美联储货币政策

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沉睡13年的五千万美元比特币苏醒 XBIT Wallet数字货币钱包市场解析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 11:38
Core Insights - A dormant Bitcoin wallet, inactive for nearly 13 years, has been reactivated, revealing a holding of 479.44 BTC valued at approximately $53.56 million at current prices, with the wallet's only transaction being a transfer of 0.25 BTC worth about $28,000 [1][3] - The reactivation of this wallet highlights the divergent paths of early Bitcoin adopters, with potential scenarios including asset freezing due to lost private keys or intentional long-term storage strategies [3] - Bitcoin is currently experiencing price volatility, having recently dropped over 10.6% from its peak of $124,000 in August 2024, coinciding with historical trends indicating September is typically a weak month for crypto markets [3][4] Market Dynamics - Despite price pressures, only 9% of Bitcoin supply is currently at a loss, a significant improvement from over 25% during the 2022 bear market, indicating a shift in investor behavior [4] - The net realized profit/loss (NRPL) metric has surged to a monthly peak of $4.2 billion, suggesting a transformation in market sentiment and investment strategies [4] - The flow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has slowed, impacting price momentum, yet this has led to a concentration of funds in higher-quality holdings [6] Policy and Economic Factors - Macro-level policy expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are influencing the crypto market, with a lower interest rate environment likely to enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a risk asset [7] - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policy changes and the ongoing innovation within the crypto ecosystem, such as Layer 2 solutions and institutional infrastructure improvements, will be crucial for Bitcoin's price recovery [9] Investment Tools - The XBIT Wallet offers multi-chain asset management capabilities, allowing users to efficiently manage their holdings and respond to market fluctuations, whether in bullish or bearish conditions [9]
【美股盘前】特朗普将宴请硅谷科技巨头,马斯克未受邀;美银下调目标价,Figma跌超15%;特朗普提名美联储新理事米兰将出席听证会;美国8月ADP就业人数今日公布
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 10:25
Group 1 - Dow futures decreased by 0.02%, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.15% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.21% [1] - Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has begun nationwide deliveries of the new Model Y L and the long-range Model 3, with the latter offering a range of 830 kilometers (CLTC) [1] - Tesla's stock rose by 1.37% following the delivery announcement [1] Group 2 - Salesforce reported Q2 earnings and revenue exceeding expectations, but the Q3 revenue forecast of $10.24 billion to $10.29 billion fell short of analyst expectations, leading to a 6.65% drop in its stock [2] - Google was fined €325 million ($381 million) by French data protection authorities for improper ad display to Gmail users, resulting in a 0.55% decline in its stock [2] - Bank of America lowered Figma's target price from $85 to $69 due to valuation concerns, causing Figma's stock to drop by 15.31% [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan Chase announced plans to launch its digital retail bank in Germany in the second quarter of 2026, following its UK launch in 2021 [3] - ConocoPhillips announced a global workforce reduction of 20% to 25% as part of a broader restructuring effort, with most layoffs expected to occur by 2025 [3] - Stephen Milan, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of monetary policy during his upcoming Senate hearing [3]
美联储理事库克反击特朗普解职令:任命时已完全披露房产信息
智通财经网· 2025-09-03 01:19
Group 1 - Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, responded to Trump's dismissal claims, asserting that her mortgage disclosures during the 2022 nomination process were complete and legally sound [1] - Cook's properties included a primary residence in Michigan, a secondary residence in Georgia, and a property in Massachusetts listed as both a current residence and rental [1] - Trump's allegations of fraud regarding Cook's mortgage applications are challenged by her legal team, emphasizing that such claims should have been addressed during the confirmation process rather than post-appointment [1] Group 2 - Cook has consistently aligned with Fed Chair Jerome Powell on monetary policy, maintaining the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since December 2023, despite Trump's calls for aggressive rate cuts [2] - The case has raised significant concerns about the political independence of the Federal Reserve, with Trump's actions viewed as a challenge to the central bank's autonomy [2] - A decision on whether to issue a temporary injunction against Cook's dismissal is pending from a federal judge, which could have lasting implications for the Fed's personnel structure [2]
平替美债,黄金再次爆发
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 09:02
