Core Viewpoint - The performance of the capital market in 2026 will largely depend on investors' expectations regarding medium- to long-term fundamentals, with a focus on China's role in providing global public goods and building a modern industrial system domestically [3]. Group 1: Characteristics of a Financial Power - A strong and confident approach to opening up is essential for China's capital market to evolve into a financial power, supported by the country's rising global position and initiatives like the Belt and Road [5]. - The stock market's equity risk premium in China is significantly higher than in the U.S., indicating a need for improved market confidence and a potential for valuation adjustments [5][6]. - The historical valuation comparisons may become less relevant as the market evolves, suggesting that simplistic analyses may not capture the future dynamics [6]. Group 2: Market Resilience and Shareholder Returns - The capital market must maintain resilience and reduce volatility to attract global investors, with mechanisms in place to stabilize market sentiment during uncertainties [7][8]. - High dividend payouts from state-owned enterprises are seen as a positive shift in corporate governance, enhancing shareholder returns and attracting long-term capital [8]. - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 index remains attractive compared to the ten-year government bond yield, indicating a solid foundation for patient capital [8]. Group 3: Future Pricing and Market Dynamics - The decline in equity risk premium will depend on China's ability to convert its national and cultural influence into sustainable pricing power within global supply chains [9]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to global value added is projected to be significant, with a potential increase in competitive advantages in key areas [9]. - The focus should be on creating a sustainable profit ecosystem rather than relying on excessive competition, which could enhance overall market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Capital Market Pricing and Future Industries - The capital market needs to develop a pricing mechanism for future industries, moving beyond traditional valuation methods that do not align with the potential of innovative companies [11]. - The ability to price future industries effectively will contribute to a reduction in equity risk premiums, reflecting a more mature market [11]. Group 5: Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - The core driver of asset prices in 2026 is expected to be the Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with housing prices, will influence market dynamics [13]. - A potential rebound in profits for A-share companies is anticipated, with projections indicating a significant increase in net profits for non-financial sectors [14]. - The convergence of improving corporate fundamentals, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence is expected to support a bullish market outlook for A-shares [14].

加快打造一流投资银行和投资机构 更好助推资本市场高质量发展——吴清主席在中国证券业协会第八 次会员大会上的致辞 各位会员代表、各位来宾，同志们： 大家好！很高兴参加中国证券业协会第八次会员大会，我谨代表中国证监会，对大会的召开表示 热烈祝贺，向与会的各位代表和全行业同仁致以诚挚的问候！党的二十届四中全会着眼于中国式 现代化全局，对金融强国建设和资本市场高质量发展作出了重要部署。证券机构是资本市场上连 接投融资各方最重要的桥梁纽带，对于市场功能发挥和生态完善至关重要。下面，我重点围绕推 进证券行业高质量发展，同大家作个交流。 一、充分肯定近年来证券行业发展取得的成绩 第七次会员大会召开的四年多来，恰逢"十四五"从开局到即将收官。这期间，面对世纪疫情严重 冲击、地缘政治冲突延宕起伏、国际经贸环境急剧变化等一系列突发性超预期风险挑战，在党中 央、国务院坚强领导下，证监会深入贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话和关于资本市场的重要指示 批示精神，坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，会同市场参与各方，统筹推进资本市场防风险、强监管、 促高质量发展，系统重塑市场基础制度和监管逻辑；建设建强防波堤防浪堤，从政策、资金、预 期对冲等方面打好稳市 ...

