关于中金公司吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券预案的点评 吸并预案公布，一流投行建设加速推进 中金公司(3908) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： 吸并有望显著提升综合实力，协同效应预计主要体现在扩大客户基础和吸并资产效 率提升。 投资要点： 催化剂：并购进展；行业供给侧改革推进。 风险提示：权益市场大幅波动；行业供给侧改革推进不及预期。 | 财务摘要(百万港元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 22,990 | 21,333 | 25,176 | 27,726 | 29,949 | | (+/-)% | ...

第四艘万亿券商航母下水了！ 12月17日晚，中金公司、东兴证券、信达证券三家同步发布重磅公告，酝酿了将近一个月的"巨无霸合 并"亮出具体方案，三家公司都在12月18日正式复牌。每股东兴证券、信达证券能换取中金公司股票的 比例，分别确定为1:0.4373、1:0.5188。 根据公告，中金公司与东兴证券、信达证券已就吸收合并达成初步意向。 此次交易以中金公司向东兴证券及信达证券全体股东发行A股股票的形式展开，实现换股吸收合并。 关于换股细节，中金公司A股换股价格为36.91元/股，东兴证券A股换股价格为16.14元/股（较基准价溢 价26%），信达证券A股换股价格为19.15元/股。由此计算，东兴证券与中金公司的换股比例为 1:0.4373，信达证券与中金公司的换股比例为1:0.5188。 这些精准的数字，也给投资者们为评估这次合并的价值提供了参考意见。 同时，为保护中小投资者，东兴证券、信达证券的异议股东享有现金选择权，中金公司的异议股东可行 使收购请求权，中央汇金等主要股东也承诺将相关股份锁定36个月。 交易后，中金公司将承继及承接东兴证券、信达证券的全部资产、负债、业务、人员、合同、资质以及 其他一切权利 ...

该行指出，虽然换股并购令中金2026财年的每股盈利及每股净值分别稀释21%和13%，然而，由于合拼 有助于解除中金的资本限制，透过扩大市场份额产生协同效应，并提高成为大型券商的机会，从而受惠 于潜在的资本放松与新业务试点计划，因此相信市场对合拼的反应正面，花旗表示，由于供给侧加快推 进改革，预期其他券商的股价亦将上扬，或可稳定收费率并提升潜在股东权益回报率(ROE)。 花旗发布研报称，中金公司（601995）(03908)计划以换股吸收方式合并东兴证券（601198） (601198.SH)及信达证券（601059）(601059.SH)。中金拟发行近31亿股A股，每股东兴A股可换取0.4373 股中金A股;每股信达A股可换取0.5188股中金A股。 ...

该行指出，虽然换股并购令中金2026财年的每股盈利及每股净值分别稀释21%和13%，然而，由于合拼 有助于解除中金的资本限制，透过扩大市场份额产生协同效应，并提高成为大型券商的机会，从而受惠 于潜在的资本放松与新业务试点计划，因此相信市场对合拼的反应正面，花旗表示，由于供给侧加快推 进改革，预期其他券商的股价亦将上扬，或可稳定收费率并提升潜在股东权益回报率(ROE)。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，中金公司(03908)计划以换股吸收方式合并东兴证券(601198.SH) 及信达证券(601059.SH)。中金拟发行近31亿股A股，每股东兴A股可换取0.4373股中金A股;每股信达A 股可换取0.5188股中金A股。 ...

合并后，中金公司将成为行业第四家总资产跨入"万亿俱乐部"的券商。业内人士普遍认为，中金公司合并东兴 证券、信达证券，正是剑指国际一流投行建设的决心体现。 然而，规模跃升只是表象。有非银分析师指出，此次合并的关键逻辑并非简单的资产叠加，而是资源与能力的 结构性互补。在业内人士看来，中金公司在资本运用、财富管理、跨境业务等方面的领先优势，将与东兴、信 达在区域网络、特殊资产投行等领域的布局形成协同，强化竞争优势。 定价细节明确，交易提升核心竞争力 11月19日，中金公司公告筹划重大资产重组，拟同时吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券，预计停牌时间不超过25个 交易日。如今备受关注的合并预案方案终于出台，要早于原预计复牌时间。 根据公告，中金公司拟通过向东兴证券全体A股换股股东发行A股股票、向信达证券全体A股换股股东发行A股 股票的方式，换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券。 备受市场瞩目的中金公司吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券，迎来重要进展。 12月17日，上述三家上市券商齐发公告：每股东兴证券、 信达证券 能换取中金公司股票的比例，分别确定为 1:0.4373、1:0.5188。此外，三家公司股票将于12月18日复牌。 总资产跨越 ...

