金十数据7月15日讯，蒙特利尔银行资本市场部美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen表示，考虑到当前的关税 环境，很难想象这份CPI报告会促使美联储在9月前降息。报告公布后美国国债表现平淡，这一现象或 许也说明了这一点。在通常情况下，人们可能会认为这份报告会开启关于美联储降息的讨论。可惜的 是，8月1日即将实施的新一轮关税将使美联储暂时维持现状。接下来，今日将有多场美联储官员讲话， 投资者会密切关注其中是否有任何近期政策暗示——即便目前这类指引出现的可能性不大。 蒙特利尔银行：很难想象这份CPI报告会促使美联储在9月前降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 947.37 tons of gold as of July 9, 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 9, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 947.37 tons of gold, an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates a significant change in gold ETF holdings, which is crucial for understanding market trends [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On July 9, gold prices experienced a drop to a low of $3282.91 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3313.5 per ounce, marking an increase of $11.94 or 0.36% [6]. - The price fluctuations were primarily driven by a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, alongside optimistic investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - The recent strength in employment data has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant unwinding of long positions in Treasury futures [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding the timing and necessity of future rate cuts, with most expecting a potential cut later in the year [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold has weakened, with the price breaking the upward channel formed since mid-February [6]. - Key support levels are identified at $3297 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $3200, while resistance is noted at $3345 (21-day moving average) and $3375 (23.6% Fibonacci level) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The May CPI report is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's current wait-and-see stance on interest rates [1] Group 1 - Commonwealth Financial Network's fixed income director, Sam Millette, anticipates that the CPI report will show moderate inflationary pressures [1] - There is a possibility of unexpected volatility for investors depending on the report's outcomes [1]