Core Viewpoint - Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans experienced a broad increase on October 31, with significant price movements across all commodities [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.32 per bushel, up 1.25 cents or 0.29% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract closed at $5.34 per bushel, rising 9.75 cents or 1.86% [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract settled at $11.15 per bushel, increasing by 7.5 cents or 0.68% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in soybean and wheat prices was accompanied by stable corn prices, as U.S. farmers sold off large inventories amid the price surge [1] - Market analysts suggest that futures and spot prices may have peaked this week, with potential declines expected if South American weather conditions remain normal [1] - The January soybean futures contract is considered to be significantly overbought according to market analysts [1] Group 3: External Factors - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is expected to end within the first ten days of November, increasing pressure for a resolution [1] - U.S. biodiesel production of soybean oil decreased to 1.041 billion pounds in August from 1.108 billion pounds in July, with projections for August 2024 at 1.271 billion pounds [1] - Ethanol production in the U.S. for August was reported at 1.407 billion gallons, slightly lower than the 1.409 billion gallons produced in the same month last year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans experienced an overall increase in prices on October 23, 2023, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics despite ample global grain reserves [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.28 per bushel, up 5 cents or 1.18% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract settled at $5.13 per bushel, rising by 9.25 cents or 1.84% [1] - The November soybean contract reached $10.45 per bushel, increasing by 10 cents or 0.97% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - South American weather forecasts are nearly ideal, with spring planting progressing steadily [1] - U.S. farmers still have 5 billion bushels of corn left to harvest, contributing to a robust supply [1] - Global grain reserves are sufficient, posing a risk for future price declines, leading market analysts to maintain a bearish outlook on agricultural futures prices and recommend selling on rallies [1] Group 3: Import Activities - Turkey has initiated a tender for the import of 250,000 tons of feed barley, with a deadline for bids set for October 30 [1] Group 4: Weather Impact - Weather forecasts indicate significant rainfall in northern Brazil from late October to early November, which may affect agricultural activities in the region [1] - Strong rainfall is expected to move northward on October 29-30, impacting parts of Mato Grosso and the surrounding areas, followed by regular tropical rainfall across Brazil [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates mixed price movements in the Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans on October 7, with corn and wheat prices declining while soybean prices increased slightly [1] - The most active December corn contract closed at $4.20 per bushel, down 2 cents or 0.47% from the previous trading day; the December wheat contract closed at $5.07 per bushel, down 6 cents or 1.17%; and the November soybean contract closed at $10.22 per bushel, up 4.25 cents or 0.42% [1] - The corn and soybean prices are experiencing a rebound but are stagnating near major moving averages, with expectations of a seasonal decline in U.S. export demand and the upcoming harvest in the Southern Hemisphere starting in November [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in the release of crop growth, export, and final yield data from the USDA, resulting in low market trading volumes [1] - It is anticipated that the market will likely exhibit a volatile trend for the remainder of the week [1] - The international crop year began on October 1, and the market will closely monitor global corn trade in the coming weeks [1] Group 3 - Brazil's soybean exports in September reached 7.3 million tons, up from 6.4 million tons in the same period last year; corn exports were 7.6 million tons, also higher than last year's 6.4 million tons [1] - Weather forecasts indicate that the southern plains of the U.S. and states like Iowa and Wisconsin will receive rainfall in the next 4-5 days, which will benefit newly planted hard red winter wheat [2] - The rainfall is expected to have minimal impact on grain harvesting in the Midwest [2]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Chicago futures market saw a broad increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on October 1, with December corn closing at $4.17 per bushel, up 1 cent (0.24%) from the previous day [1] - December wheat contract closed at $5.09 per bushel, rising 1.25 cents (0.25%), while November soybean contract reached $10.13 per bushel, increasing by 11.25 cents (1.12%) [1] - The rebound in agricultural futures prices follows several days of decline, indicating a more pessimistic fundamental outlook than market reactions suggest [1] Group 2: Production and Yield Forecasts - As harvesting progresses in the northern and western regions of the U.S., corn and soybean yields are expected to improve [1] - Market analysts predict key support levels for December corn futures between $3.95 and $4.03, for November soybean futures between $10.40 and $10.60, and for December wheat futures at $4.90 [1] Group 3: Ukraine Wheat Production - Ukraine has