1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ICE canola futures closed higher on September 10 but remained near the bottom of the downtrend since late June. The good weather and high excellent rate in the US soybean - producing areas bring supply - side pressure, but the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price. The market focuses on the USDA report this month, which is expected to lower the US soybean yield per acre. [2] - For rapeseed meal, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals in China reduces supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts its consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also affect the supply and price. [2] - For rapeseed oil, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is still loose, which restricts short - term prices. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also restricts purchases. The market is volatile due to international trade relations, and short - term participation is recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9893 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE canola futures was 628.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.8 Canadian dollars. [2] - Spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 346 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 147 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. [2] - Positions: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil were 286194 lots, up 31047 lots; those of rapeseed meal were 407316 lots, up 20610 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 18355 lots, up 12961 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 5220 lots, up 9 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 6953; that of rapeseed meal was 9.8. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10005 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7810.05 yuan/ton, up 75.88 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio was 3.71, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 47 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 63 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1410 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 720 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 10 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 13.06%, up 1.07 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit was 858 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 53.2 million tons, down 2.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 31.51 million tons, up 0.65 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 4.55 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 21.3 million tons, up 1.3 million tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.03 million tons, up 0.77 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 2.74 million tons, down 0.15 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.18%, down 1.16 percentage points; that of put options was 18.19%, down 1.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 13.01%, down 0.74 percentage points; that of put options was 13.03%, down 0.7 percentage points. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.15%, down 2.13 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 22.1%, up 0.12 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 8.26%, down 3.65 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.01%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - ICE canola futures closed higher on September 10 but remained near the bottom of the downtrend since late June. The 11 - month contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 628.10 Canadian dollars/ton, and the 1 - month contract rose 10.70 Canadian dollars to 640.70 Canadian dollars/ton. [2] - The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and high excellent rate bring supply - side pressure, but the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price. The market focuses on the USDA report this month, which is expected to lower the US soybean yield per acre. [2] - The US senator tried to stop the Trump administration from adjusting the renewable fuel obligation policy, which led to the decline of US soybean oil futures and affected the domestic vegetable oil market sentiment. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently at a game point between "high inventory, weak reality" and "production cut, strong expectation." In the short term, it is necessary to closely monitor the USDA report's tone on US soybeans, and the price of the rm2601 contract may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the supply gap expectation in the fourth quarter can be realized, and be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment fluctuations and unexpected news on prices [13] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 8, 2025, the rm2601 contract of rapeseed meal futures opened higher and fluctuated and adjusted, rising 0.24% from the previous day to close at 2542 points. The full - day trading volume was 371,400 lots, and the open interest was 393,500 lots [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - All contracts of rapeseed meal futures had different price changes throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 491,406 lots, an increase of 1,810 lots from the previous trading day [4] 1.3 Related Quotes - The total trading volume of rapeseed meal options throughout the day was 77,516 lots, the total open interest was 140,720 lots, with an increase of 4,741 lots in open interest, and the total number of exercises on the day was 0 lots [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - On September 8, the benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2,638.33 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed meal was 96.33 yuan/ton [8] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the newly registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal increased by 3,642 compared with the previous trading day, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,403 [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - China's imports of rapeseed and its products are highly dependent on Canada. From March to August 2025, China imposed anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed, resulting in a decrease in imports. The shortage of raw materials for coastal oil mills led to a sharp year - on - year decline in the production of rapeseed meal from Canadian rapeseed crushing, and there was also a significant decline in the import market, which supported the price of rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal is mainly used in aquaculture feed production. As the temperature gradually drops in September, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture will gradually decline, but it is still in the peak season of aquaculture, with a certain rigid demand for rapeseed meal [11] 3.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, the price of rapeseed meal futures showed a fluctuating trend on the day, and the price fluctuated between the 5 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average throughout the day. The high point position above and the 20 - day moving average suppressed the price. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through effectively [12] 4. Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal market is at a game point between "high inventory, weak reality" and "production cut, strong expectation." In the short term, closely monitor the USDA report's tone on US soybeans, and the price of the rm2601 contract may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, pay attention to whether the supply gap expectation in the fourth quarter can be realized, and be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment fluctuations and unexpected news on prices [13]

