1月6日，创业板人工智能震荡走低，光模块CPO概念股回调明显，新易盛、中际旭创均跌超3%。存储芯片、AI应用方向则表现活跃，北京君正领涨超 8%，同花顺涨超7%，中科创达、铜牛信息、光环新网等多股跟涨超3% 热门ETF方面，流动性突出的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）早盘震荡下挫逾2%，现跌幅收窄至0.49%，实时成交额超7亿元，资金盘中净申购超1亿份。 3、供应链潜在新玩家。更多速率、更多产品、更多客户需求释放的催化下，更多供应商有望切入北美CSP大厂的核心供应链中，释放更大成长性。 2025年复盘看，光模块CPO、AI应用接连发力，双线布局算力+AI应用的创业板人工智能指数持续领跑，指数年内涨幅高达106.35%，实现翻倍增长，大幅 领跑人工智能、CS人工智能、科创AI等同类AI主题类指数！ | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | 年化波动率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 2025-1-1 [区间尾日] 2025-12-31 | [起始交易日期] 2025-1-1 [截止交易日期] 2025-12-3 ...

1月6日，创业板人工智能震荡走低，光模块CPO概念股回调明显，新易盛、中际旭创均跌超3%。存储 芯片、AI应用方向则表现活跃，北京君正领涨超8%，同花顺涨超7%，中科创达、铜牛信息、光环新 网等多股跟涨超3% 热门ETF方面，流动性突出的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）早盘震荡下挫逾2%，现跌幅收窄至 0.49%，实时成交额超7亿元，资金盘中净申购超1亿份。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 · | | | | | F9 盘用盘后 露加 九轮 图线 工具 零 (3 > | | | 创业板人工智能ETF华室 | 159363 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.044 | | | | | 159363(加量极人工智能ETF华盒] 14:12 价 1.016 涵数 -0.004(-0.39%) 均价 1.007 服交量 9424 IOPV | | | | 1.016 | | -0.004 -0.39% | | | | | | | | | | | SZ ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026 年通信投资机会梳理:算力为核,卫星为翼 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2026 年通信板块中有哪些值得关注的投资机会? 2026 年通信板块中,我们认为有五个方向具有较好的投资机会,分别是光互联、 商业航天、端侧 AI、液冷和光纤光缆。首先,光互联是我们持续推荐的方向, 其底层逻辑在于北美数据中心建设热情高涨,这将持续释放互联需求。预计 2026 年至 2027年,英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 等新型号芯片的需求将快速增长。此外, 从带宽扩展来看,光模块将从 800G 演进到 1.6T,新技术落地速度加快,如 OCS、 CPO 和 NPO 等新一代光互联方案将在 2026 年加速落地。 光互联板块未来两年的发展趋势如何? 光互联板块未来两年的发展趋势主要体现在两个方面:首先,带宽扩展趋势明确, 从 800G 演进到 1.6T 。市场对 800G 和 1.6T 的需求增长迅速,尤其在 2027 年 1.6T 争 匆 · 北美数据中心建设推动光互联需求,预计 2026-2027年英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 等芯片需求将快速增长,支撑 1. ...

紧缺物料卡位赛道。高速光模块需求的规模释放，对上游光芯片光器件等核心器件也将带来确定性较高 的需求增长，我们判断，由于扩产节奏的差异，关键物料或出现多阶段的供需错配状态，有望不断推高 板块景气度，建议关注源杰科技、仕佳光子、长光华芯、永鼎股份（600105）、德科立、腾景科技等 供应链潜在新玩家。更多速率、更多产品、更多客户需求释放的催化下，更多供应商有望切入北美CSP 大厂的核心供应链中，释放更大成长性，建议关注联特科技（301205）、炬光科技、长芯博创 （300548）、汇绿生态（001267）等。 商业航天进入发展快车道，建议重点关注通信相关方向。"十五五"规划建议将商业航天列为战略性新兴 产业，商业航天有望迎来黄金发展期。展望2026年行业将迎来多重催化，特别是多枚可回收/大载量的 商业火箭密集首飞，我们判断火箭运力将有望迎来显著提升，从而打通此前卫星通信发展的堵点。我国 低轨卫星互联网从2025年下半年已进入批量发射建设阶段，2026年有望迎来更大批量发射，产业发展进 一步加速。建议关注：信科移动、海格通信（002465）、通宇通讯（002792）、国博电子、陕西华达 （301517）、震有科技、 ...

