Core Viewpoint - The container shipping index (European line) futures have rebounded significantly since May, with the main contract price increasing by over 68% from the low point at the end of April, indicating a shift from previous downward trends [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rebound in the container shipping index is driven by improved macroeconomic expectations, a recovery in import and export trade volumes on the US line, and the onset of the peak shipping season for container shipments on European and American routes [2][3]. - The North American market accounts for approximately 16% of global container shipping trade volume, with a significant portion of imports coming from Asia and Europe, highlighting the importance of international trade dynamics on the shipping market [3]. - Recent announcements from shipping companies to raise freight rates on the US line have positively impacted the European line freight rates, contributing to market optimism [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The shipping market is experiencing improvements on both the supply and demand sides, with a potential recovery in shipping volumes on the US line and a reallocation of shipping capacity easing pressure on the European line [6]. - There is an increase in demand driven by the release of previously suppressed orders and a surge in supply chain replenishment needs in the US, which is expected to boost shipping volumes [6]. - The traditional seasonal patterns indicate that European industrial goods replenishment typically occurs from May to June, while retail replenishment peaks from July to August, suggesting a potential increase in shipping activity [6]. Group 3: Price Stability and Future Expectations - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about the sustainability of the rebound in the container shipping index, as previous price hikes have failed to hold [7]. - The success of shipping companies' pricing strategies during the peak season will be crucial for future freight rates, with ongoing uncertainties in international trade posing risks to the market [7][8]. - Analysts expect that the spot freight rates will stabilize and rise starting in June, but caution against overestimating future prices due to the current oversupply of capacity on the European line [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents comprehensive data on EC futures contracts, including prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. It also provides information on shipping capacity arrangements, recent European line quotes, and relevant news in the shipping industry, such as tariff adjustments and Middle - East situation updates [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - Price and Change: Different EC futures contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) have varying closing prices and percentage changes. For example, EC2506 closed at 17722 with a 5.18% increase, while EC2604 closed at 1249.0 with a 0.59% increase [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes and open interest also differ among contracts. EC2506 had a trading volume of 71025 and an open interest of 28322, with a decrease of 5885 in open interest [2]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spreads between different contract months show different trends. For instance, the spread between EC2506 - 2508 was - 615.7, with a day - on - day change of - 20.7 and a week - on - week change of - 184.9 [2]. Shipping Capacity Arrangements - In May and June 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly shipping capacity is 30.3 and 30.5 million TEU respectively. OA added two sailings cancellations in week 23, and PA added one in week 24 [2]. European Line Quotes - MSC's June opening quote is 2640 US dollars. Quotes in the second half of May decreased month - on - month, landing at around 1200 - 1250 points at the end of May. In June, except for MSK, other shipping companies announced price increases, with an average of 3000 US dollars (equivalent to 2050 points on the disk). MSK's Japan - Europe base cabin quotes before June were 1500 US dollars and it recently announced a price increase for the local line freight [3]. Shipping News - Tariff Adjustment: Starting from May 14 for 90 days, the US tariff rate on China will drop from 145% to 30%, and China's tariff rate on the US will drop from 125% to 10%. Additionally, a 24% reciprocal tariff will be exempted for 90 days. The US also adjusted the ad - valorem tariff rate for small parcels worth less than 800 US dollars from 120% to 54% and maintained a 100 - dollar specific tariff per item [4][5]. - Middle - East Situation: Hamas officials stated that reports of releasing Israeli detainees in exchange for a two - month cease - fire were false. As of May 19, cease - fire negotiations had made no progress, with differences between Israel and Hamas on the terms of releasing detainees [5]. Shipping Indexes - Multiple shipping indexes are presented, including SCFI, CCFI, NCFI, TCI, FBX11, WCI, and XSI - C. Their values, changes, and historical trends are shown. For example, the SCFI on May 16 was 1154 US dollars/TEU, with a 0.60% decrease from the previous period [2].

| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/19 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 合约 | 昨日 远营价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日特仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | | EC2506 | 1685.0 | -5.72 | -382.4 | 108778 | | 34207 | -4355 | | | | EC2508 | 2280.0 | -3.36 | -977.4 | 80677 | | 48759 | 245 | | | | EC2510 | 1445.0 | -1.34 | -142.4 | 25430 | | 23558 | -893 | | | | EC2512 | 1595.0 | -1.01 | -292.4 | 4306 | | 5138 | 34 | | | | EC2602 | 1419.5 | -2.04 | -116.9 | 1548 | | 3214 | -80 | | Harri | | EC2604 | 1241. ...

广州期货指出，部分船公司此前已宣涨6月线上报价，如ONE六月上旬报价涨至大柜约2437美元，5月 下旬约1637美元；HPL六月上旬报价微涨至约1800/3000；CMA CGM六月暂报1710/2995；留意其他船 司后续是否跟进。前期从美线外溢到欧线的运力，受到中美谈判后下调加征关税的影响，预计后续重新 调配至美线运输，欧线方面运力预期有一定的下调修正，近期周均运力约29万TEU，相对而言供应过剩 程度放缓。展望后市，短期内市场或将围绕部分加征关税暂停加征的90天内、货主集中抢运的预期进行 交易，加征关税下调的乐观情绪带动下，期价或暂偏强运行。 中财期货分析称，本次关税调整有利中美贸易恢复，更可能部分释放3-4月被压抑的部分需求，盘面利 多。但前期抢出口导致美国企业库存相对较高，激发的补库需求少，而航线运力相对过剩。其他成本中 燃料油可能因关税调整震荡下行，港口及战争附加费略有减少，保费可能有所下降。08合约前向上挺价 的空间有限。后续政策仍有不确定变化，货主在近期大概率仍以观望为主，因此我们判断短期应是盘面 强现实弱。 目前来看，集运指数（欧线）行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于集运指数（欧线）后 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - EC2506 had a yesterday's charge price of 1465.2, a change of -0.07%, a basis of -162.6, a yesterday's trading volume of 81997, a yesterday's open interest of 36838, and an open interest change of -561[2] - EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 1896.0, a change of 5.69%, a basis of -593.4, a yesterday's trading volume of ୧୧୦୧୫, a yesterday's open interest of 40901, and an open interest change of 1438[2] - EC2510 had a yesterday's charge price of 1410.3, a change of -4.81%, a basis of -107.7, a yesterday's trading volume of 25388, a yesterday's open interest of 19695, and an open interest change of 1875[2] - EC2512 had a yesterday's charge price of 1603.0, a change of -4.75%, a basis of -300.4, a yesterday's trading volume of 4425, a yesterday's open interest of 4438, and an open interest change of -113[2] - EC2602 had a yesterday's charge price of 1414.5, a change of -5.71%, a basis of -111.9, a yesterday's trading volume of 2517, a yesterday's open interest of 2953, and an open interest change of 9[2] - EC2604 had a yesterday's charge price of 1269.2, a change of -6.68%, a basis of 33.4, a yesterday's trading volume of 2609, a yesterday's open interest of 2096, and an open interest change of 578[2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2506 - 2508: The previous day's month - to - month spread was -279.0, the previous two days' was -430.8, the previous three days' was -327.8, and the differences were -103.0 and -159.4[2] - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 485.7, the previous two days' was 268.0, the previous three days' was 214.0, and the differences were 173.3 and 312.4[2] - EC2506 - 2510: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 54.9, the previous two days' was -11.0, the previous three days' was 54.6, and the differences were 70.3 and -15.4[2] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's month - to - month spread was -192.7, the previous two days' was -185.0, the previous three days' was -19.9, and the differences were 8.7 and -201.4[2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 163.8, the previous two days' was 188.5, the previous three days' was 182.8, and the differences were 5.7 and 19.2[2] Shipping Indexes - CCFI (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was 1445.24 points, down from 1499.5 points, a decrease of -0.94%[2] - NCFI (European Line) had a -0.94% change[2] - FBX11 had a -2.34% change[2] - WCI had a -4.76% change[2] - SCEI on May 9, 2025, was $1161/TEU, compared to the previous value of $1260/TEU[2] - XSI - C (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was $2033/FEU, up 0.05% from the previous value, and down -1.17% compared to an earlier period[2] - TCI (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was 756.79 points, down -4.04% from the previous value; on May 13, 2025, it was 594.23 points, with no change from the previous value and a -0.85% change compared to an earlier period[2] Shipping News and Quotes - On May 12, 2025, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US - China tariff rate dropped from 145% to 30%, the China - US tariff rate dropped