Economic Overview - The recent CPI report is described as "Swiss cheese," indicating it is incomplete and lacks comprehensive data [1] - Core commodities prices, excluding energy and food, are rising at a rate of 1.4%, which is unusual as this category typically deflates over time [2] - Services prices, excluding energy, are increasing at a slower pace of 3%, indicating a disinflationary trend, particularly driven by shelter cost disinflation [3][4] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - The government has limited levers to reduce prices, with alleviating tariff cost pressures being a key mechanism to ease inflationary pressures on consumers [9][10] - The affordability crisis is influenced by both prices and wages; if wages rise faster than prices, consumer spending can be supported despite higher costs [8] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.9% next year, supported by three fragile pillars: affluent consumers, AI investment, and asset price appreciation [11][14] - There is a risk of a potential AI-related bubble that could negatively impact stock market confidence and consumer spending, leading to reduced investment and hiring [12][13] Investment Trends - Investment in AI is anticipated to grow, not just among major players but also among firms integrating AI into their strategies, which will drive stronger growth in those sectors [16] - The economic outlook is characterized by increasing polarization, with affluent consumers and AI-focused businesses driving most spending and investment [17]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 亚马逊(AMZN.O)美股盘前上涨1.2%，有报道称亚马逊正在商谈向OpenAI投资约100亿美元。 ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a decline last Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping approximately 1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.5% and 1% respectively [1] - This week, the Nasdaq Index is down about 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Index has risen over 1%. The S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.6% but closed at a historical high on Thursday [1] Federal Reserve and Leadership Speculation - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third rate cut of 2025 and the most contentious decision of the year, with three members dissenting [2] - Market attention is shifting towards potential candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh being prominent names. As of last Friday, Hassett had a 73% probability of being nominated, while Walsh's chances increased to 39% after a recent report [2][3] Corporate Earnings and Market Sentiment - Major companies such as Micron, Accenture, Nike, FedEx, and Darden Restaurants are set to report their quarterly earnings this week, which will be closely monitored by investors [1] - Oracle's stock fell over 10% after announcing that AI-related costs would exceed expectations, while Broadcom's earnings report indicated profit pressures, leading to an 11% drop in its stock [5] AI Investment Trends - The recent surge in debt issuance by large companies, particularly in the investment-grade bond market, has reached $75 billion in September and October, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of $37 billion per year [5] - Analysts suggest that the next major beneficiaries of AI technology may not be chip manufacturers or large-scale companies, but rather businesses that implement this technology to enhance growth and productivity [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Disney (DIS.N) has seen a 2% increase in stock price following the announcement of a $1 billion investment in OpenAI and the introduction of its cartoon characters into SORA [1] Group 2 - Disney's investment in OpenAI amounts to $1 billion, indicating a significant commitment to artificial intelligence and technology [1] - The integration of Disney's cartoon characters into SORA suggests a strategic move to enhance brand presence in digital platforms [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should base its decisions on economic data rather than pre-announcing specific interest rate paths, as stated by Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council [1] - Hassett indicated that the current target range for the federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4%, and there is a strong market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] - He praised Jerome Powell for successfully coordinating opinions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reach a consensus on the rate cut, despite initial disagreements among members [1] Group 2 - Hassett reiterated that investments in artificial intelligence could lead to a positive supply shock similar to the computer technology boom of the 1990s, which would allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a hotter economy [2] - He noted that the bond market has improved significantly since the beginning of the year, with a decline in yields since 2025, although some volatility remains due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions [2] Group 3 - Regarding the position of Federal Reserve Chair, Hassett expressed willingness to assist if chosen, while market expectations for future rate cuts have decreased, with predictions now suggesting two rate cuts in 2026, down from three previously anticipated [3] - The market reacted negatively to Hassett's comments, with major stock indices closing lower, indicating a more hawkish tone than expected [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that it is "irresponsible" for the Federal Reserve to announce a specific path for interest rate policy over the next six months, highlighting the need for decisions to be based on economic data [3][4] - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, believes that the Federal Reserve should continue to adjust rates cautiously while closely monitoring economic data, indicating a consensus for a rate cut this week [3][5] - The market's expectations for future Federal Reserve easing actions have decreased, with the latest predictions suggesting two rate cuts by 2026, down from three cuts anticipated a month ago [5] Group 2 - Hassett reiterated that investments in artificial intelligence could lead to a "positive supply shock" similar to the computer technology boom of the 1990s, which allowed the Federal Reserve to maintain a slightly hotter economy [4] - He noted that the bond market has "significantly improved" compared to earlier this year, with a decline in yields since 2025, although some volatility remains due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming actions [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is nearly 100%, as indicated by futures markets [3]

