新华财经纽约10月7日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价7日涨跌不一。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.2美元，比前一交易日下跌2美 分，跌幅为0.47%；小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.07美元，比前一交易日下跌6美分，跌幅为1.17%；大 豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.22美元，比前一交易日上涨4.25美分，涨幅为0.42%。 玉米、大豆期价反弹再次在主要移动平均线附近停滞。由于美国出口需求即将出现季节性下降，且南半 球作物收割将于11月开始，小麦期货也难有起色。美国政府关门导致近期美国农业部作物生长、出口以 及最终单产数据发布延迟，市场成交量低迷。本周剩余时间，市场很可能呈现震荡走势。 由于11月至1月中国不会购买美国大豆，美国资产负债表依然沉重。市场分析机构不建议追逐日线走 势。 国际作物年度从10月1日开始，未来几周市场将密切关注世界玉米贸易。 巴西9月份大豆出口量为730万吨，高于去年同期的640万吨；玉米出口量为760万吨，高于去年同期的 640万吨。 天气预报显示，未来4-5天，美国平原南部和艾奥瓦州，威斯康星州将迎来降雨，新播种的硬红冬小麦 ...

乌克兰将2026年冬小麦播种面积预估上调9%，至至少1280万英亩。新增小麦播种面积将使乌克兰2026 年冬小麦产量达到2500万吨，出口供应增加200万吨。 美国能源信息署1日发布的数据显示，美国上周乙醇产量为2.93亿加仑，较前一周减少800万加仑；乙醇 库存减少3000万加仑至9.86亿加仑；上周美国原油日消费量为852万加仑，与去年持平。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.17美元，比前一交易日上涨1 美分，涨幅为0.24%；小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.09美元，比前一交易日上涨1.25美分，涨幅为 0.25%；大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.13美元，比前一交易日上涨11.25美分，涨幅为1.12%。 经过几天下跌，芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价当天反弹上涨。 随着价格逐渐下跌，农产品期价基本面比市场反应的更为悲观。全球小麦期货价格已远超季节性低点形 成的时间，预计玉米、大豆季节性低点将出现在收获季的后半段。除非南美出现严重天气问题，否则收 获季后的任何反弹都将较为温和。 随着收割工作向北部和西部推进，美国玉米、大豆单产在提高。市场分析机构预计 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Palm oil has no upward or downward drivers, and inventory pressure needs to be released [1]. - Argentina has temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, causing US soybeans to fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures during the day session was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and 9,152 yuan/ton at night with a -2.22% decrease. For soybean oil futures, it was 8,366 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.46% increase and 8,172 yuan/ton at night with a -2.32% decrease. Rapeseed oil futures closed at 10,143 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.74% increase and 10,073 yuan/ton at night with a -0.69% decrease. The Malaysian palm oil futures (BMD) closed at 4,442 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.41% increase and 4,369 ringgit/ton at night with a -1.67% decrease. The CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 49.63 cents/pound with a -1.96% decrease [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 561,707 lots, an increase of 7,050 lots, and the open interest was 403,883 lots, a decrease of 7,931 lots. For soybean oil futures, the trading volume was 290,066 lots, a decrease of 41,585 lots, and the open interest was 569,350 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots. Rapeseed oil futures had a trading volume of 275,428 lots, a decrease of 36,699 lots, and an open interest of 366,477 lots, an increase of 14,048 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 90 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 344 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 783 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 994 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 206 yuan/ton, of soybean oil was 288 yuan/ton, and of rapeseed oil was 505 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. Different institutions had different estimates of Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20: ITS reported 1,010,032 tons, an increase from the previous month; AmSpec reported 941,984 tons, an 8.3% increase; SGS estimated 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease [3][4][5][6]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12%. The defoliation rate was 61%. As of the week ending September 18, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the market forecast. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year was 1,569,777 tons, higher than the same period last year [6]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 0.9% of the expected total area, the same as the previous year. In the first three weeks of September, Brazil exported 4,719,426.05 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume 8.20% higher than that of September last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association plans to invest 59 billion reais (11.1 billion US dollars) in the next 12 months, which will increase the soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [7]. - **Argentina**: On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches 7 billion US dollars. In August, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 3,904,901 tons, with a soybean oil output of 759,356 tons and a soybean meal output of 2,830,752 tons [7][8]. - **Canada**: A canola oil transshipment facility in Canada, invested 150 million Canadian dollars (109 million US dollars) by DP World, has started full - scale operation, increasing the export capacity by 1 million tons per year [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9].

美国农业部11日发布的出口检验报告显示，截至8月7日一周，美国玉米出口检验量为5870万蒲式耳，大 豆出口检验量1900万蒲式耳，小麦出口检验量1340万蒲式耳。 本作物年度，美国玉米累计出口检验量24.85亿蒲式耳；大豆累计出口检验量17.77亿蒲式耳；小麦累计 出口检验量1.604亿蒲式耳。 天气预报显示，一高压脊从美国西南部向东南部移动，打开了墨西哥湾湿气流向美国中部地区的通道。 另一高压脊在延伸范围内向西移动，将给美国中部地区带来新的阵雨、雷暴天气。 新华财经纽约8月11日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价11日多数上涨。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.0775美元，比前一交易日上涨 2.25美分，涨幅为0.55%；小麦9月合约收于每蒲式耳5.1450美元，较前一交易日持平；大豆11月合约收 于每蒲式耳10.1025美元，比前一交易日上涨22.75美分，涨幅为2.30%。 美国总统特朗普深夜发文，盼中国大幅增加美大豆订单，大豆期价随之上涨，拉动芝加哥期货交易所 （CBOT）农产品期价走强。 当天芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价上涨，预示着美国农业部将于1 ...

