证券研究报告 A股2026年十大预测 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：林煜辉 执业证书编号：S0600124060012 邮箱：linyh@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：谢立昕 执业证书编号：S0600525080001 邮箱：xielx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：蒋珺逸 执业证书编号：S0600525040004 邮箱：jiangjy@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月28日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 回顾2025年提出的十大预测 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期；美债见顶下行迟于预期；地缘政治事件黑天鹅。 数据来源：Wind，东吴证券研究所；注：涨幅若无其他说明，统计区间均为2025年1月1日-2025年12月26日） 2 ◼ 回顾2025年提出的十大预测： ➢ 预测一：A股震荡上行，进入新的波动中枢（万得全A涨幅为28.1%，沪指四季度围绕3900点震荡） ➢ 预测二：2025年A股交易结构比指数更 ...

Group 1 - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, with a lifespan of 15 to 20 years to match the long-term R&D needs of hard technology [2] - The fund aims to leverage a substantial fiscal investment to mobilize trillions in social capital, with at least 70% of investments directed towards seed and early-stage companies [2][3] - The fund operates as a "fund of funds," delegating decision-making to regional funds, which enhances efficiency and separates government guidance from market operations [2] Group 2 - Japan's new fiscal year budget is set at approximately 122.3 trillion yen (about $786 billion), marking a 6.3% increase from the previous year's budget [4] - The government plans to issue around 29.6 trillion yen in new bonds to support this budget, with a slight reduction in reliance on debt issuance [4][5] - The budget focuses on social security, debt repayment, and defense spending, reflecting the increasing financial pressures due to an aging population and rising costs [4][5] Group 3 - China's civil aviation sector is projected to achieve a record high of 770 million passenger trips in 2025, a 5.4% increase from 2024 and a 16.6% increase from 2019 [6] - The average economy class ticket price is expected to drop by 2.9% to 740 yuan, indicating a strategy of "price for volume" among airlines [6][7] - Despite the increase in passenger numbers, the low ticket prices are compressing profit margins, raising concerns about the sustainability of this pricing strategy [7] Group 4 - The robot rental market is experiencing explosive growth, with daily rental prices for basic intelligent robots dropping to around 200 yuan, while more advanced models range from 2,000 to 5,000 yuan [8] - The demand for robot rentals is high, with bookings extending into February, but prices are fluctuating significantly [8] - The market for humanoid robots is still in its early stages, and broader applications are needed for significant growth [9] Group 5 - The price of tomatoes has surged, with retail prices in many regions exceeding 10 yuan per jin, reflecting a nearly 71.9% year-on-year increase [10] - Adverse weather conditions have impacted supply, leading to higher prices during a seasonal transition period [10] - The demand for tomatoes is expected to rise further as the New Year and Spring Festival approach, maintaining upward pressure on prices [10] Group 6 - A report from Visa indicates that 28% of American adults would be pleased to receive cryptocurrency as a gift, with this figure rising to 45% among Gen Z [11] - Nearly half of shoppers have utilized AI tools for shopping tasks, highlighting the growing integration of technology in consumer behavior [11][12] - The rising inflation has made cryptocurrency a more appealing gift option, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards asset-based gifts [11] Group 7 - The LOF market has seen significant volatility, with multiple funds experiencing rapid price fluctuations, indicating potential irrational trading behavior [13] - The recent surge in silver prices has created arbitrage opportunities in the LOF market, but the risks associated with such trading strategies are evident [13] - The complexity of LOF products and the lack of transparency can lead to vulnerabilities for ordinary investors [13] Group 8 - The stock market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.1% amid a volatile trading session [14] - Market sentiment showed signs of recovery after a brief dip, although many stocks turned from gains to losses [14] - The trading volume was substantial, indicating active market participation despite the fluctuations [14]