raised its 2026 winter wheat sowing area estimate by 9% to at least 12.8 million acres, which is expected to increase winter wheat production to 25 million tons and export supply by 2 million tons [2] Group 4: U.S. Ethanol Production - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease in ethanol production to 29.3 million gallons last week, down by 8 million gallons from the previous week, with ethanol inventory dropping by 30 million gallons to 986 million gallons [2] - U.S. daily crude oil consumption remained stable at 8.52 million gallons compared to the previous year [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Palm oil has no upward or downward drivers, and inventory pressure needs to be released [1]. - Argentina has temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, causing US soybeans to fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures during the day session was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and 9,152 yuan/ton at night with a -2.22% decrease. For soybean oil futures, it was 8,366 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.46% increase and 8,172 yuan/ton at night with a -2.32% decrease. Rapeseed oil futures closed at 10,143 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.74% increase and 10,073 yuan/ton at night with a -0.69% decrease. The Malaysian palm oil futures (BMD) closed at 4,442 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.41% increase and 4,369 ringgit/ton at night with a -1.67% decrease. The CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 49.63 cents/pound with a -1.96% decrease [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 561,707 lots, an increase of 7,050 lots, and the open interest was 403,883 lots, a decrease of 7,931 lots. For soybean oil futures, the trading volume was 290,066 lots, a decrease of 41,585 lots, and the open interest was 569,350 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots. Rapeseed oil futures had a trading volume of 275,428 lots, a decrease of 36,699 lots, and an open interest of 366,477 lots, an increase of 14,048 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 90 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 344 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 783 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 994 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 206 yuan/ton, of soybean oil was 288 yuan/ton, and of rapeseed oil was 505 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. Different institutions had different estimates of Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20: ITS reported 1,010,032 tons, an increase from the previous month; AmSpec reported 941,984 tons, an 8.3% increase; SGS estimated 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease [3][4][5][6]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12%. The defoliation rate was 61%. As of the week ending September 18, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the market forecast. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year was 1,569,777 tons, higher than the same period last year [6]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 0.9% of the expected total area, the same as the previous year. In the first three weeks of September, Brazil exported 4,719,426.05 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume 8.20% higher than that of September last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association plans to invest 59 billion reais (11.1 billion US dollars) in the next 12 months, which will increase the soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [7]. - **Argentina**: On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches 7 billion US dollars. In August, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 3,904,901 tons, with a soybean oil output of 759,356 tons and a soybean meal output of 2,830,752 tons [7][8]. - **Canada**: A canola oil transshipment facility in Canada, invested 150 million Canadian dollars (109 million US dollars) by DP World, has started full - scale operation, increasing the export capacity by 1 million tons per year [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that corn, wheat, and soybean prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange mostly increased on August 11, with corn and soybean prices rising due to external factors such as President Trump's comments urging China to increase soybean orders [1] - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.0775 per bushel, up 2.25 cents or 0.55% from the previous trading day [1] - The September wheat contract remained unchanged at $5.1450 per bushel, while the November soybean contract rose by 22.75 cents or 2.30% to $10.1025 per bushel [1] Group 2 - The USDA's export inspection report released on August 11 showed that for the week ending August 7, corn export inspections totaled 58.7 million bushels, soybean inspections were 19 million bushels, and wheat inspections were 13.4 million bushels [1] - Cumulative export inspections for the current crop year are reported as 2.485 billion bushels for corn, 1.777 billion bushels for soybeans, and 160.4 million bushels for wheat [1] Group 3 - Market analysts express skepticism regarding whether corn prices have reached an annual low, especially in light of the upcoming crop report and world agricultural supply and demand forecast from the USDA [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans experienced a decline on July 29, with all major contracts falling in price [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The most active December corn contract closed at 410.75 cents per