当地时间12月20日，俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫抵达美国迈阿密。美国和俄罗斯代表即将在这座城市 会晤，以期推动美方提出的俄乌"和平计划"。在这次会晤中，美方将向俄方通报最近美国和乌克兰在德 国柏林谈判的情况。 01:24 乌克兰总统泽连斯基20日向媒体证实，美方已提议举行乌美俄国家安全事务助理会谈。泽连斯基对会谈 前景持谨慎乐观态度，希望会谈能推动乌俄人员交换或三方领导人会晤。 法国24小时新闻台网站报道截图 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所所长孙壮志： 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所所长孙壮志 00:00 Ukraine"报道截图 乌克兰媒体"RBC- 中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所所长孙壮志： 当前需要解决的核心问题依然众多，其中包括领土问题、安全保障问题、扎波罗热核电站问题 等。这些问题均未达成共识，因此本次在迈阿密举行的会谈中，美国与俄罗斯预计将就这些议题 进行讨论。 从目前情况看，双方或许能在部分问题的解决方向上达成一定共识。美国预计会更进一步倾听并 了解俄罗斯的诉求。但关键仍取决于乌克兰是否愿意做出重要让步，俄罗斯也需要在某些问题上 展现一定的灵活性。只有这样，才能在关键问题上取得进展。 目前，俄罗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The peace negotiations regarding Ukraine are accelerating, with the Trump administration set to meet with Ukrainian officials in Miami, alongside European nations, while separate discussions with Russian representatives are also planned. The territorial issue remains a significant obstacle to the talks [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the U.S. will not force Ukraine into an agreement, emphasizing that any deal must be mutually agreed upon by both parties involved in the conflict [1][3]. - The U.S. is currently focused on identifying acceptable conditions for both Ukraine and Russia to narrow their differences and facilitate an agreement, with some progress reported but further efforts needed [3]. - The upcoming Miami talks will include key figures such as Trump's special envoy Vitkov and senior officials from the UK, France, and Germany, marking the first direct involvement of European nations in these negotiations [3][4]. Group 2: Territorial Issues and Reactions - Reports indicate that the U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to consider ceding parts of the Donetsk region, which has faced backlash from many Ukrainians [1][4]. - Ukrainian chief negotiator Umerov stated that their actions are aligned with President Zelensky's priorities, ensuring Ukraine's security is reliably and long-term guaranteed [4]. - Russian President Putin remarked that the responsibility for negotiations now lies with Kyiv and its Western allies, asserting confidence in the Russian military's progress [5].

Core Viewpoint - Ukrainian President Zelensky has reached an agreement with the U.S. for legally binding security guarantees to advance peace negotiations with Russia [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Involvement and Security Guarantees - The U.S. is willing to provide security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5, but this comes with a "last ultimatum" for Ukraine to accept current conditions [1][6]. - A joint statement from European leaders supports U.S. efforts in peace negotiations and commits to assisting Ukraine in rebuilding its military and deterring Russia [3]. - U.S. officials express optimism about the peace talks, believing Russia will accept conditions that empower Ukraine [7]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - Zelensky is prepared to abandon NATO membership in exchange for U.S. and European security guarantees, indicating a significant shift in Ukraine's stance [6]. - Despite progress on security guarantees, there is no consensus on territorial issues, and discussions about potential referendums have not yet occurred [6]. - Russia maintains a firm stance on territorial control and opposes any NATO presence in Ukraine, emphasizing that these are non-negotiable points [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, international oil prices fluctuated downward. Iraq resumed oilfield production, EIA and IEA monthly reports showed large supply - surplus pressure, and the market also focused on the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. Geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut led to mixed price movements, with an overall decline. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - Currently, both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, and global floating crude oil inventories at sea have soared to 1.4 billion barrels, 24% higher than the historical average. Although the IEA has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, it still expects the oil supply surplus to narrow slightly next year, with supply exceeding demand, suppressing oil prices. Geopolitical factors have a short - term impact on market sentiment, and short - selling at high levels is advisable [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - International oil prices fluctuated downward in the week ending December 12, 2025. Iraq resumed oilfield production, and supply - surplus pressure was large according to EIA and IEA reports. Geopolitical events and the Fed's interest - rate cut affected prices. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - For the future, OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, floating inventories are high, and although demand growth forecast is raised, supply will still exceed demand, with geopolitical factors having a short - term impact. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [2]. Attention Factors - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 437.60 | 453.40 | - 15.80 | - 3.48% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | Dollar/barrel | 62.03 | 64.22 | - 2.19 | - 3.41% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 61.22 | 63.86 | - 2.64 | - 4.13% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 57.51 | 60.11 | - 2.60 | - 4.33% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13853 | 13862 | - 9 | - 0.06% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 425691 | 424155 | 1536 | 0.36% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 645 | 593 | 52 | 8.77% | Weekly | [4]