Group 1 - Central banks are expected to increase their gold and foreign exchange reserves over the next five years, with 72% anticipating a moderate rise, 17% expecting no change, and 6% predicting a significant decline [1] - Demand for gold continues to rise as central banks increase their holdings, leading to a favorable outlook for gold prices [1] - Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds as the most sought-after asset by central banks, with total gold reserves approaching $4 trillion, exceeding the $3.8 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [1] Group 2 - In the context of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve's policy path is characterized by "expectation reinforcement and independence erosion," which is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [3] - Despite rising risk appetite in U.S. equities, institutional demand for precious metals continues to drive prices higher [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is high, and upcoming economic data will significantly influence future monetary policy expectations and market direction [3]
特朗普又要宣布紧急状态!这次针对全美住房
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-02 08:30
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under President Trump, is considering declaring a national housing emergency to address rising housing costs and declining supply, with urgency emphasized by Treasury Secretary Scott Basset [1][2]. Group 1: Housing Market Challenges - The U.S. real estate market is experiencing stagnation due to rising home purchase costs and decreased supply, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy and increased prices for construction materials [1]. - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. has not declared a national housing emergency, highlighting the severity of the current housing environment [2]. Group 2: Government Response and Actions - Trump has consistently criticized the Federal Reserve for high interest rates, which he claims increase government financing costs and harm the real estate market [3]. - The government is exploring ways to regulate local building and zoning codes and reduce transaction costs, with a focus on housing affordability as a key pillar for the Republican agenda in the 2026 midterm elections [4]. - The administration is also looking into simplifying approval processes and encouraging standardized construction methods to boost housing supply and lower costs [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Rental prices are currently declining, which is crucial for Americans without property, and a decrease in interest rates is expected to increase real estate transactions and home sales [4].
BBMarkets:市场观望情绪浓厚,欧元兑美元走势需看美联储脸色?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 08:09
Group 1 - The euro is currently trading at 1.1694 against the dollar, showing a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day, indicating a market in a consolidation phase with limited volatility and no clear directional signals [1] - Market sentiment is complex and somewhat contradictory, with many institutions predicting a relatively flat performance for the euro in the near term due to an "overbought" situation, as approximately $18 billion in net long positions are currently betting on a stronger euro [1][3] - The positioning structure in the market may limit the euro's upward momentum, especially if the dollar weakens due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts or policy statements, which could lead to profit-taking pressures on the euro [1][3] Group 2 - Traders' attitudes towards the dollar are becoming polarized, with reductions in short positions against the yen while increasing short positions against the pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, indicating a selective approach rather than a broad bearish outlook on the dollar [3] - The euro-dollar pair is currently in a critical area of contention, facing multiple resistance levels that act as a "ceiling" on the exchange rate's rebound, with key resistance points at 1.1742, 1.1788, and the year-to-date high of 1.1830 [3][4] - The euro is in a wide-ranging consolidation zone, and without a significant breakthrough above any of the mentioned resistance levels, it is difficult to determine if a trend has formed, with short-term risks of a downward movement still present due to a lack of new positive stimuli [3][4]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250902
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 03:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行,铝预计价格短期高位震荡 [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨,安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产,个别钢厂预计1月20日后停产,停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [2][3] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日,10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%,同比增长43.2% [3] - 成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低,供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷致价格重心下移 [3] - 后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [3] 2.铝 - 宏观上投资者等待美国就业市场数据影响美联储货币政策预期,美联储降息预期升温等营造利多氛围,但国内政策托底传导至实际消费需时间 [2] - 9月氧化铝现货价格弱势运行,运行产能预计小幅增长,供应端运行产能稳中小增、产量微幅增长,9月铝水比例存回升预期,成本方面行业总成本变化小、高利润依旧 [3] - 需求端“金九银十”旺季临近,下游周度开工率复苏,铝型材龙头企业开工率环比提升1.5个百分点至52%,铝线缆行业开工率回升至63.8%,预计9月后开工率持续上行 [3] - 8月28日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存62.0万吨,较本周一增加0.4万吨,环比上周一增加2.4万吨,淡季累库与高铝价压制现货升水 [3] - 关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [4]
显微镜下的中国经济(2025年第33期):人民币中间价为何加速升值
CMS· 2025-09-01 07:36
近期人民币汇率加速升值,中间价和 CNH 上周均回到 7.10 附近,CNY 回到 7.13 附近。年内汇率存在破 7 的可能性。 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 相关报告 1、《人民币何时破 7?——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-08-31 2、《港股上市央国企动态系列 报告之 1——东风集团股份宣布 私有化退市,港股央国企推进 战略整合》2025-08-31 3、《美联储独立性或受挑战; 特朗普关税再被判违法——— 国际时政周评》2025-08-31 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 人民币中间价为何加速升值 显微镜下的中国经济(2025 年第 33 期) 频率:每周 上周美元兑人民币汇率中间价升值至 7.10 附近,环比升值 0.4%,而年初至 今中间价升值幅度为 1.2%,换句话说,上周中间价的升值幅度约为年初至 今的三分之一左右。受中间价加速升值的影响,上周美元兑人民币即期汇 ...