bushel, down 3.25 cents, a decrease of 0.79% from the previous trading day [1] - The September wheat contract settled at 529.75 cents per bushel, down 8.75 cents, reflecting a decline of 1.62% [1] - The November soybean contract ended at 1008.25 cents per bushel, decreasing by 3.25 cents, which is a drop of 0.32% [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts believe that despite cooler weather in the U.S. from early to mid-August, the previous day's storm damage will not have a significant impact on corn and soybean crops in the Midwest, contributing to the decline in futures prices [1] - Recent weather forecasts indicate that Kansas, northeastern regions, and most of the eastern Midwest will experience rainfall in the next 6-10 days, which is expected to benefit crop growth [1] - The entire central U.S. is anticipated to have moderate temperatures in early August, with cool temperatures and adequate soil moisture conditions favorable for crop development [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current growth of the new - season US soybeans is good, with the improvement of the soybean good - to - excellent rate exceeding expectations and surpassing last year's level and historical average. The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to continue, and despite a decline in the sown area, high yields are likely to lead to a bountiful harvest. In China, oil mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, while the aquaculture industry is in a seasonal consumption off - peak. The overall supply is relatively loose, and spot prices remain stable. However, due to macro - sentiment, the soybean meal futures prices rose last week. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans, as tariff policies will significantly affect prices [3] - In the domestic corn market, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available grain in circulation has become scarcer. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and purchase on - demand, while deep - processing enterprises also adjust their quotes slightly when purchasing as needed. The decreasing成交 rate of imported corn auctions has weakened its impact on market prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3069 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.43%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.18%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M09 - 99, down 13 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M09 - 179, down 3; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M09 - 209, down 13. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM09 - 7, up 5 [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.26%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C09 + 0, down 6; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS09 + 76, down 6 [4] 3.2 Recent Market News - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects soybean exports in July 2025 to be 12.19 million tons, higher than the previous estimate but lower than June's exports. The expected annual exports in 2025 are 110 million tons, an increase of about 13 million tons year - on - year, exceeding the 2023 record [2] - The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that from July 22 - 26, rainfall in the northern part of the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than normal, while in some southern states, it will be close to or slightly below normal [2] - As of July 16, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 78.9%, with an average yield of 7.39 tons per hectare, and a cumulative harvest of 40.4 million tons [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - For soybean meal, the good growth of new - season US soybeans, combined with favorable weather forecasts, is likely to result in a bumper harvest. In China, the supply is loose due to oil - mill inventory accumulation and weak demand in the aquaculture off - season. The futures price increase was influenced by macro - sentiment. Policy changes and new - season soybean growth are key factors affecting prices [3] - For corn, the reduction of available grain in circulation in the domestic market is due to concentrated sales. Feed and deep - processing enterprises purchase on - demand, and the weakening impact of imported corn auctions on prices [5] 3.4 Strategies - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is cautiously bearish [4][6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Views - The price of domestic soybeans oscillated yesterday. The remaining soybeans at the grass - roots level are only about 1% - 2%, and farmers with soybeans are asking for high prices. The prices of soybean rough grains in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins are basically stable, while the prices of clean grains are slightly decreasing. The inventory of grain trading enterprises is tight, and some enterprises' quotations are firm. The downstream demand is weak, and the net grain loading prices of some enterprises are slightly reduced as the new - season soybeans are approaching [2] - The price of peanuts oscillates. The market continues the stalemate of weak supply and demand, with prices running weakly and steadily in a narrow range, and the overall trading atmosphere is light [3] Group 3: Soybean Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the soybeans 2507 contract yesterday was 4127.