in infrastructure projects [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing risks associated with local government special bonds in China, highlighting the challenges in debt management and the pressure on local governments to repay these debts due to declining revenues from land sales and project returns [3][5][12]. Summary by Sections Special Bonds and Debt Management - The issuance of special bonds has significantly increased, from approximately 0.1 trillion yuan in 2015 to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with the balance of local government special debt reaching about 35.5 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 67% of total local government debt [5][12]. - Special bonds are intended for public welfare projects, but many projects have underperformed, leading to insufficient returns and increased repayment pressure on local governments [5][6]. Revenue Decline and Financial Pressure - Local government revenue from land sales peaked at about 9.4 trillion yuan in 2021 but has declined for three consecutive years, dropping to approximately 5.7 trillion yuan in 2024 [5][6]. - In the first eight months of 2024, local government revenue from land sales was 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [5]. Audit Findings and Repayment Challenges - Audit reports from various provinces indicate that some local governments are struggling to repay interest on special bonds, with instances of misusing funds to cover these payments [6][7]. - In 2024, local government bond interest payments are projected to be 1.3542 trillion yuan, representing about 7.7% of total local government revenue [7][8]. Government Response and Policy Adjustments - The State Council has introduced measures to optimize the management of local government special bonds, including adjusting the allocation of bond quotas to ensure they align with local financial capabilities and project returns [12][14]. - The new policies aim to expand the sources of repayment funds and encourage local governments to establish reserve funds for bond repayment, thereby mitigating repayment risks [14]. Current Debt Status - As of July 2025, the total local government debt is approximately 52.8 trillion yuan, remaining within the approved debt limit of about 57.9 trillion yuan [14].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid increase in local government special bond balances has raised concerns about repayment pressures, particularly in financially strained regions, prompting national legislative attention [1][2]. Group 1: Special Bond Growth and Impact - The issuance of special bonds has significantly increased to stabilize investment and mitigate risks, supporting numerous major projects and alleviating hidden debt risks for local governments [2]. - The balance of local government special bonds reached approximately 35.5 trillion yuan by July 2025, accounting for about 67% of total local government debt [2]. - Special bonds are intended for public welfare projects, with repayment sourced from government funds or special revenues, but many projects have underperformed, leading to repayment challenges [2][3]. Group 2: Repayment Challenges - Some local governments are struggling to pay interest on special bonds, with reports indicating that certain regions have resorted to using improper funding sources to meet these obligations [4]. - In 2024, local government bond interest payments are projected to be 1.3542 trillion yuan, representing about 7.7% of total local government broad fiscal revenue [4]. - The rising interest payment burden is exacerbated by declining land sale revenues, which have dropped from approximately 9.4 trillion yuan in 2021 to about 5.7 trillion yuan in 2024 [2][5]. Group 3: Government Response and Solutions - The State Council has initiated measures to address the repayment pressures associated with special bonds, including optimizing the allocation of bond quotas to regions with better project readiness and financial capacity [8][9]. - New policies allow local governments to arrange fiscal subsidies for special bond projects and utilize other revenue sources to ensure timely repayment [8][9]. - The overall risk of local government debt is considered manageable, with total local government debt remaining within the approved limit of approximately 57.9 trillion yuan as of July 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has introduced new regulations to enhance the management and utilization of local government special bonds, aiming to standardize accounting practices and improve the efficiency of fund usage [2][3]. Group 1: Regulations Overview - The new regulations, titled "Interim Provisions on Accounting Treatment Related to Local Government Special Bonds," will take effect on January 1, 2026, and are designed to address discrepancies in financial reporting among project units receiving special bond funds [2][4]. - Special bonds are issued for public welfare projects with expected revenue, using government fund income or special revenue as repayment sources. The issuance scale of special bonds has rapidly increased, reaching 4.4 trillion yuan this year, with total local government special debt amounting to approximately 35.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 67% of total local government debt [2][3]. Group 2: Accounting Treatment - The regulations specify accounting treatment for both administrative and enterprise project units, ensuring accurate reflection of financial status and reinforcing management responsibilities [4]. - Project units must determine their repayment obligations based on project implementation plans or financing balance plans, confirming liabilities only if specified in these documents [4]. Group 3: Information Management - Project units are required to prepare "Special Bond Project Investment Tables" and "Special Bond Fund Repayment Situation Tables," collecting comprehensive data on fund receipts, repayments, expenditures, and asset formation [4][5]. - The lack of a systematic information reporting and aggregation framework has hindered the comprehensive understanding of special bond projects. The new requirements aim to provide lifecycle information for each project, supporting effective management and decision-making at both regional and national levels [5].