12月6日，中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清在中国证券业协会第八届会员大会上发表题为《加快打造一 流投资银行和投资机构更好助推资本市场高质量发展》的主题演讲。 对于近年来证券行业发展取得的成绩，吴清表示，证券行业积极融入经济社会发展全局，主动服务国家 重大战略，深入落实以客户为中心的发展理念，业务结构、创新发展、风险管理能力等都发生了深刻的 变化，呈现出良好的发展态势。 吴清认为，在新征程上，证券行业作为直接融资的主要服务商、资本市场的重要看门人、社会财富的专 业管理者，发展空间广阔、大有可为，未来五年需要自觉担负起四个方面的使命： 一是在服务实体经济和新质生产力发展方面强化使命担当。证券公司连接资本市场和实体企业，拥有扎 实完备的研究体系、专业化的价值评估和风险定价能力，具备得天独厚的优势，在发掘企业的创新潜 力、匹配投融资发展需要、支持产业并购整合等方面都发挥了不可替代的关键作用，这些很大程度上也 构成了资本市场价值发现、资源配置等功能发挥的微观基础。 三是在加快建设金融强国方面强化使命担当。强大的金融机构是金融强国的关键要素，对资本市场来 说，更需要有国际一流的投资银行。证券行业每一家机构都要对标金融强国建 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 另一方面，将币值稳定与金融稳定确立为并列首要目标，并通过"双支柱"框架 为其提供工具和制度支撑。我们预计未来一段时间，可以预期宏观审慎体系的重 构大致会沿着目标、工具与机制三条主线展开，与首要目标调整形成自上而下的 闭环：其一，在目标层面，从防个案风险走向统筹系统性稳定； 其二，在工具层面，从强化 MPA 约束走向宏观审慎工具箱系统化，特别是对股 市、债市、汇市的关注度明显上升，其中在股票市场方面，在两项支持资本市场 稳定发展的货币政策工具加持下，中央汇金的"类平准基金"呈现"平准化"特 征，其逆周期功能显著增强，这也意味着未来市场仍有趋势和波动，但尾部风险 被显著削弱，中长期资金的参与意愿和持有稳定性有望明显提升，这是我们在 "十五五"期间保持长期看多中国权益市场的关键逻辑之一； 其三，在机制层面，从临时救火走向常态化预期管理和应急安排。 展望央行宏观审慎政策体系的重塑，我们认为需要重点把握两条主线：一是与金 融市场运行直接相关的宏观审慎安排重构；二是几项方向已较为明晰、具有一定 确定性的制度改革，如 MPA 体系重构、系统重要性机构扩围等。 如何建立"金融强国 ...

中航证券表示，当前券商板块估值仍处于历史低位，看好行业2026年的投资机会。展望2026年，在"金 融强国"战略与"活跃资本市场"政策基调的持续驱动下，券商行业将彻底告别同质化竞争，行业"头部券 商+中小特色券商格局逐渐明朗。资本市场改革预期不断强化，监管层明确支持优质券商通过并购重组 实现做优做强，行业集中度有望进一步提升。 值得关注的是，证券ETF（512880）持续吸金，年内份额增长超250亿份，当前规模近600亿元位居同类 首位。 午后，证券板块强势爆发，证券ETF（512880）涨超3%，成交额持续放大。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券表示，展望后市慢牛行情持续，券商作为"牛市旗手"却整体滞涨的情况下，值得更多的关注和 仓位配置。 ...

Core Insights - The "Southern Finance Forum 2025" held in Guangzhou focuses on the theme "The Power of Consensus - Innovation Surge, China's Asset Revaluation" [1][7] - Liu Shijun, a key speaker, highlighted three major advantages of China's economy: catch-up potential, new technology revolution, and super-large market economy [3][10] Economic Advantages - **Catch-up Potential**: This refers to opportunities in areas where developed economies have already advanced, such as service industry development driven by consumption structure upgrades and the transformation of traditional manufacturing and agriculture [3][9] - **New Technology Revolution**: Emphasis on digital and green technologies as focal points for economic advancement [3][9] - **Super-large Market Economy**: While China has 400 million middle-income groups, there are 900 million low-income individuals who could transition to middle-income status, potentially creating a consumption market of 800 to 900 million [3][10] Strategic Goals - **Manufacturing Power**: Aim to cultivate large innovative enterprises at the global forefront [10] - **Consumer Power**: Target to become the largest consumer market globally [10] - **Financial Power**: Financial strength is essential for achieving the first two goals, acting as a bridge for development [10] Financial Development - Liu emphasized the need for a robust capital market and strong currency to support high-quality development, focusing on selecting viable projects to enhance resource allocation efficiency [10][11] - The importance of a strong currency is highlighted, with historical examples of the British pound and the US dollar being tied to strong economic and financial systems [11] Currency Internationalization - Current GDP contribution of China's economy is 18% globally, with manufacturing at 30%, but the currency's functional role is below 10% [11] - Liu proposed increasing offshore RMB supply to achieve scale economy and enhance RMB's international use [11][12] - Suggested adjustments to foreign trade strategy to balance imports and exports while using RMB for transactions, potentially converting a trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion into offshore RMB [12] Recommendations for RMB - Advocated for RMB appreciation to allow consumers to access more international products at better prices, supporting the goal of becoming a consumer powerhouse [12] - Suggested expanding the ecosystem of offshore RMB financial products to improve liquidity and convenience, accelerating the process of RMB internationalization [12]

