美突袭委内瑞拉,国际局势再度紧张,主力合约偏强震荡,关注二月运价走势。 | | | | 12月29日 | 1月2日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1742.64点，较上期上涨9.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1296.7点，较上期上涨10.40% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1258.31点，较上期上涨9.96% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.41点，较上期上涨35.3% 12月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1743.56点，较上期上涨38.94% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1656.32点，较上期上涨103.4点 | 12月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1690USD/TEU，较上期上涨10.24% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1124.73点，较上期上涨0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2188USD/FEU, 较上期上涨9.84% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CC ...

2025年12月11日 賃运日报 (航运研究小组) 主力合约收付全部跌幅，建议全部止盈，符合日报预期，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 "，并强烈谴责其将联合国工作人员移交特别刑事法院的做法。他强调，包括也门籍员工在内的联合国工作人员，在履行公务所涉行为方面依法享有司法豁 免权。发言人说，"我们敦促也门胡塞武装撤回相关移交决定，并立即释放所有被拘押的联合国、非政府组织和外交人员"。 (央视新闻) 财联社12月9日电，据新华社报道，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰版抗运动（哈马斯）高级官员胡萨姆·巴德兰9日发表声明说，关于加沙停火第二阶段的任何讨论，都必 须以谈判斡旋方、美国及所有相关方对以色列施压，以确保第一阶段协议所有条款全面落实为前提。声明驳斥了以军方近日关于"黄线"是加沙地带"新边 界"的说法，表示这番言论暴露了以色列未能遵守停火协议条款的事实。声明说，以色列仍阻止加沙地带南部拉法口岸双向通行，阻挠为加沙地带流离失所 者准备的帐篷进入，削减进入加沙地带的人道主义援助物资数量，同时继续在加沙地带条数。声明说，只要以色列继续违反协议，加沙停火第二阶段就不可 能启动。 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 SCF ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **government bond futures** market in China, detailing the mechanics, strategies, and key indicators relevant to trading in this sector. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Contract Specifications**: Government bond futures are categorized into four types based on maturity: 2-year (200 million RMB), 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year (100 million RMB). Daily price fluctuation limits are set at ±0.5%, ±1.2%, ±2%, and ±3.5% respectively [1][4]. 2. **Pricing Mechanism**: There is a reciprocal pricing relationship between the government bond spot market and the futures market. Technical analysis can predict trends and inform spot market transactions [5]. 3. **Key Indicators**: Important indicators include the main contract, cheapest to deliver (CTD) conversion factor, basis, net basis, bank repurchase rate, trading volume, and open interest. These indicators help assess market activity and identify arbitrage opportunities [8][9]. 4. **Basis and Net Basis**: The basis is defined as the difference between the spot price and the futures price adjusted by the conversion factor. A positive basis indicates futures are at a discount, while a negative basis indicates a premium. The net basis accounts for holding period returns, providing a clearer picture of investment profitability [3][13]. 5. **Trading Strategies**: Common strategies include speculation, hedging, and arbitrage. Hedging is primarily used by institutions like funds and banks to mitigate interest rate risk [27][28]. 6. **CTD and Conversion Factor**: The CTD is the least expensive bond that can be delivered under a futures contract. The conversion factor standardizes different bonds to a nominal rate of 3% for valuation purposes [11][12]. 7. **Market Sentiment Analysis**: Market sentiment can be gauged through open interest and trading volume. An increase in long positions may indicate bullish sentiment, while an increase in short positions may suggest bearish sentiment [16][26]. 8. **Arbitrage Opportunities**: Arbitrage strategies include basis arbitrage, curve arbitrage, inter-period arbitrage, and cross-product arbitrage. These strategies exploit price discrepancies between futures and spot markets [33][36]. 9. **Impact of Bank Repo Rate**: The bank repurchase rate is crucial for determining the profitability of a positive spread trading strategy, influencing both funding costs and overall returns [14][15]. 10. **Settlement Price Calculation**: The settlement price is derived from a weighted average of transaction prices and volumes throughout the trading day [17]. Additional Important Content - **Contract Rollovers**: The main contract typically undergoes a rollover process around the 18th to 20th of the month prior to expiration, affecting liquidity and trading volume [9]. - **Minimum Trading Margin**: The minimum trading margin varies by contract type, influencing leverage ratios. For instance, the 2-year contract requires a margin of 0.5% of the contract value [4]. - **Market Behavior Indicators**: Observing the nature of trades (opening vs. closing positions) can provide insights into market trends and potential price movements [22][24]. This summary encapsulates the essential aspects of the government bond futures market as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and market participants.