格隆汇12月27日｜据辽宁日报，辽宁省委书记许昆林强调，辽宁省量子科技等未来产业发展具有一定基 础和条件，要紧盯关键环节，力争在若干细分领域形成独特优势和产业特色。要加强科学规划统筹谋 划，围绕国家战略需求和前沿技术发展趋势，结合"十五五"规划编制，科学制定量子科技等未来产业发 展规划，推动形成从基础研究、应用研究、技术研发到产业化的全链条布局，尽快形成体系化能力。要 着力提升创新能力，积极引进量子科技等未来产业领军企业，推动形成龙头企业引领、众多企业聚集、 各创新主体协作的良好发展生态；加强相关学科和课程体系建设，加快培养一批高精尖人才，注重人才 引进，通过"引进一个团队、催生一批项目、吸引更多人才"，形成聚才效应；大力支持相关高校院所开 展以市场需求、成果转化为导向的产业技术研发，力争在基础研究、关键核心技术攻关上取得新突破； 推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，加快科技成果工程化突破和产业化应用，切实转化为现实生产力、 新质生产力。要营造良好政策环境，加快构建多元化长期稳定投入机制，建立量子科技等未来产业扶持 政策体系和服务体系，在技术攻关、协同创新、场景开放、集群培育等方面形成更加有力的政策支持。 ...

Core Insights - By 2025, China is expected to achieve significant breakthroughs in various scientific fields, including quantum technology and lunar research, contributing to the nation's technological self-reliance and innovation [3][5]. Group 1: Space Exploration - The Chang'e 6 mission is set to return samples from the moon's far side, revealing new insights into lunar oxidation mechanisms and marking a major scientific breakthrough in lunar research [4]. - The Tianwen-2 probe will conduct close-range exploration of a near-Earth asteroid, with a sample return expected by the end of 2027, indicating a shift towards long-term space exploration and resource utilization [4]. - China plans to advance its lunar research station, manned lunar missions, Mars sample return, and Jupiter system exploration, enhancing its capabilities in deep space exploration [4]. Group 2: Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is identified as a critical future technology, with China focusing on achieving full autonomy in quantum computing through the development of hardware and software systems [7]. - The third-generation superconducting quantum computer "Benyuan Wukong" has been launched, participating in numerous collaborations across key industries and achieving international cooperation in quantum computing [8]. - The development of quantum computing is likened to building a rocket, emphasizing the importance of integrating hardware and software for effective functionality [7]. Group 3: Brain-Computer Interfaces - Brain-computer interface technology is evolving to connect biological intelligence with machine intelligence, utilizing advanced decoding and encoding techniques to interpret brain signals [9]. - Clinical advancements in brain-computer interfaces are being made, with the establishment of comprehensive clinical trial centers and the initiation of global trials [11]. - The technology aims to redefine the boundaries of intelligence by merging carbon-based and silicon-based systems, enhancing cognitive capabilities [10]. Group 4: Digital Intelligence Technologies - Digital intelligence technologies, including cloud computing and artificial intelligence, are seen as essential tools for enhancing innovation across various industries [13]. - The integration of digital technologies into industrial processes is expected to significantly improve production efficiency and transform manufacturing paradigms [13]. - Open collaboration and resource sharing are highlighted as accelerators for technological advancement, contributing to global challenges [14]. Group 5: Hydrogen Energy - Hydrogen energy is recognized as a vital component of the renewable energy revolution, complementing electricity and supporting sustainable development [16]. - China has made significant progress in hydrogen fuel cell technology and is establishing a related industrial chain to enhance the role of hydrogen in the energy transition [17]. - The future of hydrogen energy will focus on tailored solutions that meet specific regional needs, ensuring its benefits for society [16]. Group 6: Research Talent Development - Universities are positioned as key players in nurturing research talent, aligning educational programs with national strategic needs [19]. - The emphasis is on practical applications of research, encouraging scientists to engage with industry and address real-world challenges [19]. - A supportive environment for young researchers is essential, promoting innovation and allowing for flexible evaluation of research outcomes [20]. Group 7: Basic Research Support - Basic research in China is gaining increased attention and funding, although it still lags behind developed countries in terms of investment [22]. - Continuous support for basic research is necessary, including funding stability and diverse investment channels to foster groundbreaking discoveries [22][23]. - A positive research culture is crucial for sustaining long-term engagement in basic research, promoting a supportive atmosphere for scientists [23]. Group 8: Science Popularization - The relationship between scientific innovation and public science education is emphasized, with efforts to enhance public understanding of science [24][25]. - Initiatives aimed at improving scientific literacy among youth are seen as foundational for future technological advancements [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund marks a strategic initiative to support the construction of a modern industrial system and foster an autonomous innovation capital chain amid increasing international technological competition [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Significance - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to inject confidence into the market by signaling long-term governmental support for innovation and entrepreneurship [2]. - It addresses market failures by providing initial funding for high-risk, long-cycle original technology projects, filling the gap left by market capital [2]. - The fund is designed to create an innovation network that promotes collaboration among various market entities, facilitating the flow of capital, knowledge, and management experience [2]. Group 2: Regional Fund Structure - The simultaneous establishment of three regional funds in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area represents a strategic allocation of resources based on national priorities [2][3]. - Each region specializes in different aspects of innovation: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei focuses on original innovation, the Yangtze River Delta excels in engineering and industrialization, and the Greater Bay Area is known for application and business model innovation [3]. - This structured approach aims to shorten the time it takes for technological achievements to transition from laboratories to market applications, contributing to the establishment of a unified national market [3]. Group 3: Long-term Investment and Risk Sharing - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the importance of building a modern industrial system and outlines strategic areas for future investment, including quantum technology and biomanufacturing, which require long-term funding and risk-sharing mechanisms [4][5]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund is positioned as a key vehicle for this risk-sharing mechanism, particularly in critical technology sectors facing external pressures [5]. - The fund seeks to explore innovative institutional reforms to balance the acceptance of failure with the prevention of moral hazards, ensuring that investment decisions respect professional judgments while meeting policy objectives [5].