from 125% to 10%, and 24% of the reciprocal tariffs were exempted for 90 days. The US also adjusted the ad - valorem tariff rate for small packages under $800 from 120% to 54% and maintained the $100 per - piece specific tariff for small postal items, canceling the planned increase to $200 on June 1[2] - On May 13, 2025, HPL adjusted its May announced price increase from $3000 to $3200. For June, HPL's announced price increase reached $3200, ONE's reached $2437, and CMA's reached $2995[2] - In the first half of May, shipping companies initially mostly continued the previous prices, then the quotes gradually decreased, with week 18/19 ending at 1350 and 1300 points respectively. In the second half of May, the quotes continued to decline, with week 20 ending at 1200 - 1250 points, and week 21 continuing the price, with the current average converted to the futures price being 1230 points[2] Middle East Situation - On May 12, 2025, the Houthi rebels claimed to have used missiles to attack an Israeli airport and hit the target accurately[3] - On May 13, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would fully commit to advancing into the Gaza Strip in the coming days[3]

EC期货合约价格走势 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2504 | | | | | A BALL A BELLER | A | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/9 | | 导致 | | | 昨日收篇快 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | EC2506 | | | 1283.0 | -0.40 | 96.1 | 53581 | | 38142 | -1368 | | EC2508 | | | 1556.4 | -0.21 | -177.3 | 28090 | | 36029 | -109 | | EC2510 | | | 1273.2 | -1.14 | 105.9 | 6765 | | 16670 | -756 | | EC2512 | | | 1458.6 | -0.14 | -79.5 | 1379 | | 3986 | -105 ...

| | | | | | | 研究所可以解放之IV | | | 2025/5/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1288.2 | -0.87 | 90.9 | 33882 | | 39510 | 3642 | | | EC2508 | | 1559.6 | 3.29 | - 180.5 | 39237 | | 36138 | 3696 | | | EC2510 | | 1287.9 | 1.81 | 91.2 | 11837 | | 17426 | 1332 | | | EC2512 | | 1460.7 | 0.74 | -81.6 | 1893 | | 4091 | 101 | | | EC2602 | | 1291.4 | 0.19 | 87.7 | 982 | | 2735 | 132 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1182.6 | -3.70 | 196 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given documents. The reports mainly provide data on shipping futures, spot rates, and related news. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Data - **EC Futures Contracts**: The report shows the prices, price changes, bases, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple EC futures contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) as of May 6, 2025. For example, EC2506 closed at 1324.3 with a 3.82% increase, and its trading volume was 54,878 with an open interest of 33,250 and a decrease of 4,385 in open interest [2]. - **Futures Month - to - Month Spreads**: It also presents the month - to - month spreads of different EC futures contracts, such as EC2506 - 2508, EC2508 - 2510, etc., along with their comparisons to previous periods [2]. Shipping Indexes - **Index Data**: Various shipping indexes are updated at different frequencies. For instance, the SCHI2 index was 1379.07 on May 5, 2025, with a - 3.52% change from the previous period. The SCFI index was $1260/TEU on April 25, 2025, down 4.26% from the previous period [2]. Shipping News - **Shipping Company News**: MSC added a sail - stop in week 20 and 25, causing the average weekly shipping capacity in May - June to contract slightly to 300,000 and 330,000 TEU, with a - 2% and + 9% change respectively [2]. - **European Line Quotes**: The European line market remains weak. CMA and EMC lowered their quotes in the 19th and 20th weeks, with the May quote center continuing to decline. The average quote for wk20 was $1800 (equivalent to about 1250 points on the futures market) [3]. International News - **Trade News**: On April 29, sources said that Trump is working on larger - scale trade agreements with multiple countries, including Japan, Vietnam, etc. The White House's trade team received 18 written proposals [4]. - **Middle - East Tension News**: On May 6, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a "high - intensity" military expansion in the Gaza Strip, aiming to defeat Hamas and secure the release of hostages. Israeli officials also reported air - strikes on Yemen in retaliation for Houthi missile attacks [5].

