炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 固收彬法 作者：孙彬彬/隋修平/汪梦涵 摘 要 12月央行释放精准呵护信号，实际投放却略有收敛，展望明年1月，资金扰动显著增加，信贷/政府债开 门红叠加大税期和春节取现，怎么看？ 从季节性观察，1月第二周流动性开始收敛，关键是资金利率上行斜率和非银分层情况。从近期央行表 述看，货币政策精准盯市、熨平波动、配合财政、稳定债市的诉求较强，明年1月央行引导资金收敛的 诉求显著弱于2021、2023和2025，因此我们认为1月央行可能加大国债买卖力度以及降准，降息的可能 性也不低。 对于存单，考虑到资金面波动较小、存单到期量显著收敛、银行1月惯性增配等因素，我们认为CD利率 上限更清晰。 一、1月资金面怎么看？ 1、回顾12月流动性，有三个细节点值得关注：首先，从现实出发，资金已经是全年最乐观的状态；其 次，央行在金融时报中发言反复释放精准呵护信号，但行动却呈现环比谨慎的迹象；三是同银行间资金 宽松不类似，非银资金并未呈现明显的回落迹象，相较于4月之后4-5BP的R001-DR001资金分层，12月 分层有所加大。 2、如何理解央行言行和资金指 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is forecasted to show strong growth in the third quarter, with median annualized growth expected at 3.2%, attributed to a significant pullback in imports following earlier increases due to tariffs [1][12] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has reached extreme bullish levels at 8.5, which historically precedes market pullbacks, with global equities typically declining a median of 2.7% over the following two months [2][3][13] - The Fund Manager Survey indicates the most bullish sentiment in 3.5 years, driven by expectations of rate, tariff, and tax cuts [3][13] Market Performance - S&P 500 futures increased by 0.2% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.3%, reflecting a prevailing fear of missing out among investors [6][13] - Japan's Nikkei index rose by 1.5%, benefiting from a decline in the yen, which is expected to enhance export earnings for Japanese companies [7][13] Currency Movements - The yen reached record lows against the euro and Swiss franc, prompting concerns from Japan's currency officials about excessive declines and potential intervention [8][13] - The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies, having gained 0.3% recently, with a potential target of 158.00 for further upward movement [9][13] Equity Inflows - Equity markets experienced record inflows of $98 billion last week, primarily driven by U.S. equity funds, while Chinese equity funds saw significant inflows as well [10][13] Commodity Prices - Silver prices reached a new record at $67.48 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 134%, while gold rose to $4,362 per ounce [11][13] - Oil prices increased following U.S. actions against Venezuelan oil tankers, with Brent crude rising to $60.88 per barrel and U.S. crude to $56.89 per barrel [11][13]

国家税务总局政策法规司司长戴诗友：今年前11个月，税务部门共查处3904户高风险加油站，查补税款41.63亿元；查处1818名包括明星网红在内的“双高”人员，查补税款15.23亿元。今年以来，共有1168户重大税收违法失信主体采取自我改正措施后，实现了信用修复，提前移出“黑名单”，同比增长40%外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):央视：国家税务总局北京市税务局第三稽查局近期依法查处网络车评人陈震偷税案件。经查，2021年至2023年，陈震通过隐匿收入、转换收入性质、进行虚假申报等方式，少缴个人所得税共计118.67万元。国家税务总局北京市税务局第三稽查局，对其作出追缴税款、加收滞纳金并处罚款共计247.48万元的处理处罚决定 ...

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 出品单位：中国税务出版社 国家税务总局北京市税务局第四税务分局 国家税务总局北京市密云区税务局 来源 北京税务 欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 来源：北京税务 ( 品 95 C.P 姑 姑 ， 书 上 说 秋 收 很 重 要 ， 它 到 底 有 什 么 作 用 呀 ? 2 3 e & 向左滑动 S 脱收引导行为方 es and the states of the station of the first and the mail of the first and the mail the first and the mail the first and the mail the finance it and D.I TITLE t (e e Coridia h C ing and 100 ,80 B TR ( re y " 向定期到2 截至2025年10月24日,我公司有一 笔2025年6月所属期的增值税欠缴税 款200万元及对应滞纳金10万元;有 一笔2023年9月所属期的增值税欠税 已缴纳入库,对应的1万元滞纳金未 缴纳。同日,我公司申请并经税务机 关审核通过一笔企业所得税应退税款 3 ...

