Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank (招商银行) reported a steady improvement in operational performance for the first three quarters of 2023, with net profit slightly increasing year-on-year despite challenges in the banking sector [1][4]. Revenue Trends - For the first three quarters, the bank achieved operating income of 251.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51%, but the decline narrowed by approximately 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2]. - Net interest income for the same period was 160.04 billion yuan, up 1.74% year-on-year, while non-interest income was 91.38 billion yuan, down 4.23%, indicating a slight recovery in fee and commission income [2]. Operational Advantages - The bank maintained a significant net interest margin of 1.87%, which, although down 12 basis points year-on-year, showed a smaller decline compared to the previous year [4]. - Retail loans reached 3.70 trillion yuan, growing 1.43% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience in a challenging economic environment [5]. Development Trends - As of the end of September, total assets reached 12.64 trillion yuan, a 4.05% increase from the end of the previous year, with total loans and advances at 7.14 trillion yuan, up 3.60% [6]. - Customer deposits totaled 9.52 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.64% increase year-on-year [6]. Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.94%, a slight decrease from the previous year, with a provision coverage ratio of 405.93%, indicating strong asset quality management [7]. - The bank's management emphasized a focus on high-quality clients and collateral, with 90% of loans classified as "three high" (high quality, high area, high collateral) [7]. Income Structure - Non-interest income accounted for 36.34% of total revenue, with significant growth in wealth management services, including a year-on-year increase of 18.76% in fee and commission income [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 7.10 CNY / 5.90 HKD [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 491.204 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 177.660 billion CNY, up 1.08% year-on-year [1][7] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.24%, unchanged from the previous quarter, and the provision coverage ratio was 196.60%, down 0.79 percentage points [1][7] - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience, with non-interest income growing significantly, offsetting the pressure from narrowing interest margins [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 630.090 billion CNY in 2024, 643.890 billion CNY in 2025E, 667.791 billion CNY in 2026E, and 696.713 billion CNY in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.16%, 2.19%, 3.71%, and 4.33% respectively [3][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 237.841 billion CNY in 2024, 242.559 billion CNY in 2025E, 250.463 billion CNY in 2026E, and 259.247 billion CNY in 2027E, with growth rates of 2.56%, 1.98%, 3.26%, and 3.51% respectively [3][8] - The company’s net interest margin is projected to decline from 1.36% in 2024 to 1.12% in 2027 [8][12] Asset Quality and Capital Position - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable at around 1.25% through 2025, with a provision coverage ratio projected to decrease slightly to 195% [10][12] - The company’s capital adequacy ratios are robust, with core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at 12.58% as of September 2025, providing a solid foundation for business growth and risk management [7][11] Investment Recommendation - The report highlights the company's strong operational performance and international business advantages, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook and valuation benefits [7][8] - The target price reflects a price-to-book ratio of 0.8X for 2026, considering the current market conditions and historical valuation trends [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.10 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that non-interest income has declined, impacting Q3 revenue performance. However, the bank's asset quality remains strong, and there is a clear strategic path for business expansion [6][9]. - The bank's total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 9.0%, 6.8%, and 10.1% respectively as of September, showing a recovery in deposit growth after rectifying high-interest deposits [6]. - The net interest margin has stabilized, leading to a year-on-year increase in net interest income of 6.1% [6]. - Non-interest income has decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, primarily due to rising bond market rates affecting valuations [7]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.98%, with a slight decrease in the NPL balance, indicating effective risk control [8]. Financial Projections - For the fiscal years 2024 to 2027, the projected operating revenue is RMB 4,385 million, RMB 4,437 million, RMB 4,476 million, and RMB 4,653 million respectively, with growth rates of 15.29%, 1.19%, 0.88%, and 3.95% [4]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is RMB 1,922 million, RMB 2,026 million, RMB 2,134 million, and RMB 2,263 million, with growth rates of 11.27%, 5.40%, 5.36%, and 6.03% [4]. - The bank's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 5.63 in 2024 to 4.78 in 2027, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to decline from 0.59 to 0.46 over the same period [4]. Strategic Outlook - The bank's "One Foundation and Four Arrows" strategy is clearly defined, with significant room for business expansion, justifying a target PB of 0.70 times for 2025 [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring hidden risks and the impact of VAT adjustments on future performance [6].

