旅游餐饮板块30日强势上扬，截至发稿，凯撒旅业、西藏旅游涨停，天府文旅涨超4%，岭南控股涨逾 2%。 中银证券指出，入境免签政策发力下，入境游增长明显，据国家移民管理局统计，2025年上半年，全国 移民管理机构累计查验出入境人员3.33亿人次，同比上升15.8%。此外，暑期文旅旺季已至，据国铁集 团数据，7月1日至8月31日，全国铁路预计发送旅客9.53亿人次，同比增长5.8%，旅游出行市场有望保 持高景气运行，建议关注后续业绩增长确定性强的出行链及产业相关公司。 值得注意的是，西藏旅游已连续8个交易日涨停。公司29日晚间提示，鉴于近日公司股价波动幅度较 大，可能存在市场情绪过热、非理性炒作，以及短期上涨过快可能出现的下跌风险，敬请广大投资者审 慎决策，理性投资。公司未发现需要澄清的媒体报道或市场传闻，公司未与雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程相 关单位开展业务合作。 消息面上，公安部副部长、国家移民管理局局长王志忠7月30日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规 划"系列主题新闻发布会上介绍，"十四五"期间，各类免签政策积极推进优化，我国对75个国家实行单 方面免签或全面互免签证；过境免签国家扩展到55个，入境口岸增加 ...

Core Insights - The inbound tourism in China is expected to reach new heights in the second half of the year, driven by a significant increase in foreign visitors and the implementation of visa-free policies [1][6] Inbound Tourism Growth - In the first half of the year, the number of foreign visitors entering and exiting China reached 38.05 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.2% [1] - Visa-free entry for foreign visitors has surged, with 13.64 million entering without a visa, accounting for 71.2% of all inbound tourists, marking a 53.9% increase year-on-year [1] - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, and Xi'an have become popular destinations, with significant increases in foreign tourist hotel bookings, exceeding 130% [1] Visa-Free Policies - As of June 2025, China has implemented unilateral visa-free policies for 47 countries and extended transit visa-free stays to 240 hours for 55 countries, enhancing the convenience for foreign visitors [3] - The number of foreign visitors to China is projected to reach 32.54 million in 2024, with 20.11 million expected to enter visa-free, reflecting growth rates of 80.7% and 112.3% respectively [3] Consumer Behavior and Spending - The introduction of "immediate refund" policies for outbound tax refunds has lowered shopping costs for foreign tourists, leading to increased consumer enthusiasm [7] - In 2024, inbound tourist spending is expected to account for approximately 0.5% of China's GDP, indicating significant growth potential compared to 1% to 3% in other major countries [7] - The first month of optimized tax refund policies saw a 116% year-on-year increase in the number of tax refund applications, indicating a positive trend in attracting foreign shoppers [7] Cultural Experience and Product Offerings - Cultural experience products have emerged as a new highlight in inbound tourism, with bookings for immersive activities like intangible cultural heritage workshops and folk performances surging by 300% [8] - Specific cultural experiences, such as Sichuan opera face-changing and Beijing opera performances, have seen nearly tenfold growth in bookings on overseas platforms [8] Market Opportunities for Businesses - The inbound tourism market in China presents a trillion-yuan growth opportunity, with favorable policies and market recovery creating significant development prospects for tourism enterprises [9] - Companies are encouraged to analyze market trends and consumer demands to maintain growth momentum in inbound tourism, focusing on differentiated and diverse tourism services [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the outbound group travel industry, with ongoing business recovery and an expanding layout [3][14]. - The domestic and outbound/inbound tourism industries are experiencing steady growth, with significant recovery following unconventional cycles [10][34]. - The company benefits from a robust supply chain, strong cash reserves, and a comprehensive online and offline channel strategy [3][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The outbound tourism penetration rate in China has been increasing, reaching 11.0% in 2019, but still lags behind developed countries like the US and South Korea [2]. - The outbound tourism market is characterized by a predominance of young, highly educated travelers who prefer personalized and customized experiences [2][10]. - The inbound tourism sector is supported by favorable policies and increased payment facilitation measures, enhancing the willingness of foreign tourists to visit China [1][10]. Company Positioning - The company operates in the midstream of the outbound tourism industry, primarily benefiting from industry growth and its leading market position [2][10]. - The company has maintained its core team and supply chain, enabling a swift recovery post-pandemic [3][10]. - The company has a strong brand value and resource integration capability, with plans to expand its retail business through a franchise model [3][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 75.00 billion, CNY 87.35 billion, and CNY 103.39 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 1.16 billion, CNY 1.55 billion, and CNY 1.94 billion for the same years, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [3][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 67.2X, 50.4X, and 40.2X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][8].

