Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may further wait for the clarity of the Fed's monetary policy, and silver may passively fluctuate following gold, with a mid - term high - level shock [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with supply exceeding demand and new capacity pressure. It is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [3]. - The domestic steel market is in holiday mode, with downstream demand stagnant. Steel prices are expected to be stable before the festival and may first decline and then rise after the festival [3]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure, but due to the upcoming Two Sessions, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The downward space of hog prices is limited, and the far - month contracts have bottomed out. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [4]. - Palm oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [5]. - The price of soybean meal has a short - term bottom support and is expected to stabilize and rebound [6]. - Long - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but the shock attribute is still strong [6]. - Crude oil is driven by geopolitics but has supply pressure. It is recommended to focus on risk control during the Spring Festival [7]. - Gold is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the mid - term, affected by geopolitical disturbances [8]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term due to the complex supply situation and weak demand [8]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a shock pattern before the festival and wait for the recovery of demand after the festival [10]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak in the short - term shock [10]. - Plastic prices are expected to be under pressure and weak in the short term [11]. - PTA prices are expected to be weak in the shock [11]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: The non - farm data in the US significantly exceeded expectations, but the fluctuation of precious metals was limited. Silver may follow gold, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the mid - term [1]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and gold is expected to be in a high - level shock in the mid - term [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The price is stable, with supply exceeding demand and new capacity pressure. It is expected to be weak in the short - term shock [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol starts at a high level, with a slight increase in port inventory. It is expected to be weak in the short - term shock [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The export situation in February is not optimistic, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is loose, but the contract volume for delivery is tightening, providing short - term price support. It is expected to stabilize and rebound [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the market, but there is supply pressure. It is recommended to focus on risk control during the Spring Festival [7]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: The production will decline during the holiday, and the demand is supported. The fundamentals are expected to be healthy, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory pressure increases, and the supply is affected by weather. The price is under pressure but may fluctuate due to the upcoming Two Sessions [4]. - **Copper**: The supply situation is complex, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term [8]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas supply has a risk of interruption, and domestic supply is stable. The demand is weak in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern before the festival [10]. Building Materials - **Rebar**: The domestic steel market is in holiday mode, with downstream demand stagnant. The price is expected to be stable before the festival and may first decline and then rise after the festival [3]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The price is weak, but there are signs of stopping the decline. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [4]. - **Rubber**: The overseas raw material price is rising, but the demand is weak during the holiday. The price is expected to fluctuate [12]. Plastics - **Plastic**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure and weak in the short term [11]. Textiles - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, but the demand is weak during the holiday. It is expected to be weak in the shock [11].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Lennox International Inc. (LII.N) reached a closing price of $553.16 on February 11, 2026, marking a 0.84% increase and a new 60-day high, with a cumulative increase of 3.49% over the past five trading days, outperforming the broader market and the construction equipment sector [1]. Fund Flows - Institutional holdings remain stable as of February 11, with major investors like Vanguard Group and BlackRock holding significant shares, while BlackRock has recently increased its holdings. Conversely, some institutions, such as Citadel Advisors LLC, have reduced their positions. The overall high institutional holding ratio indicates sustained interest from mainstream funds [2]. Company Fundamentals - The company operates primarily in two segments: home comfort solutions (approximately 67% of revenue) and building climate solutions (approximately 33%). The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings ratio is 24.27, the price-to-book ratio is 16.55, and the dividend yield is 0.91% [3]. Future Development - The ability of the stock price to maintain upward momentum will depend on several factors: macroeconomic conditions, particularly the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, which may impact international business costs and demand; industry demand resilience, especially in the commercial real estate and residential renovation markets; and the company's performance in upcoming earnings reports, which will need to validate growth expectations and demonstrate progress in cost control and gross margin improvement [4].