农商行Ⅱ 详解渝农商行 2025 三季报： 存贷规模稳步增长，资产质量持续提升 渝农商行（601077.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 29 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 27,902 | 28,179 | 28,342 | 28,857 | 29,421 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -3.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,900 | 11,513 | 12,134 | 12,721 | 13,230 | | Email：daizf@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has experienced a slowdown in growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 3.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, while the third quarter saw a decline of 4.41% due to a drop in non-interest income [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.526 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.85%, with a 6.22% increase in the third quarter, primarily due to improved asset quality and reduced asset impairment losses [1] - The net interest margin has widened, with net interest income growing by 6.1% year-on-year, and the net interest margin for the first three quarters reported at 1.49%, a slight decrease of 3 basis points year-on-year but an improvement compared to the first half of the year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total assets at the end of the period were 230.3 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase from the beginning of the year, with total loans amounting to 133.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.0% growth [2] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.98%, with a provision coverage ratio of 197%, which increased by 5 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.034 billion yuan, 2.198 billion yuan, and 2.444 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 8.1%, and 11.2% [3][4] - The price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.52x, 0.48x, and 0.44x, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4] Market Position and Strategy - The company primarily serves small and micro enterprises, facing intense competition and weak credit demand, which may pressure short-term operations [3] - However, the solid customer base and regional advantages suggest that the small loan market will improve with steady economic recovery, indicating good long-term growth potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Bank reported a revenue of 11 billion and a net profit of 4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 5% and 15.5% respectively, with a return on average equity (ROAE) of 13.16% [1] Revenue and Profitability - The bank's revenue growth was pressured by non-interest income, while profitability maintained a double-digit growth. Year-on-year growth rates for revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit were 5%, 7.6%, and 15.5% respectively, showing a decline compared to the first half of 2025 [2] - Net interest income grew by 12%, while non-interest income decreased by 10.7%, indicating a widening negative growth in non-interest income [2][5] Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of Q3 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 15.9% and 13.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating steady credit growth and asset expansion [2] - New loans in Q3 amounted to 6.9 billion, with corporate loans increasing by 7.9 billion and retail loans decreasing by 1.1 billion, highlighting the strong performance of corporate lending [3] Deposit and Liability Management - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 15.3% and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with stable deposit growth [4] - New deposits in Q3 totaled 15.6 billion, with corporate and personal deposits increasing by 9.5 billion and 6.1 billion respectively [4] Non-Interest Income and Risk Management - Non-interest income for the first three quarters was 2.87 billion, down 10.7% year-on-year, with a declining contribution to total revenue [5] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio and attention ratio were 1.1% and 0.55% respectively, indicating stable asset quality [5] Capital Adequacy - As of the end of Q3 2025, the bank's core tier 1, tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios were 8.75%, 10.18%, and 13.14% respectively, showing stable capital adequacy [6] Future Outlook - The bank aims to continue its strategic focus on structural adjustment, customer base strengthening, and operational efficiency, with expectations of stable growth in net interest income and double-digit profit growth [7]

证券研究报告 成都银行 (601838 CH) 非息扰动无碍长期韧性 华泰研究 季报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 23.25 沈娟 研究员 SAC No. S0570514040002 SFC No. BPN843 贺雅亭 研究员 heyating@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 蒲葭依 研究员 SAC No. S0570525090001 SFC No. BVL774 李润凌* 联系人 SAC No. S0570123090022 lirunling@htsc.com 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 28 日) | 18.11 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 76,758 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 478.81 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 15.36-20.88 | 股价走势图 (10) 1 13 24 35 Oct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 (%) 成都银行 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has experienced a slowdown in growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 3.