三 2025年07月16日 "很难" NGHAI SECURITIES 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 投资渠点 分低库存高周转的企业再次进行"抢进口"操作。 > 市场降息预期回落。美国6月CPI出炉后,美股收平,美债收益率上涨,美元指数上涨,黄 金下跌。强韧的6月通胀数据并不支持美联储在三季度进行降息，结合6月低迷的非农私营 就业数据,我们认为美国"滞胀"风险正在加剧。如果7月非农私营就业和通胀数据再次 出现背离,美联储可能不得不在"稳就业"和"去通胀"中进行抉择。8月杰克逊霍尔会议 上鲍威尔的发言同样值得关注，重心布局美联储独立性以及美联储新的货币政策框架。 > 风险提示:美国关税谈判不及预期导致通胀预期上行,美国经济和就业下行超预期。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 > 事件:当地时间7月15日,美国劳工局公布美国6月CPI数据。美国6月CPI同比2.7%，预期 2.7%,前值2.4%;环比0.3%,预期0.3%,前值0.1%。核心CPI同比2.9%,预期3.0%,前 值2.8%; 环比0.2%,预期0.3%,前 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed would likely have adopted a more accommodative monetary policy if not for the tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - The Fed has maintained its key lending rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December of the previous year, with potential for two rate cuts by the end of 2025 according to the dot plot [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low, with over 76% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged [1] Group 2 - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, calling for rate cuts and suggesting that Powell's actions have been detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump believes that lowering rates to 1% to 2% could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually, arguing that the current economic conditions do not warrant high rates [2] - Powell has reiterated his intention to remain in his position and has stated that he cannot be forced to resign by the President [2] Group 3 - Following the Fed's June rate decision, global market risk appetite has improved, but volatility is expected to remain high due to ongoing uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [3] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% chance of a rate cut and a 78% chance of a cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [3] - A potential rate cut to around 2% could have significant and far-reaching impacts on the global economy [3] Group 4 - Historical trends suggest that Fed rate cuts often exacerbate financial market volatility, as lower funding costs may lead to increased acquisition of undervalued assets globally [6] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate that expectations of rate cuts provide important support for non-yielding assets like gold, with COMEX gold prices nearing $3,350 per ounce [6]

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：我不认同摩根大通CEO戴蒙关于美国滞胀的观点。 ...

头图 | 视觉中国 作者 | 丁萍 出品 | 妙投APP 除此之外，短期内的超买状态也引发了技术性调整——根据CFTC数据显示，4月黄金非商业净多头 头寸达到了历史峰值38.2万手，较五年均值高出47%；另外，地缘冲突的缓和也是一个因素。 事实上，这已经不是黄金今年第一次出现回调。2025年一季度，COMEX黄金价格上涨了20%，一度 触及3509.9美元/盎司的历史高点，随后就开始了震荡下行，回撤幅度一度超过了11%。 问题来了，黄金究竟还要跌多久？会一直跌下去吗？ 中期交易美国滞胀 短期来看，黄金价格的走势已经脱离了基本面的影响，更多是情绪博弈的主导 。尤其是2025年内黄 金价格一度上涨了30%，严重激发了市场的投机情绪，也让金价很容易陷入"大涨大跌"的怪圈。 接下来，金价将对一系列因素变得更加敏感，尤其是贸易战与关税政策、地缘政治动荡、美联储的货 币政策及美国宏观数据，还有全球央行的黄金购买与实物需求等，都会在短期内引发剧烈波动。 例如，中美贸易摩擦的升温或缓和直接左右着市场的避险情绪。地缘冲突，如中东、印巴等地区的升 级，也会让黄金这个避险资产需求急剧增加，从而推动金价上涨；一旦局势缓和，金价则会迎 ...

2025.05. 15 本文字数：2214，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 日本官方本周公布的数据显示，海外投资者上月买入日本股票和债券的规模创下近20年新高。在"股 神"巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦近年来大举买入背景和避险情绪带动下，日元资产持续受到外界的广 泛关注。 日本资产受青睐 日本财务省5月12日发布的日本《对外及对内证券买卖契约等的状况》显示，海外投资者4月净买入 的日本股票和债券共计8万亿日元以上（约合570亿美元）。这是自2005年有可比数据以来最高水 平，相当于过去20年4月份平均值的三倍多。 从细分看，中长期债券的净买入为4万5371亿日元（315亿美元），是自2022年7月以来的最高水平， 达到历史第二高。股票和投资基金净买入3万6759亿日元（255亿美元），为2023年4月以来新高，也 是历史第三高。 交易员表示，债券激增可能来自央行储备，其需要将资金撤出美国资产。其中很大一部分购买的是日 本政府债券（JGBs），在不确定时期被视为一种流动性和稳定性的选择。 野村证券首席外汇策略师后藤雄二郎(Yujiro Goto)表示，长期债券购买规模"大大超过"了4月份的典 型规模。 ...

