Core Viewpoint - Gold has become a focal point as international gold prices surged past $4,200, reaching a historical high, prompting significant interest in gold-themed ETFs in China [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On October 15, the London spot gold price reached $4,218 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures hit $4,235 per ounce, both setting new records [5]. - The scale of gold-themed ETFs in China has surpassed 200 billion yuan, with a total of 2,180.19 billion yuan as of October 15, marking a significant increase from 730.53 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, representing a growth of approximately 198% [5][6]. Group 2: ETF Performance - Among the 20 gold-themed ETFs, 14 are gold ETFs and 6 are gold stock ETFs, with an average annual return of 55% for the gold ETFs and 96% for the gold stock ETFs [3][6]. - Five gold-themed ETFs have entered the "100 billion club," with the Huaan Gold ETF leading with a net inflow of 278.22 billion yuan this year, reaching a total size of 788.47 billion yuan, a 1.75 times increase from the beginning of the year [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The current surge in gold prices is attributed to a shift in perception, where gold is transitioning from a "safe-haven asset" to a "credit substitute" amid a global trend of "de-dollarization" [3][8]. - Institutional investors suggest that gold should be viewed as a long-term strategic asset to address uncertainties in the global monetary system, rather than just a short-term hedge [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Many institutions maintain a bullish long-term outlook for gold, citing ongoing issues with the dollar's credit as a core factor supporting gold prices [11][12]. - The anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical uncertainties are expected to provide further support for gold prices [11][12]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a cautious approach to investing in gold, advocating for strategies such as "long-term dollar-cost averaging" and "buying on dips" [15][16]. - Suggested allocation strategies vary, with aggressive investors advised to allocate 30%-40% to gold, while conservative investors may consider a central allocation of around 10% [16][17]. Cautious investors are advised to limit their allocation to below 2% [18][19].

海外宏观 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 本周（10 月 3 日至 10 月10 日）：全球金融市场波动加剧，美股、欧股 下跌，黄金、美债及美元指数上涨，原油受挫。10 月 10 日，受特朗普 关税威胁影响，美股大幅下跌，标普 500 指数当日收跌近 3%，本周累 跌 2.4%，芯片股领跌；欧洲斯托克 600 指数当日收跌 1.25%，本周累 跌 1.10%。全球避险情绪升温，黄金、美债和美元指数上涨，原油受 挫。 海外宏观周报 全球避险情绪升温 证券分析师 风险提示：特朗普政策风险超预期，美国滞胀程度超预期，全球金融市场波 动超预期，国际地缘局势超预期等。 宏 观 报 告 图表1 美国 10 月密歇根消费者信心指数小幅下降 图表2 美国密歇根大学 1 年通胀预期下降 资料来源： Wind, 平安证券研究所 资料来源： ...

Report Title Crude Oil Weekly Report Report Date August 22, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil remains under pressure from the large supply narrative in the medium to long term, but strong short - term data may alleviate market pessimism and potentially drive a limited - height rebound, especially considering potential changes in Russia - Ukraine talks. Additionally, pay attention to rumors about OPEC+'s future production policies [8]. - The core inflation being more stubborn and PPI rising significantly strengthen the view that the Fed's most - concerned core PCE data is unlikely to fall to 2% this year. The market's bet on a September rate cut has decreased, and the speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium is highly anticipated [25]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week, the large supply narrative in institutional reports strengthened the medium - to - long - term bearish view, and the US inflation data supported the expectation of stagflation. Short - term market focus was on the Trump - Putin meeting and potential cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, which could provide better short - selling opportunities. - This week, oil prices weakened slightly at the beginning, then rebounded due to the positive EIA weekly report and re - evaluation of the peace talks. Fundamentally, diesel cracking stabilized and rebounded, but the large supply background pressured the crude oil monthly spread. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks had progress but still had core differences. The Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium was awaited, with the prediction that Powell would not give a clear guidance [8]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - **Global Near - Month Spreads**: Western market spreads of WTI and Brent were weak, indicating a slowdown in immediate supply - demand. Eastern market spreads were also weak after the contract rollover, and domestic SC crude oil entered the contango structure [10][12]. - **US Cracking**: Global cracking was generally stable, but US cracking strengthened, consistent with the EIA weekly report. Despite decent downstream demand, the larger supply release led to a weaker near - term spread [13][15]. - **Crude Oil Fundamental Indicators**: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals was neutral, and the forward - looking indicator was also neutral. Both had briefly and slightly touched the negative range recently [17]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Global diesel cracking strengthened after an adjustment period. As the gasoline consumption peak ended and the diesel demand seasonal peak approached, diesel cracking would support the crude oil downstream [18][19]. - **EIA Weekly Report**: As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels. The EIA report implied strong demand, which could slightly correct the market's pessimistic expectations in the short term [21][23]. - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: There were core differences between Russia, Ukraine, and the US on territorial and security issues. If the talks fluctuated, the risk premium might return [24]. - **US Macroeconomic Data**: Core inflation and PPI trends strengthened the view that the core PCE would not fall to 2%. Market bets on a September rate cut decreased. The market was concerned about Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium [25]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: According to NOAA, this year's hurricane activity had a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it was calmer than last year. Currently, there were no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones were forecasted in the next 7 days [27][28]. 