Group 1 - Dongguan Securities has undergone a significant personnel change with the appointment of Pan Haibiao as the new chairman, following the resignation of Chen Zhaoxing for personal reasons [2][4] - Pan Haibiao has a long history with Dongguan Securities, having joined in 2004 and previously serving as president before his departure in May 2024 [4][5] - The company has seen impressive performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with operating income reaching 2.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.27%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 98.68% to 964 million yuan [5] Group 2 - The securities industry has experienced frequent high-level personnel changes this year, driven by factors such as retirement and the optimization of business layouts [6][7] - Recent notable changes include the appointment of new chairpersons and executives at various firms, indicating a trend of internal promotions and external talent acquisition [7][8] - Mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry have also led to management changes, as seen in several recent high-profile deals [8]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.03%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.11% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3867.20 points, with a trading volume of 59.73 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12903.91 points, with a trading volume of 99.08 billion [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3041.20 points, with a trading volume of 39.65 billion [2] External Market - U.S. stock markets opened higher and closed with gains, marking four consecutive days of increases. The Dow Jones rose by 0.67% to 47427.12 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.69% to 6812.61 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.82% to 23214.69 points [3] - The VIX index, known as the "fear index," dropped approximately 35% over four days, marking its largest decline since mid-April [3] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks saw gains, with Vipshop up 2.54%, Pinduoduo up 1.58%, and JD.com up 0.96% [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities reported that the dairy price is stabilizing, with steady supply and demand post-holidays. The dairy product demand remains under pressure, but deep processing and overseas expansion show rapid growth potential [6] - CITIC Securities also noted that the beef cattle price is expected to have upward potential due to supply reduction pressures anticipated in 2026 [6] - Dongwu Securities highlighted the growing demand for AI computing power solutions, indicating a robust market space for infrastructure related to AI, with optimism for investment opportunities in the optical interconnection supply chain [7][8] Mergers and Acquisitions - CITIC Securities reported that the integration of leading brokerages is accelerating, driven by supply-side reforms. Recent announcements from China International Capital Corporation, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities indicate a planned merger to enhance competitiveness in the industry [5] - This merger is seen as a key step in resource consolidation among top brokerages, further strengthening the market position of Chinese brokerages globally [5]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a major asset restructuring involving China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities indicates a significant consolidation in the securities industry, potentially creating a new major player with assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Company Mergers - CICC is planning to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through the issuance of A-shares, leading to a merger of the three companies [1] - If the merger is successful, the combined asset scale will reach 1,009.5 billion yuan, positioning the new entity as the fourth largest in China's securities industry [1] - The merger reflects a trend of increasing consolidation in the securities sector, with several recent high-profile mergers and acquisitions [1][2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The securities industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions driven by regulatory support and the need for larger firms to enhance their competitive edge [2] - Larger brokerages are acquiring smaller firms to fill gaps in their service offerings and achieve economies of scale, while smaller firms aim to grow rapidly through mergers [2] - The shift from "land grabbing" to "fine cultivation" in strategy indicates a more competitive landscape, necessitating firms to improve their comprehensive capabilities [2] Group 3: Challenges of Integration - The integration of merged firms poses significant challenges, including the need for cultural integration, business system coordination, and organizational structure optimization [3] - The success of the merger will depend on the management's ability to create synergies that exceed the sum of the individual companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant decline on November 21, with over 5,000 stocks falling, leading to a 2.45% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell below 3,900 points, and a 4.02% drop in the ChiNext Index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The securities sector followed the market trend, with the leading securities ETF (560090) dropping 3.45%, reflecting a bearish sentiment with two consecutive days of decline [1] - Despite the overall market downturn, the securities ETF (560090) attracted over 100 million yuan in capital inflow over the past five days, indicating active buying interest [1] Group 2: Securities Sector Analysis - Nearly all component stocks of the securities ETF (560090) experienced declines, with notable drops including over 5% for Industrial Securities and over 4% for Huatai Securities and GF Securities [3] - The securities sector has seen a slight decline of 0.79% year-to-date, but the net profit growth for the first three quarters reached 62%, highlighting its high growth potential despite current low valuations [5] Group 3: M&A Activity and Future Outlook - The recent merger activity, particularly the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), is expected to reignite investor interest in securities stocks [6][7] - Analysts are optimistic about the long-term growth potential and valuation recovery of the securities sector, driven by active market trading and a stable capital market environment [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of the announcement by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) regarding the proposed stock swap merger with Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, which led to significant fluctuations in the brokerage sector [1] - Despite the brokerage sector's underperformance in the short term, there is a bullish outlook from a medium to long-term perspective, with expectations of a divergence between stock prices and earnings since 2025 [1] - The brokerage ETF (159842) saw a net inflow of 217 million yuan and an increase of 18.6 million shares, indicating investor interest despite the overall market downturn [1] Group 2 - The brokerage ETF (159842) tracks the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, which consists of up to 50 securities companies' stocks to reflect the overall performance of the industry [1] - The recent merger activity is viewed as a potential catalyst for market momentum, while long-term observations will focus on supply-side adjustments and their effects on the return on equity (ROE) of leading companies [1]