Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2260 - 2320. The market is affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. In the short - term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is oscillating weakly, while in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the long - holiday off - season. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short - term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade issues, resulting in a short - term reduction in domestic supply [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short - term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11]. - The global rapeseed output has increased this year, especially the Canadian rapeseed output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed output and the increase in Russia's rapeseed output offset each other. The global geopolitical conflict may rise in the future, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise** - China's post - Spring Festival demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be good [12]. - The rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [12]. - **Likely to Fall** - The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season [12]. - China - Canada trade relations have improved, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [12]. - **Current Main Logic** - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Market Data** - From February 3rd to February 11th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3136, and the trading volume varied from 5.03 - 26.17 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2430 - 2450, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only on February 6th reaching 3 million tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 667 - 696 [13]. - From February 4th to February 11th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2238 - 2288, and the far - month contract 2609 fluctuated between 2284 - 2330. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) was mainly 2430 - 2450 [15]. - From February 3rd to February 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets** - In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio have all shown certain fluctuations. For example, the inventory consumption ratio in 2025 reached 10.56% [19]. - In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 - 2025, the output, total demand, and inventory consumption ratio also fluctuated. The inventory consumption ratio in 2025 was 9.85% [21]. - **Other Information** - Rapeseed meal futures are in a low - level oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level [22]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly [24]. - Imported rapeseed will start to arrive in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [28]. - The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation [30]. - The price of aquatic fish has fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals** - Rapeseed meal has oscillated and rebounded, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market has returned to oscillation. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good. In the short - term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is oscillating weakly, while in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - **Basis** - The spot price is 2440, and the basis is 152, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [9]. - **Inventory** - The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, compared with 44.95 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. Compared with 50.2 million tons in the same period last year, it has decreased by 12.79%, which is a bullish signal [9]. - **Market** - The price is above the 20 - day moving average but is moving downward, showing a neutral signal [9]. - **Main Position** - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, showing a bearish signal [9]. - **Expectation** - Rapeseed meal has bottomed out and rebounded due to the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. Considering that the domestic rapeseed meal has entered the supply - demand off - season recently, it will maintain an oscillating pattern after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2290. Affected by factors such as the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the entry into the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, after the overall negative factors are digested, it will maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 fluctuates in the range of 2230 - 2290. The spot demand for rapeseed meal enters the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to be good. In the short term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is weak in shock, but in the medium term, it maintains range - bound [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the long - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply [11]. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China - Canada trade relations in the short term, and the import of Canadian rapeseed by China is expected to resume [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Good demand for Chinese rapeseed meal is expected after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no inventory pressure [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season, and China is about to resume importing Canadian rapeseed due to improved trade relations [12]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Base difference**: The spot price is 2430, and the base difference is 186, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic inventory of rapeseed meal is 43.78 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% from last week's 44.95 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.79% compared with 50.2 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet**: Data from 2016 - 2025 show changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [19]. - **Domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet**: Data from 2016 - 2025 show changes in initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Price and Related Data - **Rapeseed meal and soybean meal transaction average price and spread**: The data from February 2 to 10 show the transaction average price, trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the spread between them [13]. - **Rapeseed meal futures and spot price summary**: The data from February 3 to 10 show the prices of rapeseed meal futures (main 2605, far - month 2609) and spot (Fujian) [15]. - **Rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics**: From February 2 to 10, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. 3.7 Other Market Conditions - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate at a low level, while the spot is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level [22]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot has narrowed, and the spread of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly [24]. - Imported rapeseed will start to arrive at ports in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [27]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is also at a low level [28]. - The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining the startup [30]. - The price of aquatic fish has fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2210 - 2270. The market was affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations, showing short - term weakening in oscillations, but is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations in the medium term. The overall situation will return to an oscillatory pattern after the digestion of negative factors, and the development of China - Canada trade relations should be closely monitored [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the long - holiday off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Due to the China - Canada trade issue, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased, leading to an expected reduction in domestic supply [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relationship has improved in the short term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually lifted, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. The future situation depends on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia relatively offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China is expected to remain good after the Spring Festival, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered a short - term off - season, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume due to the improvement of China - Canada trade relations [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Transaction data**: From January 30 to February 9, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2430 - 2470 yuan, and the daily trading volume was mostly 0 or 0.5 - 30,000 tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 667 - 691 yuan [13]. - **Price data**: From February 2 to February 9, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main contract RM2605 fluctuated between 2238 - 2276 yuan, the far - month contract RM2609 fluctuated between 2284 - 2297 yuan, and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2430 - 2460 yuan [15]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From January 30 to February 9, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - **Supply - demand balance data**: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance during the same period, the total supply and demand also showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **View**: The rapeseed meal market is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical oscillations. