Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 10 - contract down 0.82%. The geopolitical risk premium has significantly diminished, and the post - peak season outlook for crude oil supply and demand remains relatively loose. The oil market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by a pessimistic supply - demand situation [2] Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with a slight upward bias. The official implementation and intensification of US reciprocal tariffs, concerns about the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed international gold prices to test the important resistance at the upper end of the three - month trading range. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips and be cautious at high levels [3] Copper - Overnight, copper prices declined. The market's reaction to the new round of US tariffs was "mild", and it is mainly tracking macro - economic indicators. Hold previous short positions [4] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. The apparent consumption has fallen during the off - season, but the production of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry's profit is poor. In the medium term, it has certain resilience relative to aluminum prices. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities with AL [6] Alumina - Recently, the operating capacity of alumina has reached a historical high, and the industry's total inventory has increased. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downside space is also relatively limited [7] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The fundamentals are strong overseas and weak domestically. The zinc spot import loss has widened. The Shanghai zinc market has rebounded, and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [8] Lead - The supply of lead ingots has significant regional differences. The inventory of lead has decreased slightly. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on dips [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded. The upstream price support has significantly weakened. The overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [10] Tin - Overnight, tin prices fluctuated and closed higher. It is expected to be in a volatile market. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate has rebounded with heavy trading volume. The total market inventory has slightly declined. After the rebound, the trading value has decreased. Look for high - level short - selling positions [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher. The supply pressure remains, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [13] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed slightly lower. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton for the PS2511 contract [14] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The supply is expected to increase seasonally in August, and the demand is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy - based production restrictions [16] Coke - The coking industry's profit has improved, and the inventory has continued to decline slightly. The coke price is expected to rise in the short term, but the volatility remains high [17] Coking Coal - The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month. The coking coal price is significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The downside space is relatively small, and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [18] Manganese Silicon - The demand for manganese silicon remains at a high level, and the production rate increase is lower than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [19] Silicon Iron - The overall demand for silicon iron is acceptable, and the inventory has slightly increased. It follows the trend of manganese silicon, and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [20] Group 2: Building Materials and Chemicals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices declined. The supply - demand contradiction in the spot market is not significant, and the "anti - involution" theme dominates the market trend. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [15] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil futures are following the downward trend of SC. The low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure in the short term, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread continues to narrow [22] Asphalt - The August production plan has decreased compared to July. The asphalt market is under pressure, and the supply increase space is currently neutral. Pay attention to the actual production release of major refineries [23] Urea - The urea market has declined after the policy became clear. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market focus is on changes in export policies [24] Methanol - The coastal olefin plants' overall operating rate is not high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [25] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene futures price is weak. The market pressure is expected to ease, and there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter. Consider month - spread band trading [26] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increased supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to face high - level pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and strong supply [27] PX and PTA - Affected by the weak oil price, PX and PTA prices have declined. The PTA industry's operating rate is expected to decrease, and pay attention to the possibility of PTA valuation repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has declined due to port inventory pressure. The supply - demand situation has real - world pressure, and overseas plant disruptions have weakened [29] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin - The short - fiber price has followed the raw material price decline. Consider long positions in the medium term. The bottle - grade resin has low processing margins, and capacity over - supply is a long - term pressure [30] Glass - The glass industry's inventory has increased, and the futures price is weak. The market has returned to real - world trading. Pay attention to the market sentiment and processing orders [31] Natural Rubber and Related Products - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is slowly weakening. The inventory has declined. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [32] Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a weak position. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is weak. The futures price is under high - level pressure but is not expected to break the previous low [33] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade tariffs, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has increased. The soybean meal inventory has reached a record high this year. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the soybean meal market is expected to be volatile before the tariff issue is clarified [34] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price of domestic soybean oil has fluctuated significantly. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US biomass diesel policy. Maintain a strategy of long - position allocation on dips for soybean oil and palm oil, and pay attention to market sentiment fluctuations in the medium term [35] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The weather risk for Canadian rapeseed is decreasing, and the domestic rapeseed price is expected to be slightly stronger than the international market. Rapeseed meal may fluctuate weakly, and pay attention to the import prospects of rapeseed [36] Soybean No. 1 - The price of Soybean No. 1 has rebounded from a low level. Pay attention to the weather in domestic soybean - producing areas and policy guidance [37] Corn - The corn futures in Dalian are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom. The new - season corn has a high probability of a bumper harvest, and pay attention to the phased supply in the circulation link [38] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has continued to decline, hitting a new low this year. The futures price of live pigs in the near - term is not optimistic, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity reduction in the long - term [39] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable with a weak trend. The futures market suggests a reverse - spread strategy. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, while the off - season contracts in the second half of this year will be relatively weak [40] Cotton - The US cotton has declined, and the Brazilian cotton export has decreased. The Zhengzhou cotton has stabilized. The new - season Xinjiang cotton has a strong expectation of increased production. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [41] Pulp - The pulp futures have risen slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is still weak. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42] Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market index futures closed down. The domestic equity market's capital sentiment is generally positive in the medium term. Maintain an increased allocation of technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [43] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures are oscillating. Short - term multi - variety hedging should focus on the entry timing of curve steepening [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly regarding new IPOs and sectors such as new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][10]. Core Insights - The asset trading platform remains a clear direction for investment, with a focus on the expansion of various asset transactions and liquidity [3][10]. - The report highlights the positive trend in virtual assets, including stablecoins, with traditional financial institutions increasingly entering this space [3][10]. - Recent upgrades in subsidies for e-commerce and food delivery platforms are expected to benefit sectors like coffee and tea drinks, as well as advertising channels [3][10]. Industry Situation Tracking 1. Education - The Chinese education index increased by 2.47% from July 7 to July 11, outperforming major indices [11][20]. - Notable stock performances include New High Education Group rising by 24.18% and Fenbi increasing by 13.44% [11][20]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure due to macroeconomic impacts, with notable stock movements including Samsonite up by 3.76% and Prada down by 0.99% [22][24]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains highly prosperous, with significant benefits from platform subsidies, while tea drinks also see substantial gains [26][27]. - Luckin Coffee opened 373 new stores, with a focus on both first and second-tier markets [32]. 4. E-commerce and Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index saw a slight increase of 0.18%, with stocks like Beike and Dingdong rising by 6.34% and 3.85% respectively [31][36]. - The competition in the e-commerce sector remains fierce, with significant subsidy initiatives impacting profitability [31][38]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index rose by 2.2%, with stocks like NetEase Cloud Music and iQIYI showing positive performance [37][42]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $374.04 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 8.8% and 17.9% respectively [41][43]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of regulatory frameworks for virtual assets in both the US and Hong Kong [48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3500 points, and analyzes the underlying factors driving this market movement [3][12]. Market Temperature - The current market indices show varying recovery levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to early 2022 levels, and the CSI 2000 Index recovering to April 2017 levels. Other indices like the CSI 300, CSI 800, and ChiNext have also rebounded to mid-March levels, while the Hong Kong market has seen significant gains since September 2022 [4][12]. Factors Behind Market Performance - The market's upward trend is attributed to a combination of domestic and international factors. Internationally, the U.S.