近期，甬兴证券发布通信行业2026年策略，认为光互联技术持续发展，端侧AI场景日益丰富。 消息侧，全球算力需求及技术迭代利好产业链。海外云厂商资本开支快速提升，中国智能算力规模高速 增长。光互联技术演变发展推动产业链需求增长。未来800G和1.6T等高速光模块的需求有望快速增 长；Scale-up渗透率提升驱动数通光模块需求增长；硅光解决方案是光模块未来重要发展方向之一；全 光交换OCS技术赋能灵活拓扑与系统弹性，谷歌技术优势深厚；随着芯片功耗的快速提升，风冷散热逼 近极限，液冷渗透率有望快速提升。端侧AI应用驱动物联网产业发展。物联网市场稳健增长，端侧AI 成为新驱动力。AI玩具丰富个性化体验，多款产品上市；智能割草机器人渗透率仍处低位，市场增长 潜力较大；具身智能成为国家战略，市场规模不断扩大。卫星互联网政策不断，组网持续推进。卫星互 联网产业链全面，国内政策密集落地。国内卫星互联网进入产业化发展阶段，星座计划组网持续部署。 据弗若斯特沙利文报告，2024年，全球AI基础设施投资额由2020年的人民币1000亿元增加至人民币 5985亿元，复合年增长率为56.4%；预计到2029年，投资额将进一步增长至人 ...

Core Insights - The launch of OpenAI's GPT-5.2 aims to compete with Google's Gemini 3, marking a significant phase in the ongoing rivalry between the two AI giants [1][5] - Morgan Stanley and other financial institutions believe that the global AI infrastructure investment wave is just beginning, with potential investments reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 [4] - The competition between Google and OpenAI is expected to drive significant demand for AI computing infrastructure, particularly in data center interconnect (DCI), optical interconnect, and enterprise-level high-performance storage [4][6] Investment Themes - Morgan Stanley identifies three major investment themes benefiting from the AI competition: DCI, optical interconnect, and enterprise-level high-performance storage [1][3] - The DCI and optical interconnect sectors are crucial for both Google and OpenAI's AI training and inference capabilities, with companies like Arista, Cisco, and Lumentum being highlighted as key beneficiaries [3][6] - The storage sector is also poised for growth, with companies like Seagate and Pure Storage expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-performance storage solutions driven by AI applications [7][8] AI Model Developments - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 has achieved record performance in various benchmarks, including coding and scientific research, positioning it as a leading AI model in professional settings [5] - Google's Gemini 3 has generated significant AI token processing capacity, leading to increased demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) storage systems and enterprise SSDs [3][5] Market Dynamics - The competition between Google and OpenAI is seen as a catalyst for a broader AI boom, with implications for various sectors, including cloud computing and data storage [4][6] - The ongoing demand for AI infrastructure is expected to remain strong, with both companies investing heavily in their respective AI capabilities and infrastructure [1][4]

智通财经APP获悉，随着ChatGPT开发者OpenAI重磅推出在深度推理与代码生成上"强到离谱"GPT-5.2 以抗衡谷歌11月下旬推出的Gemini 3，谷歌与OpenAI之间的这场"AI巅峰对决"来到双方对决故事的高潮 章节。从投资层面来看，OpenAI与谷歌分别代表全球股市当下的两条最热门投资主线——即"OpenAI 链"以及"谷歌AI链"，在华尔街金融巨头摩根大通看来，股票市场有三大"超级投资主题"堪称谷歌 vs OpenAI这场可能持续多年交锋的"最强受益主题"，两者强强抗衡或者某一方进入绝对领先优势，对于 这三主题来说都是长期利好。 华尔街金融巨头摩根大通近日发布研报称，数据中心高速互联(DCI)、光互联与企业级高性能存储，至 少在全球AI算力产业链持续紧张的2026至2027年，将是同时受益于谷歌与OpenAI这两大AI超级巨头所 各自领衔的AI训练/推理算力需求激增的最核心三大投资主题。摩根大通表示，全球AI需求景气度仍然 非常强劲，并且该机构的分析师们对于谷歌、OpenAI以及微软、亚马逊等AI与云计算领军者们在2026 年至2027年的AI创收兑现路径总体呈现正面预期。 当我们拆解"Op ...

