原油周报 美国基本面数据坚韧，关注俄乌和平进程进展 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号： Z0016296 2025年8月22日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 本周主要观点： 上周周报观点：机构报告的大供应叙事加强了我们维持中长期偏空观点的信心，而美国通胀数据也支 撑了我们对于美国滞胀的预期。不过短期市场将更关注特普会，美湾潜在气旋如果顺利形成也将短线 推升油价，从而带来更好的做空机会。 本周走势分析：周初油价小幅走弱，尽管特普会、特泽会较为顺利，但由于市场之前已经大幅计价乐 观情绪，因此进一步跌幅不大。后半周由于EIA周报利多以及市场重新衡量和谈进展，油价略有反弹。 • 基本面：柴油裂解企稳反弹，终端消费坚韧，但大供应背景仍然打压原油月差（2.1-2.5） • 俄乌和谈：虽有进展，但仍有核心分歧，若出现反复则风险溢价将回归（2.6） • 美联储：关注杰克逊霍尔年会鲍威尔发言，我们预计不会给出明确指引（2.7） • 周度观点：原油 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, supported at $3200 per ounce, but require more positive factors for a new upward trend [1] - The marginal effects of previous positive factors such as central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand are diminishing, while the ongoing de-dollarization process and geopolitical crises provide some support against significant declines [1] - Future gold price increases largely depend on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with caution advised regarding the impact of U.S. Treasury issuance on dollar liquidity [1][6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth seen as a correction of the first quarter's distortions rather than a strengthening of growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, the slowest since Q4 2022, indicating weak domestic demand [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, raising concerns about the labor market [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - Tariff policies have contributed to inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Historical evidence suggests that stagflation environments are favorable for gold, as seen in the 1970s when gold prices surged from $43 per ounce in 1970 to $666 per ounce in 1980 [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of July employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with predictions of potential interest rate cuts [4] - Market expectations indicate a 94.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with significant probabilities for further cuts in October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2, reaching 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to high prices [5] - Investment demand for gold in Q2 reached 477.2 tons, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs increased by $3.2 billion in July, indicating strong investment interest [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could strain liquidity in the financial system [6] - Predictions suggest that the cash balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) will rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of liquidity issues [6] - The decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) may lead to pressures in the financing market as Treasury cash balances grow [6]

德意志银行策略师团队认为，美国经济正面临供给侧冲击带来的滞胀风险，建议做空十年期美国国债。 8月12日，据追风交易台消息，德意志银行在最新研报中指出，关税上调和移民政策收紧将对美国经济构成负面供给冲击，推高通胀的同时削弱经济增 长，但不会导致经济衰退。 该行预计，核心CPI通胀在未来几个月可能因关税影响而同比上升约0.5个百分点，显著高于市场共识和当前定价。 与此同时，德银强调，市场当前定价的终端利率约为3%，考虑到2%通胀目标实际利率仅为1%，已处于近年来区间底部。该行认为，从纯粹经济角度看， 政策利率大幅低于中性水平的理由相对薄弱。 德银分析师Francis Yared等人在报告中指出，即使美联储因政治压力而更激进降息，也可能导致收益率曲线扭曲陡峭化，推高长端利率。 供给冲击主导经济前景 德银分析认为，关税政策对美国经济的影响类似于增值税上调加负面供给冲击的组合。 虽然关税收入将用于减税，但由于关税更多冲击高消费倾向的低收入家庭，而减税主要惠及低消费倾向的高收入群体，整体需求仍将受到温和负面影响。 移民政策收紧进一步加剧了劳动力市场的供给冲击。德银经济学家认为，这将导致非农就业增长的平衡点降至5万-10万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, disagrees with JPMorgan CEO Dimon's perspective on the issue of stagflation in the United States [1] Group 1 - Hassett emphasizes that he does not share the same concerns regarding stagflation as expressed by Dimon [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have recently declined despite a general market uptrend, primarily due to improved risk appetite stemming from a temporary resolution in the US-China tariff conflict, which has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] Group 1: Short-term Factors - Gold prices are currently influenced more by market sentiment than by fundamental factors, with a significant increase in speculative trading following a 30% rise in gold prices earlier in 2025 [3][5] - The recent technical adjustment in gold prices is attributed to an overbought condition, with non-commercial net long positions reaching a historical peak of 382,000 contracts, 47% above the five-year average [1][3] - Geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are critical in determining gold price fluctuations, as they directly impact market risk sentiment [3][4] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - The potential for the US economy to enter a stagflation phase is a key factor for gold prices, as high inflation coupled with stagnant growth would make gold an attractive investment [4][5] - Historical precedents, such as the stagflation of the 1970s, illustrate how gold prices can surge dramatically during periods of economic instability, with prices rising from $35 to $850 per ounce between 1971 and 1980 [4][9] Group 3: Long-term Dynamics - The long-term value of gold is increasingly tied to the erosion of dollar credit, as the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 72.7% to 57.3% [9][11] - The demand for gold is expected to rise as central banks continue to diversify their reserves, with projections indicating a need for an additional 750 tons of gold annually over the next decade to offset the declining dollar share [11][12] - The ongoing questioning of US Treasury securities as a "safe asset" has led to a divergence between gold prices and bond yields, with gold's monetary attributes becoming more dominant [7][8] Group 4: Challenges to Dollar Credibility - The US faces significant challenges in restoring dollar credibility, including a rising national debt exceeding $36 trillion and a potential increase in interest payments that could strain fiscal resources [14] - The shift in global technological leadership from the US to China poses a threat to the dollar's dominance, particularly in key sectors like 5G and artificial intelligence [14] - The inherent contradictions in the dollar's supply and demand dynamics create a cycle that undermines its stability, complicating efforts to restore its status as a reliable currency [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in overseas investment in Japanese stocks and bonds, driven by factors such as the "Buffett effect" and a shift towards Japanese assets amid global economic uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Overseas Investment in Japan - In April, overseas investors net purchased over 8 trillion yen (approximately 57 billion USD) in Japanese stocks and bonds, marking the highest level since 2005 and more than three times the average for April over the past 20 years [3]. - The net purchase of medium- and long-term bonds reached 4.5371 trillion yen (315 million USD), the highest since July 2022 and the second highest historically [3]. - The net purchase of stocks and investment funds was 3.6759 trillion yen (255 million USD), a new high since April 2023 and the third highest historically [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Investment - Factors such as monetary policy, profit expectations, corporate governance, and the influence of Warren Buffett have been key to the continuous inflow of funds into Japan [4]. - Buffett's investment in five major Japanese trading companies has significantly boosted external confidence, with his total investment cost reaching 13.8 billion USD and the market value soaring to 23.5 billion USD, reflecting a nearly 70% unrealized gain [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Sentiment - The influx of funds into Japan is partly attributed to the aftermath of U.S. tariff policies under former President Trump, which have led to increased volatility in global markets and diminished confidence in U.S. assets [5][6]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is evident as central banks diversify their reserves, with Japan being a preferred destination due to its liquidity and stability [6].