Group 1 - Overseas investors net purchased over 8 trillion yen (approximately 570 billion USD) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, marking the highest level since 2005 and more than three times the average for April over the past 20 years [2][3] - The net purchase of medium- and long-term bonds reached 4.5371 trillion yen (315 billion USD), the highest since July 2022 and the second highest in history, while net purchases of stocks and investment funds were 3.6759 trillion yen (255 billion USD), also a new high for April 2023 and the third highest historically [2][3] - The surge in bond purchases is attributed to central bank reserves reallocating funds away from US assets, with a significant portion being Japanese government bonds (JGBs), viewed as a liquidity and stability choice during uncertain times [2][3] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the inflow of funds into Japan include monetary policy, profit expectations, corporate governance, and the influence of Warren Buffett, who has significantly increased his investments in Japanese companies [3][4] - Buffett's investment strategy emphasizes a long-term relationship with Japanese companies, indicating confidence in their historical performance and business practices [4] - The influx of capital into Japan is seen as a response to the volatility caused by US trade policies, with Japan being perceived as a safe haven for funds amid global economic uncertainty [4]

Q&A 美国 4 月通胀数据 - 关税压力尚可，关注贸易谈判 20240514 摘要 • 四月美国 CPI 数据显示通胀存在温和迹象，能源分项环比增速上升，主要 受天然气和电力价格上涨驱动，抵消了部分油价下跌的影响。零售油价相 对稳定，但加工分销环节面临较大价格压力。 • 核心商品方面，四月份整体环比增速接近零，未显示出显著关税压力。但 与中国出口关系密切的娱乐品、体育用品、玩具等商品价格反弹明显，家 具及家用品环比增速扩大，表明对华关税已开始推升供给端压力。 • 核心服务方面，房租保持韧性，是核心服务通胀上升的主要原因，而医疗 保健外其他分项通胀走弱甚至负增长，如娱乐、机票、酒店价格延续下跌 趋势，表明美国经济韧性关键所在的服务部门和就业市场继续降温。 • 关税对通胀的传导尚不明显，但商家预期已受扰动并逐步调整价格。中美 贸易谈判走向将是影响传导进程的重要变量。目前综合税率水平接近大萧 条后贸易战峰值，美国滞胀风险仍存。 • 中美贸易谈判是未来值得关注的重要主线，对华依赖度高的商品品类如娱 乐品、体育用品、玩具等显示出显著涨幅，中国出口到美国较多的家具及 家用品也显示出环比增速扩大。 中美贸易谈判是未来值得 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market sentiment has improved, with major indices opening higher following constructive progress in the China-US trade talks [1][11] - In April, China's exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, despite a significant decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April turned positive, driven by rising food and travel prices, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market, stimulating domestic demand, and supporting the real estate market [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions to lower financing costs for enterprises [7] - The US Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate plans to change interest rates amid rising economic uncertainties [11]

Domestic Macro: Important Dynamics and Focus Points - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated that incremental policies will be introduced based on the situation, with potential for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - Attention is needed on whether relevant policies will be implemented, as well as the impact of significant overseas data releases and changes in US trade policies during the May Day holiday on domestic markets [1] Overseas Macro: Key Data and Policy Impact - The US continues to signal trade easing, with new trade policy signals being closely monitored for their market impact [1] - During the May Day holiday, the US will release GDP data for Europe and the US for Q1, along with April non-farm payroll and PMI data, which are critical as they represent the first monthly data following US tariff policies [1] - The potential cooling of the economy could either bolster optimistic rate cut expectations, enhancing global risk appetite, or raise concerns about US stagflation risks, putting pressure on risk assets [1] Stock Indices: Mixed Signals and Range-Bound Expectations - The A-share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points, driven by increased external demand pressure and the implementation of domestic policies [1] - The resilience of the index is supported by macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment, but there are concerns about insufficient domestic fundamentals and ongoing disturbances from US tariff policies [1] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations influenced by performance disclosures and the interplay of policy expectations, trade policies, and earnings reports during the period from late April to mid-May [1] Gold/Silver: Market Disturbances and Uncertainty in Trends - The easing of the US-China tariff conflict and potential agreements in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation have reduced risk aversion, leading to alternating rebounds in risk asset prices and high adjustment risks for precious metals [1] - However, enhanced expectations for US rate cuts and the continued low levels of the US dollar index and real yields on US Treasuries provide some support for precious metals [1] - The upcoming release of key US economic data during the May Day holiday will be crucial, as it could influence rate cut expectations and subsequently impact gold prices, with potential for fluctuations based on market sentiment regarding US stagflation risks [1]

兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.29 品种基本面分析及行情研判： 商品期货方面：黄金延续多头思路，焦煤、多晶硅价格承压。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 1.二季度美国滞胀风险上升，沪金 AU2506 前多持有； | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 节前资金表现谨慎 | | 投资咨询部 张舒绮 从业资格： | 联系人：房紫薇 021-80220135 | | | 周一 A 股小幅调整，银行股走势偏强，沪深两市成交额下降至 | | | | | | 1.08（前值为 1.14）万亿元。从行业来看，银行、钢铁、家电行业 | | | | | | 小幅收涨，房地产、综合板块跌幅居前。 | | | | | | 期货市场随现货指数偏弱运行，IH 小幅收涨 0.06%，IF、IC 和 | | | | | | IM 分别收跌-0.19%、-0.52%和-0.97%。基差走势分化，IC、IM | | | | | 股指 | 基差小幅修复，IF、IH 基差偏弱运行。 | 震荡偏强 | F3037345 | 从业 ...