Core Insights - The market showed mixed performance with major indices fluctuating, while sectors like Hainan, retail, computing hardware, and commercial aerospace were active [1][11] - Over 2800 stocks declined, with total trading volume at 1.78 trillion, down 125.4 billion from the previous day [1][11] Group 1: Computing Hardware - Nvidia received approval from Trump to export H200 to China, positively impacting companies like Moer Technology, Changfei Optical Fiber, and others [12][16] - Haiguang Information terminated its merger with Zhongke Shuguang, which is a negative development for Zhongke Shuguang as the previous merger offered a 20% premium [5][16] - The focus on optical interconnection continues, emphasizing both vertical (Scale-Up) and horizontal (Scale-Out) expansion strategies [6][16] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX is advancing its IPO plans with a target valuation of approximately 1.5 trillion [12][16] - New materials such as aluminum-tantalum composites are being introduced by companies like Yinbang and West Materials to address challenges in space computing [7][18] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The Ministry of Commerce proposed promoting the experience of "Pang Donglai," impacting companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Hainan Development positively [13][15] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The market exhibited cautious behavior ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, leading to a weaker early session [3][14]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, while sectors such as computing hardware, commercial aerospace, Fujian, and retail showed active performance [1][11]. Market Overview - Over 4,000 individual stocks declined, with total market turnover at 1.9 trillion, a decrease of 132.7 billion compared to the previous day [2][12]. Sector Trends 1. Commercial Aerospace - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace" has been issued, benefiting companies like Aerospace Electromechanical, Reco Defense, Aerospace Development, Qianzhao Optoelectronics, Aerospace Science and Technology, Shunhao Co., and Superjet Co. [3][13]. 2. Computing Hardware - Trump approved Nvidia's export of H200 chips to China, with a 25% additional fee condition. This led to a broad increase in related stocks such as Dekoli, Zhishang Technology, Fuzhen Technology, International Composite Materials, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light, and Dongtian Micro [5][16]. - The H200 chip, set for mass production in the first half of 2024, is superior to domestic alternatives but is considered an older generation product. Nvidia is projected to hold a 42% market share in China's AI server chip market by 2025, primarily for training purposes [5][17]. 3. Consumer Sector - A meeting on December 8 emphasized the importance of domestic demand, positively impacting companies like Anji Food, Bona Film, Dongbai Group, Shuhua Sports, and Yonghui Supermarket [3][13]. Investment Sentiment - Following two consecutive days of gains, the market saw a slight adjustment, but the index pattern remains favorable, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend [4][14]. Sector Focus - The capacity stocks are concentrated in computing hardware and commercial aerospace, while speculative trading is focused on the consumer sector, particularly in Fujian and the Taiwan Strait [4][15]. Technology Developments 1. Computing Hardware - The approval of H200 chips is expected to benefit the computing sector, including computing rental services and IDC infrastructure such as power supplies, switches, and liquid cooling systems [5][17]. - The market is also considering geopolitical factors, particularly the future trajectory of Sino-U.S. relations [6][17]. 2. Optical Interconnection - The focus is on two expansion strategies: Scale-Up, which enhances the performance of individual devices, and Scale-Out, which increases the number of devices through distributed architecture [8][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the A-share market related to AI and optical modules, driven by companies like Google and their TPU technology, which has positively impacted the valuation logic of optical module firms in China. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share AI frenzy is focused on two main themes: chip manufacturing and connectivity, with companies like 中际旭创 (Inspur) and 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication) leading the charge in optical modules [1][2] - 中际旭创, 天孚通信, and 新易盛 (NewEase) have market capitalizations of 633.3 billion, 184.2 billion, and 402.1 billion respectively as of December 8 [1] - The historical average PE ratio for the communication industry is around 15-20, raising concerns about the high valuations of optical module companies, which have seen PE ratios of 40-80 [1][2] Group 2: Google's Impact - Google's TPU technology is reshaping the AI computing landscape and is expected to drive demand for optical modules, which are essential for data transmission [2][3] - The introduction of TPU v7, which can integrate up to 9,216 chips, necessitates a significant increase in optical module deployment to maintain low latency and high bandwidth [6][10] - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise due to Google's aggressive expansion plans, with projections indicating that 1.6T module shipments could exceed 25 million by 2026 [8][10] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major cloud companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, and the "Big Four" in the U.S. (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon), are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which is a key indicator of optical module demand [12][14] - The total capital expenditure for the "Big Four" is projected to reach $230 billion in 2024, a 55% increase year-over-year, further supporting the growth of the optical module market [12][13] - Forecasts suggest that capital expenditures will continue to rise, with a projected 35% increase in 2026, indicating sustained demand for optical modules [15] Group 4: Company Performance and Valuation - 中际旭创 reported a Q3 revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 56.83%, while 天孚通信 and 新易盛 showed lower-than-expected performance [22][23] - Despite mixed Q3 results, 中际旭创 is expected to receive a higher valuation due to its strong performance and the positive outlook driven by Google's TPU [24][25] - Analysts predict that 中际旭创's net profit will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 59% from 2025 to 2028, leading to a target price increase of 62% to 762 yuan [25][26]