Central Bank Dynamics - The Trump administration is using the $700 million overspend on the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation as a potential reason to dismiss Chairman Powell before his term ends in May 2026 [1] - Federal Reserve officials show significant disagreement regarding interest rate cuts, primarily due to differing expectations on the inflation impact of tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.7 trillion, with bank reserves at $3.3 trillion, and discussions on further balance sheet reduction are ongoing [3] Global Central Bank Responses - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering maintaining flexible monetary policy in response to economic growth risks and potential deflation [4] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey prefers central banks to provide tokenized deposits [6] - The Bank of Japan has completely sold off its holdings in bank stocks, focusing attention on its larger ETF holdings, which could take over 200 years to liquidate at the current pace [6] Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - U.S. inflation indicators are showing signs of upward pressure, with companies beginning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [9] - Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9%, with a net addition of 83,100 jobs, which may influence the Bank of Canada's upcoming monetary policy decisions [10] - The Bank of Korea has paused interest rate cuts, citing significant economic uncertainty from U.S. tariffs [7]

Group 1: US Trade Policy and Economic Data - Trump announced tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, with a delay on "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1[1] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 227,000, marking the lowest level in two months and a fourth consecutive week of decline[1] - The GDPNow model predicts a 2.6% annualized growth rate for Q2 2025[1] Group 2: Global Market Overview - US stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 0.3%, 1.0%, and 0.1% respectively, primarily due to rising trade uncertainties[1] - The Euro STOXX 600 index rose by 1.1%, while the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.6%[1] - The US dollar index increased by 0.91% to 97.87, reflecting heightened inflation risks and cautious rate cut expectations[1] Group 3: Bond and Commodity Markets - The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 3.90%, while the 10-year yield increased by 8 basis points to 4.43%[1] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.0% and 2.9% respectively, driven by lower Russian production[1] - Gold prices increased by 0.6%, reflecting a rise in risk aversion among investors[1] Group 4: Economic Risks and Forecasts - Risks include potential overreach of Trump's policies, unexpected levels of stagflation in the US, and volatility in global financial markets[1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July increased from 4.7% to 6.7%[1]

Core Viewpoint - The Italian Foreign Minister suggests that in response to U.S. tariffs, the European Central Bank should consider implementing a new quantitative easing program and interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Italian Foreign Minister's statement highlights the potential economic impact of U.S. tariffs on Europe [1] - The call for a new quantitative easing program indicates a proactive approach to stimulate the European economy [1] - Interest rate cuts are proposed as a measure to counteract the negative effects of tariffs and support economic growth [1]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20790，基差95，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增8565吨至103197吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地 ...

旧金山联储主席戴利在2025年7月11日前后多次就美国经济前景发表观点。 戴利明确表示，2025年仍可能有两次降息，并提到"考虑在秋季实施降息"。 下跌至3320.00站稳后做多，目标3350.00 现货白银 戴利对特朗普政府的关税政策持相对乐观态度，认为其对通胀的冲击可能较预期温和。 她指出，关税可能导致物价水平一次性上涨，但不会显著推高长期通胀预期。这一观点与美联储6月会 议纪要中"关税影响可能被推迟而非消失"的判断部分一致，但更强调企业适应能力。 她提到"秋季实施降息"，可能对应美联储9月或12月会议。这一表述与市场预期（9月降息概率约60%） 基本吻合，但需等待通胀数据验证。 交易策略： 现货黄金 她认为美国通胀正逐步迈向2%的目标，尽管进程较慢，但未出现反弹风险。例如，企业通过协商分摊 关税成本、调整利润空间等方式，减少了终端消费者的价格压力。 美国第一季度GDP环比下降0.5%，消费支出疲软，但劳动力市场保持韧性（6月非农就业增加14.4万， 失业率3.7%）。戴利认为经济"增长和消费放缓但未减弱"，降息旨在预防经济进一步下行而非应对危 机。 美联储6月会议纪要显示，内部对降息存在分歧，但戴利的观 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump continues to challenge the Federal Reserve, criticizing Chairman Powell's performance and pushing for interest rate cuts, which could drive gold prices higher if the Fed responds to his pressure [2] - Trump's recent imposition of a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU may negatively impact the dollar's credibility, leading to a depreciation of the dollar that would benefit gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong short-term bullish trend for gold, with a focus on resistance at $3392 and support at $3343 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are creating uncertainty in the Middle East, which is expected to provide support for oil prices [4] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 424, suggesting a potential decline in U.S. crude oil production, which could also support oil prices [4] - The IEA's monthly report has raised oil supply forecasts for the next two years while lowering demand expectations, indicating limited upside potential for oil prices [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Recent strong performance in copper prices has led to a significant breakout above previous highs, suggesting a high probability of maintaining a strong short-term trend [7] - Short-term focus is on testing support at $5.35 after a strong upward movement [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with indicators showing a downward trend below the 20-day moving average, raising concerns about further declines [8] - Attention is on testing support at 38879 [8]

