金十数据7月15日讯，信安资产管理公司首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，家庭家具、娱乐用品及服装 等品类的价格上涨，表明关税正逐渐渗透到核心商品价格中。她称，关税的全部影响需要数月时间才会 在通胀数据中显现。她补充道："尽管关税引发的通胀上升可能是短期的，但鉴于更高的关税已宣布实 施，美联储至少在未来几个月内保持按兵不动才是明智之举。" 策略师：美联储保持按兵不动是明智之举 ...

花旗集团(C.N)首席财务官Mason：关税对通胀的影响有限。 ...

花旗集团(C.N)首席财务官Mason：随着关税的实施，消费者支出预计将进一步降温。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Montreal Bank's capital markets U.S. interest rate strategy head, Ian Lyngen, believes it is difficult to imagine that the recent CPI report will lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before September due to the current tariff environment [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market showed a lackluster performance following the CPI report, indicating that the report may not spark discussions about a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The upcoming implementation of a new round of tariffs on August 1 is expected to lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance temporarily [1] - Investors are closely monitoring speeches from Federal Reserve officials for any hints regarding recent policy directions, although the likelihood of such guidance appearing is currently low [1]

智利部长：铜市正在消化美国计划征收的关税。 ...

美国财长贝森特表示，美国和中国关税休战的截止日期定于下月，但这一期限具有弹性。 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks closed lower on July 11, 2025, following President Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canada, raising concerns over trade tensions [1] - The S&P 500 remained flat for the week, while the Dow Jones fell by 1% and the Nasdaq Composite increased by approximately 0.5% [1] Tariff Announcements - President Trump attributed the Canadian tariff increase to fentanyl trafficking concerns and warned of potential retaliation from Canada, which could lead to additional duties [2] - Trump suggested that broader tariffs could be implemented, potentially increasing blanket duties on all countries to 15-20%, up from the current 10% [2] - On July 11, 2025, Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, effective August 1 [4] Market Sentiment - Despite initial tariff announcements, the S&P 500 rose by 0.3% to a record high on Thursday, indicating some investor optimism [3] - However, sentiment shifted on Friday as traders anticipated updates on potential EU tariffs, leading to a decline in equities [4] - Barclays noted that the recent tariff escalations have caused less disruption to equity markets compared to previous selloffs, but long-term effects on economic growth and inflation remain uncertain [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $118,000, driven by institutional demand and optimism surrounding global crypto adoption [8] - The upcoming "Crypto Week" in Congress, starting July 14, will address key regulations that could impact the cryptocurrency industry, including the GENIUS Act for a federal stablecoin framework [9] ETF Performance - Cannabis ETFs saw significant gains, with Roundhill Cannabis ETF up 25.2% and AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF up 21.9%, following indications of presidential support for rescheduling [11] - Shipping ETFs also performed well, with Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF rising by 19.6% due to increased freight rates amid trade route tensions [12] - Ethereum ETFs experienced a surge, with VanEck Ethereum ETF and 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF both up 17% as Ether price gained about 13% [13] - A crypto-based ETF, STKd 100% MSTR & 100% COIN ETF, rose by 16% in line with Bitcoin's rally [14] - The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF increased by 10.7% following a price hike announcement from two major Chinese rare earth producers, reflecting rising U.S.-China tensions [15]

市场对潜在过热通胀的反应，将检验当前这轮反弹的韧性。自4月8日低点以来，标普500指数已上涨约25%，即便特朗普祭出新关税威胁，股市仍屹立不 倒。 智通财经APP注意到，股市交易员似乎对周二可能公布超预期的通胀数据不以为意，这种掉以轻心使他们处于危险境地——若特朗普总统的贸易战推高美国 消费者价格，市场恐将遭受冲击。 花旗集团汇编数据显示，期权市场的押注显示交易员预计标普500指数将在今晚公布的6月CPI数据后波动0.6%，这与前两次低于预期的CPI公布日市场波动 幅度基本持平，但远低于过去一年此类数据公布日平均0.9%的实际波动幅度。 近期温和的通胀数据助推标普500指数强势反弹，同时刺激了市场高风险领域的投机热潮。但经济学家警告，关税推高消费者价格只是时间问题——债券投 资者显然已注意到这个风险，而股市却依然无动于衷。 "本月债券收益率持续攀升，说明固收交易员正在警惕这个风险，"Miller Tabak & Co.首席市场策略师马特·马利表示，"但股票交易员完全忽视了新关税可能 引发通胀升温的可能性。若数据高于预期，股市将遭遇意外震荡。" 若通胀再现加速迹象，将削弱美联储未来数月降息的理由，并使财政担忧重 ...

随着通胀温和、失业率稳定以及美股重回历史高点，特朗普似乎毫无理由收敛其全球对等关税野心。但 8月1日即将生效的30%对欧关税，或将首次给美国消费者和企业带来经济学家长期担忧的毁灭性打击。 "关税税率越高，滞胀风险就越大，"联博经济学家埃里克·维诺格拉德（Eric Winograd）指出。作为彼 此最大贸易伙伴，美欧供应链一旦断裂，破坏力将远超此前任何一轮关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩警 告，新关税将"破坏跨大西洋关键供应链，损害双方企业、消费者和患者的利益"。 尽管企业通过提前囤货暂时缓解了冲击，但库存耗尽后终将面临抉择——是将成本转嫁给愈发谨慎的消 费者，还是通过裁员来维持利润？ 白宫经济顾问哈塞特却坚称"数据未见负面影响"，并援引内部研究称进口商品价格自2月以来持续下 降。这种"数据爱国主义"论调遭专家质疑——毕竟最具杀伤力的关税尚未落地。 TS Lombard首席经济学家史蒂文·布利茨（Steven Blitz）指出："这本质是企业利润税，最终总要有人买 单。"在某个时候，企业将耗尽其现有库存，这意味着它们将不得不以更高的价格进口新的供应。 更棘手的是，美联储正陷入通胀与增长的双重困局。尽管市场预期9月可 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increased last week, giving most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not the norm. Most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging, and the polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options appropriately [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,470 yuan/ton, up 705 yuan; the position of the main contract is 69,821 lots, down 8,507 lots; the price difference between August and September polysilicon is 350 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,685 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, down 161 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, down 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, up 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, down 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, up 0.04 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and also impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil asked the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - measure decree on US tariffs. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion US dollars of US goods. The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering zero - tariff on more US imports. The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Macro - aspect - Currently, the CPI has turned positive, and the PPI continues to weaken. The market's expectations for the end - of - month meeting have increased. On the supply side of polysilicon, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises has increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others are under maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures have not significantly expanded the capacity fluctuation [2]