《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展》，其中提到，着力解决拖欠民营企业账款问题。用好新增地方政府专项债等政策，切实加快清欠进度。健全法律法规，强化失信惩戒。（新华社） ...

Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strict regulatory measures imposed by provincial governments on the issuance and use of special bonds, aimed at preventing misuse and ensuring funds are allocated to actual projects rather than being diverted to other areas [2][3][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - Several provinces have intensified management of special bond funds, requiring dedicated fiscal accounts for these funds and mandating timely reporting on fund usage and project status [4]. - Counties with issues related to special bonds are prohibited from issuing new bonds until they rectify the problems [5]. - The audit results revealed that 1,325.97 billion yuan was mismanaged, with 651.8 billion yuan being misappropriated for other uses, highlighting the need for stringent oversight [6][10]. Group 2: Misuse of Special Bonds - Misuse of special bonds has been prevalent, with funds being redirected to cover general expenditures rather than being used for designated projects, violating the intended purpose of these bonds [10][11]. - Local governments have employed various methods to misappropriate special bond funds, including circular financing through affiliated companies [7][8]. - The pressure to maintain "three guarantees" (basic living needs, education, and healthcare) has driven local governments to divert special bond funds to cover budget shortfalls [11][13]. Group 3: Impact on Local Governments - The tightening of special bond regulations may lead to reduced flexibility in fund allocation for local governments, potentially causing financial strain in the short term [15]. - The changes in special bond usage rules disproportionately affect lower-tier governments, which often rely on these funds for liquidity [16]. - The article suggests that while the immediate impact may be challenging for financially constrained regions, long-term compliance with regulations could enhance fiscal discipline and transparency [15][16].

Group 1 - Ningxia issued a 15-year special local government bond for healthcare with a scale of 0.66 billion and an issuance rate of 1.94% [1] - The marginal multiple for the healthcare bond was 1.30 times, with an expected multiple of 2.18 [1] - Ningxia also issued a 10-year special local government bond for urban renewal with a scale of 1.00 billion and an issuance rate of 1.79% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the urban renewal bond was 3.00 times, with an expected multiple of 2.34 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 100 billion yuan in special bonds by the Beijing government for the first time to fund a government investment guidance fund is a significant development, aimed at leveraging fiscal funds to attract more social capital for local industrial development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The special bonds are 10-year fixed-rate bonds, with a total planned issuance of 100 billion yuan, starting from June 27 [2]. - This marks the first instance of local government special bonds being allocated to a government investment guidance fund, which has garnered significant attention [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The use of special bonds for government investment funds was previously restricted, but a regulatory change in December 2024 expanded the scope of special bonds to include investment in government guidance funds [2][3]. - The new regulations allow for a broader range of projects to apply for special bond funding, including emerging industries like information technology and digital economy [2]. Group 3: Investment Fund Performance - The Beijing government investment guidance fund has been an active player in the venture capital space, contributing to nine funds with a total investment of 941 billion yuan since 2024 [3]. - The fund's recent capital increase from 100.1 billion yuan to 250.1 billion yuan represents a 150% growth, indicating strong backing and potential for future investments [3]. Group 4: Market Implications - The introduction of special bonds for government investment funds is expected to be replicable in other cities, potentially leading to a broader trend in local government financing [4]. - However, the effectiveness of these funds remains a concern, as the average DPI (Distributions to Paid-In) for government guidance funds is only 0.7, raising questions about investor confidence [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The reliance of local government investment guidance funds on public fiscal budgets poses challenges, especially as many local governments face tightening fiscal conditions [6][7]. - The recent issuance of special bonds may create a new financing channel independent of traditional fiscal budgets, but the future scale and impact of such bonds remain to be observed [7].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple provinces in China have announced their 2025 budget adjustment plans, focusing on the allocation of newly issued special bonds to address issues such as project construction, government fund supplementation, and settling overdue payments to enterprises [1][4]. Group 1: Budget Adjustments and Debt Allocation - The total scale of new local special bonds for this year is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - Provinces with significant existing debt pressures are allocating a larger portion of new special bonds to resolve existing debt rather than for new project construction [1][6]. - Specific allocations in provinces like Hunan and Yunnan show a clear emphasis on addressing overdue payments to enterprises, with Hunan allocating 200 billion yuan and Yunnan 356 billion yuan for this purpose [2][3]. Group 2: Focus on Settling Overdue Payments - The issue of settling overdue payments to enterprises has been highlighted as a separate project in budget plans, indicating its growing importance [1][2]. - The central government has signaled a stronger focus on resolving overdue payments, with plans to utilize special bonds for this purpose [4][5]. - The allocation of funds for settling overdue payments is seen as a critical measure to alleviate financial pressures on enterprises and prevent further debt accumulation [6][7]. Group 3: Recommendations and Future Outlook - Recommendations from local financial committees suggest prioritizing the allocation of new debt to ongoing projects and addressing high-risk areas to prevent incomplete projects [7]. - There is a call for optimizing the structure of debt allocation to ensure that both debt resolution and development goals are met without excessive growth in legal debt levels [7]. - Experts emphasize the need for a balanced approach to managing existing debt while fostering development, particularly in regions with heavy debt burdens [7].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the establishment of a "three-in-one" funding guarantee mechanism involving central budget investment, ultra-long-term special bonds, and special bonds to support local government projects in key areas [1] - Local government special bonds currently focus on supporting ten key areas, including transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, ecological protection, social undertakings, logistics infrastructure, municipal and industrial parks, major national strategic projects, affordable housing, and new infrastructure [2] Group 2 - The detailed categories of projects supported by local government special bonds include various subfields such as railways, highways, renewable energy bases, urban sewage treatment, and affordable housing projects [3][4] - There is a clear list of prohibited projects for local government special bonds, which includes projects with no revenue, government office buildings, image projects, real estate developments (excluding affordable housing), and general competitive industry projects [5] Group 3 - The application process for local government special bonds involves several steps, including project proposal submission, project information entry into the provincial government bond management platform, initial review by relevant departments, and expert evaluation [6][7] - Required documentation for the application includes implementation plans, feasibility studies, financial evaluation reports, planning permits, project approval documents, environmental impact assessments, and income projections [8][9]