-China tariff situation has stabilized, and there are expectations of potential interest rate cuts in the U.S., which could provide more room for monetary policy easing in China. Domestically, there is a growing call for policies to support economic recovery, particularly in the real estate sector, despite ongoing economic pressures [12][13]. Structural Characteristics of the Market - The current market structure is described as "barbell," with small-cap stocks and financials supporting the market, while large-cap growth stocks have shown less sustained performance. The decline in risk-free interest rates is driving capital towards equities, with institutional investors increasingly favoring banks and long-term dividend-paying companies [14]. Future Market Outlook - Investors are advised to monitor the performance of large-cap growth stocks and the overall market sentiment. Key investment opportunities are identified in new technologies such as AI, robotics, military technology, and solid-state batteries, which could drive sector rotation [14][15]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to maintain a diversified asset allocation strategy, considering a minimum of 25% and a maximum of 75% in equities. Given the rising uncertainty in the market, a systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, is recommended to mitigate timing risks. Additionally, investors should review their portfolios to ensure they are not holding onto underperforming assets while selling profitable ones [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights President Trump's relatively positive stance on U.S.-China relations, stating, "We get along very well with China" despite ongoing trade tensions and tariffs [1][3] - Trump acknowledged that China will pay significant tariffs but emphasized the existing trade deficit, indicating that China understands this situation [3] - In discussing the TikTok acquisition, Trump mentioned that a group of wealthy investors is interested in purchasing the platform, but it requires approval from the Chinese side [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's interview downplayed accusations against China regarding aggressive behavior and highlighted that the U.S. also engages in similar actions, suggesting a mutual understanding of the "dirty" nature of global politics [1][4] - The article notes that recent communications from the White House indicate progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with an official stating that both sides have reached an agreement on expediting rare earth exports to the U.S. [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that both countries' economic teams have maintained close communication following a recent meeting in London, aiming to solidify the consensus reached by the leaders of both nations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's monetary policy and credit data, indicating a mixed outlook with signs of both improvement and concern in various sectors of the economy [3][4][11]. Monetary Policy and Credit Data - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, significantly lower than the expected 802.6 billion and the previous year's 950 billion [3][4]. - New social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion, exceeding expectations and previous values, indicating a better-than-expected performance [11]. - The growth rate of M2 was 7.9%, slightly below expectations, while M1 growth improved to 2.3% [3][12]. Sector Analysis - The residential short-term loans have seen negative growth for two consecutive months, reflecting weak consumer spending, while medium to long-term loans have turned positive, aligning with real estate sales trends [5][6]. - Corporate short-term financing has increased significantly, indicating improved cash flow pressures, while medium to long-term loans have continued to show less growth due to weakened investment sentiment amid tariff disturbances [9][11]. Government and Corporate Financing - Government bond financing was a major support for social financing, with 1.46 trillion issued, while corporate bond financing also showed positive growth, suggesting that corporate financing conditions have not deteriorated significantly [13]. - The article highlights that the overall credit expansion is still heavily influenced by fiscal policies, with a need for continued policy support to stimulate demand [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China economic and trade consultation in London has yielded positive outcomes, enhancing bilateral economic relations and setting the stage for further cooperation [1] Group 1: Market Insights - The China Securities A500 Index (中证A500) is designed using an "industry balance" approach, representing the top 500 securities by market capitalization and liquidity, covering 100% of the second-level industries and 97% of the third-level industries in the China Securities market [1] - The A500 Index includes approximately 50% traditional value sectors (finance, materials, consumer, energy, public utilities) and 50% emerging growth sectors (industrial, information technology, communication services, healthcare) [2] - Historical performance shows that as of May 30, 2025, the A500 Index has increased by 350.35% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 and CSI 800 indices, which recorded returns of 284.02% and 314.03% respectively [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider the China Securities A500 ETF (159338) for exposure to core A-share assets, with a scale of 19.742 billion yuan as of June 10, 2025, making it the largest among the first batch of A500 ETFs [3] - The A500 ETF has the highest average daily trading volume among the first batch of A500 ETFs, indicating strong liquidity [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and the implications of U.S.-China relations on interest rates and liquidity in the financial system [1][3][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Trends**: There is a consensus that global economic decoupling and fragmentation are long-term trends, with short-term tariff adjustments unlikely to reverse the overall direction of U.S.-China relations [1][7]. 