Group 1: Gold - The last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has concluded, with Chairman Powell not providing hints for future cuts, perceived as a "hawkish cut," but the overall tone is less aggressive than expected. The dot plot indicates only one rate cut (25 basis points) is anticipated next year, consistent with September's expectations [1] - Wall Street investment banks predict two rate cuts next year totaling 50 basis points, with Citigroup forecasting cuts in January and March, while Morgan Stanley suggests January and April. Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Barclays expect cuts in March and June [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes that with the conclusion of the last rate cut, investors are betting on future cuts by the Fed, which is favorable for gold prices [1] - Technically, gold broke through the previous two-week trading range (4180-4260 USD) and is expected to target 4320 USD. Short-term outlook indicates a continuation of upward momentum after recent fluctuations [1] Group 2: Oil - Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are at a standstill, with conflicting demands and "red lines." The main disagreement centers on Russia's demand for the Donbas region and security guarantees for Ukraine, with Putin stating he "will not compromise" [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that despite declines in oil production from Russia and Venezuela, global supply still exceeds demand. It forecasts a modest increase in global oil demand of 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026, significantly lower than previous years [2] - Technically, oil faced resistance at 60.47 USD last week and has since retreated, with a recent bounce back to around 57 USD. The downward trend remains intact, with resistance at 58.10 USD and support at 57 USD, with a potential drop to 56.20 USD if support is broken [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The FOMC statement indicates that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, and the Fed plans to purchase 40 billion USD in short-term US Treasury bonds over the next month to maintain sufficient reserves, marking a shift from balance sheet reduction to expansion [3] - Notable short-seller Michael Burry expressed concerns about the Fed's actions, suggesting that without over 3 trillion USD in reserves, the US banking system would be unable to function, indicating fragility. He also noted that each crisis leads the Fed to permanently expand its balance sheet, which poses risks [3] - Technically, the dollar faced resistance at 100.40, indicating a broad range of fluctuations over the past six months. A break below 99 increases the likelihood of further declines, with potential support at 96.60 [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has maintained a trading range of 50200 to 51000 over the past week, with unclear short-term direction. A breakout above 51100 could lead to a target of 51700 [4] Group 5: Copper - Copper prices recently broke through previous highs, showing a strong upward trend in the hourly chart and a broad upward movement in the daily chart, with further increases likely towards 5.38 USD. Short-term focus is on a key level at 5.35 USD, with potential upward movement towards 5.49 USD [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and the United States regarding a proposed peace plan to resolve the conflict with Russia, with significant disagreements remaining on territorial issues and the management of certain regions [1][2][4]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine has submitted a revised agreement to the U.S., which still demands significant concessions from Ukraine on territorial matters, particularly in the Donetsk region [1][2]. - There are two main points of contention in the negotiations: the territorial status of the Donetsk region and the co-management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant [2][3]. Group 2 - Zelensky expressed concerns that any proposed "free economic zone" or "demilitarized zone" in the Donetsk region should not require unilateral withdrawal of Ukrainian forces without corresponding actions from Russian troops [2][3]. - Discussions between Ukraine and the U.S. also included the withdrawal of Russian forces from various regions, with an agreement allowing Ukraine to maintain a military force of 800,000 personnel [3]. - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Ukraine must remain neutral, non-aligned, and denuclearized, which could serve as a starting point for resolving the conflict [4][5]. Group 3 - European leaders, including those from France and Germany, have expressed caution regarding U.S. proposals, emphasizing that any territorial concessions must be determined by the Ukrainian people and should not compromise European security interests [4][5]. - There are ongoing discussions among European leaders and the U.S. regarding the handling of frozen Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, indicating a lack of consensus on these issues [5][6]. - U.S. President Trump has criticized European leaders for their perceived inaction and suggested that Ukraine should accept the current realities of the conflict and consider holding elections [6].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing efforts led by the U.S. to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict face significant obstacles, particularly regarding territorial concessions, which could derail any potential agreement [1][8]. Importance of the Donbas Region - The Donbas region, comprising Donetsk and Luhansk, is crucial for Ukraine's defense against Russian advances, with its control being politically significant for Kyiv [1][9]. - The area is approximately the size of West Virginia and has historically been a center of industry, making it strategically important [1][9]. - The Kremlin aims to negotiate control over this region, which has been a focal point of military efforts since 2014 [9]. Military Developments - Russian forces claim to have captured significant portions of Pokrovsk and have reached the southern entrance of Konstantinivka, prompting Ukrainian military leadership to order partial withdrawals [2][10]. - Ukraine invested over $1 billion in defensive structures in the Donbas last year, indicating the region's importance in the ongoing conflict [2][9]. U.S. Pressure for Peace - The Trump administration has been pushing for Ukraine to accept land swaps as part of any peace agreement, suggesting that ceding 25% of the remaining territory in eastern Donetsk could lead to a fair peace [3][10]. - U.S. officials believe that Ukraine lacks leverage and may face greater losses on the battlefield if it refuses to make territorial concessions [3][10]. Ukrainian Stance - Ukrainian President Zelensky has firmly stated that Ukraine will not surrender territory, emphasizing legal and moral grounds against such actions [4][12]. - There is widespread concern among analysts and officials that any weak agreement could create internal divisions within Ukraine and open doors for further Russian advances [4][11]. Proposed Peace Framework - The early draft of Trump's 28-point plan includes establishing a neutral, demilitarized buffer zone in the Donetsk region, which would be recognized internationally as Russian territory [12]. - The proposal has faced significant backlash from Ukrainian officials and European diplomats, indicating a lack of support for the suggested terms [12]. Historical Context - Previous agreements, such as the Minsk Protocols, have failed to provide lasting peace or security for Ukraine, leading to skepticism about new proposals [14]. - Analysts warn that any new agreements must clearly define the technical aspects of demilitarization and territorial control to avoid repeating past mistakes [13][14].