3.3 Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Provided historical trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including Brent, WTI, Oman, and SC [32]. - **Brent and WTI Positions**: Showed the net long positions of different participants in Brent and WTI futures and options [34][36]. - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Monthly Spread**: Presented the futures structure and monthly spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC [38][41]. - **Cross - Market Futures and Spot Spreads**: Displayed cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [44][47]. - **Saudi OSP**: The Saudi OSP for different grades of crude oil to various regions had different price adjustments in September compared to August [55]. - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: Showed the prices and cracking spreads of refined products in the futures and spot markets, including gasoline, diesel, etc. [59][67] 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: Included the supply of non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ and the total global supply, with historical data and forecasts [80][81]. - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply**: Analyzed the supply of non - OPEC countries (such as the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil) and OPEC countries, including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries [83][93]. - **Global Rig Count**: Showed the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally [95][96]. - **US Oil Rig and Refinery Shutdown**: Included data on US oil rigs, well completion, and shutdowns of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions [97][102]. - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: Included the demand of OECD, non - OECD, and the total global demand, with historical data and forecasts [103][104]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Showed the inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, as well as the EIA balance sheet and its changes [112][135]. - **OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage**: Provided data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage [144]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Not detailed in the provided content, only the section title was given [147].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, supported at $3200 per ounce, but require more positive factors for a new upward trend [1] - The marginal effects of previous positive factors such as central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand are diminishing, while the ongoing de-dollarization process and geopolitical crises provide some support against significant declines [1] - Future gold price increases largely depend on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with caution advised regarding the impact of U.S. Treasury issuance on dollar liquidity [1][6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth seen as a correction of the first quarter's distortions rather than a strengthening of growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, the slowest since Q4 2022, indicating weak domestic demand [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, raising concerns about the labor market [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - Tariff policies have contributed to inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Historical evidence suggests that stagflation environments are favorable for gold, as seen in the 1970s when gold prices surged from $43 per ounce in 1970 to $666 per ounce in 1980 [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of July employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with predictions of potential interest rate cuts [4] - Market expectations indicate a 94.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with significant probabilities for further cuts in October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2, reaching 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to high prices [5] - Investment demand for gold in Q2 reached 477.2 tons, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs increased by $3.2 billion in July, indicating strong investment interest [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could strain liquidity in the financial system [6] - Predictions suggest that the cash balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) will rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of liquidity issues [6] - The decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) may lead to pressures in the financing market as Treasury cash balances grow [6]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank strategists believe the U.S. economy is facing stagflation risks due to supply-side shocks, recommending short positions on 10-year U.S. Treasuries [1][7]. Economic Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Policies - The report indicates that tariff increases and tightened immigration policies will negatively impact the U.S. economy, raising inflation while weakening economic growth, but not leading to a recession [1][4]. - Tariffs are expected to raise core CPI inflation by approximately 0.5 percentage points in the coming months, significantly above market consensus [1][8]. - The tightening of immigration policies is projected to lower the non-farm employment growth equilibrium to a range of 50,000 to 100,000 jobs, although wage growth remains resilient [4][5]. Labor Market Analysis - Despite recent weak employment data, Deutsche Bank maintains that initial expectations have not materially changed, attributing fluctuations to seasonal factors [5]. - The unemployment claims data has not triggered the Sam Rule, and the turnover rate has remained stable over the past year, aligning with the interpretation of negative supply shocks [5]. Inflation Outlook - The structural changes in supply and demand are expected to push inflation higher while weakening economic growth, without leading to a recession [7]. - The current market pricing of the terminal rate is around 3%, with actual rates significantly below neutral levels, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation [9]. Investment Strategy - Deutsche Bank suggests a short position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with a target yield of 4.60% and a stop-loss at 4.05%, supported by technical and seasonal factors [10]. - For investors looking to hedge against spread risks, the recommendation includes going long on 10-year SOFR with a target of 4.10% and a stop-loss at 3.55% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, disagrees with JPMorgan CEO Dimon's perspective on the issue of stagflation in the United States [1] Group 1 - Hassett emphasizes that he does not share the same concerns regarding stagflation as expressed by Dimon [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have recently declined despite a general market uptrend, primarily due to improved risk appetite stemming from a temporary resolution in the US-China tariff conflict, which has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] Group 1: Short-term Factors - Gold prices are currently influenced more by market sentiment than by fundamental factors, with a significant increase in speculative trading following a 30% rise in gold prices earlier in 2025 [3][5] - The recent technical adjustment in gold prices is attributed to an overbought condition, with non-commercial net long positions reaching a historical peak of 382,000 contracts, 47% above the five-year average [1][3] - Geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are critical in determining gold price fluctuations, as they directly impact market risk sentiment [3][4] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - The potential for the US economy to enter a stagflation phase is a key factor for gold prices, as high inflation coupled with stagnant growth would make gold an attractive investment [4][5] - Historical precedents, such as the stagflation of the 1970s, illustrate how gold prices can surge dramatically during periods of economic instability, with prices rising from $35 to $850 per ounce between 1971 and 1980 [4][9] Group 3: Long-term Dynamics - The long-term value of gold is increasingly tied to the erosion of dollar credit, as the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 72.7% to 57.3% [9][11] - The demand for gold is expected to rise as central banks continue to diversify their reserves, with projections indicating a need for an additional 750 tons of gold annually over the next decade to offset the declining dollar share [11][12] - The ongoing questioning of US Treasury securities as a "safe asset" has led to a divergence between gold prices and bond yields, with gold's monetary attributes becoming more dominant [7][8] Group 4: Challenges to Dollar Credibility - The US faces significant challenges in restoring dollar credibility, including a rising national debt exceeding $36 trillion and a potential increase in interest payments that could strain fiscal resources [14] - The shift in global technological leadership from the US to China poses a threat to the dollar's dominance, particularly in key sectors like 5G and artificial intelligence [14] - The inherent contradictions in the dollar's supply and demand dynamics create a cycle that undermines its stability, complicating efforts to restore its status as a reliable currency [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in overseas investment in Japanese stocks and bonds, driven by factors such as the "Buffett effect" and a shift towards Japanese assets amid global economic uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Overseas Investment in Japan - In April, overseas investors net purchased over 8 trillion yen (approximately 57 billion USD) in Japanese stocks and bonds, marking the highest level since 2005 and more than three times the average for April over the past 20 years [3]. - The net purchase of medium- and long-term bonds reached 4.5371 trillion yen (315 million USD), the highest since July 2022 and the second highest historically [3]. - The net purchase of stocks and investment funds was 3.6759 trillion yen (255 million USD), a new high since April 2023 and the third highest historically [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Investment - Factors such as monetary policy, profit expectations, corporate governance, and the influence of Warren Buffett have been key to the continuous inflow of funds into Japan [4]. - Buffett's investment in five major Japanese trading companies has significantly boosted external confidence, with his total investment cost reaching 13.8 billion USD and the market value soaring to 23.5 billion USD, reflecting a nearly 70% unrealized gain [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Sentiment - The influx of funds into Japan is partly attributed to the aftermath of U.S. tariff policies under former President Trump, which have led to increased volatility in global markets and diminished confidence in U.S. assets [5][6]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is evident as central banks diversify their reserves, with Japan being a preferred destination due to its liquidity and stability [6].

Group 1 - Overseas investors net purchased over 8 trillion yen (approximately 570 billion USD) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, marking the highest level since 2005 and more than three times the average for April over the past 20 years [2][3] - The net purchase of medium- and long-term bonds reached 4.5371 trillion yen (315 billion USD), the highest since July 2022 and the second highest in history, while net purchases of stocks and investment funds were 3.6759 trillion yen (255 billion USD), also a new high for April 2023 and the third highest historically [2][3] - The surge in bond purchases is attributed to central bank reserves reallocating funds away from US assets, with a significant portion being Japanese government bonds (JGBs), viewed as a liquidity and stability choice during uncertain times [2][3] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the inflow of funds into Japan include monetary policy, profit expectations, corporate governance, and the influence of Warren Buffett, who has significantly increased his investments in Japanese companies [3][4] - Buffett's investment strategy emphasizes a long-term relationship with Japanese companies, indicating confidence in their historical performance and business practices [4] - The influx of capital into Japan is seen as a response to the volatility caused by US trade policies, with Japan being perceived as a safe haven for funds amid global economic uncertainty [4]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have led to a decline, with spot gold dropping to $3,215.79 per ounce on May 13, down over 6% from the peak of $3,431.54 on May 6 [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with major brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook reducing their prices to below 1,000 yuan per gram, reflecting a drop of over 30 yuan compared to previous highs [1] - Market analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to optimistic sentiments regarding the US-China trade agreement, which has reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, factors such as US tariff pressures, policy uncertainties, and geopolitical risks are expected to support gold prices despite recent declines [2] - The World Gold Council reported that gold jewelry demand in China fell to 125 tons in Q1, a 32% year-on-year decrease, while investment demand for gold bars and coins surged to 124 tons, marking a 48% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 12% year-on-year increase [2] - The overall spending on gold jewelry in China remained relatively stable at 84.1 billion yuan, although it experienced a 7% decline year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards smaller, more affordable gold products [2]