格隆汇2月5日｜美国劳工统计局：将1月份非农就业报告的发布日期安排至2月11日发布；1月份CPI报 告发布日期重新安排至2月13日发布。此外，将于2月5日发布12月职位空缺和劳动力流动报告。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is showing high growth with declining inflation, as noted by Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council [2] - Wage growth is outpacing price growth, leading to significant tax refunds for American taxpayers next year [2] - There is considerable room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to Hassett [2] Group 2 - The current trading price of silver TD is reported at 15,107 yuan per kilogram, down 2.31% from the opening price of 15,420 yuan per kilogram [1] - The highest price reached today was 15,499 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest was 15,030 yuan per kilogram [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a neutral to bearish state for silver TD, with support levels identified between 14,500 and 15,000, and resistance levels between 15,400 and 16,000 [2]

Economic Overview - The recent CPI report is described as "Swiss cheese," indicating it is incomplete and lacks comprehensive data [1] - Core commodities prices, excluding energy and food, are rising at a rate of 1.4%, which is unusual as this category typically deflates over time [2] - Services prices, excluding energy, are increasing at a slower pace of 3%, indicating a disinflationary trend, particularly driven by shelter cost disinflation [3][4] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - The government has limited levers to reduce prices, with alleviating tariff cost pressures being a key mechanism to ease inflationary pressures on consumers [9][10] - The affordability crisis is influenced by both prices and wages; if wages rise faster than prices, consumer spending can be supported despite higher costs [8] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.9% next year, supported by three fragile pillars: affluent consumers, AI investment, and asset price appreciation [11][14] - There is a risk of a potential AI-related bubble that could negatively impact stock market confidence and consumer spending, leading to reduced investment and hiring [12][13] Investment Trends - Investment in AI is anticipated to grow, not just among major players but also among firms integrating AI into their strategies, which will drive stronger growth in those sectors [16] - The economic outlook is characterized by increasing polarization, with affluent consumers and AI-focused businesses driving most spending and investment [17]

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release a combined non-farm payroll report for October and November, but key details, including the October unemployment rate, will be missing due to the government shutdown, marking the first time since 1948 that such data will not be published [1][2] Non-Farm Payroll Report - The October employment report has been canceled, but the non-farm employment numbers and other details will be included in the November report [1] - The non-farm payroll report is based on two surveys, which typically occur during the week that includes the 12th of the month [1] - Employers continued to submit responses electronically during the government shutdown, allowing the BLS to calculate October's non-farm employment numbers [2] - Economists predict that the non-farm employment numbers for November will increase by 50,000 jobs, following an increase of 119,000 jobs in September [2] Unemployment Rate - Due to the lack of a household survey in October, there will be no unemployment rate report for that month, which is unprecedented since the data series began [2] - The unemployment rate for November is projected to be 4.4%, unchanged from September [3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report - The BLS will not release the overall CPI or core CPI for October due to the inability to collect necessary data during the shutdown [5] - The agency indicated that the number of indices that can be published for October will be very limited, and specific guidance for data users regarding the missing data will not be provided [5] - Goldman Sachs warned that the volatility of the CPI series may increase, as price collection in the latter half of November could lead to lower price readings due to holiday sales [5]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11821, with a current price of 11852, down 0.77% from the opening price of 11715, and a trading range between a high of 11977 and a low of 11689, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The Shanghai silver market showed a significant trading range last week between 12300 and 11700, suggesting a continued low-level oscillation, with a focus on the 12300 level for potential breakout or consolidation [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to data collection issues stemming from the government shutdown, with the November report now scheduled for December 18 [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting will occur before the release of key economic data, including the November CPI and non-farm payroll reports, which may impact monetary policy decisions [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated a dovish stance based on recent labor market data, suggesting support for a 25 basis point rate cut if his vote becomes critical [3]

