Economic Activity - Economic activity has slightly declined since the last report, with half of the Federal Reserve districts reporting a moderate decline [1] - Three Federal Reserve districts reported no change, while three reported slight growth [1] Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior - All Federal Reserve districts reported an increase in economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitancy in decision-making among businesses and households [1] - Consumer spending reports were mixed, with most districts indicating slight declines or no change, although some reported increased spending on items affected by tariffs [1] Manufacturing and Real Estate - Manufacturing activity has seen a slight decline [1] - Residential real estate sales remained nearly unchanged, with most districts reporting stable or slowing new home construction activity [1] Banking and Transportation - Reports on bank loan demand and capital expenditure plans were mixed [1] - Port activity was strong, while transportation and warehousing activities reported mixed results across different regions [1] Overall Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, with no change compared to the last report [1] - Some districts indicated a worsening outlook, while others reported improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Latin American smartphone market experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments reaching 33.7 million units [1][8]. Market Performance - Samsung led the market with 11.9 million units shipped, a 7% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for entry-level models A06 and A16 [1][8]. - Xiaomi ranked second with 5.9 million units, a 10% increase, supported by the popularity of the Redmi 14C 4G and Note 14 series [1][8]. - Motorola fell to third place with 5.2 million units, a 13% decline, due to its reliance on low-end products like G15 and G05 [1][8]. - Honor's strong performance with the X series led to a 2% increase in shipments to 2.6 million units, securing the fourth position [1][8]. - Transsion ranked fifth with 2.1 million units, experiencing a significant 38% decline, marking its first drop in the region [1][8]. Market Trends - The smartphone market in Latin America showed a clear polarization, with growth concentrated in entry-level and high-end segments, while the mid-range market, which accounts for 78% of total shipments, remains the primary battleground [2][7]. - Economic uncertainty, particularly concerns over tariff increases, has severely impacted the market, leading manufacturers to tighten aggressive sales strategies and retailers to reduce inventory [2][7]. - The Brazilian market was the only one among the top five to see growth, with a 3% increase in shipments to 9.5 million units, driven by increased investments from Chinese brands like Honor, Xiaomi, and realme [4][5]. Future Outlook - Canalys predicts a slight decline of 1% in the Latin American smartphone market for 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties and potential inflation [7]. - Manufacturers are expected to focus on maintaining lean and flexible inventory management, optimizing product portfolios, and enhancing consumer experience to remain competitive in a redefined growth environment [7].

市场参与者正将目光聚焦于即将陆续出炉的关键数据。在周五非农就业报告公布前，周三晚间的ADP民 间就业数据将成为重要风向标。分析师普遍认为，这些数据将为判断美联储政策走向提供更多线索，进 而影响黄金市场的投资逻辑。 站在当前时点观察，黄金市场正面临三重力量的角力：就业市场韧性带来的压力、贸易不确定性提供的 支撑，以及货币政策宽松预期的潜在利好。历史经验表明，在经济不确定性加剧时期，黄金往往能展现 其独特的避险魅力。 但投资者需要警惕的是，若贸易紧张局势出现实质性缓和，或美国经济数据持续超预期强劲，黄金可能 面临短期抛压。不过从OECD预警和美联储态度来看，全球经济下行风险仍在累积，这或将为黄金构筑 中长期的价值支撑。 昨日金价出现下跌，但整体前景依然看涨，未来几周可能涨向3450-3500美元/盎司。今日下方关注3342 美元或3327美元附近支撑；上方关注3380美元或3410美元附近阻力。 摘要周三（6月4日）欧市盘中，国际黄金短线小幅上涨，目前交投于3354.83美元/盎司，涨幅0.06%， 最高上探3372.49美元/盎司，最低触及3346.09美元/盎司。 周三（6月4日）欧市盘中，国际黄金短线小幅上 ...

道明证券加拿大及全球利率策略主管Andrew Kelvin表示："我认为加拿大央行在今年剩余时间里难以确 定全球贸易形势的发展，但加拿大国内经济已经足够有韧性，加拿大央行有能力等到7月再行动。" 特朗普对包括钢铁、铝、汽车以及不符合北美贸易协定的产品在内的多种加拿大商品征收关税，损害了 劳动力市场，削弱了企业和消费者的信心。但加拿大核心通胀正在上升，第一季度经济表现超出预期， 部分原因是企业赶在关税生效前将更多商品运往美国。 加拿大央行可能不会提供太多前瞻性指引，但随着关税带来的冲击加剧，经济学家和市场预计该行今年 晚些时候将进一步降息。鉴于未来经济可能受损，决策者维持鸽派基调的可能性有所增加。 智通财经APP获悉，加拿大央行将于北京时间周三21:45公布利率决议。市场预计加拿大央行将维持隔 夜利率在2.75%不变，这将是连续第二次暂停降息，因为加拿大央行官员们正在等待美国总统唐纳德·特 朗普的贸易战最终将如何影响经济的更明确信号。 加拿大央行官员们可能会重申，如果经济数据恶化，或者如果他们认为有足够的信息来了解贸易争端将 如何发展，他们将迅速采取行动。但就目前而言，缺乏明确的信息可能会迫使他们按兵不动。 加 ...