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.34% [1] Spot - The basis of edible soybeans was A07 + 153, a change of + 14 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] Market Information - On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with a near - weak and far - strong trend, and the benchmark contract closed up 0.3%. The July contract fell 3.50 cents to 1024.25 cents/bushel; the August contract fell 3.50 cents to 1029.75 cents/bushel; the November contract rose 2.25 cents to 1027 cents/bushel [1] - USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than the 83.495 million acres in March and the average analyst estimate of about 83.655 million acres. This estimated soybean planting area will be 4.2% less than the 87.05 million acres in 2024 [1] - The total soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [1] Group 4: Peanut Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8200.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 44.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.54% [3] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts was 8980.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. The spot basis was PK10 + 100.00, a change of - 44.00 from the previous day, a decrease of 30.56% [3] Market Information - As of June 26, 2025, the average price of national common peanuts was 9000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous week [3] - The current prices of common peanuts in different regions are: 4.65 - 4.70 yuan/jin in Huangludian, Henan; 4.15 yuan/jin in Linyi, Shandong; 4.60 - 4.65 yuan/jin in Changtu, Liaoning; 4.55 - 4.60 yuan/jin in Xingcheng, Liaoning; 4.6 - 4.65 yuan/jin in Jilin [3]

Report Overview - Date: June 25, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures' near - month contract hit a 4 - year low on Tuesday due to good production prospects and falling crude oil. Short - term Zheng sugar prices follow the external market but are supported by the previous low. Pay attention to the support level at 5600 [3]. - **Cotton**: With stable Sino - US policies and a demand off - season, cotton price rebound is limited. However, due to low imported cotton volume, Xinjiang cotton destocking is fast. By the end of the year, supply - demand may tighten, narrowing the downside space. Pay attention to the pressure at 13600 and support at 13000, as well as the off - season destocking speed [16]. - **Apple**: Affected by seasonal fruits, apple sales are limited. In Shandong, packaging is limited by the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the main supply is from northern Shaanxi and secondary areas are mostly cleared. New - season apples are in the bagging period. Shandong's bagging quantity is slightly more than last year, while the western region's is estimated to be less, with an overall estimated production cut of 5% - 8%. Monitor bagging numbers [21]. - **Jujube**: The first - round girdling in southern Xinjiang jujube - growing areas is ending. Due to high fruit - hanging in the 24/25 season and recent high temperatures, the first - crop fruit quantity is low. The second - crop fruit is the main contributor to the yield. Pay attention to the impact of high temperatures on the second - crop fruit. Currently, prices are stable with light trading [29]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices**: SR01 closed at 5577 with a daily increase of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 0.76%; SR03 at 5552 (0.33% daily, 0.74% weekly); SR05 at 5529 (0.24% daily, 0.58% weekly); SR07 at 5766 (0.38% daily, 0.6% weekly); SR09 at 5757 (0.82% daily, 1.37% weekly); SR11 at 5635 (0.68% daily, 0.84% weekly); SB at 16.33 (-1.15% daily, -0.73% weekly); W at 467.4 (0.15% daily, -0.47% weekly) [4]. - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 was 39 (-9 daily, -6 weekly); SR05 - 09 was -194 (0 daily, -12 weekly); SR09 - 01 was 155 (9 daily, 18 weekly); etc [4]. - **Basis**: For example, Nanning - SR01 was 485 (10 daily increase, 9 weekly increase); Kunming - SR01 was 305 (15 daily increase, -6 weekly increase) [11]. - **Import Prices**: Brazilian import quota - within price was 4450 (57 daily increase, -26 weekly increase), quota - outside was 5653 (75 daily increase, -33 weekly increase); Thai import quota - within was 4460 (45 daily increase, -38 weekly increase), quota - outside was 5665 (59 daily increase, -50 weekly increase) [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13625 (40 increase, 0.29%); Cotton 05 at 13605 (50 increase, 0.37%); Cotton 09 at 13645 (35 increase, 0.26%); Yarn 01 at 19990 (120 increase, 0.6%); Yarn 05 at 20055 (-100% change); Yarn 09 at 19995 (90 increase, 0.45%) [17]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis was 1273 (-156 daily); Cotton 01 - 05 was 30 (0 daily); Cotton 05 - 09 was -55 (-60 daily); etc [18]. Apple - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 7586 (0.21% daily, 0.84% weekly); AP03 at 7603 (0.04% daily, 0.6% weekly); AP04 at 7651 (-0.14% daily, 0.87% weekly); etc [22]. - **Spot Prices**: For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4.1 (0% daily and weekly); Luochuan semi - commodity 70 was 4.8 (0% daily and weekly) [22]. - **Price Spreads**: AP01 - 05 was -135 (7.14% daily, -0.74% weekly); AP05 - 10 was 31 (3.33% daily, 82.35% weekly); AP10 - 01 was 104 (8.33% daily, -12.61% weekly) [23]. Jujube - **Production Situation**: The first - round girdling in southern Xinjiang is ending. Due to high fruit - hanging last season and high temperatures, first - crop fruit is limited. Second - crop fruit is crucial. Temperatures may remain high this week, with a weekend drop and a subsequent rise, posing challenges to new - season yield [29]. - **Market Situation**: No arrivals in Guangzhou Ruyifang market yesterday, 3 arrivals in Hebei Cuierzhuang market. Downstream trading is light with sporadic deals, and spot prices are stable [29].