Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% during its monetary policy meeting, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - There is significant uncertainty regarding future monetary policy due to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the government shutdown affecting key economic data, and ongoing pressures to balance employment and inflation risks [1][2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased from 90% to below 70% following the Fed's cautious stance [2] Economic Indicators - Employment growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below market expectations [2][3] - The personal consumption expenditure price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, exceeding the Fed's long-term inflation target of 2% [3] - Tariff policies have contributed to a 0.44% increase in core personal consumption expenditures, with inflation projected to rise to 3% by December [3] Labor Market Trends - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with significant job cuts announced by major companies like Amazon and Target, indicating a broader trend of declining employment opportunities [3] - The private sector experienced the largest drop in employment since March 2023, further highlighting the challenges in the labor market [3] Federal Reserve and Government Relations - Tensions remain between the Federal Reserve and the White House, as government officials have pressured the Fed for more aggressive rate cuts, which the Fed has not committed to [4] - The potential appointment of a successor to Fed Chair Powell, who is expected to support lower borrowing costs, raises concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy and its ability to manage inflation [5]

新华社北京10月30日电 题：美联储货币政策面临多重困扰 新华社记者陈斯达 美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）29日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一步降息并 非板上钉钉。分析人士认为，在美联储内部分歧加剧、联邦政府"停摆"导致重要经济数据缺失、平衡就 业和通胀风险压力仍存等因素困扰下，美联储未来货币政策面临很大的不确定性。 这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。美联储决策机构联 邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示，今年就业增长放缓，失业率上升，通胀率自年初 以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鲍威尔在货币政策会议结束后举行的记者会上强调，在平衡就业 和通胀这两大目标的过程中，美联储政策制定"没有绝对安全的路径"。 分析人士指出，多重因素迫使美联储谨慎行事。 美联储内部对于12月如何决策进一步显现分歧。美联储内部"存在非常不同的观点"。美联储理事斯蒂芬 ·米兰主张更大幅度地降息，堪萨斯城联储银行行长杰弗里·施密德则主张维持利率不变。施密德警告 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [3][15] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, highlighting uncertainty in future monetary policy decisions [4][15] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 in favor of the rate cut, marking the fifth reduction since September 2024 [3][15] - Economic indicators show moderate expansion in U.S. economic activity, with a slight increase in unemployment and rising inflation rates [3][15] Economic Context - Powell noted that the government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed's assessment of the economy [4][15] - The balance between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment remains a challenge for the Fed [4][15] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices reached new intraday highs following the Fed's announcement, with the Nasdaq up 3.05% [7][8] - Oil prices increased due to a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude and fuel inventories [9][10] Analyst Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts continued rate cuts until January 2026, with a potential target range of 3.00% to 3.25% [6][15] - Franklin Templeton predicts that inflation concerns may limit the extent of future rate cuts [6][15] Internal Fed Dynamics - There are differing opinions within the Fed regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts, with some members advocating for more aggressive actions [15][17] - The relationship between the Fed and the White House remains tense, with potential implications for the Fed's independence and inflation control [17][15]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of the results from economic and trade consultations with the U.S. and expresses hope for effective implementation to enhance certainty and stability in China-U.S. economic cooperation and the global economy [1] Group 2 - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has publicly reported two typical issues related to reducing formalism and alleviating burdens on grassroots levels [2] Group 3 - In the first three quarters, revenue from large-scale cultural enterprises in China grew by 7.9%, driven significantly by the cultural service industry and the rapid development of new cultural business formats [7] Group 4 - A report indicates that China's share of globally recognized "hot" papers has surpassed 50%, reaching 53.2%, maintaining the top position worldwide, while the number of highly cited papers ranks second globally, with a narrowing gap with the U.S. [8] Group 5 - The Shenzhou-20 mission is expected to set a new record for the longest duration of a Chinese astronaut crew in space, currently at 188 days, with smooth progress reported for the mission [11] Group 6 - A research team from the Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology has discovered a complex three-dimensional animal burrow fossil dating back approximately 550 million years, marking it as one of the oldest known complex animal cave fossils [14] Group 7 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, with Chairman Powell indicating that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, amidst increasing internal divisions and uncertainties in economic data [21]

Group 1: US-China Relations - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump lasted approximately 1 hour and 40 minutes, focusing on strengthening economic cooperation and addressing trade issues [1] - The US agreed to cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and will continue to suspend the 24% equivalent tariff for one year, while China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly [1] - Both sides reached a consensus on various issues, including drug cooperation, expanding agricultural trade, and handling specific corporate cases, indicating a commitment to dialogue and cooperation [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year and a total reduction of 50 basis points in 2023 [2][6] - The Fed announced it would stop quantitative tightening starting December 1, with maturing agency debt being reinvested in Treasury securities [6] - There is significant disagreement among FOMC members regarding future rate cuts, with some advocating for a pause in rate adjustments [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Hong Kong stock market saw a short-term rally, with the Hang Seng Index turning positive, influenced by the news of the US suspending tariffs and export controls [4] - US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield maintaining an increase of over 8 basis points, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's decisions [3][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the unexpected market downturn despite positive developments in US-China negotiations and a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and halt balance sheet reduction was in line with market expectations, leading to a calm market reaction [2] - The first wave of news from the US-China summit was vague, lacking specific outcomes, which left investors disappointed and contributed to the market decline [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need to focus on domestic issues, suggesting two key directions for attention [1]