美联储关键议息会议临近,法官加速受理库克被炒诉讼
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 02:24
特朗普已提名其经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰填补因另一名理事库格勒辞职产生的空缺。参议院将于本周四举行听证会。 后者很可能赶得上参加本月16日开始的美联储议息会议。而目前接替鲍威尔呼声最高的沃勒已明确支持降息25个 基点。 库克于2022年5月被拜登任命为美联储理事,是美联储首位非裔女性理事。她的任期原本应到2038年结束。今年以 来,她一直支持美联储观望,拒绝因特朗普施压而降息。 在上周五的听证会上,代表白宫的司法部律师Yaakov Roth辩称,1913年通过的《联邦储备法》以开放式的语言定 义了"正当理由",赋予了总统关于美联储成员任免广泛的自由裁量权。而美联储则没有表明立场,但表示希望迅 速作出裁决,以消除不确定性。 《联邦储备法》允许总统"因故"罢免在任理事。此前"故"字的内涵被解读为渎职、严重行为不端和其他影响美联 储理事履职能力的情况。 美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库克案听证会于上周五结束,华盛顿法官贾·科布(Jia Cobb)未立即做出裁决。 这意味着库克目前暂时得以留任。 科布要求库克的律师于本周二之前提交简报,以便更详细地阐述他们为何认为特朗普解雇库克是非法行为。 今年45岁的科布于2021年由时任 ...
中外资大咖共话:中国资本市场步入“慢牛”新纪元?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 01:49
Group 1: Market Outlook - The discussion among financial institutions highlighted the future direction of China's capital markets, focusing on global economic trends, changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and investment strategies in the Chinese market [1] - ICBC International's Chief Economist Cheng Shi noted that both A-shares and H-shares have moved out of valuation troughs and entered a phase of value re-evaluation, indicating a "slow bull" market trend in China's capital markets [1][4] - Standard Chartered's Chief Investment Strategist Wang Xinjie emphasized that Hong Kong stocks will continue to attract overseas investment due to their high dividend yields and growth potential in emerging industries [3] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Cheng Shi described the current state of the Chinese economy as "steady with progress," supported by factors such as consumption recovery, industrial upgrades, and diversified foreign trade [4] - Despite recent economic slowdown due to weather impacts, Wang Xinjie stated that the overall growth rate remains above the 5% target set last year [4] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Cheng Shi suggested focusing on proactive fiscal policies, moderate monetary easing, and breaking down barriers to domestic market construction to release economic dividends [4] - Wang Xinjie indicated that policy efforts in the second half of the year will primarily focus on "sustained efforts" while retaining the flexibility for "timely increases" [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy - Cheng Shi predicted that the Federal Reserve may adjust its policy with a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points throughout the year, considering employment risks [7] - Market expectations suggest a high probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in September [7] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Wang Xinjie expressed a bullish outlook on stocks for the next 6 to 12 months, while also acknowledging short-term risks [9] - He recommended reallocating funds from U.S. investments to Asian stocks (excluding Japan) while maintaining core holdings in Japanese and European stocks, and focusing on emerging market local currency bonds [9]