美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特对11月CPI报告表示欢迎，称美国经济正呈现出高增长且通胀下降 的态势。他称："我并不是说我们要宣布在价格问题上取得了胜利，但这是一份好得令人吃惊的CPI报 告。" 今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于15147一线上方，今日开盘于15420元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报15107元/千克，下跌2.31%，最高触及15499元/千克，最低下探15030元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 哈塞特称，工资增长快于物价增长，美国纳税人明年将看到大笔退税，政府将帮助降低抵押贷款利率。 他称："美联储有很大的降息空间。" 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，昨日白银td小幅上涨但涨幅减弱，今日白银td震荡走跌，相对强弱指数(RSI)在1小时图上显 示处于中性至看跌状态，等待后续上涨力度，警惕进一步下跌，白银td走势下方关注14500-15000支 撑；上方关注15400-16000阻力。 哈塞特是接替鲍威尔出任美联储下一任主席的热门人选，他还表示，美联储未来应该更加透明。"我认 为美联储必须把透明度提高一倍。不管谁领导美联储，都应该把所 ...

Greg, it's great to see you as always. >> Always a pleasure, >> man. I I could use all of the words this morning that I've been hearing.Confusing, murky, foggy. Take it with a grain of salt. That's those are some of the things I've heard to describe this morning's CPI report.What can we say about the report. What did it tell us. >> I call it a Swiss cheese report.It's full of holes. Uh we're missing a lot of data across the board. Um the main message in my opinion is the following.one, we have still a gradu ...

美国劳工统计局将于周二晚上九点半发布备受期待的综合了10月和11月数据的非农就业报告，但由于政 府停摆阻碍了数据收集工作，包括10月份失业率在内的多项关键细节将会缺失，这将是这一关键数据序 列自编制以来首次出现断档。 这次史上最长的政府停摆也迫使劳工统计局取消了10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）报告的发布。目前尚 不清楚，当11月份的CPI报告于周四发布时，10月份CPI的哪些组成部分数据能够一并提供。 非农和CPI报告对美联储官员制定货币政策决策、以及投资者、企业和试图评估经济健康状况的普通美 国人而言都至关重要。劳工统计局已表示，住户调查数据和10月份的CPI数据无法进行追溯性补采。 以下是对即将发布报告的预期： 非农就业报告 劳工统计局取消了10月份的就业报告，但会将当月的非农就业人数和企业调查的其他细节一并纳入11月 份的报告中。 就业报告由两项调查组成，这两项调查通常在包含当月12日的那一周内进行。 企业调查是计算非农就业人数、各行业工时和收入的数据来源。雇主以电子方式提交回复，并且在政府 停摆期间持续提交，这使得政府在重新开门后，劳工统计局能够计算出10月份的非农就业人数。 11月份调查的数据收集期 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11821, with a current price of 11852, down 0.77% from the opening price of 11715, and a trading range between a high of 11977 and a low of 11689, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The Shanghai silver market showed a significant trading range last week between 12300 and 11700, suggesting a continued low-level oscillation, with a focus on the 12300 level for potential breakout or consolidation [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to data collection issues stemming from the government shutdown, with the November report now scheduled for December 18 [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting will occur before the release of key economic data, including the November CPI and non-farm payroll reports, which may impact monetary policy decisions [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated a dovish stance based on recent labor market data, suggesting support for a 25 basis point rate cut if his vote becomes critical [3]