Taxation Overview - The article discusses various types of taxes in China, including value-added tax (VAT), consumption tax, customs duties, vehicle purchase tax, income tax, property and behavior taxes, and their implications for government revenue and consumer behavior [4][6][7]. Value-Added Tax (VAT) - VAT is levied on goods that undergo multiple production stages, with value added at each stage, leading to tax obligations for businesses [4]. - Certain special goods are subject to both VAT and consumption tax to promote rational consumption and reduce waste [4]. Consumption Tax - Consumption tax is aimed at discouraging excessive consumption of non-essential luxury goods, thereby promoting healthier consumption habits [4]. Customs Duties - Customs duties are imposed on imported and exported goods, serving to increase national revenue and regulate trade [5]. Vehicle Purchase Tax - A one-time vehicle purchase tax is applicable when buying a new car for personal use, while second-hand cars that have already paid this tax are exempt [5]. Income Tax - Income tax includes personal income tax and corporate income tax, where higher income levels result in higher tax rates, promoting fairness [6]. - Corporate income tax is generally fixed but may have exceptions for high-tech industries that receive tax incentives [6]. Property and Behavior Taxes - This category encompasses various taxes related to property and specific behaviors, such as property tax, contract tax, and environmental protection tax [7]. - Taxes are used to guide public behavior, such as reducing smoking through tobacco taxes and minimizing pollution through environmental taxes [7]. Export Tax Policies - Export enterprises are exempt from VAT on exported goods, with the corresponding input tax refunded. If the exported goods are subject to consumption tax, it is also refunded [16][18]. - Conditions for tax exemption include proper registration and documentation for export activities [20][22].

Group 1 - The essence of money is as a "general equivalent" that facilitates exchange in a society where division of labor exists, making self-sufficiency impossible [2] - The emergence of the state is fundamentally linked to the existence of "violent institutions" such as police and military, which require financial resources to operate [3][4] - The operational costs of state violence institutions, including expenses for law enforcement and military actions, are substantial and necessitate funding [5] Group 2 - Taxation is the primary source of revenue for the government, which is essential for maintaining state functions and services [6] - The stability of tax revenue is contingent upon the economic health of businesses and individuals; economic downturns lead to reduced tax income [7][9] - A thriving economy is crucial for government finances, as it directly impacts the ability to fund public services and pay salaries [10] Group 3 - The government should focus on developing the economy and optimizing the business environment to ensure citizens can earn income, thereby increasing tax revenue [11] - Excessive regulation and punitive measures against businesses can lead to economic decline, resulting in lower government revenue and potential financial crises [11][12] - Addressing social conflicts and ensuring the well-being of citizens can prevent unrest and contribute to a stable economic environment [13]

Group 1 - The latest VAT invoice data from the State Taxation Administration indicates a positive growth in the consumption market during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday [2] - Taxation is a method for the state to obtain fiscal revenue to provide public goods and meet social needs, functioning as a "public wallet" for the nation [7][9] - Tax revenue is utilized for public goods and infrastructure, such as education, healthcare, and major projects like highways and railways [11][12] Group 2 - Taxation has a long history, dating back over 4,000 years, with early forms of tax being contributions for communal projects [13] - The modern tax system is more scientific and equitable, adhering to the principle of "ability to pay," where higher income individuals and businesses bear a greater share of the tax burden [13] - Paying taxes is a fundamental obligation of citizens, representing a social responsibility that enables the government to provide necessary public goods for a better quality of life [13]