Group 1 - The inbound tourism market in China, particularly in Shanghai, has seen significant growth, with over 4.158 million inbound visitors in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [1] - The increase in foreign visitors, approximately 3.121 million, represents a 53.3% growth compared to the previous year, driven by enhanced visa policies and improved travel services [1][2] - The extension of the transit visa-free stay from 144 hours to 240 hours has made Shanghai a popular weekend destination for tourists from countries like South Korea and Japan [2] Group 2 - The popularity of Shanghai's landmarks, such as the Bund and Xintiandi, has surged among foreign tourists, with a notable increase in visitors from South Korea (130.7%), Thailand (140%), and Japan (58.5%) in the first half of the year [2] - Other cities like Chengdu, Hainan, and Chongqing have also experienced significant growth in inbound tourism, with Chengdu reporting over 790,000 foreign visitors, a 58.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The integration of cultural and ecological experiences in tourism offerings is attracting foreign visitors, with a focus on unique Chinese cultural experiences and natural landscapes [3] Group 3 - The collaboration among provinces in Southwest China to promote tourism through the 240-hour visa-free policy has led to the creation of curated travel itineraries aimed at international tourists [3] - The shift in foreign tourists' interests towards deeper cultural, ecological, and technological experiences in China is evident, indicating a trend towards more immersive travel [3] - To maintain the momentum of inbound tourism, there is a need for improvements in digital service systems, standardized service quality, and targeted international marketing strategies [3]

Group 1 - The inbound tourism market in China is experiencing strong growth, with a 30.2% year-on-year increase in the number of foreign visitors in the first half of 2025, reaching 38.05 million [1] - The number of visa-free foreign visitors has significantly increased, accounting for 71.2% of total inbound tourists, with a 53.9% year-on-year rise [1] - Experts predict that the number of inbound tourists in the first three quarters of this year may exceed the total for the entire year of 2019 [1] Group 2 - Data from Beijing and Shanghai border inspection stations show a substantial increase in foreign visitors, with Beijing seeing 1.49 million arrivals and Shanghai reporting nearly 2.6 million, representing growth rates of 100% and 44.8% respectively [2] - The implementation of visa-free policies has been a key factor in the surge of inbound tourism, with the number of countries eligible for the 240-hour transit visa exemption increasing to 55 [2] - The recovery of inbound tourism is reflected in the projected 132 million inbound visitors and $94.2 billion in spending for 2024, which are 97.2% and 93.5% of 2019 levels respectively [2] Group 3 - To sustain the growth of inbound tourism, cities need to offer differentiated services and improve marketing strategies, including enhancing service quality and providing multilingual support [3] - Companies are actively expanding their inbound tourism services, with Ctrip focusing on inbound group travel and Qunar launching an English version of its platform for international users [3] - There is a growing interest among inbound tourists in cultural experiences, leading to opportunities for products that integrate traditional culture and local customs, such as immersive cultural experiences and themed activities [3]

Group 1 - Ctrip is expanding its inbound group travel services as part of its strategy to enhance its presence in the inbound tourism market [1] - Qunar has launched an English version of its website to provide users with hotel, flight, train, and vacation product booking services in English [1] - The growth in inbound tourism is supported by significant increases in bookings and revenue, with Shanghai border inspection reporting nearly 2.6 million inbound foreign travelers in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 44.8% [1]

Core Insights - The National Immigration Administration reported significant growth in inbound travel, with 13.64 million visa-free foreign visitors in the first half of the year, accounting for 71.2% of total inbound visitors, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% [1][4]. Policy Developments - The administration has been actively promoting institutional openness in immigration management, enhancing visa-free arrangements, and has added Indonesia to the list of countries eligible for a 240-hour visa-free transit policy, increasing the total to 55 countries [3]. - New regional visa-free policies have been implemented for ASEAN tourist groups entering Yunnan's Xishuangbanna, allowing for visa-free stays of up to 6 days [3]. - Comprehensive visa exemption agreements have been signed with Uzbekistan, Malaysia, and Azerbaijan, while unilateral visa exemptions have been granted to nine countries including Brazil and Saudi Arabia [3]. Industry Response - Tourism companies are capitalizing on the rising trend of inbound tourism by enhancing product offerings, such as half-day tours and deep-dive experiences [6]. - China Tourism Group and Shenzhou Holiday are developing new inbound tourism products tailored to the needs of international travelers, including popular routes and unique experiences in western China [6]. - The demand for inbound travel inquiries has increased, with shorter inquiry cycles, prompting travel agencies to enhance their resource reserves to cater to specific dietary needs of tourists from countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia [6].