中东局势相关新闻 4/28 美军称对胡塞武装造成致命打击 但不会披露行动细节。 4/29 以色列官员：（关于加沙问题谈判取得突破的）报道是不正确的。目前还没有真正的进展, 4/29 埃及消息人士：埃以在开罗讨论加沙停火新提议。一名埃及安全部门消息人士28日告诉新华社，埃及官员当天在首都开罗 与以色列战略事务部长德尔默率领的以方代表团举行会议，讨论一项旨在实现加沙地带停火的新提议。这两名不愿透露姓名的消 息人士表示，埃及提出了一项新提议，主要内容包括暂时停火6个月，以换取巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）释放—半以色 列被扣押人员。以方此前拒绝了埃及提出的一项哈马斯释放所有以色列被扣押人员以换取停火5年的提议。两名消息人士说，新 提议还包括以色列军队分阶段撤出加沙地带、开始加沙地带重建等内容。 注: XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布。 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队。 | | 2025/4/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 告约 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基 | 昨日成交量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the price increase announcement failed, and the market is in a pessimistic atmosphere with wide - range fluctuations and in a bottom - searching process. The short - term operation is difficult, and risk - preferring investors can wait for rebound opportunities [1][4]. - The core logic for this year lies in the trend of international tariff policies. In April, the US may have repeated tariff policies for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding a major disturbing factor to future shipping trends. Shipping companies intend to support prices, but cannot avoid price wars among alliances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On April 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1508.44 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1368.41 points, down 13.8% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 921.24 points, down 4.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 839.73 points, down 10.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.42 points, down 0.46% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1370.58 points, down 24.10 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1316 USD/TEU, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2103 USD/FEU, down 4.5% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1110.94 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1486.14 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 811.65 points, up 1.9% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In the eurozone, the March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the March services PMI preliminary value was 50.4 (expected 51), and the March composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (February was 50.2, the highest since August). The March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [2]. - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed down significantly [3]. - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI preliminary value was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI preliminary value was 53.5, the highest in three months [3]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the volatility is large [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended that risk - preferring investors try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. d. Contract Information - On April 18, the main contract 2506 closed at 1533.0, with a decline of 1.11%, a trading volume of 53,900 lots, and an open interest of 36,100 lots, a reduction of 817 lots from the previous day [4]. - The price limit for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 16%. The company's margin for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]. e. Other Information - Most shipping companies will continue to use the April - end freight rates in early May, and the price increase announcement in early May failed, with a generally bearish atmosphere and wide - range market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Maersk will adjust the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for routes from countries in the Far East (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025, until further notice, with 1000 US dollars for small containers and 2000 US dollars for large containers [5]. - There are reports that Hamas is willing to reach a long - term cease - fire with Israel and hand over the governance control of Gaza to an independent institution, but the news has not been confirmed by Hamas [4][5]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing issued a statement opposing the US 301 investigation measures against China's logistics, maritime, and shipbuilding sectors [5].