来源：市场资讯 回到盘面黄金1小时级别，上方阻力压制点关注4030一线，目前是多头上涨承压关键点，只有突破这 里，多头才有延续上涨的动能，下方支撑3916昨日两次试探的低点位置，跌破这里则进一步走低下探至 3886区域。鉴于美联储降息之后并未让黄金上涨，短期黄金多头已经无力回天，凌晨反弹修正高点在 3980附近，但现在的价格如果再到了3980，一定是难跌，这只能是定义空头防守，早盘反弹的高点在 3966，接下来就依托早盘高点3966下方去空，下方关注3916得失，跌破3916都去跟随空，多耐心等待 3916不破企稳后可以去尝试 10月30日，周三的观点，早间出现了探底回升之后，我们建议可以依托低点为防守去看直涨，破位4000 后看续涨一波，盘面价格一度触及到4030附近承压盘整，凌晨美联储如期降息25个基准点，但随后的鲍 威尔的鹰派讲话打破了市场此前对美联储可能采取更宽松货币政策的预期，鲍威尔表示12月美联储可能 不会降息，市场迅速做出反应，美元黄金闻声同跌，黄金打消了周三亚欧盘上涨的全部空间，再度触及 3916低点。 黄金日线图先扬后抑收低回落，日线报收带有上长影线的小阴K线，日线结构一波连阴的回撤，拉动短 ...

美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）29日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一步降息并 非板上钉钉。分析人士认为，在美联储内部分歧加剧、联邦政府"停摆"导致重要经济数据缺失、平衡就 业和通胀风险压力仍存等因素困扰下，美联储未来货币政策面临很大的不确定性。 这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。美联储决策机构联 邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示，今年就业增长放缓，失业率上升，通胀率自年初 以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鲍威尔在货币政策会议结束后举行的记者会上强调，在平衡就业 和通胀这两大目标的过程中，美联储政策制定"没有绝对安全的路径"。 联邦政府已"停摆"数周，导致数据收集和报告工作暂停，这让美联储无法获取消费等关键数据。鲍威尔 反复提到，缺少官方经济数据参考让美联储难以获悉美国真实经济状况。"好比在大雾中开车，你会减 速慢行。" 此外，美国经济仍然面临就业市场放缓和通胀上行的双重风险。尽管缺乏最新官方数据，但就业市场在 政府"停摆"前就 ...

新华财经北京10月30日电（记者陈斯达）美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）29日结束为期两天的货币政策 会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表 示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一步降息并非板上钉钉。分析人士认为，在美联储内部分歧加剧、联邦 政府"停摆"导致重要经济数据缺失、平衡就业和通胀风险压力仍存等因素困扰下，美联储未来货币政策 面临很大的不确定性。 这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。美联储决策机构联 邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示，今年就业增长放缓，失业率上升，通胀率自年初 以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鲍威尔在货币政策会议结束后举行的记者会上强调，在平衡就业 和通胀这两大目标的过程中，美联储政策制定"没有绝对安全的路径"。 此外，美国经济仍然面临就业市场放缓和通胀上行的双重风险。尽管缺乏最新官方数据，但就业市场在 政府"停摆"前就已明显放缓。美国劳工部数据显示，美国失业率8月升至4.3%，创近4年来新高；非农就 业人数仅增加2.2万，远低于市场预期。 美联储未对12月政策释放明确预期 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% during its recent monetary policy meeting, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - There is significant uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy due to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the government shutdown affecting key economic data, and ongoing pressures to balance employment and inflation risks [1][2] - The market's expectation for another rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70% following the Fed's lack of clear guidance on future policy [1] Group 1 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with differing opinions on whether to cut rates further or maintain current levels, highlighting the complexity of the decision-making process [2] - The government shutdown has halted data collection and reporting, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the true state of the economy, which Powell likened to "driving in a fog" [2] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Private sector data indicates a continued decline in job openings, with significant layoffs announced by major companies like Amazon and Target, suggesting a troubling trend in the labor market [3] - Inflation remains a concern, with the personal consumption expenditures price index rising 2.7% year-over-year in August, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [3] - The impact of tariffs has contributed to rising core personal consumption expenditures, potentially pushing inflation rates to 3% by December [3] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the White House is tense, with government officials previously pressuring the Fed for more aggressive rate cuts, which may lead to further complications in policy decisions [4] - Concerns have been raised about the potential impact of political pressures on the Fed's independence and its ability to manage inflation effectively, especially with Powell's term ending in May [5]