Economic Outlook - The upcoming week will feature significant tech earnings on Wednesday and Thursday, alongside a crucial meeting between US and Chinese leaders on Thursday [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision is anticipated, but the ongoing government shutdown complicates data availability for October, leading to uncertainty for November as well [2][9] Labor Market Insights - The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment forecast estimates an unemployment rate of 4.35% for October, showing little change from September's 4.3% [3] - Despite the lack of comprehensive data due to the shutdown, there is no indication of a significant deterioration in the labor market [4] Data Collection Challenges - The Federal Reserve's ability to gather accurate data is hindered, with the next meeting scheduled for December 10, leaving a gap in data collection for potentially one to three months [9][12] - The reliance on electronic sources for job data may allow for some estimates, but the unemployment number remains challenging to obtain due to its dependence on telephone surveys [8] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - There is a possibility of obtaining a reasonable estimate for the October CPI report if the government shutdown ends early in November, as only 2.5% of the sample is needed for a reasonable estimate [6] - Consumer confidence and jobless claims data will be monitored, although the overall data week is expected to be light due to cancellations [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's September import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports in US dollars up 8.3% year - on - year and imports up 7.4% year - on - year [7][8]. - Glass is short - term weak and medium - term in a volatile market; sugar is under pressure due to supply surplus expectations [9][10]. - Different commodities have different price trends, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, silver approaching a 50 - high, etc. [13] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Today's Discovery - China's September import and export data in US dollars showed strong growth, with export growth at a six - month high and import growth at a 17 - month high. The acceleration of imports may be related to policy - based financial tools and project starts [7][8]. 3.2 Director's Top Picks Glass - Short - term: Market has large differences on future production cuts, downstream has sufficient inventory, and real - estate market is weak, so the spot market is weak. - Medium - term: Anti - deflation and anti - involution policies are still in the window period, and the previous high futures premium has changed, so be cautious at low levels [9]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production and export situation: As of September 16, 25/26 season, cumulative sugar production was 3039 million tons, and September exports decreased. - India has a large - scale production increase expectation, with an expected 3490 million tons in the 25/26 season. - China's sugar imports remain at a high level, with an expected import volume of 500 million tons in both 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [10]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - Gold continues to hit new highs, and silver approaches a 50 - high. The report provides detailed price, trading volume, inventory, and other data [13][17]. Base Metals - Copper: Market sentiment improves, and prices rise. - Zinc: Weakly volatile. - Lead: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts. - Aluminum: Ranges in a volatile market; alumina's center of gravity moves down; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [13][23][26]. Other Metals and Minerals - Nickel: Macro - sentiment turns bearish, and prices are low - level volatile. - Stainless steel: Macro and reality jointly exert pressure, and the lower - cost limit restricts price elasticity. - Carbonate lithium: Warehouse receipts are largely liquidated, providing upward momentum. - Industrial silicon: Limited upside space. - Polysilicon: There are many self - discipline meetings this week, warehouse receipts are slightly liquidated, and market sentiment may improve [13][39][42]. Building Materials and Energy - Iron ore: Widely volatile. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weak reality and weakening expectations may lead to a slight decline in steel prices. - Coke and coking coal: Macro - expectations are fluctuating, and prices are weakly volatile. - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [13][51][60]. Chemicals - PX and PTA: Weak in the medium term. - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [13][66].

新 3 it 主管主办 上海增添了 2025 11 市场回顾 美股三大指数集体收跌 欧洲三大股指10月10日全线下跌 国际油价下跌,避险资产升温 企业资讯 特斯拉在欧洲推出低价版Model Y 国 际 宏 观 白宫官员:联邦政府裁员程序已正式启动 美联储主席候选人名单缩小至五人 美联储理事沃勒：对降息25基点持开放态度 美国9月CPI报告发布时间定于10月24日 法国总统马克龙再次任命勒科尔尼担任总理 英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数报收于9427.47点，较前一交易日下跌81.93点，跌幅为0.86%；法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于7918.0 点，较前一交易日下跌123.36点，跌幅为1.53%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24241.46点，较前一交易日下跌369.79点，跌幅为1.5%。 国际油价下跌，避险资产升温 纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货收跌4.24%；伦敦布伦特原油期货收跌3.82%。避险资产美债和黄金拉升，10年期美债收益率跳水超10个基点。 企业资讯 特斯拉在欧洲推出低价版Model Y 特斯拉周五在欧洲推出低价版Model Y标准版SUV，在德国的起售价为39,99 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September on October 24 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time [1] Group 1 - The CPI report is a key economic indicator that reflects inflation trends in the U.S. economy [1]

Core Insights - PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding indicates that tariff-related pressures are reflected in certain areas of the CPI report, primarily in the goods sector, with a slow transmission process [1] - Aside from this, inflationary pressures appear to be very manageable, which Wilding views as a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Indicators** - Tariff-related pressures are included in the CPI report, mainly affecting the goods sector [1] - The transmission of these pressures is noted to be slow [1] - **Inflation Outlook** - Overall inflationary pressures are considered to be very controllable [1] - This situation is interpreted as a favorable sign for the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Montreal Bank's capital markets U.S. interest rate strategy head, Ian Lyngen, believes it is difficult to imagine that the recent CPI report will lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before September due to the current tariff environment [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market showed a lackluster performance following the CPI report, indicating that the report may not spark discussions about a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The upcoming implementation of a new round of tariffs on August 1 is expected to lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance temporarily [1] - Investors are closely monitoring speeches from Federal Reserve officials for any hints regarding recent policy directions, although the likelihood of such guidance appearing is currently low [1]