Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate has significantly increased during the holiday, with a rise of over 600 basis points on May 2 and breaking the 7.20 mark for the first time since November of the previous year on May 5 [2] - The Hong Kong dollar has shown strong performance, reaching the strong end of its trading range for the second consecutive day, with a peak at 7.75 before retracting slightly [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market by buying USD and selling 46.539 billion HKD due to the Hong Kong dollar's strength, attributed to increased stock investment demand and regional currency appreciation [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in the offshore RMB is influenced by improved expectations for China's foreign trade environment, driven by news from major US retailers resuming shipments to Chinese suppliers [3] - The market anticipates multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, leading to speculative buying of non-USD currencies [3] - The offshore RMB's exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.2 and 7.3, reflecting a growing correlation with the USD index amid recent volatility [3]

【文/观察者网 王一】股市、GDP（国内生产总值）等种种美国经济正朝着不好的方向前进的迹象，让 选民们对总统特朗普处理经济的方式感到愈发不满。而对于一切指责，特朗普的态度是：经济的"好部 分"应该归功于他，"坏部分"则都怪前总统拜登。 在美国全国广播公司（NBC）当地时间5月4日播出的"会见媒体"节目中，主持人克里斯汀·维尔克 （Kristen Welker）向特朗普提问道，"什么时候才是特朗普经济"？ "我认为好的部分是特朗普经济，坏的部分是拜登的经济，"特朗普"嘶"了一声后回答道，"因为他做得 很糟糕，他把所有事情都做得很糟糕，从他的自动笔——我敢肯定他对此一无所知，还有一些他本应签 署的东西。" 当地时间5月4日，特朗普接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）"会见媒体"节目采访。 视频截图 美国"政客新闻网"4日指出，特朗普没有详细说明他如何区分特朗普经济和拜登经济，但他上任100天以 来，一直致力于颠覆全球经济和贸易格局，对包括盟友在内的国家征收高额关税，试图将制造业迁回美 国。 特朗普最终暂缓90天对部分国家征收"对等关税"，但消费者信心已大幅下降，美国经济在2025年第一季 度出现了萎缩，与2024年最后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar struggles to maintain its position despite a solid employment report, as uncertainties regarding trade policies persist [1] Economic Indicators - The March employment report indicates a robust job market, providing support for the dollar and reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June [1] - The employment report suggests that the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to remain on hold during the upcoming policy meeting [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The possibility of a rate cut in June has become more challenging following the employment report, indicating a shift towards a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve [1] - Michael Feroli from JPMorgan highlights that the dual mandate faces dual risks in uncertain times, leading the Federal Reserve to prefer patience until the economic outlook becomes clearer [1]

文丨太阳当空赵 本文陈述内容皆有可靠信息来源，赘述在文章中间 编辑丨太阳当空赵 前言 特朗普凭借一己之力，把世界搅得动荡不安，然而，首当其冲受到波及的美国，如今的美国正在经历着前所未有的"撕裂"。 4月30日，美参议院围绕取消关税一事做出投票，表决结果一度持平在49票，最终美国副总统万斯投出了关键性一票。 而据最新民调显示，特朗普执政百日的支持率已经创下80年历任总统最低。在不少人看来，特朗普之举就是在搬起石头砸自己的脚…… 重大分歧 美国当地时间4月30日，一场关于阻止特朗普对全球征收关税的动议表决在美参议院进行，在进行表决投票时，参议员们出现重大分歧，最终表决结果 以49票赞成、49票反对呈持平状态。 在投票时，由于一直没能达到审议所需的多票数，最终民主党和共和党只能暂时搁置这一表决进行新的表决。有意思的是，在对"搁置取消关税"进行 表决时，双方再次呈现49票的平票结果。 出现这样戏剧性的一幕，显然是众人没有料到的，眼看支持与反对的票数僵持不下，最终还是副总统万斯投出了赞成性的关键一票，就此，暂时搁置 了阻止特朗普关税政策的表决。本次投票，民主党与共和党双方可谓势均力敌，而这也反映出特朗普的支持率正在下跌 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite pressures on the US economy, better-than-expected non-farm payroll data has alleviated concerns about a recession, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more patient approach [1][3][6] - In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations [2][3] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, up from the previous 62.5%, indicating a rise in participation among older age groups [5] Group 2 - Employment in the transportation and warehousing sector saw a significant rebound, adding 29,000 jobs in April, compared to just 3,000 in March, which partially offset the negative impact of tariffs on employment data [4] - Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors experienced job losses, with retail employment decreasing by 2,000 and leisure/hospitality adding only 24,000 jobs, both significantly lower than previous values [4] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, improved to 7.8%, down from 7.9% in the previous month, indicating better conditions in the part-time job market [5]

