2026 年 1 月 4 日，广东博众以 "启新·聚势·致远" 为主题，成功举办 2026 资本市场投资年会。本次年会 汇聚博众大阳金融研究所多位资深投资顾问，围绕宏观经济新周期、产业升级新动能等前瞻议题深度研 讨，为投资者洞察趋势、明晰方向，解锁 2026 年投资脉络与实战策略。 主题演讲： 聚焦宏观经济 解析多热门赛道机遇 上午场主题演讲亮点突出，广东博众大阳金融研究所刘涛老师在主题演讲中指出，宏观分析的关键在于 研判资金流动与基本面的关系。当前A股估值与集中度仍具提升空间，市场处于后房地产时代的转型 期，科技等新兴行业成为焦点。2026年牛市仍在前半程，投资应"顺势而为"，紧跟经济转型与主力配置 方向。 广东博众首席投顾胡立利老师以《聚焦央国企 2026 开篇机遇》为题，指出央国企是2026年的市场主 线。"十五五"规划与国企改革提供政策支撑，其超400万亿市值是慢牛基石，兼具低估值与高分红优 势。在新质生产力发展中承担关键角色的央国企，将成为2026年值得长期关注的核心标的。 广东博众首席投顾刘冰老师聚焦 AI 分支中的人形机器人赛道。他表示，该赛道是2026年预期差与弹性 最大的方向之一。国内企业已 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising to over 90% since November, indicating a new norm of "overnight same direction, intraday reverse" [2][11][45] - Both the U.S. and Chinese economies are in a phase of "limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk," with the U.S. core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment [2][13][47] - The Chinese economy shows signs of a bottom in corporate profits, while domestic demand is weakening, creating a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [2][13][47] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two notable characteristics: first, "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) are performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][18][52] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, as evidenced by the negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][18][52] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by supply-demand dynamics, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [2][19][53] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The articles published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasize the importance of consumer demand as a primary focus for expanding domestic demand, highlighting the need for a complete domestic demand system [3][24][58] - The strategy includes enhancing secondary distribution to increase residents' net transfer income and optimizing primary distribution to improve labor income, with potential reforms in state-owned enterprises to guide wage adjustments [3][25][58] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. show that periods of rising resident income lead to increased service and new-type consumption, indicating that the current "income increase plan" may boost demand for service consumption and technology-driven durable goods [3][27][58] Group 4: Preparing for 2026 - The current market conditions, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggest a shift in investment strategy towards "physical demand-driven" and "domestic demand policy dividends" as more certain avenues for growth [2][39][40] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage that will benefit from increased consumer spending [2][32][39] - The non-bank financial sector (insurance, brokerage) is expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and domestic manufacturing sectors [2][32][39]

大手笔分红。 12月18日，海天味业(603288.SH)公告称，公司制定未来三年（2025-2027年）股东回报规划，规划指出，公 司每年度现金分红总额占当年归属于母公司股东净利润的比例不低于80%。该规划尚需提交股东会审议。 同时，公司实行2025年回报股东特别分红预案：每10股派发现金红利3.0元（含税）。 截至董事会审议通过本次特别分红预案之日，公司总股本 5,851,824,944股，扣除回购专用证券账户中的股 份数量 5,289,491 股，以此计算拟派发现金红利的股本基数为 5,846,535,453 股，拟派发现金红利 1,753,960,635.90 元（含税）。 此外，中金公司(601995.SH)公告称，公司2025年半年度利润分配方案已经2025年第一次临时股东大会审议 通过。以总股本48.27亿股为基数，每股派发现金红利人民币0.09元（含税），共计派发现金红利人民币 4.34亿元（含税）。股权登记日为2025年12月26日，除权（息）日和现金红利发放日均为2025年12月29 日。H股股东的2025年中期股息派发事宜不适用本公告。 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 除权(息) 日 ...

第四艘万亿券商航母下水了！ 12月17日晚，中金公司、东兴证券、信达证券三家同步发布重磅公告，酝酿了将近一个月的"巨无霸合 并"亮出具体方案，三家公司都在12月18日正式复牌。每股东兴证券、信达证券能换取中金公司股票的 比例，分别确定为1:0.4373、1:0.5188。 根据公告，中金公司与东兴证券、信达证券已就吸收合并达成初步意向。 此次交易以中金公司向东兴证券及信达证券全体股东发行A股股票的形式展开，实现换股吸收合并。 关于换股细节，中金公司A股换股价格为36.91元/股，东兴证券A股换股价格为16.14元/股（较基准价溢 价26%），信达证券A股换股价格为19.15元/股。由此计算，东兴证券与中金公司的换股比例为 1:0.4373，信达证券与中金公司的换股比例为1:0.5188。 这些精准的数字，也给投资者们为评估这次合并的价值提供了参考意见。 同时，为保护中小投资者，东兴证券、信达证券的异议股东享有现金选择权，中金公司的异议股东可行 使收购请求权，中央汇金等主要股东也承诺将相关股份锁定36个月。 交易后，中金公司将承继及承接东兴证券、信达证券的全部资产、负债、业务、人员、合同、资质以及 其他一切权利 ...

