Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% during its monetary policy meeting, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - There is significant uncertainty regarding future monetary policy due to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the government shutdown affecting key economic data, and ongoing pressures to balance employment and inflation risks [1][2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased from 90% to below 70% following the Fed's cautious stance [2] Economic Indicators - Employment growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below market expectations [2][3] - The personal consumption expenditure price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, exceeding the Fed's long-term inflation target of 2% [3] - Tariff policies have contributed to a 0.44% increase in core personal consumption expenditures, with inflation projected to rise to 3% by December [3] Labor Market Trends - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with significant job cuts announced by major companies like Amazon and Target, indicating a broader trend of declining employment opportunities [3] - The private sector experienced the largest drop in employment since March 2023, further highlighting the challenges in the labor market [3] Federal Reserve and Government Relations - Tensions remain between the Federal Reserve and the White House, as government officials have pressured the Fed for more aggressive rate cuts, which the Fed has not committed to [4] - The potential appointment of a successor to Fed Chair Powell, who is expected to support lower borrowing costs, raises concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy and its ability to manage inflation [5]

新华社北京10月30日电 题：美联储货币政策面临多重困扰 新华社记者陈斯达 美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）29日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一步降息并 非板上钉钉。分析人士认为，在美联储内部分歧加剧、联邦政府"停摆"导致重要经济数据缺失、平衡就 业和通胀风险压力仍存等因素困扰下，美联储未来货币政策面临很大的不确定性。 这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。美联储决策机构联 邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示，今年就业增长放缓，失业率上升，通胀率自年初 以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鲍威尔在货币政策会议结束后举行的记者会上强调，在平衡就业 和通胀这两大目标的过程中，美联储政策制定"没有绝对安全的路径"。 分析人士指出，多重因素迫使美联储谨慎行事。 美联储内部对于12月如何决策进一步显现分歧。美联储内部"存在非常不同的观点"。美联储理事斯蒂芬 ·米兰主张更大幅度地降息，堪萨斯城联储银行行长杰弗里·施密德则主张维持利率不变。施密德警告 ...

美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）29日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一步降息并 非板上钉钉。分析人士认为，在美联储内部分歧加剧、联邦政府"停摆"导致重要经济数据缺失、平衡就 业和通胀风险压力仍存等因素困扰下，美联储未来货币政策面临很大的不确定性。 这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。美联储决策机构联 邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示，今年就业增长放缓，失业率上升，通胀率自年初 以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鲍威尔在货币政策会议结束后举行的记者会上强调，在平衡就业 和通胀这两大目标的过程中，美联储政策制定"没有绝对安全的路径"。 联邦政府已"停摆"数周，导致数据收集和报告工作暂停，这让美联储无法获取消费等关键数据。鲍威尔 反复提到，缺少官方经济数据参考让美联储难以获悉美国真实经济状况。"好比在大雾中开车，你会减 速慢行。" 此外，美国经济仍然面临就业市场放缓和通胀上行的双重风险。尽管缺乏最新官方数据，但就业市场在 政府"停摆"前就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy due to internal divisions and external economic pressures [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut marks the fifth reduction since September 2024, reflecting ongoing concerns about employment and inflation [1] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped significantly from 90% to below 70% [2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, far below expectations [3][4] - Inflation remains a concern, with the personal consumption expenditure price index rising 2.7% year-over-year in August, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [4] Group 3: Internal and External Pressures - There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate decisions, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has hindered the collection of key economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the true state of the economy [3][4] Group 4: Relationship with the White House - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the White House remains tense, with government officials previously pressuring the Fed for more aggressive rate cuts [5] - Concerns have been raised about the potential impact of political pressures on the Fed's independence and its ability to manage inflation effectively [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 16-17 resulted in a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% amidst unprecedented circumstances due to a government shutdown affecting key economic data [1][4][6] - The absence of critical economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and inflation metrics has created a challenging decision-making environment for the Federal Reserve, balancing employment concerns against persistent inflation [5][6][14] Rate Cut Context - The decision to lower interest rates comes in the context of a data blackout caused by the government shutdown, complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions [3][4] - The employment market is showing signs of slowing growth, while inflation remains stubbornly high, creating a difficult balancing act for policymakers [5][6] Internal Divisions - There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for more aggressive measures due to emerging employment concerns [9][12] - Conversely, a faction of officials emphasizes caution, focusing on the risks posed by high inflation and the potential consequences of loosening monetary policy too quickly [10][11][12] Risk Assessment - The Fed is weighing the risks associated with employment and inflation, recognizing that current interest rates may have delayed effects on the labor market [14][15] - Persistent inflation above target levels poses a risk of altering consumer and business expectations, complicating future monetary policy decisions [15] Market Expectations - Market sentiment indicates a high probability (92.5%) of another rate cut in October, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the government shutdown and internal Fed divisions [17][18] - The complexity of the situation is heightened by varying expectations from different market participants regarding future rate cuts, creating a challenging environment for forecasting [18] Conclusion - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex landscape characterized by data shortages, internal disagreements, and the need to balance employment and inflation risks, making future monetary policy decisions fraught with uncertainty [20]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate adjustment in nine months and aligning with market expectations [1][2] - The core motivation for the rate cut is the significant cooling of the U.S. job market, with recent employment data showing stagnation and unemployment claims reaching a near four-year high [2][5] - The decision reflects a balancing act between stabilizing employment through accommodative policies while managing inflation, which remains above the 2% target [2][5] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed strong unity, with 11 out of 12 members supporting the 25 basis point cut, indicating a more cohesive decision-making process than anticipated [5] - The median rate forecast suggests one more rate cut next year, with some members indicating the possibility of two additional cuts this year, though uncertainty remains [5][7] - The Fed's economic growth outlook has improved slightly, with upward revisions to GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, alongside a downward adjustment in unemployment rate expectations [7] Group 3 - The Fed's rate cut creates favorable conditions for the People's Bank of China to implement its own easing measures, such as rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [9] - Market expectations indicate a potential further reduction of 20-30 basis points in the 5-year LPR, which could lower mortgage rates and stimulate demand in the real estate market [9][10] - The depreciation of the dollar post-rate cut puts upward pressure on the RMB, potentially leading to a short-term appreciation that could lower import costs but also impact export competitiveness [10][11] Group 4 - The narrowing interest rate differential enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets, leading to increased foreign capital inflows into the Chinese market [13] - However, the influx of capital may heighten market volatility and create potential asset bubble risks, necessitating stronger macro-prudential management [13] - Sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, are expected to benefit from the Fed's easing cycle, while traditional industries face increased pressure to adapt [13][15] Group 5 - The Fed's rate cut is expected to provide a relatively loose external environment for the Chinese economy, potentially boosting foreign capital return and market confidence [17] - Long-term challenges include managing imported inflation, currency fluctuations, and the need for industrial transformation [17] - By enhancing industrial upgrades and financial regulation, China aims to convert external opportunities into internal growth drivers, fostering stable development amid global economic adjustments [17]