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market has returned to an oscillatory pattern. The spot demand has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good. The short - term market is affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations and shows weak oscillations, while the medium - term remains range - bound [9]. - **Analysis of influencing factors**: The basis is at a premium, which is bullish; the inventory has decreased compared with the previous week and the same period last year, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions have increased and the funds have flowed in, which is bearish [9].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal is in a narrow - range shock. Affected by the soybean meal trend and technical shock consolidation, after the short - term negative news of China's cancellation of Canadian agricultural product export restrictions is digested, the market returns to shock. The spot demand for rapeseed meal enters the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. With the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is weakly shocked in the short term due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations and remains range - bound in the medium term [8]. - After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal rebounds after reaching the bottom. Considering the current supply - demand off - season in China, it will maintain a shock pattern after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade relations [8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Not provided in the report 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the seasonal off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. During the Canadian rapeseed harvesting and export period, the China - Canada trade issue affects the short - term export, reducing the domestic supply expectation [10]. - With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual additional tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. Future decisions will depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the Canadian production is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts in the future, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival; No pressure on the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season; The improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: Imports of rapeseed start to arrive in February, and the import cost has rebounded from the low level [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [20][22]. - Rapeseed meal transaction: Not provided in the report - Aquaculture: The prices of aquatic fish have declined slightly, while the prices of shrimps and shellfish have remained stable [30]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have increased, and the capital has flowed out, which is bearish [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short term, it returns to the range shock. For the single - side operation, RM2605 will fluctuate between 2200 and 2400 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The main operation strategy is range - bound trading [13]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - After the negative impact of the improvement of China - Canada trade relations due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China is digested, rapeseed meal returns to shock. The China - Canada trade relations may return to normal. Rapeseed meal rebounds after reaching the bottom in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the quantity of imported Canadian rapeseed [42]. - The KDJ indicator fluctuates at the mid - low level. The short - term market enters the technical shock consolidation stage. The indicator at the mid - low level limits the space for further decline. Whether it continues to adjust or rebound needs further observation and guidance [42]. - The MACD rebounds from the low level, showing a short - term technical rebound, but the red energy narrows. Whether the subsequent trend continues to rise or fall needs to wait for the policy guidance on Canadian rapeseed imports [42]. - According to the indicators, rapeseed meal is weakly shocked in the short term and strongly shocked in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and the short - term soybean meal trend. The subsequent trend needs further guidance from policies and soybean meal [42]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas; The export of Canadian rapeseed and the domestic processing demand; The arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; The rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and the downstream procurement situation [44]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2210 and 2270. The market was affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of the improvement in China - Canada trade relations, the market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern in the medium term, considering factors such as the off - season demand and low inventory [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in a range of 2210 - 2270. The market is influenced by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports led to short - term negative news being digested, and the market returned to an oscillatory state. Spot demand is in the off - season, but low inventory supports the market. After the Spring Festival, demand is expected to be good. The market is affected by the improvement in China - Canada trade relations, with short - term weak oscillation and medium - term range oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. The Canadian rapeseed harvest and export stage is affected by China - Canada trade issues, reducing short - term domestic supply. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister improved China - Canada trade relations, and the mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled. China's import of Canadian rapeseed is about to resume. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, especially in Canada where the output was higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Good demand for Chinese rapeseed meal is expected after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no inventory pressure [12]. - **Likely to Fall**: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is currently in the off - season, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed is about to resume due to improved trade relations [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures are in a low - level oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, with the spot at a high premium [13][22][24]. - **Inventory**: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease from last week and a 12.79% year - on - year decrease from the same period last year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory is low, and rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Data on the supply - demand balance of domestic rapeseed from 2016 - 2025 and domestic rapeseed meal from 2016 - 2025 are provided, including harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2220 - 2280. It bottomed out and rebounded, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. With the short - term negative impact of China's potential cancellation of Canadian agricultural product export restrictions out of the way, the market has returned to an oscillatory state. Although the spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, low inventory supports the market. Considering the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is expected to remain range - bound in the medium term despite short - term weakening due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the long - holiday off - season. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canada is in the rapeseed harvesting and exporting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. Future actions depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed output and the increase in Russia's rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival and no pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed due to improved China - Canada trade relations [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of Canadian rapeseed imports arriving at ports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From January 28 to February 5, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The spot price of rapeseed meal was relatively strong, and the spot premium remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined from a high level [13][22][24]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory was 43.78 tons, down 2.6% week - on - week from 44.95 tons last week and 12.79% year - on - year compared to 50.2 tons in the same period last year. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance tables of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **View**: Rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded due to Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. Considering the current off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, the market will remain oscillatory after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. - **Strategy**: The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2220 - 2280 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2280. Affected by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and Sino - Canadian trade relations, the short - term trend is weak, but the medium - term will maintain a range - bound pattern. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to be good [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2280. The market is affected by soybean meal trends and technical adjustments. The short - term is affected by the improvement of Sino - Canadian trade relations and shows a weak trend, but the medium - term remains range - bound. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to be good [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. The Sino - Canadian trade issue has reduced the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed, affecting domestic supply expectations. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved short - term Sino - Canadian trade relations, and the import of Canadian rapeseed by China is expected to resume. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the global geopolitical conflict may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival and no inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports by China due to improved Sino - Canadian trade relations. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Trading data**: From January 26 to February 3, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3126 - 3171 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 7.407 - 74.07 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2430 - 2480 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 0.5 million tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 741 yuan/ton to 676 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price data**: From January 27 to February 3, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2605 ranged from 2249 - 2325 yuan/ton, and the far - month contract 2609 ranged from 2287 - 2333 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal (Fujian) ranged from 2430 - 2480 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From January 26 to February 3, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet, from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio showed certain fluctuations. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet, from 2016 - 2025, the output, total supply, total demand, and inventory consumption ratio also changed [19][21]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report 3.6 Other Market Conditions - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the spot was relatively strong, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined from a high level. Imported rapeseed will arrive at ports starting from February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [22][24][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2240 - 2300. Affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations, it is weakly oscillating in the short - term but will maintain range - bound oscillations in the medium - term [9]. - After the overall negative factors are digested, rapeseed meal will still maintain an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. Summary of Each Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Due to China - Canada trade issues, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased, reducing the expected supply in China [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short - term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include good post - Spring Festival demand expectations for Chinese rapeseed meal and the fact that oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors are the short - term off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed due to improved China - Canada trade relations [12]. - The current main logical focus of the market is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From January 23 to February 2, the trading average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2390 - 2480 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0 or relatively small, with a maximum of 33,000 tons on January 23 [13]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian from January 26 to February 2 was between 2430 - 2480 yuan, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2269 - 2325 yuan [15]. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 0 from January 23 to February 2, with a reduction of 15 on January 23 compared to the previous day [17]. - From 2016 - 2025, the domestic rapeseed harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and other data showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 1.71 in 2016 to 10.56 in 2025 [19]. - From 2016 - 2025, the domestic rapeseed meal's initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, and other data also showed fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 4.16 in 2016 to 9.85 in 2025 [21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental aspect: Rapeseed meal oscillated and declined, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market returned to an oscillating state. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low - level inventory supports the market. With good post - Spring Festival demand expectations, it is weakly oscillating in the short - term and range - bound oscillating in the medium - term [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2460 yuan, with a basis of 184 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease from last week's 44.95 tons, and a 12.79% year - on - year decrease from the 50,200 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main positions: The main short positions have increased and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9]. - Expectation: Affected by the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded. After the overall negative impact is digested, it will still maintain an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The price of rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the impact of the easing of China-Canada trade relations. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term and a range-bound pattern in the medium term, influenced by factors such as the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, the off-season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, and the trend of soybean meal [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the report. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off-season after the long holiday, with short-term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand gradually decreasing, suppressing the market outlook. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China-Canada trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply [10]. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China-Canada trade relations in the short term, and the mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled. China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume, and the future development of China-Canada trade relations needs further clarification [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, with the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China is expected to remain good after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short-term off-season, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume due to the improvement of China-Canada trade relations [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: Imports of rapeseed will start arriving in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills has increased slightly, with rapeseed inventory at a low level and rapeseed meal inventory also low [20][22]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Not provided in the report. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [30]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, indicating a bearish sentiment [8]. Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - Futures: In the short term, it will return to a range-bound pattern. For the RM2605 contract, it will fluctuate between 2200 and 2400. Short-term trading or waiting is recommended, with range-bound operations as the main strategy [13]. - Options: Sell out-of-the-money put options [13]. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the bearish impact of the improvement of China-Canada trade relations. The future trend depends on the quantity of imported Canadian rapeseed [41]. - The KDJ indicator has oscillated and declined from a high level, and the short-term market has entered a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium-high level limits the room for further recovery, and it remains to be seen whether it will continue to rebound or decline [41]. - The MACD has rebounded from a low level, with a short-term technical rebound and the green energy turning red. The future trend depends on the import policy of Canadian rapeseed [41]. - The indicators suggest that rapeseed meal will be weakly volatile in the short term and moderately bullish in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and the short-term trend of soybean meal. The future trend needs further guidance from policy and soybean meal [41]. Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [43]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [43]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel-Palestine conflict [43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-02-02 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2250至2310区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国将取消加拿大农产品出口 限制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2470，基差183，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存43.78吨，上周44.95吨，周环比减少2.6%，去年同期50.2万吨，同 比减少12.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...