美联储发布最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（俗称"褐皮书"）。这份报告汇总了美联储12家地区银行在过去几周收集到的美国各地经济现状和 前景信息，将作为美联储5月召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议的重要决策参考。报告指出，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变 化，但国际贸易政策的不确定性普遍存在。 据北京日报报道，美国副总统万斯5月在接受采访时称，美联储主席鲍威尔"这个人不错"，但他同时表示鲍威尔"几乎在所有事情上都错了"。 "好吧，首先，我认为总统对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的看法是正确的。杰罗姆·鲍威尔，他这个人不错，但他几乎在所有事情上都错了。"万斯在接受福 克斯新闻网采访时表示。他随后称，鲍威尔在应对美国前总统拜登造成的通胀问题时行动迟缓，现在协助特朗普政府反击贸易协议时也反应太 迟。"因此，我认为杰罗姆·鲍威尔在这一点上就是错了。"他补充说。 美联储（资料图） 美国经济（资料图） 20世纪50年代起，美国制造业"空心化"态势就已经显现。如今，制造业在美国经济总量当中占比仅一成左右，经济结构的转变推动了美国企业 将更多制造环节向效率更高、成本更低的地方迁移。而包括中国在内的其他国家承接美国企业的部分生产环节，则是基 ...

据报道，摩根大通称美国经济哀退风险目前低于50%，预计美联储将在12月降息，此前预计9月降息。 ...

金十整理：中美会谈后，美国CPI前，投行最新美联储降息预测 1. 高盛：推后美联储降息预期至12月（此前预期为7月）， 下调美国衰退可能性至35%。 2. 摩根大通：预计美联储将在12月降息，此前预期为9月。美国经济衰退的风险现已降至50%以下。 3. 花旗：将下一次美联储降息的预测时间从六月推迟至七月，美联储现在可以更舒适地保持耐心。 4. 巴克莱：预计美联储将在12月降息，此前预期为7月。预计美联储将在2026年3月、6月及9月均降息25 个基点。 ...

摩根大通：美国经济衰退的风险目前低于50%。 预计美联储将于12月降息，此前预计为9月。 ...

智通财经5月13日电，摩根大通称美国经济衰退风险目前低于50%。摩根大通预计美联储将在12月降 息，此前预计9月降息。 ...

摩根大通：美国经济衰退的风险现已降至50%以下。预计美联储将在12月降息，此前预期为9月。 ...

巴克莱：预计2025年下半年美国不会陷入衰退，之前的预测为温和衰退。 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have led to a decline, with spot gold dropping to $3,215.79 per ounce on May 13, down over 6% from the peak of $3,431.54 on May 6 [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with major brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook reducing their prices to below 1,000 yuan per gram, reflecting a drop of over 30 yuan compared to previous highs [1] - Market analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to optimistic sentiments regarding the US-China trade agreement, which has reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, factors such as US tariff pressures, policy uncertainties, and geopolitical risks are expected to support gold prices despite recent declines [2] - The World Gold Council reported that gold jewelry demand in China fell to 125 tons in Q1, a 32% year-on-year decrease, while investment demand for gold bars and coins surged to 124 tons, marking a 48% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 12% year-on-year increase [2] - The overall spending on gold jewelry in China remained relatively stable at 84.1 billion yuan, although it experienced a 7% decline year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards smaller, more affordable gold products [2]

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry demand has been under pressure, decreasing by 32% year-on-year in Q1 due to high gold prices, reduced consumer demand, and a decline in the number of retail gold stores [1][3] - The average price of gold jewelry in major retail stores has dropped below 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable reductions in prices from brands such as Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook [1] - Despite the decline in gold jewelry demand, total consumer spending on gold jewelry remains relatively stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 7%, amounting to 841 billion yuan (approximately 115 billion USD) [3] Group 2 - Investment demand for gold bars and coins has surged to 124 tons, marking a 48% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 12% increase year-on-year, driven by high gold prices and increased risk aversion due to U.S.-China trade tensions [3] - Analysts predict that gold prices may face further downward pressure in the short term, with a forecasted price adjustment to 3,150 USD in the next three months, while maintaining a year-end target of 3,600 USD [3] - The World Gold Council attributes the decline in gold jewelry consumption to high prices leading consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, as well as a shift towards smaller, more affordable gold products [3]

智通财经5月13日电，高盛将未来12个月美国经济衰退的可能性从45%下调至35%。 ...