（原标题：降息易，定调难! 美联储内部现严重分歧，市场紧盯周三决议指引） 智通财经APP获悉，美联储准备九个月来首次重启降息，以应对劳动力市场放缓、持续高于2%目标的 通胀压力，以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推动降低借贷成本的特殊举措。然而，本周的降息行动未必预 示美联储将进入平稳降息周期。 近期一系列疲软数据引发市场对劳动力市场可能陷入更严重衰退的担忧，并可能拖累消费支出与整体经 济增长。但当前通胀率仍高于美联储设定的2%目标，且特朗普政府实施的关税政策存在推高物价风 险，这使部分政策制定者对过快降息保持警惕。 前费城联储主席帕特·哈克指出，通常9月17日预期的首次降息举措会标志着一个完整周期的开始，但此 次"路径是否清晰仍存疑"。 美联储内部可能出现显著分歧，一些人倾向于不降息，另一些人则要求更大幅度的降息——本周决议可 能出现3至4名投票委员反对降息，若达4人反对将创1990年以来最高纪录，3人反对则是2019年后首次。 在白宫试图扩大对美联储影响力的背景下，政策制定者正应对美国经济日益严峻的挑战。特朗普上月试 图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克虽被法院暂时阻止，但其提名美联储理事会盟友斯蒂芬·米兰的任命若获参 议 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Direction - The Federal Reserve is likely to announce a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on September 17, reflecting strong market confidence in a shift in monetary policy [1][8] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve focuses on maximizing employment and price stability, with current conditions presenting a dilemma of a weakening labor market and rising inflation pressures [2][3] - Powell emphasized that the rising risks in the labor market are a key factor driving the shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2][3] Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - The July employment report indicated a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added, well below the expected range of 110,000 to 130,000 [3] - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, still at historically low levels, but the rising trend in layoffs and unemployment poses a risk to economic stability [3][9] - Powell warned that the risks of rising layoffs and unemployment highlight the urgency for a rate cut to support the labor market [3][9] Group 3: Inflation Trends - The core PCE price index recorded 2.7% in May 2025, still above the 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite a significant drop from the 5.5% peak in 2022 [4][5] - The July CPI remained stable at 2.7%, slightly below expectations, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, suggesting accumulating price pressures [4][5] - The PPI report showed a 0.9% increase in July, the largest monthly rise since March 2022, driven by tariff policies, which could lead to further inflationary pressures [5][6] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Powell's speech significantly boosted market confidence, with the probability of a September rate cut rising from 76% to 89.2%, leading to increases in stock, gold, silver, and cryptocurrency prices [8] - The upcoming August employment and CPI data will be critical in determining the scale of the rate cut, with expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point reduction [8][9] - A 25 basis point cut is expected to support the labor market but may also heighten inflation risks, necessitating careful monitoring of economic indicators [9][10]