Group 1 - The core message from President Putin is a warning to Europe and Ukraine regarding potential military actions, emphasizing that Russia is prepared for various scenarios but does not intend to initiate conflict with the EU [1][5] - Putin criticized Europe for lacking a genuine desire for peace and accused some nations of siding with war, while also addressing European dissatisfaction over being excluded from peace negotiations regarding the Ukraine conflict [1][8] - Russia's control in the Black Sea appears to be weakening, as Ukraine has successfully targeted Russian oil tankers, leading to heightened tensions and a potential shift in regional power dynamics [3][5] Group 2 - Putin has threatened to expand military actions against Ukrainian port facilities and vessels, indicating that extreme measures could include cutting off Ukraine's access to the sea [5][8] - The series of warnings issued by Putin serves a strategic purpose, aiming to deter both Europe and Ukraine while also signaling to the United States the seriousness of Russia's position in the ongoing conflict [8]

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that there are still tricky issues unresolved after the US-Ukraine talks in Florida, as he seeks support from European allies while a US envoy heads to Moscow to report to the Kremlin [1] - The US and Ukrainian officials held discussions at a golf resort built by Steve Witkoff, aiming to end the ongoing conflict in Europe, with Zelensky traveling to Paris for support from President Macron and then to Ireland [1] - Ukraine and its European allies are urging the US to modify a proposed peace plan that initially supports core Russian demands, which Ukraine views as tantamount to surrender [1] Group 2 - Rubio mentioned that progress has been made, but there are still complex issues to resolve, emphasizing the need for continued engagement with Russia [2] - The current negotiations for Ukraine are challenging, with setbacks on the front lines and significant corruption scandals affecting the government [2] - Trump expressed disappointment over the lack of a peace agreement, indicating that both Ukraine and Russia desire to end the conflict [3] Group 3 - Putin's response to the modified peace plan has been cautious, indicating that while Russia is open to negotiations, the conflict may not end quickly [4] - Analysts from the US "Institute for the Study of War" noted that Russian military bloggers believe Putin will not compromise on territorial demands, suggesting a potential rejection of any peace proposals [5] - Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities, with recent claims of territorial gains in the Donetsk region, while also targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure [5] Group 4 - Ukraine has been conducting long-range strikes targeting Russian oil exports, with recent attacks on a Russian oil export terminal and two oil tankers in the Black Sea [6]

12月1日，国内期市贵金属板块全线飘红。其中，铂期货主力合约开盘报447.70元/克，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，铂主力最高触及462.25元，下方探低444.70元，涨幅达4.51%。 目前来看，铂行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于铂后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总 如下： 华联期货分析称，基本面上，全球铂金连续两年短缺，2024年缺口达99.2万盎司，预计2025年继续短 缺。铂金的供应萎缩以及工业需求的上升和价格较低使得珠宝首饰和投资需求企稳，使得铂金的供需矛 盾凸显，预计铂金的供需缺口未来几年仍存，因此长期看好铂金的基本面。 银河期货指出，周五，铂金、钯金期货自首日大涨后震荡回调，回吐部分涨幅。从市场结构看，内盘与 外盘走势出现分化，内盘在获利了结压力下进入调整，且钯金因基本面支撑弱于铂金，跌幅更为显著。 供需层面，铂金在首饰与投资需求拉动下，供应缺口或持续凸显，其中长期表现预计仍将优于钯金。 国投安信期货表示，铂钯上市伊始国内投资者对铂的青睐度更高，相对走势上铂强于钯，倾向多铂空 钯。本周继续关注俄乌和平谈判进展。 ...