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美联储降息25个点!贷款便宜了,积蓄却缩水,普通人仍被割韭菜?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 10:38
2025年9月17日美国当地时间,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点,至4.00%-4.25%。 这是自去年12月以来,美联储时隔9个月首次调整政策利率,且此次降息完全符合市场预期。 此前,美联储主席鲍威尔在8月杰克逊霍尔央行会议上释放出偏向宽松的"转鸽"信号,叠加美国非农数据连续两个月表现不及预期。 8月CPI温和抬升,市场对本次降息的预期概率已接近100%。 美联储选择此时降息,核心动因在于美国就业市场的显著降温。 近期公布的美国8月就业数据增长几近停滞,失业金申领人数更是攀升至近四年高位,这表明就业市场降温速度可能远超此前预期。 在此背景下,降息成为防止经济进一步下滑、提振就业的重要手段。 但决策背后,美联储始终面临就业与通胀的"跷跷板"矛盾。 当前美国通胀水平仍高于2%的目标值,这也是美联储在半年多时间里迟迟未再调整利率的关键原因。 既要通过宽松政策稳定就业,又要避免通胀反弹失控,这种平衡考量贯穿了此次政策制定的全过程。 除了如期降息,本次美联储议息会议还呈现出多个值得关注的细节,这些细节直接影响市场对未来政策走向的判断。 市场原本预计此次降息可能伴随内部分歧,尤其是在特朗普呼吁更大幅度降 ...
降息易,定调难! 美联储内部现严重分歧,市场紧盯周三决议指引
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 01:15
(原标题:降息易,定调难! 美联储内部现严重分歧,市场紧盯周三决议指引) 智通财经APP获悉,美联储准备九个月来首次重启降息,以应对劳动力市场放缓、持续高于2%目标的 通胀压力,以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推动降低借贷成本的特殊举措。然而,本周的降息行动未必预 示美联储将进入平稳降息周期。 近期一系列疲软数据引发市场对劳动力市场可能陷入更严重衰退的担忧,并可能拖累消费支出与整体经 济增长。但当前通胀率仍高于美联储设定的2%目标,且特朗普政府实施的关税政策存在推高物价风 险,这使部分政策制定者对过快降息保持警惕。 前费城联储主席帕特·哈克指出,通常9月17日预期的首次降息举措会标志着一个完整周期的开始,但此 次"路径是否清晰仍存疑"。 美联储内部可能出现显著分歧,一些人倾向于不降息,另一些人则要求更大幅度的降息——本周决议可 能出现3至4名投票委员反对降息,若达4人反对将创1990年以来最高纪录,3人反对则是2019年后首次。 在白宫试图扩大对美联储影响力的背景下,政策制定者正应对美国经济日益严峻的挑战。特朗普上月试 图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克虽被法院暂时阻止,但其提名美联储理事会盟友斯蒂芬·米兰的任命若获参 议 ...
美联储9月降息:一场明确且必要的政策转向
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 12:17
Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Direction - The Federal Reserve is likely to announce a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on September 17, reflecting strong market confidence in a shift in monetary policy [1][8] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve focuses on maximizing employment and price stability, with current conditions presenting a dilemma of a weakening labor market and rising inflation pressures [2][3] - Powell emphasized that the rising risks in the labor market are a key factor driving the shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2][3] Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - The July employment report indicated a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added, well below the expected range of 110,000 to 130,000 [3] - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, still at historically low levels, but the rising trend in layoffs and unemployment poses a risk to economic stability [3][9] - Powell warned that the risks of rising layoffs and unemployment highlight the urgency for a rate cut to support the labor market [3][9] Group 3: Inflation Trends - The core PCE price index recorded 2.7% in May 2025, still above the 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite a significant drop from the 5.5% peak in 2022 [4][5] - The July CPI remained stable at 2.7%, slightly below expectations, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, suggesting accumulating price pressures [4][5] - The PPI report showed a 0.9% increase in July, the largest monthly rise since March 2022, driven by tariff policies, which could lead to further inflationary pressures [5][6] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Powell's speech significantly boosted market confidence, with the probability of a September rate cut rising from 76% to 89.2%, leading to increases in stock, gold, silver, and cryptocurrency prices [8] - The upcoming August employment and CPI data will be critical in determining the scale of the rate cut, with expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point reduction [8][9] - A 25 basis point cut is expected to support the labor market but may also heighten inflation risks, necessitating careful monitoring of economic indicators [9][10]