2026年02月24日 周报 期货研究报告 原油期货：原油获得地缘溢价 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：假期美伊局势不明朗，原油获得地缘溢价。美伊近期呈现"边谈边打"的紧张对峙， 随着特朗普给伊朗划定的"10～15天最后通牒"临近，不确定性仍存。布伦特原油周涨3.51%或5.81%。其他方 面，国际能源署最新月报显示，2025年全球原油库存累积速度为2020年以来最快，增加4.77亿桶，OECD国家库 存4年来首次超过5年均值。 2、对于后市。OPEC+一季度暂停增产，八个核心成员国将于3月1日举行线上会议，预计将作出最终决定； 俄罗斯原油出口量低位运行。如果"俄乌和平协议"达成，俄油出口存在回升空间；美国产量维持高位，增速 为偏低水平，钻机数及新井数近期持稳；中期美国或加大对委内油气产业投资，委内产能有望逐步回升。整体 来看，供应增速压力仍存，短期看伊朗（地缘发酵），长看OPEC+政策、美国、俄罗斯产量变化。 3、关注因素：1.地缘政治；2.原油周度数据。 | 原油 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 ...

期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 原油期货：地缘溢价已充分 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：过去一段时间围绕美伊局势的地缘炒作是油价上涨的核心驱动。根据去年经验， 若地缘政治冲突威胁到霍尔木兹海峡，油价最高反弹幅度可达20%，即WTI66美元/桶、Brent72美元/桶、 SC500元/桶左右，上周最高油价恰好到达这个高度后便回落。后市若地缘事件并未在此基础上进一步激化， 则该价格高点或已成为本轮反弹行情的阻力。据央视报道，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐当地时间2月1日 在接受媒体采访时表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"，地缘冲突有所降温。 2、对于后市。OPEC+一季度暂停增产，但2025年已累计增产明显，叠加美国、巴西、圭亚那等非OPEC+国家 产量高位运行，预计2026年非OPEC+供应增量约120万桶/日。委内瑞拉局势短期扰动出口，但中长期被市场解读 为潜在供应扩张预期，而非实质性中断风险。整体来看，供应增速压力仍存，供应变量短看伊朗（地缘发酵）， 长看OPEC+政策。 3、关注因素：1.地缘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, prices increased due to the escalation of domestic demonstrations in Iran and the US's warning. In the middle of the week, as the expectation of the US attacking Iran weakened, oil prices dropped significantly. Overall, the crude oil market still faces supply - surplus pressure, and without geopolitical drivers, it's difficult for oil prices to maintain a strong pattern [2]. - OPEC+ will pause production increases in Q1 2026, but there was significant cumulative production increase in 2025. Non - OPEC+ countries like the US, Brazil, and Guyana are operating at high production levels. It is expected that the non - OPEC+ supply will increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. The situation in Venezuela may cause short - term disruptions to exports, but in the long - term, it is seen as a potential supply expansion. Overall, supply growth pressure remains, with short - term supply variables depending on Iran (geopolitical developments) and long - term on OPEC+ policies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors initially drove prices up, but later the weakening of relevant expectations led to a decline. The supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market persists [2]. Key Concerns - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - **Periodic and Spot Market**: SC crude oil futures rose from 432.70 yuan/barrel to 438.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.41% increase; Oman crude oil spot increased from 61.20 dollars/barrel to 62.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.60% increase; Brent crude oil futures went up from 63.02 dollars/barrel to 64.20 dollars/barrel, a 1.87% increase; WTI crude oil futures rose from 58.40 dollars/barrel to 59.44 dollars/barrel, a 1.78% increase [4]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production decreased from 13,792 thousand barrels per day to 13,753 thousand barrels per day, a 0.28% decline. OPEC's production situation is presented in relevant charts [4][13]. - **Inventory**: US crude oil inventory increased from 419,056 thousand barrels to 422,477 thousand barrels, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Demand**: Data such as refinery operating rates in the US, China, Europe, and India are presented in relevant charts [26][28][30]. - **Cost - profit**: The comprehensive refinery profit increased from 677 yuan/ton to 726 yuan/ton, a 7.24% increase [4].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 29, 2025 [1] - **Report Author**: Shi Xiuming [2] - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a slowdown in oil shipping operations, with daily crude oil exports decreasing by about 200,000 barrels (a 25% decline) last week, accounting for only 0.7% of OPEC's production and having a small impact on the global supply. On Friday, international oil prices fell by over 2%, influenced by market expectations of a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases in Q1, non -减产联盟 countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase production, keeping supply sufficient. Even if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is resolved, Russia's oil supply will still be adjusted according to OPEC+ goals. The market should be treated with a view of weakening volatility [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Geopolitics and weekly crude oil data [3] Weekly Fundamental Data Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - **SC Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 441.80 yuan/barrel, with a weekly increase of 15.20 yuan and a change rate of 3.56% [4] - **Oman Crude Oil Spot**: The price is 62.66 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.90 dollars and a change rate of 3.13% [4] - **Brent Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 62.28 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.73 dollars and a change rate of 2.86% [4] - **WTI Crude Oil Futures**: The price is 56.90 dollars/barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.35 dollars and a change rate of 0.62% [4] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - **US Crude Oil Production**: The production is 13,842 thousand barrels per day, with a weekly decrease of 20 thousand barrels and a change rate of - 0.14% [4] 3. Crude Oil Inventory - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventory is 424,417 thousand barrels, with no change from the previous week [4] 4. Demand Situation Analysis - Not provided with specific data analysis in the text 5. Cost - Profit Analysis - **Comprehensive Refinery Profit**: The profit is 663 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan and a change rate of 8.16% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, international oil prices fluctuated downward. Iraq resumed oilfield production, EIA and IEA monthly reports showed large supply - surplus pressure, and the market also focused on the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. Geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut led to mixed price movements, with an overall decline. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - Currently, both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, and global floating crude oil inventories at sea have soared to 1.4 billion barrels, 24% higher than the historical average. Although the IEA has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, it still expects the oil supply surplus to narrow slightly next year, with supply exceeding demand, suppressing oil prices. Geopolitical factors have a short - term impact on market sentiment, and short - selling at high levels is advisable [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - International oil prices fluctuated downward in the week ending December 12, 2025. Iraq resumed oilfield production, and supply - surplus pressure was large according to EIA and IEA reports. Geopolitical events and the Fed's interest - rate cut affected prices. Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel respectively on December 12 [2]. - For the future, OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ production are increasing, floating inventories are high, and although demand growth forecast is raised, supply will still exceed demand, with geopolitical factors having a short - term impact. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [2]. Attention Factors - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 437.60 | 453.40 | - 15.80 | - 3.48% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | Dollar/barrel | 62.03 | 64.22 | - 2.19 | - 3.41% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 61.22 | 63.86 | - 2.64 | - 4.13% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | Dollar/barrel | 57.51 | 60.11 | - 2.60 | - 4.33% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13853 | 13862 | - 9 | - 0.06% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 425691 | 424155 | 1536 | 0.36% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 645 | 593 | 52 | 8.77% | Weekly | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, international oil prices fluctuated and declined. The reported potential peace deal in Ukraine and increased US oil and refined product inventories were negative for the market, but a decrease in US oil rigs and doubts about the peace plan led to a late - week price increase. Overall, geopolitical factors caused the price decline. Brent and WTI oil prices were $62.38 and $58.55 per barrel respectively on November 28 [3]. - For the future, OPEC+ is maintaining slow production increases in December and pausing increases in Q1 2026, indicating weak demand. The global oversupply in both reality and expectation will pressure oil prices. However, low inventories will provide support, and geopolitical and sanction uncertainties will intermittently affect the oil market. An overall weak - side fluctuating approach is recommended for operations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - International oil prices fluctuated and declined in the week ending November 28, 2025. Market sentiment was affected by news of a potential Ukraine - US peace deal, inventory changes, and rig count. The prices of Brent and WTI were $62.38 and $58.55 per barrel respectively on November 28 [3]. - Future oil prices will be pressured by weak demand and oversupply, but supported by low inventories. Geopolitical and sanction uncertainties will also have an impact. An operation strategy of weak - side fluctuation is advised [3]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data are the key factors to watch [4]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Commodity/Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 453.40 | 447.40 | 6.00 | 1.34% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 64.22 | 62.96 | 1.26 | 2.00% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 63.86 | 61.89 | 1.97 | 3.18% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 60.11 | 57.98 | 2.13 | 3.67% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels per day | 13862 | 13834 | 28 | 0.20% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 424155 | 424155 | 3348 | 0.79% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 593 | 854 | - 261 | - 30.56% | Weekly | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated weakly with a pattern of falling first and then rising. Concerns about a possible peace agreement led to sudden intraday drops in oil prices in the first half of the week, while in the second half, as it became clear that the demands of Russia and Ukraine were still far from consensus, the concerns eased and oil prices rebounded from the lows [2]. - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year and remained cautious about whether to continue increasing production after April next year, indicating concerns about oversupply and strengthening the reality of an oversupplied crude oil market [3]. - Short - term negotiations between the US and Russia are crucial, especially with Putin set to meet the US Middle East envoy. Attention should be paid to geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of November 28, the prices of SC2601, Brent, and WTI crude oil were 453.9 yuan/barrel, 62.32, and 58.48 US dollars/barrel respectively [2]. - The "peace plan" changed from 28 to 19 items. US officials said Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement with some minor details undetermined, but Russia remained calm and was not in a hurry to negotiate on key issues [2]. Fundamental Data Changes | Type | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | yuan/barrel | 453.900 | 447.40 | 6.50 | 1.45% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 64.43 | 62.96 | 1.47 | 2.33% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 62.32 | 61.89 | 0.43 | 0.69% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 58.48 | 57.98 | 0.50 | 0.86% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13834 | 28 | 0.20% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | thousand barrels | 426929 | 424155 | 2774 | 0.65% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | yuan/ton | 621 | 854 | - 233 | - 27.28% | Weekly | [5] Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [4].