美国4月JOLTS职位空缺意外增加至739.1万人，预期会从修正之后的720万个下降至710万人。美国4月 份职位空缺数量意外增加，且涨幅较大，招聘活动也出现回暖，表明尽管经济不确定性加剧，但对劳动 力的需求依然强劲。职位空缺数量的增加主要由私营部门行业推动，例如专业和商业服务以及医疗保健 和社会援助。尽管州和地方教育导致政府部门职位空缺总体减少，但联邦政府部门的职位空缺有所增 加。职位空缺数量的增加，加上稳定的招聘和低失业率，支持了美联储关于就业市场良好的说法。 ...

会议纪要显示，委员会认为将现金利率降至3.85%的25基点降息方案是＂更有力的选择＂。 会议纪要中提到："仅国内经济形势的发展就足以支持降息，而全球贸易政策的变化更强化了采取这一 行动的必要性。"这表明，在经历了三年抑制通胀的努力后，澳联储已经将其政策重心转向了因特朗普 政府关税政策引发的经济风险。 新华财经北京6月3日电（崔凯）澳洲联储（RBA）于周二公布了5月19-20日的会议纪要显示，该行最终 决定如市场普遍预期将借贷成本下调25个基点，部分原因是为了确保"在不确定性加剧之际，货币政策 设定保持可预测性"。 会议纪要显示，澳洲联储在面对全球经济增长放缓和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的背景下，考虑了更为激进 的货币政策措施，即降息50个基点。然而，在权衡了各种因素之后，澳洲联储最终决定采取较为保守的 做法，仅将官方现金利率下调25个基点至3.85%。 尽管澳大利亚尚未直接受到关税冲击，但作为小型开放经济体，它高度依赖海外经济活动和市场情绪， 可能会因其他国家受到的影响而间接承压。澳洲联储强调，关税及政策不确定性已"造成对澳大利亚主 要贸易伙伴增长前景的负面影响"。然而，目前尚无明确迹象表明美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：警惕地观察关税税率将如何影响经济的不确定性，各国关税政策发展中的不确 定性极高。 ...

据上观新闻报道，美国商务部日前发布的数据显示，2025年第一季度，美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比出现萎缩。观察人士认为，受美国政府加征关税影 响，企业大幅增加进口提前囤货，拖累了一季度经济增长。长期来看，美关税政策持续将加剧不确定性，可能导致通胀和失业率上升，关税对美国经济的冲 击效应未来可能进一步显现。数据显示，今年一季度美国GDP环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%。这是2022年以来美国经济的最差季度表现。 耐克（资料图） 不仅如此，微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨表示，美国总统特朗普的关税计划给已经不稳定的长期就业前景增加了进一步的不确定性，并可能使企业推迟重要的 投资。盖茨一直对特朗普的一些行动持温和批评态度，比如组建政府效率部（DOGE）以及相关的对外援助支出削减。在上周末的一次采访中，这位身价 1130亿美元的富豪表示，他也对特朗普的主要关税政策感到担忧。盖茨表示，他"最大的担忧"是经济的不确定性。盖茨最近告诉《财富》杂志，他将把"几 乎全部"财富捐赠给他的同名基金会。 具体来看，第一季度净出口对GDP的拖累达4.83个百分点。这表明企业对未来关税可能上升感到担忧，从而大规模囤积库存；占美国经济总量约70%的个人 ...

惠誉评级表示，在经济不确定性的影响下，美国优质信用卡的表现正在减弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies aim to reshape global trade order and promote U.S. re-industrialization, with a focus on generating new revenue sources through tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Impact - Trump imposed high tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners within 40 days, with China facing the highest tariffs, reaching 145% on certain goods [4][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has reached historical highs, significantly impacting market confidence and leading to increased concerns among businesses [2][6]. - A temporary suspension of tariffs was announced for 90 days, reducing tariffs from 49% to 10% for certain countries, but China remained unaffected [4][7]. Group 2: Business Challenges - U.S. businesses, particularly small companies reliant on Chinese imports, faced severe challenges due to rising costs and declining sales, leading to cash flow issues [9][10]. - Major retailers like Walmart indicated they could not fully absorb tariff costs, leading to price increases for consumers [11][12]. - The toy industry, represented by companies like Mattel, anticipated price hikes due to tariffs, with significant portions of their products manufactured in China [12][13]. Group 3: Agricultural Sector Impact - U.S. farmers have suffered significant losses due to trade wars, with agricultural exports dropping by over $27 billion during Trump's first term [15][18]. - California pistachio growers, heavily reliant on the Chinese market, faced potential devastating losses due to tariffs [16][17]. - The soybean export market has seen a drastic decline, with exports to China dropping by 75% since the onset of the trade war [18]. Group 4: Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has been negatively affected by tariff policies, with a reported decline in consumer sentiment index [20][21]. - The uncertainty and rising costs associated with tariffs have led to a significant reduction in imports at major California ports, indicating broader economic impacts [22]. - The recent agreement to reduce tariffs between the U.S. and China has provided some clarity, but economists warn of potential economic slowdowns in the coming quarters [23][24].