Group 1 - Overseas investors net purchased over 8 trillion yen (approximately 570 billion USD) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, marking the highest level since 2005 and more than three times the average for April over the past 20 years [2][3] - The net purchase of medium- and long-term bonds reached 4.5371 trillion yen (315 billion USD), the highest since July 2022 and the second highest in history, while net purchases of stocks and investment funds were 3.6759 trillion yen (255 billion USD), also a new high for April 2023 and the third highest historically [2][3] - The surge in bond purchases is attributed to central bank reserves reallocating funds away from US assets, with a significant portion being Japanese government bonds (JGBs), viewed as a liquidity and stability choice during uncertain times [2][3] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the inflow of funds into Japan include monetary policy, profit expectations, corporate governance, and the influence of Warren Buffett, who has significantly increased his investments in Japanese companies [3][4] - Buffett's investment strategy emphasizes a long-term relationship with Japanese companies, indicating confidence in their historical performance and business practices [4] - The influx of capital into Japan is seen as a response to the volatility caused by US trade policies, with Japan being perceived as a safe haven for funds amid global economic uncertainty [4]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普的两个目标均难实现 >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄，制造业回流，我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先，关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收 窄。从理论来看，提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差（扩大顺差）。根据勒纳对称定理，对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回 流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高，而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量，还是就业意愿来看，美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。 美国制造业成本高，也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响，美国衰退风险加大。除了"滞胀"风险，特朗普的减税、削减支 出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭，对低收入人群损害更大，加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上，从经济视角来看，美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问 题，但内部分配问题很严重。 资料来源：US Census Bureau，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.04.23 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 从汇率、利 ...

中金研究 美国宣布加征关税之后，出现了股债汇"三杀"的罕见局面。除了交易因素以外，从基本面上来讲，市场在定价"美国的滞胀"以及一个"没那么差的欧元 区"。与美国罕见的股债汇"三杀"对应的是人民币汇率韧性。人民币汇率的韧性为松货币增加了空间。除了传统的松货币工具以外，干预风险溢价是更 值得关注的政策选择，央行的结构性工具目前已经在稳定资本市场上有所尝试。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 美国宣布加征关税之后，出现了股债汇"三杀"的罕见局面。除了交易因素以外，从基本面上来讲，市场在定价"美国的滞胀"以及一个"没那么差的欧元 区"。 从1971年1月到现在，美国股债汇同时出现明显下跌[1]的月份只有6个，如果4月美股、美债、美元不再大幅变化，2025年的4月将是1971年以来第7 个单月美国股债汇都出现明显下跌的月份。一般来说，美股下跌、美债上涨、美元上涨是投资者更适应的资产变化组合。但如果美国面临的是"滞胀"风 险，同时其他经济可以凭借"非美国"的力量支撑基本面，那么就有可能出现美国股债汇三杀的局面。2022年12月的美国股债汇三杀可以帮助我们理解这一 轮调整的逻辑。 与美国罕见的股债汇"三杀"对应的是 ...