Group 1 - The latest U.S. non-farm payroll data for January shows an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations, which reduces the Federal Reserve's inclination towards easing monetary policy [1] - The unemployment rate in January dropped to 4.3%, while average hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year [1] - The labor force participation rate rose from 62.4% to 62.5%, indicating a positive trend in the labor market [1] Group 2 - Despite the strong job growth in January, there are signs that the labor market may be weakening, with reports indicating a slowdown in hiring activities expected in 2025 due to increased layoffs and reduced job vacancies [2] - The ratio of unemployed individuals to job vacancies decreased to 0.87 in December, down from 0.89 in November, suggesting a tightening labor market [2] - Analysts note that while the January non-farm data shows job increases, the labor market is still struggling, and there are concerns about a potential rise in unemployment as hiring slows down [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm employment growth accelerated in January, adding 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, indicating a stabilization in the labor market, which may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates for a period while monitoring inflation [1] Employment Growth Factors - The stronger-than-expected job growth was partly due to fewer seasonal holiday workers hired by retailers and delivery companies compared to previous years [1] - January is typically a month with high seasonal layoffs, but the lower seasonal hiring may have correspondingly reduced the scale of layoffs, thereby boosting employment growth [1] Labor Market Conditions - Despite the increase in non-farm employment, the labor market remains lukewarm, struggling even amid strong economic growth [1] - Concerns over employment and high inflation have diminished public satisfaction with the economic policies of the Trump administration [1]

【导读】美联储戴利表示：利率将维持不变，但今年仍可能降息。 大家周末好，简单看一则关于美联储的消息。 旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利表示，由于通胀风险上升，美联储可能需要比预期更长时间维持利 率不变，但今年仍可能降息。 戴利在加州大学伯克利分校的一次活动中表示："与一年前相比，通胀的风险更高了，因此我们可能需 要比原先设想的更长时间维持紧缩政策。但这并不意味着要永远紧缩，因为最终通胀正在回落。" 戴利表示，她仍然认可美联储3月《经济预测摘要》（SEP）中的中位预期，即今年将降息两次、每次 25个基点。 她指出，如果通胀最终确实下降，"我们确实需要逐步降低利率，就像我们在SEP中所说的那样，以确 保不会对经济造成过度紧缩"。 （原标题：美联储最新发声！利率将维持不变 但今年仍可能降息） 大多数经济学家预计，这些关税在短期内至少会抑制经济增长并推高通胀。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 以及多位美联储官员本周表示，央行的重点是确保由关税引发的物价上涨不会演变成更为持久的通胀上 升。 戴利对此的态度则显得相对乐观一些。 她表示："我们目前的经济状况稳健，当然，货币政策仍然保持在紧缩状态，以持续对通胀施加下行压 力。" 她 ...

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has recently shown a rebound against the US dollar (USD), reaching a near two-week high at around 0.6065, influenced by a weaker USD and upcoming US non-farm payroll data that may guide short-term exchange rate direction [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The NZD is supported by a weaker USD, while market focus is on the forthcoming US employment data, which is crucial for expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3]. - A strong performance in US employment data could reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively tight policy, thereby supporting the USD; conversely, weaker data may lead to speculation about a policy shift, putting pressure on the USD [3]. Group 2: Global Market Sentiment - Improved global market risk sentiment has reduced the safe-haven demand for the USD, benefiting currencies like the NZD that are closely tied to economic growth [3]. - Recent Chinese inflation data showing a slowdown in consumer price growth and continued contraction in producer prices indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, which may prompt supportive policies to stabilize the economy, positively influencing sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Group 3: Domestic Factors in New Zealand - Recent labor market data from New Zealand indicates a rise in the unemployment rate, which may weaken market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, thus limiting the NZD's upside potential [3]. - The NZD's movement is influenced by a balance of factors: the overall weakness of the USD and improved global sentiment provide support, while moderate domestic economic data and cautious sentiment ahead of significant external risk events act as constraints [3].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has continued to decline, breaking below the 154.00 level, primarily due to disappointing U.S. economic data and market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1][3][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The USD/JPY rate fell to a low of approximately 153.32, with a reported decline of 0.93, translating to a drop of 0.6218% from the previous trading day [1]. - In the previous trading session, the USD/JPY closed at 154.30, marking a significant daily drop of 1.01% [3]. Group 2: Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales for December showed no growth (0%), significantly below the expected 0.4% and down from the previous month's growth of 0.6%, indicating a contraction in actual consumer spending [3]. - The year-on-year growth of retail sales at 2.4% was also below the consumer price index's increase of 2.7%, raising concerns about the U.S. economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - The market is increasingly concerned about the U.S. economic recovery, which has weakened confidence among dollar bulls and contributed to the downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate [3]. - The recent victory of Japan's ruling coalition in elections has led to increased market focus on potential fiscal and exchange rate measures, providing support for the yen [3]. - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and speculation about future adjustments by the Bank of Japan are contributing to the yen's strength [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The daily chart for USD/JPY shows a "bearish engulfing" pattern, with the price breaking below short-term moving averages, indicating a buildup of bearish momentum [3]. - Key psychological support for USD/JPY is around 154.00, with potential further declines towards 153.00 if this level is breached [3]. - The trading range is expected to remain narrow between 153.50 and 155.00 ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll data release [3][4].