Employment Data Summary - In April 2025, the U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 but lower than the revised previous value of 185,000[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's figure[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, in line with the previous value but slightly below the expected 3.9%[1] Sector Performance - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a significant rebound, adding 29,000 jobs in April, up from just 3,000 in March, partially offsetting job losses in other sectors[3] - Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors experienced job declines, with retail jobs decreasing by 2,000 and leisure/hospitality jobs increasing by only 24,000, both significantly lower than previous values[3][17] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.6%, up from 62.5% in the previous month, indicating increased engagement from older age groups[4] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 82,000, while the employed population rose by 436,000, contributing to the stable unemployment rate[4][32] Economic Outlook - Despite the economic pressures, the better-than-expected non-farm data has alleviated some recession fears, suggesting the Federal Reserve may adopt a more patient approach[5] - Following the non-farm data release, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.33%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in July 2025 at 55.2% probability[5][45] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy, escalating international trade tensions, and geopolitical developments that could impact economic stability[6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. non-farm employment population decreased slightly from 185,000 to 177,000 in April, which is better than the expected decline to 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. remained stable at 4.2%, showing no further deterioration [2] - The latest employment data suggests that despite a contraction of -0.3% in the U.S. economy during the first quarter, the non-farm employment figures have not shown significant decline, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy [2] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming May meeting, as the employment data does not warrant aggressive rate cuts [2] - President Trump has been advocating for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to mitigate the negative impacts of his tariff policies on the U.S. economy [2] - If the Federal Reserve continues its cautious approach and slows down the pace of rate cuts, the U.S. economy may not show significant recovery in the second quarter and could potentially face technical recession [2] - Former Treasury Secretaries Summers and Yellen have expressed concerns that the current economic policies are self-destructive and may not achieve their intended goals [2]

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 177,000 in April, surpassing economists' expectations of 130,000, although it was lower than the previous month [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly rose to 62.6%, with the participation rate for the core working age group (25-54 years) reaching a seven-month high [7] Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in April was led by the healthcare and transportation sectors, while manufacturing saw significant job losses due to a decline in overall PMI output [6] - The transportation and warehousing sector experienced its highest job growth since December, driven by a surge in import orders before the implementation of tariffs [6] - The federal government has seen job cuts for three consecutive months, marking the longest streak of layoffs since 2022, primarily due to budget cuts [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Predictions - Economists predict that the most severe impacts of tariff policies will manifest in the coming months, potentially accelerating layoffs [5][8] - The probability of the U.S. entering a recession within the next 12 months has increased significantly, with estimates rising from 30% to 45% [9] - Consumer confidence has dropped to historical lows, and households are expected to face reduced spending power due to inflationary pressures [9]

金十数据5月2日讯，Principal资产管理公司t首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，我们可以将对经济衰退的 担忧再推迟一个月。就业数据仍然非常强劲，这表明在关税冲击之前，经济存在令人印象深刻的弹性。 这表明，经济疲软可能在几个月内不会真正体现在数据中，这反过来又会将美联储的下一次降息时点推 至第三季度。经济将在未来几个月疲软，但凭借现在这种潜在的势头，如果美国能够及时从关税边缘退 下来，就有可能避免经济衰退。 机构：就目前而言，美国经济衰退已经推迟了 ...

进口激增是关键因素之一，企业为了应对关税提前囤货，导致进口数据从GDP中被大量扣除。理论上， 这应该被库存增加所抵消，但奇怪的是，数据并未显示这一点。S&P Global的经济学家Ben Herzon估 计，如果没有商务部经济分析局的假设，GDP实际上可能萎缩1.5%，而非0.3%。 有分析指出 ，尽管关税问题引发了广泛讨论，但目前几乎没有关税成本真正传导到美国消费者身上。 零售商目前正努力维持价格稳定，这或许是因为他们希望特朗普会进一步做出让步。 美国第一季度GDP数据意外萎缩0.3%令人失望，然而，这一数据尚未充分反映出特朗普关税政策、联 邦政府削减开支以及移民政策的深远影响。市场正密切关注周五（今晚）公布的4月非农就业报告，这 将是自特朗普于4月2日宣布对等关税政策以来的首个关键"硬数据"，其重要性不言而喻。 华尔街分析师预计，4月非农新增就业人数为13.3万，虽比前几个月有所减少，但仍处于健康的状态， 失业率将维持在4.2%的水平。而根据ADP此前公布的数据，私营企业就业仅增长6.2万，ADP的预测通 常与实际数据相差较大。 美银分析师Michael Hartnett表示，只要就业数据保持韧性，降低关 ...