2. **Interest Rate Projections**: - A complete removal of reciprocal tariffs could lead to an estimated interest rate rebound of about 12 basis points, but the impact is expected to be limited [1][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to have an upper limit adjustment to 1.75% if tariffs are fully removed, although current macroeconomic conditions do not support a strong rebound to 1.4% [6][8]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: - June has seen improved liquidity conditions, with bond market sentiment turning positive and the 2001 bond effectively breaking below 1.4% [1][4]. - The negative factors that suppressed the market in May are dissipating, indicating clear trend opportunities [4][5]. 4. **Central Bank Policies**: - The central bank is maintaining a tightening stance, which, along with a recovering real estate sector, supports market sentiment [8][9]. - Recent announcements of reverse repos by the central bank aim to stabilize market expectations and signal liquidity support [10]. 5. **Future Liquidity Expectations**: - There is a shift towards a more accommodative liquidity outlook, with the DR001 rate breaking below 1.4%, indicating enhanced liquidity sentiment [2][12]. - The central bank's actions suggest potential for further liquidity increases if market conditions remain tight [11][12]. 6. **Investment Opportunities**: - The outlook for medium to long-term bond funds is positive, with expected returns of 2.5-3% this year, encouraging investors to seize current market trends [13][14]. Other Important Insights - The impact of U.S.-China tariffs on market reactions has diminished, with the market forming a consensus that long-term trends will prevail despite short-term fluctuations [3][7]. - Structural tariffs and trade measures, such as Section 301 and Section 232, continue to pose risks to the economic relationship between the U.S. and China [7][9]. - The central bank's flexible approach to liquidity management reflects its responsiveness to uncertainties in U.S.-China relations and domestic economic pressures [10].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has surged past the $100,000 mark, driven by positive macroeconomic factors including a historic trade agreement between the US and UK, and optimistic signals regarding US-China trade negotiations, leading to a significant increase in its market capitalization, which has surpassed $2 trillion, making it the fifth largest asset globally [1][2][5][11]. Group 1: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin's price reached a high of $104,361 on May 9, marking its third breach of the $100,000 threshold since December 5 of the previous year [1]. - The total market capitalization of Bitcoin increased by nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, successfully reclaiming the $2 trillion mark and surpassing Amazon's market cap [2]. - Bitcoin's recent performance has shown a degree of decoupling from traditional tech stocks, reinforcing its narrative as a distinct asset class and "digital gold" [2]. Group 2: US-UK Trade Agreement - The US and UK have reached a significant trade agreement, which includes reducing tariffs on US exports to the UK, such as a reduction of the 25% tariff on US cars and the elimination of tariffs on steel and aluminum products [5][6]. - This agreement is expected to generate $6 billion in external revenue for the US and create $5 billion in new export opportunities for American farmers and producers [6]. - The positive sentiment from this agreement has boosted investor confidence, contributing to a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The UK government is advancing its cryptocurrency regulatory framework, aiming to establish clear laws to enhance investor confidence and consumer protection [7][8]. - The proposed legislation includes the regulation of stablecoins and the operation of cryptocurrency exchanges, with a focus on fostering innovation while ensuring safety [7]. - The UK Treasury plans to collaborate with the US to support the growth of the cryptocurrency industry, signaling a commitment to international regulatory coordination [8]. Group 4: US-China Trade Relations - The market is closely watching the unresolved US-China tariff issues, with President Trump suggesting a potentially positive outcome in upcoming trade negotiations [11]. - A resolution in US-China trade relations could significantly boost global market risk appetite, potentially igniting a new bull market for Bitcoin as it is increasingly viewed as an alternative asset [11][12]. - The complexity and uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations remain, but any positive signals could act as catalysts for Bitcoin price increases [11].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 6th, the A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13% to 3316.11, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.84% to 10082.34, and the ChiNext Index up 1.97% to 1986.41. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.3362 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended strongly on May 6th, closing at 3808.54, up 37.97 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - On May 6th, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1501.6 yuan, down 48.4 [1]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of independent coking plants increased steadily with profit and hot metal growth, and the start - up of steel - enterprise - affiliated coking plants was stable. The profit per ton of independent coking plants was close to the break - even line, so the motivation for production reduction was weak. In terms of demand, the average daily output of hot metal last week was 2.4542 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons, showing resilient rigid demand. However, due to crude steel production restrictions and Sino - US tariff issues, the market was worried about steel demand, and speculative demand weakened. In terms of inventory, ports and independent coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The total inventory decreased slightly, and inventory was transferred from upstream to downstream [1]. Coking Coal - During the holiday, coking coal showed a flat performance. Recently, the news of steel production restrictions has depressed the sentiment of coking coal. On the supply side, the domestic coal supply continued to resume production, with the operating rate of 523 sample mines at 89.