Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current situation is in a game period between various parties seeking oil to suppress oil price panic and oil supply shortages. The released or potentially released inventory of about 630 million barrels can suppress panic to some extent, but the core contradiction of oil prices, the navigation problem of the Strait of Hormuz, remains unsolved [2]. - The Middle East conflict continues to push up geopolitical risks. After Netanyahu's statement to "suspend" subsequent air - strikes on energy facilities, oil prices declined. As of March 20th, Brent and WTI oil prices were $106.41 and $98.23 per barrel respectively [2]. - The Strait of Hormuz maintains a low - traffic state. Since March, less than 100 ships have passed through, and on March 20th, the total ship traffic in the Persian Gulf was only 2 times. The longer the war lasts, the higher the oil price will rise. In the medium - term, a low - level bullish trading strategy should be maintained [3]. - Pay attention to the situation of the US dispatching ground troops and whether it will attack Kharg Island [3]. - Factors to focus on are geopolitics and weekly crude oil data [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week is in the game period of suppressing oil price panic and oil supply shortages. The released or potentially released inventory is about 630 million barrels, but the core problem of the Strait of Hormuz remains unsolved. The Middle East conflict affects oil prices, and as of March 20th, Brent and WTI oil prices are $106.41 and $98.23 per barrel respectively [2]. Future Market Outlook - The Strait of Hormuz has low traffic. The longer the war lasts, the higher the oil price will rise. In the medium - term, maintain a low - level bullish trading strategy. Pay attention to the US ground troops and possible attacks on Kharg Island [3]. Attention Factors - Geopolitics and weekly crude oil data [4] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - SC crude oil futures price increased by 3.04% week - on - week to 773.60 yuan/barrel; Oman crude oil spot price increased by 8.87% week - on - week to $158.83 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures price increased by 5.45% week - on - week to $109.55 per barrel; WTI crude oil futures price decreased by 2.77% week - on - week to $96.60 per barrel; US crude oil production decreased by 0.07% week - on - week to 13,668 thousand barrels per day; US crude oil inventory increased by 1.39% week - on - week to 449,259 thousand barrels; comprehensive refinery profit decreased by 5.73% week - on - week to 1,824.81 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the IEA's decision to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves and the U.S. granting a 30 - day permission to countries unable to bring back Russian oil, the core market contradictions remain unresolved. The ongoing Israel - Iran - U.S. war and the control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have significantly tightened Middle East oil supply, providing support for oil prices. Oil prices rose this week, and investors should look for low - level long - position operation opportunities while keeping an eye on the war situation and controlling risks [2]. - Measures like Saudi Arabia redirecting some crude oil exports through pipelines to Red Sea ports and the IEA's oil release cannot solve the key supply bottleneck of restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The demands of Iran and Israel are difficult to meet, and with no sign of war alleviation, a low - level long - position strategy should be maintained, with attention on the war's development [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The IEA decided to release 400 million barrels of oil, and the U.S. gave a 30 - day permission. A total of 500 million barrels will be put into the market. The market core contradiction remains unsolved, and due to the war and supply tightening, oil prices rose this week. Low - level long - position operations are recommended while watching the war and controlling risks [2]. Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be monitored [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 750.80 | 664.80 | 181.20 | 37.47% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 145.89 | 100.45 | 29.09 | 40.77% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 103.89 | 84.31 | 11.78 | 16.24% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 99.35 | 78.88 | 11.65 | 17.33% | Daily | | U.S. Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13678 | 13696 | - 6 | - 0.04% | Weekly | | U.S. Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 443103 | 439279 | 3475 | 0.80% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 1935.81 | 993.81 | 245 | 32.68% | Weekly | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran during the holiday, crude oil has obtained a geopolitical premium. The US and Iran are in a tense stand - off of "talking while fighting", and there is still uncertainty as Trump's "10 - 15 day ultimatum" to Iran approaches. Brent crude oil rose 3.51% or 5.81% this week [2]. - OPEC+ has suspended production increases in the first quarter, and eight core member countries will hold an online meeting on March 1st to make a final decision. Russian crude oil exports are at a low level, and there is room for an increase if the "Russia - Ukraine peace agreement" is reached. US production remains high with a low growth rate, and the number of rigs and new wells has been stable recently. In the medium term, the US may increase investment in Venezuela's oil and gas industry, and Venezuela's production capacity is expected to gradually recover. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply growth rate, with short - term focus on Iran (geopolitical fermentation) and long - term focus on OPEC+ policies, US, and Russian production changes [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The situation between the US and Iran is unclear, and crude oil has obtained a geopolitical premium. The US and Iran are in a "talking while fighting" stand - off, and uncertainty remains as the ultimatum approaches. Brent crude oil had a weekly increase [2]. - The latest monthly report of the International Energy Agency shows that the global crude oil inventory accumulation rate in 2025 was the fastest since 2020, with an increase of 477 million barrels. OECD countries' inventory exceeded the 5 - year average for the first time in 4 years [2]. Future Market Outlook - OPEC+ has suspended production increases in Q1, and an online meeting will be held on March 1st. Russian exports are low, with potential for recovery. US production is high with low growth, and Venezuela's capacity may recover. Supply growth pressure exists, with short - term focus on Iran and long - term on OPEC+ policies, US, and Russian production [2]. Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - **Price Changes**: SC crude oil futures rose 7.80% to 506.46 yuan/barrel; Oman crude oil spot fell 1.23% to 67.25 dollars/barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 4.99% to 71.50 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil futures rose 4.44% to 66.33 dollars/barrel [4]. - **Supply Changes**: US crude oil production increased 3.93% to 13,735 thousand barrels per day [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: US crude oil inventory decreased 0.12% to 419,815 thousand barrels [4]. - **Profit Changes**: The comprehensive refinery profit increased 35.81% to 895 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on crude oil futures dated February 2, 2026 [2] - The report is written by Shi Xiuming with investment consulting qualification number F0255552 [3] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Geopolitical speculation around the US - Iran situation has been the core driver of oil price increases. If geopolitical conflicts threaten the Strait of Hormuz, the maximum rebound of oil prices could reach 20%, with WTI at $66/barrel, Brent at $72/barrel, and SC at around 500 yuan/barrel. Last week, oil prices reached this high and then fell [3] - Geopolitical conflicts have cooled as Iran's Foreign Minister expressed confidence in reaching a nuclear - deal with the US [3] - OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 2026, but there was significant cumulative production increase in 2025. Non - OPEC+ countries like the US, Brazil, and Guyana are producing at high levels. The expected non - OPEC+ supply increment in 2026 is about 1.2 million barrels per day [3] - Venezuela's situation causes short - term export disruptions, but is seen as a potential supply expansion in the long - term [3] - Supply growth pressure remains. Short - term supply variables depend on Iran (geopolitical fermentation), and long - term on OPEC+ policies [3] Group 3: Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be monitored [4] Group 4: Weekly Fundamental Data Changes | Commodity | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 470.80 | 441.90 | 28.90 | 6.54% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 66.70 | 62.63 | 4.07 | 6.50% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 70.80 | 66.29 | 4.51 | 6.80% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 65.59 | 61.29 | 4.30 | 7.02% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels per day | 13696 | 13580 | 116 | 0.85% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 423754 | 426049 | - 2295 | - 0.54% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 659 | 761 | - 102 | - 13.40% | Weekly | [5] Group 5: Report Content by Category 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - The report presents multiple charts related to spot and futures prices, including SC crude oil futures price, Oman crude oil spot price, Brent and WTI crude oil futures and their spreads, and the relationship between the US dollar index and WTI crude oil [9][10][11] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report includes charts on OPEC crude oil production, US weekly crude oil production, US drilling rig numbers, and new well - drilling numbers [14][16][18] 3. Crude Oil Inventory - Charts show OECD total crude oil and oil product inventories, US crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves), and US crude oil inventories in Cushing [20][22][26] 4. Demand Situation Analysis - The report provides charts on US refinery input, capacity utilization, China's refined oil refinery and independent refinery operating rates, European 16 - country refinery operating rates, and India's total crude oil processing volume [29][34][36] 5. Cost - Profit Analysis - A chart shows the comprehensive refining profit of major refineries and independent refineries [38]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, prices increased due to the escalation of domestic demonstrations in Iran and the US's warning. In the middle of the week, as the expectation of the US