Group 1 - As of July 11, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai silver futures closed at 9040 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase in open interest by 152,238 contracts [1] - During the week of July 7-11, the Shanghai silver futures opened at 8919 yuan/kg, reached a high of 9118 yuan/kg, and a low of 8840 yuan/kg, resulting in a weekly change of 1.38% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a dovish stance, with Waller suggesting a potential rate cut in July and Daly emphasizing that tariffs may not impact inflation as much as expected, indicating room for about two rate cuts this year [2] - On July 9, the trading volume for silver futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was 50,874 contracts, a decrease of 9,779 contracts from the previous trading day [2] - On July 10, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease of 23,751 kg in silver warehouse receipts, with a total reduction of 43,634 kg over the past week, representing a decline of 3.25% [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Futures believes that after a significant rebound, silver prices will revert to fundamentals under commodity attributes, with global silver supply expected to increase and demand to decrease, narrowing the supply-demand gap to a four-year low [3] - Jinyuan Futures notes that despite Trump's tariffs boosting demand for safe-haven assets, a strong US dollar limits gold price increases, while high copper tariffs are positively impacting silver prices [3] - The current market's reduced sensitivity to tariffs and rising risk assets have diminished gold's attractiveness, while silver's strong performance is attributed to its low price and demand for a rebound [3]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普宣布对欧盟、墨西哥征收30%关税 美联储古尔斯比：最新的关税威胁或推迟降息 财政部：加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核 科创板试点IPO预先审阅机制 "国铀一号"成功生产下线"第一桶铀" 市场盘点 上周五，美元指数区间震荡，始终徘徊在98关口下方，最终收涨0.307%，报97.85，全周累涨近1%，脱离三年来的低点。美债收益率大涨，基准的10年期美 债收益率收报4.412%，2年期美债收益率收报3.91%。 由于特朗普宣布更多关税信函后避险情绪升温，现货黄金连续第三日走高，盘中触及6月24日以来的最高水平，最终收涨0.99%，收报3355.91美元/盎司；现 货白银涨势更加显著，最终收涨3.56%，报38.38美元/盎司，创2011年9月以来新高。 随着油市焦点转移至美国对俄罗斯的潜在制裁，两油盘中拉升。WTI原油站上67美元关口，最终收涨2.55%，报67.59美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨2.53%，报 70.04美元/桶。 美联储总部翻修问题成扳倒鲍威尔的关键 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The week started with gold prices experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, followed by a rebound on Wednesday and continued upward movement on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a weekly candlestick with a lower shadow [2] - The Trump administration has intensified trade policies, imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on imported copper, which may lead to increased manufacturing costs in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $100.4 billion in May 2024, contributing to uncertainty in trade policies that support gold prices [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.5% during the June meeting, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025 [3] - Market expectations indicate a 70% probability of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood for July is only 15% [3] - Various Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on potential rate cuts, with some supporting a July cut while others remain cautious [4] Group 3: Economic Data and Indicators - The upcoming focus will be on the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a 3.1% year-over-year increase and a 3.4% rise in core CPI, which could influence the likelihood of a July rate cut [4] - Other important economic indicators include retail sales and the preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The current market movement aligns with the expected wave structure, indicating that the second wave's adjustment is concluding, and a third wave structure is anticipated to begin [8] - The focus for the upcoming week will be on confirming the completion of the second wave's three-wave structure before entering the C-3 wave opportunity [11]

Group 1 - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Defense, Jiang Bin, commented on Japan's claims regarding Chinese military aircraft "abnormally approaching" Japanese planes, stating that recent Japanese reconnaissance activities in China's East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone were met with lawful and professional responses from Chinese military aircraft [1] - Jiang emphasized that the actions of Japanese naval and air forces conducting close reconnaissance against China are the root cause of security risks in Sino-Japanese maritime and aerial relations [1] - The spokesperson expressed a desire for both countries to work towards creating a stable environment for the development of bilateral relations [1]