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased due to environmental protection restrictions, and the import volume of seaborne coal decreased due to factors such as profit. Overall, it showed a trend of "increasing domestically and decreasing externally", but the total supply was still relatively abundant [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short - term decline, short - sellers covered their positions at low prices, supporting the continued rebound of US sugar on Monday. Supported by the rise of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on Tuesday, but the decline in the spot price limited the upward space of the futures price. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated slightly [2]. Rubber - Boosted by the rising stock market, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday. Affected by the large short - term increase and technical factors, the night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher. According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month [3]. Palm Oil - On May 6th, palm oil opened low and moved lower following the external market. The main contract P2509 closed with a downward - gap candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 7960, the lowest was 7918, and the closing price was 7932, down 0.53% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday, affected by concerns about international trade tensions and the decline of soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures fluctuated on Tuesday, with the M2509 main contract closing at 2915 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. As imported Brazilian soybeans are unloaded at factories, the operating rate of oil mills will increase rapidly, and domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to rise. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Live Hogs - On Tuesday, live hog futures fluctuated, with the LH2509 main contract closing at 13,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36%. Currently, the market is in the off - season of demand, and the overall consumer demand is weak. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding side has accelerated, and the supply of live hogs in the market has increased. The live hog futures may fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Shanghai Copper - Global economic uncertainty has intensified, but in April, the composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to expand, providing some support for copper prices. At the same time, global copper mine supply has been affected, and China's economic recovery has led to an increase in copper demand. Under the combined effect of supply - demand factors and capital inflow, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed slightly higher [6]. Cotton - On the night of Tuesday, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 12,835 yuan/ton. On May 7th, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 76 lots compared with the previous trading day. The emergence rate of cotton in Xinjiang was good [6]. Iron Ore - On May 6th, the main contract of iron ore 2509 fluctuated and closed flat at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore decreased due to the maintenance of some port berths in Australia. Steel mills' rigid demand for replenishment supported the further increase of hot metal output, but the room for further increase was limited. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On May 6th, the main contract of asphalt 2506 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.32%, closing at 3361 yuan. The planned asphalt production in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Affected by holidays, asphalt shipments decreased, and social inventory was high. Recently, international oil prices have fallen sharply, weakening the cost support. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Logs - On Tuesday, the 2507 log contract opened at 784, with a minimum of 783, a maximum of 793, and closed at 789.5, with a daily increase of 521 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803. On May 6th, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and outbound volume increased slightly. Overall demand was still weak, and there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Steel - On May 6th, rb2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3196 yuan/ton. The hot metal output of long - process steelmaking reached the peak and then declined this week, and the operating rate of electric furnaces also decreased slightly. The output of rebar decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years. The actual demand was lower than expected. Currently, there is no new policy information, and the upward driving force of steel prices is weak. Steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Alumina - On May 6th, ao2509 closed at 2675 yuan/ton. With the increase in bauxite supply, bauxite prices still have some room to fall, which is negative for alumina prices. The situation of production reduction, resumption, and new capacity release coexists. There is still capacity to resume production in Australia and India overseas. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase significantly in the future [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 6th, al2506 closed at 19,785 yuan/ton. The easing of Sino - US relations on tariff issues stimulated the rise of US stocks and drove up the price of aluminum in the external market. However, the weakening of aluminum demand in the off - season restricted the upward range of aluminum prices. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,184 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,700 - 68,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 67,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 - 65,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 65,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate is expected to remain in oversupply in May, and its price may maintain a weak - shock trend in the short term [10].