Core Insights - In April, local governments in China issued a total of 176.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, with 71.7 billion yuan directed towards real estate-related sectors, accounting for 40% of the total, an increase of 8 percentage points from March [1] - The specific allocation for real estate was 33.6 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 30% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to April, the total issuance of new special bonds reached 1.1 trillion yuan, with 389.1 billion yuan allocated to real estate-related sectors, making up 35% of the total, and 164.6 billion yuan specifically earmarked for real estate, which is 15% of the total [1]

Core Points - Jiangxi issued a 5-year special local government bond for urban renovation with a scale of 659.27 million, an issuance rate of 1.5800%, and a marginal multiple of 1.85, compared to an expected multiple of 1.63 [1] - Jiangxi issued a 7-year special local government bond for urban renovation with a scale of 1.06901 billion, an issuance rate of 1.6400%, and a marginal multiple of 1.51, compared to an expected multiple of 1.69 [1] - Jiangxi issued a 10-year high-quality development special local government bond with a scale of 45.42 million, an issuance rate of 1.8300%, and a marginal multiple of 3.89, compared to an expected multiple of 1.76 [1] - Jiangxi issued a 15-year high-quality development special local government bond with a scale of 180.80 million, an issuance rate of 1.8500%, and a marginal multiple of 1.16, compared to an expected multiple of 1.96 [1] - Jiangxi issued a 20-year high-quality development special local government bond with a scale of 256.72 million, an issuance rate of 1.9700%, and a marginal multiple of 1.36, compared to an expected multiple of 2.05 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new policy on the acquisition of existing residential properties shows significant relaxation compared to previous regulations, which is expected to resolve previous bottlenecks in the process [1][11]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The government has introduced greater autonomy for local governments regarding the acquisition of existing residential properties, including flexibility in acquisition subjects, pricing, and usage [1][3][11]. - The government work report has expanded the scope of guaranteed housing refinancing, allowing for a broader range of funding sources for property acquisition [1][10]. Pricing Issues - Previously, the acquisition price was mandated to be based on replacement cost, which was approximately half of the market price, leading to reluctance from developers to sell [3][4]. - The new policy allows local governments to negotiate acquisition prices that are higher than replacement costs but lower than market prices, potentially alleviating previous pricing barriers [3][4][6]. Acquisition Models - The relaxation of restrictions on acquisition subjects and purposes is expected to lead to more diversified acquisition models, allowing for participation from various market entities beyond local state-owned enterprises [6][7][11]. - The government has emphasized the priority of using acquired properties for affordable housing, urban village redevelopment, and other community needs [6][11]. Funding Sources - The expansion of the guaranteed housing refinancing program is anticipated to provide a richer array of funding sources for property acquisition, including residential, commercial, and other types of properties [9][10]. - Local governments are encouraged to utilize special bonds, with a proposed allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan for various projects, including the acquisition of existing residential properties [11].