分析认为，虽然美国8月初至中旬天气较冷，但前一日的风暴灾害不会对中西部玉米、大豆作物产生实 质性影响，这导致芝加哥农产品期价当天走低。 另外，最新的天气预报显示，堪萨斯州、东北部东部以及中西部东部大部分地区未来6-10天将迎来降 雨。整个美国中部地区8月上旬将迎来温和气温。凉爽的气温加上充足的地下土壤墒情，有利于作物生 长。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约7月29日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价29日全线下跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳410.75美分，比前一交易日下跌 3.25美分，跌幅为0.79%；小麦9月合约收于每蒲式耳529.75美分，比前一交易日下跌8.75美分，跌幅为 1.62%；大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳1008.25美分，比前一交易日下跌3.25美分，跌幅为0.32%。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-22 现货价格整体上涨，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 政策变化 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3069元/吨，较前日变动+13元/吨，幅度+0.43%；菜粕2509合约2727元/吨，较前 日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-99， 较前日变动-13；江苏地区豆粕现货2890元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-179，较前日变动-3；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2860元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-209，较前日变动-13。福建地区菜粕现货价格2720 元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM09-7，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，预计2025年7月份巴西大豆出口量1219万吨，高于一周前预估的1193 万吨，低于6月份的出口量1350万吨；预计2025年巴西大豆出口量1.1亿吨，同比增加约1300万吨，超过2023年的历 史峰值1.013亿吨。美国全国海洋大气管理局预报显示，7月22-26日期间，美国大豆主产区北部地区 ...

油料日报 | 2025-07-02 花生现货实际交易量不大，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4127.00元/吨，较前日变化-14.00元/吨，幅度-0.34%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+153，较前日变化+14，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘互有涨跌，呈现近弱远强的趋势，其中基准期约收 高0.3%。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌3.50美分到上涨3.50美分不等，其中7月期约下跌3.50美分，报收1024.25美分/蒲 式耳;8月期约下跌3.50美分，报收1029.75美分/蒲式耳;11月期约上涨2.25美分，报收1027美分/蒲式耳。隔夜美农发 布两份重要报告，种植面积报告及季度库存报告。USDA 将 2025 年美国大豆种植面积调整为 8338 万英亩，低于 3 月的 8349.5 万英亩，也低于分析师约 8365.5 万英亩的平均预估。本次预估的大豆种植面积将较 2024 年的 8705 万英亩减少 4.2%。6 月 1 日的大豆库存总量为 10.08 亿蒲式耳，高于市场预期的 9.8 亿蒲式耳，较去年同期增长 3. ...

软商品日报 2025/06/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a decline, with soybean meal futures showing a notable drop in price, indicating potential challenges in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Data - Argentina's soybean exports in May reached 1,224,096.07 tons, while soybean meal exports totaled 2,339,966.64 tons [2]. - On June 20, the total soybean meal transaction volume in major oil mills across the country was 138,800 tons, a decrease of 30,525 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions at 43,700 tons [2]. - As of June 12, the USDA reported that net sales of soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 160,000 tons, down from 215,000 tons the previous week, while net sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 14,000 tons, down from 47,000 tons [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures noted that the current basis quote for soybean meal in Guangdong is -150, with weather conditions in key soybean-producing areas expected to be unfavorable for soybean growth in the coming weeks, leading to a potential short-term increase in soybean meal prices [3]. - According to the USDA's weekly crop progress report, as of June 8, 90% of the U.S. soybean planting was completed, compared to 84% the previous week and 86% the same time last year, with the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans dropping from 68% to 66% [3]. - Shengyin Wanguo Futures indicated that domestic oil mills have significantly increased their operating rates, which is expected to accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal stocks, while the cost support from imported soybeans suggests that soybean meal prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that favorable weather conditions in the central United States have led to a decline in the prices of corn, wheat, and soybeans at the Chicago futures exchange [1] - On June 20, 2023, corn prices fell by 4.75 cents to $4.29 per bushel, wheat prices dropped by 7 cents to $5.84 per bushel, and soybean prices decreased by 7.5 cents to $10.61 per bushel [1] - Market analysts expect the condition of U.S. corn and soybean crops to remain stable and improve, despite the recent price declines [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. has not signed new trade agreements, with many countries' 10% tariff deadlines approaching on July 9, and there are no public arrangements for new trade talks between the U.S. and China [1] - The USDA reported that as of the week ending June 12, U.S. wheat export sales were 15.7 million bushels, corn export sales were 35.6 million bushels, and soybean export sales were 19.8 million bushels [1] - For the current crop year, cumulative U.S. wheat export sales reached 233 million bushels, an increase of 34 million bushels year-on-year; corn export sales totaled 2.631 billion bushels, a 26% increase; and soybean export sales reached 1.805 billion bushels, an 11% increase [2] Group 3 - Due to the absence of Chinese buyers, U.S. new crop soybean sales are at the second-lowest level in history [3] - Weather forecasts indicate that rain will cover the northern plains and parts of the Midwest and Canadian prairies over the next 10 days, with high temperatures in the central U.S. continuing until June 24 [3] - These weather conditions are favorable for crop growth, which may further influence market dynamics [3]