本来走得好好的A股，午后突然快速反攻。什么原因呢？ 是证券的大幅反攻带来的效果，如果不是证券从水逆到快速反攻，今天的走势不会如此快速。 知道了原因，你想下场吗？ 坦率来说，这个走势跟我昨天直播间说到完全相反，我认为既然继续选择向下，这次会更加彻底，连续多跌几个交易日。 没想到今天一个下午就给逆转了局势。我没看懂，还是不玩儿。 期货上锂矿涨幅超7%，稳稳站在了10万块上方，终于达到这个关键的价格关口。 不过我没有动手，之前认为锂矿的性价比不合适，现在依旧没有考虑下场。 第二：白酒再度走低 虽然今天午后三市大涨反攻，但似乎没有白酒什么事情，白酒依旧自顾自下跌。 我上周尝试了点，然后持续等待，有更合适的机会，继续上车即可。 第三：证券快速反攻 今天的反攻，是证券给的，从下跌超0.6%，到涨幅超2%，证券用时不足半小时。可见这波反攻之猛烈。 确实太突然了，我只是浅尝辄止，没有考虑增加，当然也没有时间来考虑增加。 不知道有没有朋友斩获颇丰的？恭喜了。开心享受炒股带来的乐趣吧。 我是李聪，10年读书会主理人，活到老、学到老，关注我，一起向上成长！ 以上仅为个人看法，不作为任何建议！ 板块上： 第一：锂矿大涨 ...

进展神速，中金公司在停牌20个交易日之后，披露吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券预案。 17日晚间，中金公司公告称，公司与东兴证券、信达证券正在筹划由中金公司通过换股方式吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券。公司A股股票于2025年12月18日 开市起复牌。本次交易方案尚需公司另行召开董事会再次审议及股东会审议批准，并取得相应批准、核准、注册或同意后方可实施。 与此同时，此次中金合并东兴证券、信达证券预案也浮出水面。 中金公司公告称，公司与东兴证券、信达证券正在筹划由中金公司通过换股方式吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券。中金公司的A股换股价格为36.91元/股，东 兴证券的A股换股价格为16.14元/股，信达证券的A股换股价格为19.15元/股。根据上述价格，东兴证券、信达证券与中金公司A股的换股比例分别为 1:0.4373、1:0.5188。 东兴证券获得26%溢价 值得注意的是，在本次吸收合并中，东兴证券获得26%溢价，而信达证券并没有这一"特殊待遇"。 中金公司在公告中透露，本次交易中中金公司的换股价格按照定价基准日前20个交易日的A股股票交易均价确定，东兴证券的换股价格按照定价基准日前20 个交易日的股票交易均价并给予 26 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2025年12月17日晚间，中金公司（601995.SH、03908）与东兴证券 （601198.SH）、信达证券（601059.SH）同步披露重大资产重组预案，中金公司换股吸收合并两家公 司迎来重大进展，并拟于12月18日复牌。 本次交易后，中金公司将实现跨越式发展，预计总资产规模超万亿元，营业收入跻身行业前列，资本实 力显著增强，综合竞争力与服务实体经济能力得以切实提升，在建设金融强国的国家战略指引下，加快 实现打造"具有国际竞争力的一流投资银行"的战略目标。 根据交易预案，本次交易定价以各方董事会决议公告日前20个交易日均价作为基准价格，吸收合并方中 金公司作为存续主体，换股价格为36.91元/股，被吸收合并方东兴证券换股价格为16.14元/股，信达证 券换股价格为19.15元/股。该交易方案充分体现了两家公司资产价值，并有利于平衡各方股东利益。 根据上述价格，东兴证券、信达证券与中金公司A股的换股比例分别为1:0.4373与1:0.5188。东兴证券与 信达证券全部A股参与换股，以此计算，中金公司预计将新发行A股约30.96亿股。 为保护中小投资者权益，中金公司A股及H股异议股东可 ...

2025 年香港资本市场延续强势复苏。根据港交所最新披露数据显示，11 月香港市场在市值、交投与新股活动等多项指标均较去年同期显著改善。 其中证券市场总市值于 2025 年 11 月底达 48.0 万亿港元，较去年同期的 34.0 万亿港元大增 41%，反映市场估值正快速修复，投资气氛显着回暖。 百惠金控指出，受惠于全球流动性改善、南向资金持续涌入以及新经济企业估值回升，香港市场正逐步重返国际资本中心核心位置。市场交投量保持活跃， 科技与金融板块成为主要推动力，而资金对港股的重新配置意愿明显提升。 单计 11 月，证券市场平均每日成交额达 2,307 亿港元，按年升 43%；而首 11 个月的日均成交额达 2,558 亿港元，更大增 95%，进一步突显市场流动性显著 改善。 今年 IPO 市场更展现强劲爆发力。2025 年首 11 个月，香港已经共有 93 家新上市公司，较去年同期的 61 家上升 52%；同期香港IPO市场的总集资额达 5,750 亿港元，按年大增 2.3 倍。不论是上市数量或募资规模，均在全球主要交易所中名列前茅。百惠金控认为，以目前增速，香港极有机会继续稳坐 全球 IPO 募资王的位置。 ...

Group 1 - Tianfeng Securities received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding an investigation for suspected violations of information disclosure and illegal financing [1] - The company stated that its operations are currently normal and it will cooperate with the CSRC during the investigation while adhering to legal and regulatory disclosure obligations [1] - Tianfeng Securities was established in 2000 and is the only provincial state-owned securities company in Hubei, listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in October 2018 [4] Group 2 - As of the first three quarters of 2025, Tianfeng Securities reported revenue of 2.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.53%, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4] - The total assets of Tianfeng Securities reached 92.496 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 64.571 billion yuan as of the end of the third quarter of 2025 [4] - The company has faced multiple regulatory penalties this year for compliance issues, including warnings from the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau for its asset management subsidiary [4][5] Group 3 - As of November 28, 2023, Tianfeng Securities' stock price was 4.83 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 48.7 billion yuan [6]