12月5日，A股三大指数集体下跌，其中沪指下跌0.15%。小盘成长指数活跃，截至10:32，中证1000ETF （159845）探底回升涨0.10%。其他宽基指数中，上证50跌0.04%，沪深300跌0.16%，中证500跌 0.06%。 从个股表现来看，中证1000ETF（159845）前50只权重股中，涨幅靠前的有，应流股份涨5.1%，中钨高 新涨4.13%，惠城环保涨3.58%，东睦股份涨3.39%；然而和而泰、东芯股份表现不佳，分别跌9.36%、 4.46%。 从行业表现来看，中证1000ETF前几大重仓行业中，电子下跌0.52%，电力设备上涨0.47%，医药生物下 跌0.43%，计算机下跌0.06%，机械设备上涨0.93%。 资金面来看，中证1000ETF（159845）近五个交易日资金净流入2.43亿元，近十个交易日净流入2.98亿 元，最新规模达443.45亿元。今日盘中成交额5.01亿元，远超同类指数产品，近一周平均日成交高达8.3 亿元，流动性较好。 政策方面，12月3日，中央金融办副主任王江在《人民日报》发表文章《加快建设金融强国》，强调"加 快建设金融强国是推动高质量发展的必然要求"。一 ...

丨 来源： 人民日报 2025-12-05 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年 规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）提出，提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，健全投 资和融资相协调的资本市场功能。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央科学研判、准确把 握"十五五"时期国际国内形势，紧紧围绕基本实现社会主义现代化目标，从全局高度作 出的重大战略部署，为做好资本市场改革发展稳定各项工作指明了前进方向、提供了根 本遵循。我们必须深入学习、认真领会，坚决抓好贯彻落实。 一、深刻认识提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性的重大意义 党的十八大以来，习近平总书记对资本市场高度重视，先后作出一系列重要指示批示。 2023年中央金融工作会议提出，加快建设安全、规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的 资本市场。2024年中央经济工作会议指出，深化资本市场投融资综合改革，打通中长期 资金入市卡点堵点，增强资本市场制度的包容性、适应性。2025年7月30日中央政治局会 议强调，增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。《国务院 关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》（以下简称新"国九条" ...

央广网北京12月4日消息（记者 牛谷月）党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济 和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称"十五五"规划建议）提出，加快建设金融强国。这 是"金融强国"首次被写入五年规划建议。 作为国民经济的血脉、国家核心竞争力的重要组成部分，"金融"一词在"十五五"规划建议中被17次提 及，肯定了金融业在国家发展中的重要作用。"金融强国"的首次写入，更是体现了中国金融业发展目标 从大到强的深刻跃迁。 中国经济靠实体经济起家，也要靠实体经济走向未来。田利辉表示，只有让金融资源更加精准地流向实 体经济的关键领域和薄弱环节，引导金融聚焦制造业特别是高端制造、产业链供应链的稳定与升级、小 微企业与乡村振兴等，才能让金融"活水"润泽实体经济沃土，为实现经济高质量发展添动力、增活力。 如果说"向实"是脚踏实地、深植根基，那么"向新"就是引领未来。业内人士指出，科技创新是高质量发 展的核心驱动力。建设金融强国，必须打造一套能够高效支撑创新、敢于承担创新风险的金融体系。 中信证券有关负责人向记者表示，金融机构要围绕新质生产力等关键领域，持续提升对实体企业的全链 条、全生命周期金融服务能力， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of China's capital market system as a strategic deployment by the central government to achieve high-quality development and modernization goals [4][5]. Group 1: Significance of Enhancing Capital Market System - The enhancement of the capital market's inclusiveness and adaptability is crucial for better serving the development of new productive forces, as a vibrant capital market is key to promoting technological and industrial advancements [6]. - It is essential for ensuring that the benefits of development reach the broader population, as the capital market serves as a platform for over 2 billion stock and fund investors to share in economic growth [7]. - This enhancement is a necessary requirement for promoting high-quality development of the capital market and building a strong financial nation, as it will improve market structure and quality, thereby increasing the capital market's core competitiveness and international influence [8]. Group 2: Understanding the Content and Principles - The capital market's long-term positive trends and strong foundations must be recognized, while also addressing existing quality issues, such as the need for better optimization of listed company structures and increased participation of long-term funds [9]. - The approach should focus on supporting technological innovation, meeting diverse investor needs, and enhancing regulatory efficiency to ensure a stable and healthy capital market [9][10]. Group 3: Key Tasks and Measures - Actively develop direct financing methods such as equity and bonds, with a focus on supporting high-quality enterprises and enhancing the service capabilities of the capital market [13]. - Foster more high-quality listed companies by optimizing their structures and encouraging cash dividends and buybacks to enhance investor returns [14]. - Create an attractive environment for long-term investments by improving conditions for various types of long-term capital and promoting public fund reforms [15]. - Enhance the scientific and effective regulation of the capital market to adapt to rapid financial innovations and ensure market stability [15]. - Gradually expand the capital market's openness to improve international competitiveness and facilitate efficient capital flow [16].