Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence (AI) is considered the most exciting technological transformation of this generation, with semiconductor companies leading this wave. The market for AI accelerators is expected to grow significantly, with NVIDIA and AMD being optimistic about their developments in this field [1][19]. Semiconductor Industry Overview - The semiconductor demand is experiencing a comprehensive surge, particularly in digital semiconductors for AI, while automotive and industrial semiconductors are gradually rebounding [8]. - The global semiconductor trade shows strong revenue growth driven by AI, with a projected 23% increase in sales by April 2025 [9]. AI Semiconductor Market - AI accelerators, such as NVIDIA's GPUs, are expected to account for 20% of semiconductor revenue in 2024, with this proportion increasing in 2025 despite sales restrictions in China [19][16]. - NVIDIA's recent performance indicators are impressive, with production capacity expanding to meet strong AI demand [1]. Mixed Signal and Analog Semiconductor Market - The severe cyclical downturn in the mixed signal semiconductor sector is nearing its end, with inventory levels dropping to a point where reordering is necessary [2]. - The median valuation of mixed signal chip manufacturers is estimated to be undervalued by 13%, while digital chip stocks are undervalued by 3% [5]. Automotive Semiconductor Market - Automotive semiconductors are projected to account for 12% of the chip industry revenue in 2024, with an increasing chip content per vehicle, especially in electric vehicles [48][52]. - The growth in the electric vehicle market in China is significant, with a 25% increase in sales expected in 2024 [52]. Industrial Semiconductor Market - Industrial semiconductor revenue is expected to recover after experiencing a cyclical low, despite concerns over tariffs [55]. - The long-term trend indicates an increase in chip content per device across various industrial applications [55]. Personal Computer and Gaming Semiconductor Market - AMD is gaining market share in the high-end personal computer processor segment, while NVIDIA's gaming GPU revenue is on the rise [32][26]. - The personal computer market is recovering, but growth is closely tied to the overall market performance [29]. Wireless Semiconductor Market - The wireless semiconductor sector is recovering from overordering during the pandemic, with a projected 28% market share in 2024 [35]. - The growth of wireless semiconductors is expected to be modest, influenced by the performance of entry-level smartphones [35]. Financial Performance and Margins - NVIDIA's gross margin remains strong at around 61%, with expectations to maintain it near 70% as production ramps up [42]. - AMD's gross margin is improving, but restrictions on the Chinese market may lower it to around 40% [42]. Inventory Levels and Market Dynamics - Semiconductor inventory levels are currently high but are expected to normalize in the next upcycle [64]. - The semiconductor industry is navigating through a period of inventory adjustment, with potential impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [64].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down nearly 1%, Nasdaq down 0.92%, and S&P 500 down about 0.8%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Company Performance - Japanese and Korean companies listed in the U.S. faced significant stock price drops, with Nissan down over 7%, Toyota down nearly 4%, SK Telecom down over 7%, and LG Display down more than 8%. This decline is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with Japan and Korea facing a 25% tariff [3] - Tesla's stock fell 6.79%, influenced by Elon Musk's political activities, which raised investor concerns about his focus shifting away from technology and market growth [3] - In contrast, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.59%, with Bilibili up over 7% and Baidu nearly 4%, while Xpeng Motors fell nearly 5% and Alibaba down over 2%, indicating a selective investment approach within Chinese stocks [3] Currency and Commodity Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 97.48, as investors sought safety in the dollar amid stock market declines, strengthening against major currencies like the euro and pound [4] - Goldman Sachs suggested that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates as early as September, which could positively impact technology and growth stocks [4] - Oil prices increased despite OPEC+ announcing production increases, with Brent crude rising 1.87% and West Texas Intermediate crude up 1.39%, indicating a tighter supply in the physical market [4] - Gold prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, reflecting investor behavior in response to geopolitical and policy uncertainties [4] Key Factors Influencing the Market - The market volatility is largely driven by "policy" and "expectations," with ongoing concerns about tariff policies, Elon Musk's actions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction being critical factors to monitor for their potential impact on company fundamentals and industry trends [5]

特朗普表示，美国关税的8月1日生效日期已经确定，但如果各国提出建议，对延期持开放态度。当被问及最后期限是否确定时，特朗普说：“我会说是确定的，但不是100%确定。如果他们打电话来说想换一种方式，我们会对此持开放态度。”外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普随后陆续公布了美国对另外12个国家的关税税率。从8月1日起，美国将对哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚、突尼斯输美产品征收25%关税，将对南非和波黑征30％、印尼征32%、孟加拉国和塞尔维亚征35%、泰国和柬埔寨征36%、老挝和缅甸征40％关税。特朗普对以上14个国家的信函中，都强调： ...

