Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting held on June 17-18, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing economic expansion and inflation concerns [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand steadily, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting the data [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market conditions are still robust [1] - Inflation rates are still slightly elevated, indicating ongoing price pressures in the economy [1] Economic Outlook - Participants in the meeting unanimously agreed that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has decreased but remains high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate an increase in market expectations for the trajectory of the federal funds rate over the next year [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve staff noted a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions and an improvement in global economic growth prospects [1] - Investor risk sentiment has heightened, reflecting a more optimistic outlook [1] - The military conflict between Israel and Iran has had limited impact outside the energy markets [1] Group 2 - Market-implied federal funds rate expectations have risen during the intermeeting period [1]

金十数据7月10日讯，最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，在考虑货币政策前景时，与会者普遍认为， 由于经济增长和劳动力市场仍然稳健，而当前的货币政策或有适度的限制性，委员会完全有能力等待通 胀和经济活动前景更加明朗。一些与会者指出，如果数据的发展符合他们的预期，他们将愿意在下次会 议上考虑下调政策利率的目标区间。一些与会者认为最可能的适当货币政策路径是今年不下调联邦基金 利率的目标区间，并指出最近的通胀数据继续超过委员会 2% 的目标。几位与会者评论说，联邦基金利 率的当前目标区间可能不会远高于其中性水平。 美联储会议纪要：一些与会者愿意在下次会议上考虑降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal a division among officials into three main camps regarding interest rate policy, indicating a complex outlook for future monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Camps - Officials are divided into three primary factions: one advocating for rate cuts later in the year but excluding July, another favoring a hold on rates throughout the year, and a third group pushing for immediate action in the next meeting [1] - The mainstream faction supports a rate cut later in the year, while only a minority of participants, including Fed governors Waller and Bowman, support immediate action [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Several participants indicated that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be significantly above neutral levels, suggesting limited room for further cuts unless there is a substantial economic slowdown [1] - The minutes imply that even if rate cuts are resumed, the subsequent reduction potential will be quite constrained [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that some policymakers believe the current federal funds rate may not be significantly above the neutral rate [1] Group 1 - Some decision-makers at the Federal Reserve expressed that the current federal funds rate might not be far above the neutral rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that several participants believe the current federal funds rate may not be significantly higher than the neutral rate [1] Group 1 - Several Federal Reserve participants expressed that the existing federal funds rate is likely to remain close to the neutral rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that all participants agree it is appropriate to maintain the federal funds rate within the current target range [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - All attendees of the meeting believe that keeping the federal funds rate steady is suitable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate to return to zero, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding future interest rates and the implications for monetary policy [3][4][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Projections - Research indicates a 9% probability that the federal funds rate will hit the "zero lower bound" within the next seven years, with current interest rate uncertainty being a significant factor [4]. - The likelihood of rates returning to zero within the next two years is estimated at 1% [6]. - The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate target range to 5.25%-5.5% from March 2022 to July 2023, moving significantly away from the zero lower bound [7]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Market discussions are ongoing regarding the timing of potential interest rate cuts and the terminal rate level, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting a possible rate cut in September [8]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate down to 3%-3.25%, which remains above the zero lower bound [9]. - The chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs estimates a slightly higher than 50% chance of a rate cut in September, with further cuts expected in October and December [8][10].

Core Insights - The probability of the federal funds rate reaching the "zero lower bound" (ZLB) in the next seven years is estimated at 9%, with current rate uncertainty exacerbating this risk [2] - Despite higher expected interest rates compared to the past decade, significant uncertainty remains, keeping the ZLB risk notable [2] - Empirical evidence suggests that changes in interest rate expectations are the primary drivers of ZLB risk [2] Historical Context - The Federal Reserve first lowered rates to the 0%-0.25% range during the 2008 financial crisis to stimulate economic recovery, maintaining this level for seven years [3] - Rates were again reduced to zero in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, lasting for two years [3] - Recent research indicates that the risk of returning to ZLB persists, influenced by complex economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and global economic sluggishness [3]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve researchers, including New York Fed President John Williams, concluded that the Fed cannot assume its benchmark interest rate will remain far from zero in the future [1][3] - There is a 9% probability that the federal funds rate will hit the "zero lower bound" in the next seven years, with current rate uncertainty exacerbating this risk [3][4] - The analysis indicates that market expectations regarding interest rates are the primary driver of fluctuations in the zero lower bound risk [4] Interest Rate Projections - The probability of rates returning to zero in the next two years is only 1%, with historical context showing rates were at 0% to 0.25% during the 2008 financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic [5] - From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised rates 11 times, bringing the target range to 5.25% to 5.5%, significantly distancing from the zero lower bound [5] - Currently, the Fed has maintained rates between 4.25% and 4.5% since September of the previous year, with discussions ongoing about potential rate cuts [5] Market Reactions and Predictions - Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh expressed sympathy for the President's frustration with the Fed's current rate policy, suggesting that rates should be lowered further [6] - Goldman Sachs economists predict a likelihood of rate cuts in September, citing smaller-than-expected impacts from tariff policies and stronger deflationary forces [6][7] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate down to 3% - 3.25%, still above the zero lower bound, while maintaining a long-term view on neutral rates and economic conditions [7]