★ 宏观动态 ★ 工信部：加强算力网络体系建设，深入实施城域"毫秒用算"专项行动 12月25日至26日，全国工业和信息化工作会议在京召开。会议强调，2026年要围绕实现"十五五"良好开局，聚 焦重点、抓住关键，突出抓好十个方面重点工作。其中包括，推动信息通信业高质量发展。启动实施"宽带升 级"专项，开展新一轮万兆光网试点。加快移动物联网"万物智联"发展。加强算力网络体系建设，深入实施城 域"毫秒用算"专项行动。组织开展2026电信业务"明白办、放心用"行动。强化重要数据和核心数据识别与保 护，推动建立汽车等重点领域数据跨境流动机制。发布新版《无线电频率划分规定》，出台低空经济发展等领 域频率开发利用指南。 财政部：国家创业投资引导基金预计撬动万亿级社会资本 12月26日，国家创业投资引导基金启动仪式上，财政部相关负责人表示，国家创业投资引导基金具备以下新的 特点：一是财政力度更大；二是投资定位更精准，基金以"投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技"为鲜明导向，聚焦 人工智能、生物制药、量子科技、6G等前沿领域，以长达15年—20年的存续周期匹配硬科技、长周期的研发 需求；三是资金放大效果好。基金采取引导基金、区域基金、 ...

Core Insights - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched, with three regional funds established: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, managed by CICC Capital, State Investment and Development Corporation, and Shenzhen Capital Group respectively [1][4] Group 1: Fund Characteristics - Increased financial support: The fund utilizes long-term special national debt funding, with a total of 100 billion yuan contributed by the central government to leverage central financial resources [1] - More precise investment focus: The fund emphasizes "early, small, long-term, and hard technology" investments, targeting cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, with a lifespan of 15 to 20 years to match the long-term R&D needs of hard technology [1] - Enhanced fund operation model: The fund operates under a "mother fund + regional fund + sub-fund" model, aiming to mobilize social capital at a scale of trillions through substantial fiscal resources [2] Group 2: Management Mechanism - Improved management mechanism: The fund will be operated in a market-oriented manner by capable management institutions, with plans to explore a due diligence exemption mechanism and a full lifecycle assessment mechanism to enhance fund vitality and encourage long-term focus [3] Group 3: Regional Fund Focus - Yangtze River Delta Venture Capital Guidance Fund: This fund is jointly funded by national and multi-level state-owned assets from Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, focusing on investments in artificial intelligence, quantum technology, hydrogen energy storage, biomanufacturing, embodied intelligence, and 6G, supporting original and disruptive technological innovations [4]