日本首相石破茂：经过与美国的谈判，我们成功避免了关税升至30%至35%的情况。美国已提议继续进行会谈，直至新的8月1日截止日期。到目前为止，我们无法就协议达成一致，因为我们与美国进行了艰难的谈判，日本不应该轻易让步。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普表示将对日本和韩国分别征收25%的关税。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

韩国方面表示，将密切关注市场和经济对关税动态的影响。 ...

张尧浠：降息再呼央行连增、黄金调整洗盘预来年牛市再起 上交易日周一(7月7日)：国际黄金触底回升T型收涨，未能稳健跌破60日均线支撑，这使得后市仍有再度走强冲击3400美元关口的预期，但短期阻力需关 注3360美元，突破持稳至此上方，才能进一步看涨，否则仍将维持震荡调整。 影响上，先是受到关税特朗普向14国发出关税信函，并延长关税暂缓期，打压金价先行走低录得日内低点，之后受到支持买盘，以及美联储主席热门人选 公开呼吁降息，加上中国央行连续第8个月增持黄金，市场又现阶段性抄底买盘，支撑金价持续反弹最终T型收阳。 展望今日周二(7月8日)：国际黄金开盘再度短暂走强后回撤运行，仍处于日图中轨线阻力下方，使得金价仍有震荡调整或走低的风险，另外，本周美元指 数开盘表现走强，也对金价多头造成限制。 不过，美元指数日图走势仍处于回落趋势压力中，周图也受到5-10周均线阻力，月图也依然维持在看空前景当中，整体未有明显的转强倾向，而在前景 上，仍支撑金价有再度看涨攀升的预期。 日内将可关注美国6月NFIB小型企业信心指数、美国6月纽约联储1年通胀预期，市场预期偏向利好金价，故此关注日内回落力度，仍可寻支撑看涨反弹， 走势可参考 ...

特朗普随后陆续公布了美国对另外12个国家的关税税率。从8月1日起，美国将对哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚、突尼斯输美产品征收25%关税，将对南非和波黑征30％、印尼征32%、孟加拉国和塞尔维亚征35%、泰国和柬埔寨征36%、老挝和缅甸征40％关税。特朗普对以上14个国家的信函中，都强调：1.任何试图通过第三国转运来规避新关税的做法，将被征以更高的关税。2.若这些国家的公司选择在美国境内建厂或生产产品，则无需缴纳此项关税。3.若这些国家决定提高对美关税，则美国将在现有新关税税率的基础上追加同等幅度关税。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普表示将对日本和韩国分别征收25%的关税。 ...

Group 1 - Trump's latest tariff plan has triggered a sell-off in U.S. stocks and bonds, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dropping nearly 1% [1] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases, with a recovery in pace [1] - Tesla's stock plummeted by 7.6% amid declining sales, while Elon Musk made political comments regarding George Soros, calling him a puppet [1] Group 2 - CoreWeave has made a significant move in the AI infrastructure space by acquiring Core Scientific for $9 billion [1] - OpenAI is facing high costs for talent retention, with equity compensation accounting for 119% of its revenue [1] - Goldman Sachs has brought forward its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut by three months, now anticipating it in September, with a terminal rate of 3%-3.25% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The egg futures price is falling. Due to high inventory of laying hens, increased supply of small - sized eggs, and weak demand in summer, the egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, but the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to rise in the long - term, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels. Iron ore has a high over - valuation risk, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended. Glass market needs real estate stimulus or major policies, and a shock approach is appropriate. Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term, and short - selling with a light position is advised when it reaches the previous high pressure area [7][11][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Egg Futures - Supply: High inventory of laying hens, increasing number of newly - laid hens, and increased supply of small - sized eggs lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is hard to relieve soon [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption. School holidays reduce canteen purchases, and overall demand is weak and hard to change in the short - term. However, low prices may stimulate supermarket promotions and trader restocking [3]. - Price Outlook: Affected by the leap June, the egg price will remain low in the first half of July. The low - price area has delivery and cold - storage stocking, limiting the decline. Observe the strong support area of 3370 - 3350 for the main egg futures contract [3]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the positive territory above 3470 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8][7]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. But the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels [12][11]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply is rising month - on - month, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The weak reality increases the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, it shows a trend of rising and then falling, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [16][15]. Glass - Supply and Demand: There is no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power, so demand is not continuously increasing. It needs real estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it has been adjusting at a high level for three days, and a shock approach is appropriate [20][19]. Soybean Oil - Market Trend: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term. But the current supply - demand is not tight, and it will see seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium - term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is advised [23].