Core Insights - The OECD predicts that the interest rate cut cycle in developed economies will end by the end of 2026, indicating that central banks are nearing the limits of their policy easing capacity [1][3][15] - The report highlights a significant trend where many central banks will need to maintain interest rates above pre-pandemic levels to control inflation, primarily due to elevated public debt levels [3][7][15] Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates only twice before the end of 2026, maintaining the federal funds rate between 3.25% and 3.5% in 2027 [1][5] - Other developed economies show a divergence in monetary policy, with the Eurozone and Canada having no further room for rate cuts, while the UK is expected to halt cuts in the first half of 2026 [5][15] - Japan is an exception, with stable inflation around 2%, leading to a gradual tightening of its monetary policy [5][7] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Despite tightening monetary policies, the OECD has raised growth forecasts for major economies, predicting a global GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025, slowing to 2.9% in 2026, and rebounding to 3.1% in 2027 [9][15] - The rapid growth of AI investments is identified as a key driver of industrial production in the U.S. and some Asian economies [9][15] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Challenges - The OECD warns that many governments should utilize the current stable period to address rising debt burdens, as long-term spending pressures in healthcare, climate transition, and pensions will significantly constrain fiscal policy space [1][13][15] - Only a few countries plan to significantly tighten fiscal policies in the next two years, with some, like Germany, having limited room for debt expansion to support sustainable growth in defense spending [13][15]

宏 观 研 究 | | | 宏观经济分析报告 chunj 战术上的收敛，目标内的平衡 | | | | | | ――2026 | 年宏观经济展望 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 周喜 | | SAC NO： | S1150511010017 | | 2025 年 月 | 12 | 3 | 日 | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | 周喜[Table_IndInvest] | |  | 海外经济及政策环境 | | | | | | | 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 j ...

Core Insights - The recent U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has created a "data fog" that complicates decision-making for the Federal Reserve and markets, reflecting systemic governance issues within the U.S. economy [1][5] - The shutdown has led to significant economic losses and a halt in the collection and publication of key economic data, resulting in a "data vacuum" that hampers the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions [1][2] Economic Data Impact - The lack of reliable official data has increased uncertainty for businesses in their investment, hiring, and pricing strategies, while also affecting consumer confidence and potentially leading to panic among the public [2] - During the shutdown, the absence of U.S. economic data directly impacted global central banks and multinational corporations, posing challenges for global economic coordination [2] Political and Statistical Integrity - Domestic political polarization has turned data statistics into a tool for partisan conflict, undermining the credibility of U.S. economic data [2] - Recent revisions to employment data have raised concerns about the objectivity of official statistics, further complicating policy-making [2] Labor Market and Consumer Sentiment - Despite a reported increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since November 2021, indicating underlying pressures in the labor market [3] - Consumer confidence has declined, with the index falling to 51.0 in November from 53.6 in October, reflecting frustrations over high prices and stagnant income [3] Structural Economic Issues - The U.S. economy faces significant structural challenges, including a reliance on AI investment for GDP growth, while many sectors remain sluggish [4] - The concentration of wealth among capital and tech giants has led to a disconnect between macroeconomic data and the lived experiences of ordinary Americans, who struggle with rising costs [4] Debt and Governance Challenges - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38.3 trillion, with projections indicating that debt-to-GDP ratios could reach historical highs by 2027, exacerbating issues in critical areas like infrastructure and education [4] - The inability to achieve consensus on debt control, data independence, and social equity may hinder U.S. economic progress and have broader implications for the global economy [5]

Core Insights - China has become a focal point for global investors, with a consensus that the market is worth investing in, shifting the focus to strategies for smart allocation [1] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a critical juncture for overseas capital reassessing and reallocating to Chinese assets, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and the AI revolution [1][6] Investment Themes - Three main investment themes favored by foreign capital include technological innovation, overseas industrial chains, and valuation recovery [2] - AI is highlighted as a significant theme, with Chinese tech giants expected to perform well due to breakthroughs in AI, a robust domestic market, and supportive policies [2][8] - The shift of Chinese companies from merely exporting products to establishing overseas production and supply chains is seen as a flexible investment opportunity [3] Valuation Recovery - Many A-share companies related to consumption and real estate are currently undervalued compared to historical averages, presenting potential for valuation recovery if these sectors stabilize [3][6] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to positively impact certain industries by improving product pricing and profitability [4] Positive Signals - Since 2025, there has been a noticeable acceleration in foreign capital reassessing Chinese assets, with positive signals emerging from policy, corporate performance, and funding [6] - Institutional investors have shown increased interest in Chinese equities, with significant inflows into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6][7] Market Outlook - Despite recent market fluctuations, many foreign institutions believe the long-term bullish trend for A-shares remains intact, viewing current volatility as an opportunity for strategic positioning [7] - The ongoing AI revolution is expected to continue driving growth opportunities in related sectors, supported by a likely shift towards looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [7][8]