【重点关注】 ·国家创业投资引导基金启动预计撬动万亿级社会资本 ·工信部：有序开展卫星物联网等新业务商用试验 ·预计降费超8亿元深交所推出2026年降费措施 ·市场监管总局开展规范光伏行业价格竞争秩序合规指导 ·现货白银价格一度突破每盎司75美元 【国内要闻】 ·12月26日，国家创业投资引导基金启动，京津冀创业投资引导基金、长三角创业投资引导基金、粤港 澳大湾区创业投资引导基金三只区域基金设立运行。财政部相关负责人表示，国家创业投资引导基金具 备以下新的特点：一是财政力度更大；二是投资定位更精准，基金以"投早、投小、投长期、投硬科 技"为鲜明导向，聚焦人工智能、生物制药、量子科技、6G等前沿领域，以长达15年—20年的存续周期 匹配硬科技、长周期的研发需求；三是资金放大效果好，基金采取引导基金、区域基金、子基金三层架 构，在区域基金及子基金层面，积极面向地方政府、金融机构、国有企业、民营企业等，通过千亿级财 政资金，预计将撬动万亿级的社会资本。 ·财政部等四部门发布《关于进一步发挥政府性融资担保体系作用加力支持就业创业的指导意见》，其 中指出，降低创业群体综合融资成本。鼓励有条件的地方在可持续经营的基础上， ...

红星资本局12月26日消息，今日，备受瞩目的"航母"级耐心资本——国家创业投资引导基金正式启动。将引导基金发挥中央资金引领带 动作用，广泛吸引地方政府、中央企业、金融机构、民间资本等多方参与，形成万亿资金规模。 在今日召开的国家创业投资引导基金启动仪式上，国家发改委宣布，京津冀创业投资引导基金、长三角创业投资引导基金、粤港澳大湾 区创业投资引导基金三只区域基金目前全部完成了工商注册，已具备投入运作的条件。未来三只区域基金总规模均将超过500亿元。 资料图 超长周期耐心资本 70%资金用于"投早投小" 红星资本局注意到，引导基金坚持"投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技"的"四投"导向。 "投早"方面，引导基金将种子期、初创期企业作为主要投资对象，对此类企业的投资规模不低于基金总规模的70%； "投小"方面，对拟投资的小型企业投资要求估值在5亿元以下，且单笔投资不超过5000万元，确保资金直达各行各业的"前端"和"末梢"； "投长期"方面，通过设置20年存续期，打破传统创投基金7至10年的周期限制，进一步放宽创新药等长周期领域的投资期限； "投硬科技"方面，聚焦"十五五"规划建议明确的战略性新兴产业和未来产业，支持一批 ...

12月26日，国家发展改革委宣布国家创业投资引导基金正式启动。该基金已在京津冀、长三角、粤港澳 大湾区设立三只区域子基金，并于12月22日完成工商登记，总规模超过1200亿元。该基金存续期长达20 年，将重点聚焦人工智能、量子科技、氢能储能等前沿硬科技领域，致力于投早、投小、投长期。 简评：千亿级"国家队"耐心资本的正式入场，是落实中央会议精神、金融支持科技创新的关键举措。该 基金有望撬动更多社会资本，为处于种子期、初创期的科技企业提供长期稳定的资金来源。对A股市场 而言，此举有望强化科技创新领域的长期投资主线，对创投板块和未来有望被投资孵化的硬科技产业链 或构成长期利好。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展4000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1年期。12月，MLF维持超额续作，净投放1000亿元， 配合买 断式逆回购超额续作，两类工具共计释放长期流动性3000亿元。 来源：新浪基金 【博时市场点评12月26日】两市放量震荡，沪指录得八连阳 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数震荡收涨，沪指录得八连阳，两市成交较昨日放量至2.18万亿。海外方面， ...