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, while the third quarter saw a decline of 4.41% due to a drop in non-interest income [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.526 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.85%, with a 6.22% increase in the third quarter, primarily due to improved asset quality and reduced asset impairment losses, which decreased by 18% year-on-year [1] - The net interest margin widened to 1.49%, with net interest income growing by 6.1% year-on-year, benefiting from improved deposit cost management [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total assets at the end of the period were 230.3 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase from the beginning of the year, with total loans amounting to 133.5 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year [2] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.98%, with a provision coverage ratio of 197%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.034 billion yuan, 2.198 billion yuan, and 2.444 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 8.1%, and 11.2% [3][4] - The price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.52x, 0.48x, and 0.44x, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4] Market Position and Strategy - The company primarily serves small and micro enterprises, facing intense competition and weak credit demand, which may pressure short-term operations [3] - However, the solid customer base and regional advantages suggest good growth potential in the medium to long term as the small loan market improves with economic recovery [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [5] Core Views - The company's net profit growth has turned positive, with a cumulative revenue of 491.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 177.7 billion yuan, up 1.08% year-on-year [1][2] - The net interest margin has stabilized, with a reported net interest margin of 1.26% for the first three quarters, unchanged from the first half of the year, but down 15 basis points year-on-year. The decline in new loan rates has gradually narrowed, and effective cost control on deposits has alleviated the downward pressure on asset yields [2] - The company's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.24% at the end of the period, unchanged from the end of September, and a provision coverage ratio of 197%, also stable [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 491.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 177.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.08% [1] - The third quarter saw a revenue growth of 0.58% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 5.1% year-on-year, attributed to a reduction in credit asset impairment losses by 8.8% and a decrease in the effective tax rate to 16.1% [1] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.24%, with a provision coverage ratio of 197%, indicating stable asset quality [2] - The company has reduced the provision for credit losses, contributing to improved profitability [1] Growth Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 241.6 billion yuan, 149.4 billion yuan, and 267.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 3.2%, and 7.2% [2][6] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65x, 0.61x, and 0.58x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share of $1.19 for Q3 2025, down from $1.36 in the previous quarter and $1.32 in Q3 2024 [4] - Return on average assets was 1.11% and pre-provision return on average assets was 1.61% [5] - Net interest income increased by $5.5 million compared to the previous quarter, reaching $158 million, while net interest margin improved by two basis points to 4.23% [5][25] - Non-performing assets increased by $22 million, resulting in a ratio of 83 basis points compared to 71 basis points in the linked quarter [20][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth for the quarter was 6% or $174 million, net of $22 million in guaranteed loan sales [6][14] - Deposit growth was exceptional, with an increase of $240 million in the quarter, leading to a total year-over-year increase of approximately 7% [7][18] - Specialty deposits grew by $189 million in the quarter and $681 million year-over-year, reflecting a 22% increase [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced strong loan origination in the Southwest markets, particularly in Dallas and Las Vegas [6][13] - Growth in deposits was observed across all regions year-over-year, with non-interest-bearing accounts representing over 32% of total deposits [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating new branches acquired in Arizona and Kansas City, which will enhance its market presence [3][11] - The strategy emphasizes organic growth and maintaining a balanced approach to lending and deposit generation [11][58] - The management is optimistic about the economic environment, with expectations of continued loan production and client onboarding [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that clients are showing increased confidence due to recent economic developments, including interest rate cuts and clarity in trade policies [12][13] - The company expects to maintain or slightly accelerate loan production levels moving forward [12] - There is confidence in returning non-performing assets to historical levels in the coming quarters [10][21] Other Important Information - The company increased its quarterly dividend by $0.01 to $0.32 per share for Q4 2025 [9][31] - The acquisition of branches is expected to be accretive to net interest margin, despite recent interest rate cuts [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide clarity on the resolution timeline for the Southern California credits and the life insurance premium finance loan? - Management indicated that the resolution for the Southern California loans may take longer than anticipated due to a secondary bankruptcy filing, while the life insurance loan is expected to be resolved through litigation, with full principal coverage assured [36][38] Question: What is the company's exposure to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs)? - The company has approximately $260 to $270 million in balances across 18 to 20 relationships with private lenders, primarily secured by first mortgages on residential real estate [39][40] Question: What are the expectations for non-interest expenses in the fourth quarter? - The company anticipates total expenses to be around $112 million, factoring in branch acquisition costs and normalizing for non-recurring items [67] Question: How does the company view its capital priorities moving forward? - The focus remains on organic growth, with potential for share buybacks if suitable M&A opportunities do not arise [58][76] Question: What is driving the growth in specialty deposits? - The company has invested in people and systems, leading to a variable cost model that is profitable and allows for market share growth [77]