attacking Iran weakened, oil prices dropped significantly. Overall, the crude oil market still faces supply - surplus pressure, and without geopolitical drivers, it's difficult for oil prices to maintain a strong pattern [2]. - OPEC+ will pause production increases in Q1 2026, but there was significant cumulative production increase in 2025. Non - OPEC+ countries like the US, Brazil, and Guyana are operating at high production levels. It is expected that the non - OPEC+ supply will increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. The situation in Venezuela may cause short - term disruptions to exports, but in the long - term, it is seen as a potential supply expansion. Overall, supply growth pressure remains, with short - term supply variables depending on Iran (geopolitical developments) and long - term on OPEC+ policies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors initially drove prices up, but later the weakening of relevant expectations led to a decline. The supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market persists [2]. Key Concerns - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - **Periodic and Spot Market**: SC crude oil futures rose from 432.70 yuan/barrel to 438.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.41% increase; Oman crude oil spot increased from 61.20 dollars/barrel to 62.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.60% increase; Brent crude oil futures went up from 63.02 dollars/barrel to 64.20 dollars/barrel, a 1.87% increase; WTI crude oil futures rose from 58.40 dollars/barrel to 59.44 dollars/barrel, a 1.78% increase [4]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production decreased from 13,792 thousand barrels per day to 13,753 thousand barrels per day, a 0.28% decline. OPEC's production situation is presented in relevant charts [4][13]. - **Inventory**: US crude oil inventory increased from 419,056 thousand barrels to 422,477 thousand barrels, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Demand**: Data such as refinery operating rates in the US, China, Europe, and India are presented in relevant charts [26][28][30]. - **Cost - profit**: The comprehensive refinery profit increased from 677 yuan/ton to 726 yuan/ton, a 7.24% increase [4].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 29, 2025 [1] - **Report Author**: Shi Xiuming [2] - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a slowdown in oil shipping operations, with daily crude oil exports decreasing by about 200,000 barrels (a 25% decline) last week, accounting for only 0.7% of OPEC's production and having a small impact on the global supply. On Friday, international oil prices fell by over 2%, influenced by market expectations of a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases in Q1, non -减产联盟 countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase production, keeping supply sufficient. Even if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is resolved, Russia's oil supply will still be adjusted according to OPEC+ goals. The market should be treated with a view of weakening volatility [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Geopolitics and weekly crude oil data [3] Weekly Fundamental Data Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - **SC Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 441.80 yuan/barrel, with a weekly increase of 15.20 yuan and a change rate of 3.56% [4] - **Oman Crude Oil Spot**: The price is 62.66 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.90 dollars and a change rate of 3.13% [4] - **Brent Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 62.28 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.73 dollars and a change rate of 2.86% [4] - **WTI Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 56.90 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.35 dollars and a change rate of 0.62% [4] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - **US Crude Oil Production**: The production is 13,842 thousand barrels per day, with a weekly decrease of 20 thousand barrels and a change rate of - 0.14% [4] 3. Crude Oil Inventory - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventory is 424,417 thousand barrels, with no change from the previous week [4] 4. Demand Situation Analysis - Not provided with specific data analysis in the text 5. Cost - Profit Analysis - **Comprehensive Refinery Profit**: The profit is 663 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan and a change rate of 8.16% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, international oil prices fluctuated downward. Iraq resumed oilfield production, EIA and IEA monthly reports showed large supply - surplus pressure, and the market also focused on the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. Geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut led to mixed price movements, with an overall decline. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - Currently, both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, and global floating crude oil inventories at sea have soared to 1.4 billion barrels, 24% higher than the historical average. Although the IEA has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, it still expects the oil supply surplus to narrow slightly next year, with supply exceeding demand, suppressing oil prices. Geopolitical factors have a short - term impact on market sentiment, and short - selling at high levels is advisable [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - International oil prices fluctuated downward in the week ending December 12, 2025. Iraq resumed oilfield production, and supply - surplus pressure was large according to EIA and IEA reports. Geopolitical events and the Fed's interest - rate cut affected prices. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - For the future, OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, floating inventories are high, and although demand growth forecast is raised, supply will still exceed demand, with geopolitical factors having a short - term impact. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [2]. Attention Factors - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 437.60 | 453.40 | - 15.80 | - 3.48% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | Dollar/barrel | 62.03 | 64.22 | - 2.19 | - 3.41% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 61.22 | 63.86 | - 2.64 | - 4.13% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 57.51 | 60.11 | - 2.60 | - 4.33% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13853 | 13862 | - 9 | - 0.06% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 425691 | 424155 | 1536 | 0.36% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 645 | 593 | 52 | 8.77% | Weekly | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, international oil prices fluctuated and declined. The reported potential peace deal in Ukraine and increased US oil and refined product inventories were negative for the market, but a decrease in US oil rigs and doubts about the peace plan led to a late - week price increase. Overall, geopolitical factors caused the price decline. Brent and WTI oil prices were $62.38 and $58.55 per barrel respectively on November 28 [3]. - For the future, OPEC+ is maintaining slow production increases in December and pausing increases in Q1 2026, indicating weak demand. The global oversupply in both reality and expectation will pressure oil prices. However, low inventories will provide support, and geopolitical and sanction uncertainties will intermittently affect the oil market. An overall weak - side fluctuating approach is recommended for operations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - International oil prices fluctuated and declined in the week ending November 28, 2025. Market sentiment was affected by news of a potential Ukraine - US peace deal, inventory changes, and rig count. The prices of Brent and WTI were $62.38 and $58.55 per barrel respectively on November 28 [3]. - Future oil prices will be pressured by weak demand and oversupply, but supported by low inventories. Geopolitical and sanction uncertainties will also have an impact. An operation strategy of weak - side fluctuation is advised [3]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data are the key factors to watch [4]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Commodity/Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 453.40 | 447.40 | 6.00 | 1.34% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 64.22 | 62.96 | 1.26 | 2.00% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 63.86 | 61.89 | 1.97 | 3.18% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 60.11 | 57.98 | 2.13 | 3.67% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels per day | 13862 | 13834 | 28 | 0.20% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 424155 | 424155 | 3348 | 0.79% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 593 | 854 | - 261 | - 30.56% | Weekly | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated weakly with a pattern of falling first and then rising. Concerns about a possible peace agreement led to sudden intraday drops in oil prices in the first half of the week, while in the second half, as it became clear that the demands of Russia and Ukraine were still far from consensus, the concerns eased and oil prices rebounded from the lows [2]. - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year and remained cautious about whether to continue increasing production after April next year, indicating concerns about oversupply and strengthening the reality of an oversupplied crude oil market [3]. - Short - term negotiations between the US and Russia are crucial, especially with Putin set to meet the US Middle East envoy. Attention should be paid to geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of November 28, the prices of SC2601, Brent, and WTI crude oil were 453.9 yuan/barrel, 62.32, and 58.48 US dollars/barrel respectively [2]. - The "peace plan" changed from 28 to 19 items. US officials said Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement with some minor details undetermined, but Russia remained calm and was not in a hurry to negotiate on key issues [2]. Fundamental Data Changes | Type | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | yuan/barrel | 453.900 | 447.40 | 6.50 | 1.45% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 64.43 | 62.96 | 1.47 | 2.33% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 62.32 | 61.89 | 0.43 | 0.69% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 58.48 | 57.98 | 0.50 | 0.86% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13834 | 28 | 0.20% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | thousand barrels | 426929 | 424155 | 2774 | 0.65% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | yuan/ton | 621 | 854 | - 233 | - 27.28% | Weekly | [5] Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [4].