Core Insights - Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad indicated that the current exchange rate has impacted tax revenue positively, with the rate now at 5.30 reais per dollar, leading to a more optimistic outlook on the balance between interest rates and exchange rates [1] - The Brazilian economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate close to 3% by the end of President Lula's term, with unemployment expected to remain at historical lows and cumulative inflation reaching a four-year low, below 20% [1] - Haddad expressed hope that Brazil's potential GDP could exceed the current estimate of 2.5%, although he did not provide specific targets or pathways to achieve this [1] - Regarding U.S. tariffs on Brazil, Haddad described the measures as "political actions" and emphasized that Brazil should not be treated differently from Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, and the rest of South America [1]

Group 1 - The book "The Absurdity and Wisdom of Taxes: Stories from Tax History" by economists Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod presents engaging stories from tax history while introducing various academic findings related to taxation [1] - Governments throughout history have utilized various forms of taxation, including labor as a form of tax, with examples such as forced labor for monumental constructions like the Great Wall and pyramids [2] - Governments often resort to unconventional methods to finance expenditures, such as issuing currency to gain the difference between its value and production cost, known as "seigniorage" [3] Group 2 - Unique tax types have been implemented by governments to address social issues, such as Peter the Great's beard tax aimed at modernizing Russian nobility [4] - Historical tax systems often favored the wealthy, with examples like the tax exemptions for the nobility in France under Louis XIV, leading to social unrest and contributing to the French Revolution [5] - In multi-ethnic states, tax policies have sometimes discriminated against certain religious groups, with examples of special taxes imposed on Jews in Christian countries [6] Group 3 - The economic concept of tax incidence highlights that the legal obligation to pay taxes may differ from who ultimately bears the tax burden, as seen in the case of a special tax on households employing maids in 1785 England [7] - Policymakers sometimes fail to implement effective measures to ensure that tax burdens are passed on to consumers, leading to ineffective tax policies [8] - Taxpayer responses to taxation can lead to reduced economic activity, resulting in "deadweight loss," which represents a loss of societal welfare [9] Group 4 - The design of tax systems can lead to unintended consequences, such as the historical port and lighthouse fees based on ship dimensions rather than actual draft depth, resulting in unsafe vessel designs [10] - Tax incentives for small businesses can create disincentives for growth, leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation [11] - Tax evasion remains a significant issue, with estimates indicating that a substantial portion of tax liabilities goes unpaid, particularly in developing countries [12] Group 5 - Large corporations, especially multinational companies, are often scrutinized for tax avoidance strategies, but they also facilitate tax compliance for governments due to their structured payroll systems [13] - The book also discusses optimal tax design, international tax competition, and government debt, providing a comprehensive overview of tax economics [13]

Fiscal Performance - General fiscal expenditure cumulative year-on-year growth reached 9.3%, aligning with the annual budget level[3] - General fiscal revenue for January to July was 13.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 16.1 trillion yuan, up 3.4%[6] - In July, general fiscal revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 12.4%[9] Revenue and Taxation - Tax revenue has shown positive year-on-year growth for four consecutive months, with July's tax revenue increasing by 4.6%[9] - Major tax categories such as VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax grew by 4.3%, 5.4%, 6.4%, and 13.9% respectively[9] - Non-tax revenue saw a decline, with July's non-tax revenue down 12.4% year-on-year[9] Expenditure Trends - Social security, health, and education expenditures increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 14.2%, and 4.6% respectively[9] - Infrastructure spending has been reduced, with traditional infrastructure sectors showing negative growth[9] - Debt interest payments rose to 8.9% year-on-year, indicating increasing pressure on debt management[9] Land Sales and Special Bonds - Land sale revenue continued to show positive growth, increasing by 7% year-on-year, supported by active land market transactions[9] - Special bonds and specific government bonds have significantly bolstered fund expenditures, with fund spending growing by 31.7% year-on-year[9] Government Debt and Future Outlook - The front-loading of government debt has boosted fiscal expenditure, but expectations for economic stability still require fiscal support[9] - Excluding capital injections and debt relief funds, general fiscal expenditure growth would drop from 9.3% to 2.9%[9] - The net financing of government debt is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, impacting local government cash flow and economic indicators[9]