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is stabilizing around 1.3550, with market participants focused on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data to break the current stalemate [1] - The trade dispute surrounding the Detroit-Windsor border bridge project has become a focal point, but Canadian Prime Minister's commitment to manage differences with the Trump administration has alleviated concerns about deteriorating trade relations [1] - The fundamental support for the Canadian dollar is linked to oil price movements and monetary policy divergence, as Canada, being a major oil exporter, has its economy closely tied to international oil prices [1] Group 2 - Recent Canadian economic data shows a surprising contrast, with a decrease in employment numbers but a significant drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, the lowest in 16 months, indicating structural resilience in the labor market [2] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, with the governor emphasizing that the current rate is "appropriate," reinforcing a hawkish stance that supports the attractiveness of Canadian dollar assets [2] - Despite the strengthening fundamentals for the Canadian dollar, upward movement faces pressure from a weak U.S. dollar index and mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policies [2] Group 3 - If the U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates, potentially pushing the USD/CAD exchange rate above 1.36 [3] - Conversely, if the data is weak, it may ignite further rate cut expectations, putting downward pressure on the USD and possibly breaking below the 1.3550 support level [3] - The technical analysis indicates a typical oscillating structure for the USD/CAD exchange rate, with key support at 1.3479 and resistance around 1.3680, suggesting a cautious trading strategy ahead of the non-farm payroll report [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified, raising concerns about the future relationship between the two and the implications for monetary policy [1][9]. Group 1: Tensions and Criticism - Since taking office in 2017, Trump has consistently criticized Powell, expressing a desire for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in a timely manner to support market performance [3][5]. - Trump has publicly stated that he believes he made a significant mistake in choosing Powell as the Fed chair, indicating a preference for a new chair who aligns with his economic views [1][3]. Group 2: Potential Successors - Trump has identified Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, with Hassett being the current frontrunner [5][11]. - The market has reacted strongly to the possibility of Hassett's appointment, with analysts suggesting that it would lead to a more accommodative monetary policy [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The capital markets have shown heightened sensitivity to Trump's comments regarding the Federal Reserve, particularly concerning the likelihood of further interest rate cuts [9][11]. - Following discussions about Hassett's potential nomination, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly fell below 4%, reflecting market apprehension about the implications of Trump's influence on the Fed [11]. Group 4: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite Trump's attempts to exert pressure, Powell has maintained the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has become a focal point of concern for the markets [7][9]. - The ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve is seen as a significant factor that could impact U.S. monetary policy and, by extension, the global economy [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. - Lead: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. - Zinc: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. - Tin: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range [19]. - Alumina: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [22]. - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US retail sales data was weaker than expected. Overnight, the US stock market rose and then fell, and the copper price fluctuated and adjusted. The LME copper 3M closed down 0.64% to 13,100 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons. Domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.9 to 166,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 5 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot import of Shanghai copper had a loss of about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: As the long holiday approaches, market volatility has decreased. The increasing uncertainty of the Mozambique aluminum plant's production cut has led to an adjustment in the aluminum price. The LME aluminum closed down 0.8% to 3,105 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,545 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.4 to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 167,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions increased, and aluminum rod inventories rose. The LME aluminum ingot inventories decreased by 0.2 to 487,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 16,688 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 126,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 1,970 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 176,300 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,525 yuan/ton, and the recycled refined lead average price was 16,500 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 24,494 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3,366.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 229,400 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,460 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 34,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,900 tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On February 10, the tin price fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 382,000 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high and stable last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. On the demand side, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot transactions have slightly improved, the overall price is still at a high level, and the downstream's pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference range is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference range is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 10, the nickel price fell slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price. The Shanghai nickel price reference range is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,408 yuan in the evening session, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,340 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous closing price [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 10, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 1.11% to 2,837 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 468,200 lots, a decrease of 14,600 lots from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 280 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at 304 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 69 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were reported at 251,000 tons, an increase of 84,000 tons from the previous trading day [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disturbance can be materialized and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference range is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,740 yuan/ton, up 0.04% (+5) on the day, with a unilateral position of 211,200 lots, a decrease of 6,582 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices also remained stable. The futures inventory was 47,800 tons, an increase of 4,221 from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%, and the 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2604 contract closed down 0.2% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 25,000 lots, and the trading volume was 8,700 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12 to 67,300 tons. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 0.01 to 40,900 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27].