Core Points - The article discusses the expansion of China's visa-free travel policy, which now includes Azerbaijan, allowing citizens of both countries to stay for up to 30 days without a visa [2][3] - The growth of China's visa-free travel network has reached 47 countries for unilateral visa exemptions and 55 for transit exemptions, enhancing global travel trends [3][4] - The influx of foreign tourists to China is expected to rise significantly, with an estimated 20.12 million visitors projected for 2024, marking a 112.3% increase [4] Group 1: Visa Policy Expansion - The new visa exemption agreement between China and Azerbaijan allows for a single stay of up to 30 days and a cumulative stay of 90 days within 180 days [2] - The expansion of China's visa-free travel network reflects a broader trend of increasing openness and accessibility for international travelers [3] Group 2: Tourism Growth and Trends - The summer tourism season is seeing a resurgence, with family and educational travel becoming popular options among foreign visitors [4][5] - Various cities in China are launching unique cultural and tourism projects to enhance the experience for foreign tourists, showcasing local history and culture [5][6] Group 3: Shopping and Consumer Experience - The phrase "bring an empty suitcase to China" has gained popularity, indicating a growing trend of foreign tourists coming to China for shopping [6] - Recent policy changes have made tax refunds for foreign shoppers more accessible, further encouraging spending [6] Group 4: Enhanced Visitor Services - Improvements in visitor services, such as bilingual signage and more foreign currency exchange points, are enhancing the overall experience for foreign tourists [7] - The introduction of detailed service measures, such as indicating food spice levels and allergens in restaurants, reflects China's commitment to providing a welcoming environment for international visitors [7]

Core Insights - The inbound tourism market in China is experiencing significant growth due to the expansion of visa-free policies, with 47 countries eligible for unilateral visa exemption and 55 countries for 240-hour transit visa exemption [1][3] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Nanjing are actively enhancing their tourism offerings to attract foreign visitors, with various cultural and educational travel programs being introduced [2][5] Group 1: Policy Impact - The continuous optimization of visa-free policies has greatly facilitated foreign entry into China, with Beijing seeing a 36.5% year-on-year increase in inbound foreign visitors, totaling over 2.9 million in the first half of the year [1] - Shanghai's border inspection agency reported a 44.8% increase in foreign travelers, with over 2.6 million checked in the first half of the year, and more than 1.4 million utilizing visa-free policies [3] Group 2: Tourism Initiatives - Beijing has launched a "Summer Study Tour Beijing" initiative with 10 themed study routes, targeting both domestic and international students and families [2] - Shanghai is promoting a "2025 Shanghai Summer" international consumption season, featuring various cultural and tourism activities to enhance the experience for foreign tourists [4] Group 3: Regional Highlights - Nanjing has seen a 60.55% share of foreign visitors utilizing visa-free entry, with a focus on enhancing the immersive travel experience through bilingual services and smart itinerary customization [5] - Chengdu and Xi'an have emerged as popular destinations for foreign tourists, with Chengdu reporting a 61.4% increase in inbound visitors and Xi'an seeing a 64% year-on-year growth in outbound and inbound traffic [6][7]

Core Insights - The inbound tourism market in China has shown significant growth in the first half of 2025, with major port cities like Shanghai leading the way in visitor numbers and tax refund sales [1][4][5] Inbound Tourism Growth - Shanghai received 4.248 million inbound tourists from January to June 2025, marking a 38.5% year-on-year increase, with tax refund sales growing by 85% [1][4] - Hainan, Hunan, and Chongqing also reported substantial growth in inbound tourism, with Hainan seeing a 48% increase in foreign visitors [5][4] Visa Policies and Visitor Preferences - The increase in inbound tourists is largely attributed to visa-free policies and the appeal of Chinese cuisine, with 47 countries eligible for unilateral visa exemptions and 55 for 240-hour transit visa exemptions as of June 30 [3][4] - A significant portion of inbound tourists, particularly from Europe and East Asia, cited visa facilitation and food as primary reasons for their visits [3][4] Economic Impact of Events and International IP - Major international events and conferences held in China have contributed to the resurgence of inbound tourism, with events like the F1 China Grand Prix attracting over 220,000 attendees [7] - The overall inbound tourism is recovering to 70%-80% of pre-pandemic levels, with Southeast Asian visitors increasing rapidly [7] Accommodation and Shopping Trends - Hotel chains like Huazhu reported a 72% increase in foreign guests in the first half of 2025, with Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou being the top destinations [8] - Shopping has also seen a boost, with Shanghai implementing upgraded tax refund measures to enhance the shopping experience for inbound tourists [10] Future Prospects and Service Enhancements - The inbound tourism market is expected to see an additional growth opportunity of $100 billion to $200 billion, necessitating improvements in multilingual services and the use of AI tools to enhance efficiency [11]