棕油上涨、花生大涨 一、农产品板块综述 油脂强势走高,棕油领涨,因马棕油产量增幅放缓,而出口增幅 扩大,支撑棕油期价走高,继续关注后续产地产量变化。豆油先跌后 涨,受到棕榈油强势带动而缩减跌幅,但进口大豆到港集中,油厂开 机率上市,豆油供应增加,豆油期价承压,后续仍有走跌压力。花生 暴涨,受到油脂板块强势的带动,加之花生贸易商惜售以及进口花生 米偏低等因素支撑花生期价大幅上涨,创近半年新高,后续料将偏强 运行。玉米走势企稳,产区余粮见底以及港口库存下降支撑玉米期价 逐渐回稳有升。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅上扬 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约继续大涨,受到马棕榈油增产 放缓以及出口强劲的提振: 1.高频数据显示,马来西亚 5 月 1-25 日标搁油出口环比增幅在 7%-11%之间,而同期产量环比增幅在 0.73%,产量增幅不及出口增 幅,给市场注入偏多影响,因印度当前棕榈油库存偏低,有阶段性补 库需求,提振马棕榈油出口。 2.国内豆棕现货价差倒挂加深,棕榈油现货交投冷清,棕榈油消 费偏弱。大连棕榈油主力 2509 合约强劲上扬,站上 40 日均线,MACD 红柱放大,技术强势。策略上轻仓多 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The downstream procurement demand for soybeans is low, and the soybean price is oscillating. The domestic soybean futures price declined slightly yesterday, while the prices in various regions of domestic soybeans were stable with a slight increase. The supply - demand is weak, which gives the soybean price a certain resilience [1][3] - The domestic peanut futures price oscillated yesterday. The peanut spot market showed a slightly stronger trend last week, with the trading atmosphere warming up and the price center gradually moving up. The shortage of peanuts at the grassroots level and the delay of the new - season sowing progress due to drought have an impact on the market [4] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Soybean Analysis - **Market Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the bean - one 2507 contract was 4194.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 31.00 yuan/ton (- 0.73%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible beans was A07 - 34, a change of + 31 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market News**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%. In the domestic market, the prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [2] - **Market Situation**: The domestic soybean futures price declined slightly. The prices of domestic soybeans in various regions were stable with a slight increase due to less remaining grain and extremely low market inventory. The downstream procurement willingness was weak, resulting in a significant decline in reserve auction volume and lower procurement volume of downstream factories. The weak supply - demand situation gave the soybean price a certain resilience [3] Peanut Analysis - **Market Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8372.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 20.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.24%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8500.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 80.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.95%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 - 372.00, a change of - 20.00 (+ 5.68%) month - on - month [4] - **Market News**: The prices of peanuts in different regions were reported, such as 4.35 - 4.40 yuan/jin for Henan Huangludian Baisha common peanuts [4] - **Market Situation**: The domestic peanut futures price oscillated. The peanut spot market showed a slightly stronger trend last week. The low supply at the grassroots level and the delay of new - season sowing due to drought affected the market [4]