Economic Outlook - The upcoming week will feature significant tech earnings on Wednesday and Thursday, alongside a crucial meeting between US and Chinese leaders on Thursday [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision is anticipated, but the ongoing government shutdown complicates data availability for October, leading to uncertainty for November as well [2][9] Labor Market Insights - The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment forecast estimates an unemployment rate of 4.35% for October, showing little change from September's 4.3% [3] - Despite the lack of comprehensive data due to the shutdown, there is no indication of a significant deterioration in the labor market [4] Data Collection Challenges - The Federal Reserve's ability to gather accurate data is hindered, with the next meeting scheduled for December 10, leaving a gap in data collection for potentially one to three months [9][12] - The reliance on electronic sources for job data may allow for some estimates, but the unemployment number remains challenging to obtain due to its dependence on telephone surveys [8] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - There is a possibility of obtaining a reasonable estimate for the October CPI report if the government shutdown ends early in November, as only 2.5% of the sample is needed for a reasonable estimate [6] - Consumer confidence and jobless claims data will be monitored, although the overall data week is expected to be light due to cancellations [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's September import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports in US dollars up 8.3% year - on - year and imports up 7.4% year - on - year [7][8]. - Glass is short - term weak and medium - term in a volatile market; sugar is under pressure due to supply surplus expectations [9][10]. - Different commodities have different price trends, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, silver approaching a 50 - high, etc. [13] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Today's Discovery - China's September import and export data in US dollars showed strong growth, with export growth at a six - month high and import growth at a 17 - month high. The acceleration of imports may be related to policy - based financial tools and project starts [7][8]. 3.2 Director's Top Picks Glass - Short - term: Market has large differences on future production cuts, downstream has sufficient inventory, and real - estate market is weak, so the spot market is weak. - Medium - term: Anti - deflation and anti - involution policies are still in the window period, and the previous high futures premium has changed, so be cautious at low levels [9]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production and export situation: As of September 16, 25/26 season, cumulative sugar production was 3039 million tons, and September exports decreased. - India has a large - scale production increase expectation, with an expected 3490 million tons in the 25/26 season. - China's sugar imports remain at a high level, with an expected import volume of 500 million tons in both 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [10]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - Gold continues to hit new highs, and silver approaches a 50 - high. The report provides detailed price, trading volume, inventory, and other data [13][17]. Base Metals - Copper: Market sentiment improves, and prices rise. - Zinc: Weakly volatile. - Lead: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts. - Aluminum: Ranges in a volatile market; alumina's center of gravity moves down; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [13][23][26]. Other Metals and Minerals - Nickel: Macro - sentiment turns bearish, and prices are low - level volatile. - Stainless steel: Macro and reality jointly exert pressure, and the lower - cost limit restricts price elasticity. - Carbonate lithium: Warehouse receipts are largely liquidated, providing upward momentum. - Industrial silicon: Limited upside space. - Polysilicon: There are many self - discipline meetings this week, warehouse receipts are slightly liquidated, and market sentiment may improve [13][39][42]. Building Materials and Energy - Iron ore: Widely volatile. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weak reality and weakening expectations may lead to a slight decline in steel prices. - Coke and coking coal: Macro - expectations are fluctuating, and prices are weakly volatile. - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [13][51][60]. Chemicals - PX and PTA: Weak in the medium term. - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [13][66].

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 45,479.6 points, down 1.9%; the S&P 500 at 6,552.51 points, down 2.71%; and the Nasdaq Composite at 22,204.43 points, down 3.56%. For the week, the Dow fell 2.73%, the Nasdaq 2.53%, and the S&P 500 2.43% [5] - European stock indices also experienced declines on October 10, with the FTSE 100 in London closing at 9,427.47 points, down 0.86%; the CAC 40 in Paris at 7,918.0 points, down 1.53%; and the DAX in Frankfurt at 24,241.46 points, down 1.5% [6] Commodity Insights - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude futures down 4.24% and Brent crude futures down 3.82%. This decline led to a rise in safe-haven assets, with 10-year US Treasury yields dropping by over 10 basis points [7] Corporate News - Tesla launched a lower-priced version of the Model Y in Europe, starting at €39,990 (approximately $46,304) in Germany, which is about €5,000 cheaper than previous versions. This move aims to stimulate demand in a sluggish market. The vehicle will face competition from smaller electric cars priced below €35,000 from European and Chinese brands [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September on October 24 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time [1] Group 1 - The CPI report is a key economic indicator that reflects inflation trends in the U.S. economy [1]

Core Insights - PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding indicates that tariff-related pressures are reflected in certain areas of the CPI report, primarily in the goods sector, with a slow transmission process [1] - Aside from this, inflationary pressures appear to be very manageable, which Wilding views as a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Indicators** - Tariff-related pressures are included in the CPI report, mainly affecting the goods sector [1] - The transmission of these pressures is noted to be slow [1] - **Inflation Outlook** - Overall inflationary pressures are considered to be very controllable [1] - This situation is interpreted as a favorable sign for the Federal Reserve [1]