《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展》，其中提到，着力解决拖欠民营企业账款问题。用好新增地方政府专项债等政策，切实加快清欠进度。健全法律法规，强化失信惩戒。（新华社） ...

Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strict regulatory measures imposed by provincial governments on the issuance and use of special bonds, aimed at preventing misuse and ensuring funds are allocated to actual projects rather than being diverted to other areas [2][3][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - Several provinces have intensified management of special bond funds, requiring dedicated fiscal accounts for these funds and mandating timely reporting on fund usage and project status [4]. - Counties with issues related to special bonds are prohibited from issuing new bonds until they rectify the problems [5]. - The audit results revealed that 1,325.97 billion yuan was mismanaged, with 651.8 billion yuan being misappropriated for other uses, highlighting the need for stringent oversight [6][10]. Group 2: Misuse of Special Bonds - Misuse of special bonds has been prevalent, with funds being redirected to cover general expenditures rather than being used for designated projects, violating the intended purpose of these bonds [10][11]. - Local governments have employed various methods to misappropriate special bond funds, including circular financing through affiliated companies [7][8]. - The pressure to maintain "three guarantees" (basic living needs, education, and healthcare) has driven local governments to divert special bond funds to cover budget shortfalls [11][13]. Group 3: Impact on Local Governments - The tightening of special bond regulations may lead to reduced flexibility in fund allocation for local governments, potentially causing financial strain in the short term [15]. - The changes in special bond usage rules disproportionately affect lower-tier governments, which often rely on these funds for liquidity [16]. - The article suggests that while the immediate impact may be challenging for financially constrained regions, long-term compliance with regulations could enhance fiscal discipline and transparency [15][16].

Group 1 - Ningxia issued a 15-year special local government bond for healthcare with a scale of 0.66 billion and an issuance rate of 1.94% [1] - The marginal multiple for the healthcare bond was 1.30 times, with an expected multiple of 2.18 [1] - Ningxia also issued a 10-year special local government bond for urban renewal with a scale of 1.00 billion and an issuance rate of 1.79% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the urban renewal bond was 3.00 times, with an expected multiple of 2.34 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 100 billion yuan in special bonds by the Beijing government for the first time to fund a government investment guidance fund is a significant development, aimed at leveraging fiscal funds to attract more social capital for local industrial development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The special bonds are 10-year fixed-rate bonds, with a total planned issuance of 100 billion yuan, starting from June 27 [2]. - This marks the first instance of local government special bonds being allocated to a government investment guidance fund, which has garnered significant attention [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The use of special bonds for government investment funds was previously restricted, but a regulatory change in December 2024 expanded the scope of special bonds to include investment in government guidance funds [2][3]. - The new regulations allow for a broader range of projects to apply for special bond funding, including emerging industries like information technology and digital economy [2]. Group 3: Investment Fund Performance - The Beijing government investment guidance fund has been an active player in the venture capital space, contributing to nine funds with a total investment of 941 billion yuan since 2024 [3]. - The fund's recent capital increase from 100.1 billion yuan to 250.1 billion yuan represents a 150% growth, indicating strong backing and potential for future investments [3]. Group 4: Market Implications - The introduction of special bonds for government investment funds is expected to be replicable in other cities, potentially leading to a broader trend in local government financing [4]. - However, the effectiveness of these funds remains a concern, as the average DPI (Distributions to Paid-In) for government guidance funds is only 0.7, raising questions about investor confidence [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The reliance of local government investment guidance funds on public fiscal budgets poses challenges, especially as many local governments face tightening fiscal conditions [6][7]. - The recent issuance of special bonds may create a new financing channel independent of traditional fiscal budgets, but the future scale and impact of such bonds remain to be observed [7].