金十数据5月14日讯，潘森宏观首席英国经济学家Robert Wood表示，随着就业市场逐渐走弱，英国央行 今年可能会再降息两次。本周公布的数据显示，英国的失业率正在上升，但速度缓慢，而不是急剧上 升，同时薪酬增长也在放缓。英国央行的政策委员会可以放松利率。尽管如此，仍有迹象表明，一些潜 在因素在保持薪资快速增长，并阻止通胀达到央行2%的目标。这意味着英国央行不太可能连续降息， 但在2月和5月降息后，今年有再降息两次的空间。 机构：英国失业率上升，料英央行今年将再降息两次 ...

德勤首席经济学家Ian Stewart在给客户的一份研究报告中写道，英国就业市场放缓的迹象可能会促使今 年晚些时候进一步降息。Stewart表示，在失业率上升和职位空缺减少的情况下，持续强劲的薪资上涨 是一个亮点。"但由于雇主在招聘方面持谨慎态度，失业率可能会继续上升，而薪资增长将开始放 缓，"他说。"劳动力市场走弱可能会强化今年晚些时候进一步降息的理由。" ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has postponed its expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates until the end of the year and has lowered the probability of a U.S. recession [1] - The European Central Bank will maintain its aggressive stimulus policies from the past decade during its strategic assessment, avoiding calls for self-criticism after experiencing high inflation and significant losses [1] - Traders have reduced their bets on the Bank of England, expecting the rate cut to be less than 50 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, stated that if the global economy shows signs of recovery, Japan's economy is likely to rebound, which would enhance overall inflation and inflation expectations [1] - Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, plans to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during the upcoming G7 meeting in Canada to discuss foreign exchange issues [1] - The Chinese yuan's midpoint against the U.S. dollar was raised by 75 points to 7.1991, marking the highest level since April 7, 2025, with the largest increase since January 21, 2025 [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.8 trillion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation today, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [1]

Group 1 - The eurozone benchmark German government bond yield has risen to a one-month high, indicating a significant decrease in market expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2] - ECB Governing Council member Schnabel stated that the central bank should stop cutting rates due to rising price pressures from global economic turmoil, with inflation potentially exceeding the 2% target in the medium term [2] - The market anticipates the ECB's deposit rate in December to be 1.75%, higher than previous expectations of 1.55% to 1.67% [2] Group 2 - The euro to USD exchange rate is facing strong resistance at 1.1570 and is currently testing key trend support, with downside risks accumulating near the 50-day moving average at 1.1070 [3] - The currency pair has formed a series of lower highs and lows over the past month, indicating a weakening upward momentum, confirmed by the daily MACD indicator [3] - If the support at the 50-day moving average around 1.1070 is breached, further declines may occur, targeting the range of the March high of 1.1025 to 1.0950 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article questions the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" strategy amidst a global trend of central banks cutting interest rates, raising concerns about whether the Fed might repeat the mistake of raising rates too late [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Federal Reserve's current approach is under scrutiny as other central banks are moving towards rate cuts [1] - There is a growing debate on whether the Fed will adjust its policy in response to global economic conditions [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Trends - A trend of interest rate cuts is observed among global central banks, indicating a shift in monetary policy [1] - The implications of these rate cuts could influence the Fed's future decisions and economic outlook [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

欧洲央行管委警告 必须对下一步降息保持谨慎 金十数据5月13日讯，欧洲央行两名管委会成员表示，鉴于美国总统特朗普的经济政策存在高度不确定 性，欧洲央行在决定下一步利率举措时必须谨慎。欧洲央行管委内格尔和管委艾斯克里瓦强调了美国新 政府带来的挑战，包括在欧元区制定货币政策的困难。"我们在评估当前形势时需要保持谦逊，"艾斯克 里瓦表示，并补充称欧洲央行必须收集更多信息，"努力理清哪些因素占上风。"内格尔则表示："关于 货币政策的决定，重要的是要保持谨慎，不要过度强调可能很快改变的具体公告。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank have decreased, with the year-end deposit rate now projected to be 1.75%, up from 1.67% last Friday [1]

接受调查的经济学家认为，欧洲央行今年的降息幅度将超出此前预期，因通胀率到2026年初预计将低于 该行目标。一项月度调查显示，在七次下调利率25个基点后，欧洲央行可能在6月和9月进一步采取行 动。这将使存款利率从目前的2.25%降至1.75%。 ...

BMO：加拿大央行6月降息的可能性"明显增加" 金十数据5月9日讯，BMO Capital Markets首席经济学家道格•波特表示，尽管与选举相关的就业岗位暂 时提振了加拿大4月份的就业数据，但仍令人沮丧。波特说，这个月净增加的7400个工作岗位掩盖了一 些令人吃惊的数字。他说， 其中最主要的是制造业岗位减少了近3.1万个，这与该行业在疫情和2008- 2009年全球金融危机期间的下降幅度相似。波特对客户说："不需要进行考古挖掘就能意识到这是一份 疲弱的报告。"他补充说，平均时薪增长已经放缓至三年来的最低水平。他表示，就业数据"明显增加 了"加拿大央行6月份降息25个基点的可能性。 ...