Group 1 - The core logic of the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel (卷螺差) is rooted in the production cost differences, with current production cost differences ranging from 80 to 120 CNY per ton [1] - The price center of the price difference has been continuously rising from 2019 to 2024, reflecting the economic transformation in China, with a consistent upward trend in the price difference amid the decline in real estate and rapid expansion in manufacturing [2] - The concentration of the price difference has been increasing, indicating reduced volatility, particularly evident in 2023 and 2024, primarily due to the declining demand elasticity for rebar amid the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector [2] Group 2 - Supply-side factors significantly influence the price difference, with policy impacts on production being notable, especially in 2021 when production limits in Hebei led to a rapid contraction of the price difference [4] - Seasonal demand and the rapid resumption of electric furnace production are likely to lead to an expansion of the price difference in February and March, as rebar demand is more affected by the Spring Festival compared to manufacturing sectors [8] - The price difference has shown significant fluctuations over the years, with the maximum difference reaching 523 CNY per ton in 2021 and a minimum of -178 CNY in 2019, indicating a wide range of market dynamics [3] Group 3 - The strategy for 2025 suggests a focus on buying at the lower end of the production cost range due to overcapacity and the dynamic distribution of iron water between hot-rolled and rebar steel driven by profit changes [11][14] - Economic transformation is driving demand differentiation, with high-end manufacturing upgrades boosting plate demand while the ongoing decline in real estate continues to suppress construction material demand [14] - Export pressures are anticipated in the short term, but long-term demand may remain high due to China's cost advantages in steel production, despite potential impacts from anti-dumping measures and tariffs [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black series is mainly oscillating in the short term, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar tends to shrink. The fundamentals of finished products are moderately weak, with the total demand for the five major steel products stopping increasing and starting to decline, indicating that demand may have peaked. The inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils has slowed down, and its fundamental advantage relative to rebar has weakened. Traders with long positions in the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread should protect their profits. Overall, the pressure on the entire industrial chain, both upstream and downstream, has increased. Recently, macro risks have increased, causing greater fluctuations in the market. The valuation of the black series is relatively low, and industrial contradictions are currently limited. In the short term, a low-level oscillation approach is recommended. Future attention should be paid to domestic and foreign macro - economic changes. For RB2510, support around 3000 should be watched, and for HC2510, support around 3100 should be monitored [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The black series oscillated today, with finished products showing weak performance and a slight change in the closing price center. The fundamentals of finished products are moderately weak, with the total demand for the five major steel products peaking and starting to decline. The inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils has slowed, and its advantage over rebar has weakened. The overall pressure on the industrial chain has increased, and macro risks have led to greater market fluctuations. The black series is undervalued, and industrial contradictions are limited. A low - level oscillation strategy is recommended in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro changes. Support levels are around 3000 for RB2510 and 3100 for HC2510 [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The main rebar contract RB2510 opened at 3127 yuan/ton and closed at 3125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 opened at 3250 yuan/ton and closed at 3236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34%. In terms of positions, for the RB2510 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 9737 to 1116699 hands, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 2014 to 1122368 hands. For the HC2510 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 27774 to 989342 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 27195 to 850445 hands [5] - **Spot**: Domestic steel prices showed mixed trends today. The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton (unchanged). The trading atmosphere in the steel market was average [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the main rebar contract in Shanghai was 45 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil was 24 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton). The current basis is at a medium level compared to historical data [5] Fundamental Tracking - **Rebar**: From April 4th to April 11th, rebar production was 232.37 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.72 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. Apparent demand was 252.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.99 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 11.83%. Social inventory was 563.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.85 million tons, and factory inventory was 214.66 million tons, an increase of 7.54 million tons. Total inventory was 777.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.31 million tons. Rebar production showed a slight increase, but short - process production faced significant loss pressure, and the motivation for electric - arc furnace restart was insufficient. Demand recovery was slow, and inventory reduction was less than expected [6][8] - **Hot - rolled Coils**: From April 4th to April 11th, hot - rolled coil production was 313.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. Apparent demand was 315.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.99 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.75%. Factory inventory was 86.23 million tons, an increase of 0.98 million tons, and social inventory was 298.08 million tons, a decrease of 3.01 million tons. Total inventory was 384.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03 million tons. Both production and demand of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly. Inventory reduction slowed down, and the absolute inventory level was at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, with demand peaking and starting to decline [6][8]