Core Viewpoint - China has decided to implement temporary anti-dumping measures on imported pork and pork products originating from the European Union (EU) due to substantial damage to the domestic industry caused by dumping practices [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation on EU-origin pork and pork products on June 17, 2024, following a request from the domestic industry [1]. - The investigation period was extended from June 10, 2025, to December 16, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Preliminary Findings - Preliminary findings indicate that EU-origin pork and pork products are being dumped, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry, with a causal relationship established between dumping and the harm [1]. - The preliminary tax rates for sampled companies are as follows: 15.6% for Spain's Litera Meat Company, 31.3% for Denmark's Crown Company, and 32.7% for the Netherlands' Vion Boxtel Company [1]. - Other cooperating EU companies will face a uniform tax rate of 20.0%, while non-cooperating companies will be subject to a rate of 62.4% [1]. Group 3: Trade Relief Measures - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized a cautious and restrained approach to trade relief measures, noting that no new investigations have been initiated against the EU since 2025 [2]. - The Ministry has concluded two anti-dumping cases related to brandy and urea-formaldehyde, while the EU has initiated six anti-dumping investigations against China during the same period [2]. - The Ministry expressed a willingness to resolve trade frictions through dialogue and cooperation with the EU to maintain the overall economic and trade cooperation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it's recommended to take a bullish approach and monitor the China - Canada talks. This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly higher. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may impact its exports and put pressure on prices. However, the Canadian Prime Minister's involvement in resolving the tariff dispute, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia, and strong palm oil export data in Malaysia support the market. Domestically, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oils is still relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure, and the anti - dumping measures weaken long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the near term [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, it's advisable to hold a bullish view and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated slightly higher. The Pro Farmer report shows a high expected US soybean yield, indicating supply pressure. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the market. Domestically, the low near - month rapeseed arrivals, the peak season of aquaculture, and the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The ongoing trade negotiations between China - Canada and China - US make the market cautious [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Rapeseed oil: The 01 contract closed at 9,818 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous week. It's recommended to be bullish and pay attention to China - Canada talks [8][9]. - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract closed at 2,550 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous week. It's recommended to be bullish and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [11][12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated lower, with a total position of 249,260 lots, down 14,341 lots from last week; rapeseed meal futures fell from a high, with a total position of 396,574 lots, down 17,596 lots from the previous week [17]. - Top 20 net positions: This week, the top 20 net position of rapeseed oil futures changed from net long to net short (- 2,779); the top 20 net position of rapeseed meal futures changed from net short to net long (+ 2,999) [23]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 6,028 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal are 6,761 lots [29][30]. - Spot price and basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,960 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis is + 142 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,540 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis is - 10 yuan/ton [36][42]. - Inter - month spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 158 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal is + 89 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [48]. - Futures - spot ratio: The ratio of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal 01 contracts is 3.85; the average spot price ratio is 3.92 [51]. - Price difference between rapeseed oil and other oils: The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil is 1,368 yuan/ton, with relative fluctuation this week; the 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - palm oil is 292 yuan/ton, narrowing this week [61]. - Price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal is 517 yuan/ton; as of Thursday, the spot spread is 430 yuan/ton [67]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Rapeseed supply: As of August 29, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 100,000 tons; the estimated arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 are 200,000, 130,000, and 150,000 tons respectively. As of September 4, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1,123 yuan/ton. By the 35th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills is 48,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate is 11.74%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85 tons [73][77][81]. - Rapeseed oil supply: By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 737,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 16,700 tons [89]. - Rapeseed oil demand: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 476,900 tons; as of July 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue is 450.41 billion yuan. By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 139,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.61% [93][97]. - Rapeseed meal supply: By the end of the 35th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal is 19,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.52%. In July 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [101][105]. - Rapeseed meal demand: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2,827,300 tons [109]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of September 5, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.53%, down 0.24% from last week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has determined that U.S. fiber optic manufacturers and exporters are circumventing anti-dumping measures by exporting G.654.C fiber optics to China, which will now be subject to the same anti-dumping duties as G.652 fiber optics starting from September 4, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The current anti-dumping tax rate for U.S. G.652 fiber optics is between 33.3% and 78.2%, which will now apply to G.654.C fiber optics as well [1] - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-circumvention investigation in March 2025 at the request of domestic companies, marking China's first such investigation [1][2] - The investigation revealed that U.S. exporters were using G.654.C fiber optics to bypass the anti-dumping measures on G.652 fiber optics, undermining the effectiveness of these measures [2] Group 2: Historical Context - The anti-dumping tax on U.S. G.652 fiber optics was first imposed in April 2011 for a period of five years, and it has been extended multiple times since then, with the latest extension announced in April 2023 [2] - The compatibility and substitutability between G.652 and G.654.C fiber optics have been highlighted as a key factor in the circumvention of the existing anti-dumping measures [2]

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney is committed to resolving the trade dispute with China regarding canola seeds, involving the international trade and foreign ministers [1] - China has implemented a temporary anti-dumping measure on Canadian canola seeds, requiring a 75% deposit, signaling a significant reduction in demand for Canadian canola [1] - Reports indicate that China has begun to order Australian canola seeds, with approximately 50,000 tons booked, marking the first import from Australia since 2020 [1] Group 2 - Historically, Canadian canola has dominated the Chinese import market, but now faces significant uncertainty as Australian canola may capture a substantial market share [2] - The Premier of Saskatchewan, Scott Moe, plans to visit China to discuss the canola seed issue, indicating proactive measures to address the trade challenges [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. fiber optic manufacturers and exporters are found to be circumventing existing anti-dumping measures by altering trade practices, specifically regarding the export of G.654.C single-mode fiber to China [2][3] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The current anti-dumping measures were first implemented on April 21, 2011, with a five-year duration, and were renewed on April 21, 2017, for another five years [2] - The anti-dumping tax rates for U.S. companies were adjusted to a range of 33.3% to 78.2% on July 10, 2018 [2] - The latest announcement on April 21, 2023, confirmed the continuation of anti-dumping duties for another five years starting April 22, 2023 [2] Group 2: New Regulations - Based on investigation results, the Ministry of Commerce proposed adjustments to the tax scope, which were accepted by the State Council Tariff Commission [3] - Starting September 4, 2025, the existing anti-dumping tax rates for non-dispersive single-mode fiber will also apply to G.654.C single-mode fiber imported from the U.S. [3] - Specific anti-dumping tax rates for companies are as follows: Corning Inc. at 37.9%, OFS-Fitel LLC at 3.3%, and Draka Communications USA at 78.2%, with other U.S. companies also facing a rate of 78.2% [3] - The implementation period for these anti-circumvention measures will last from September 4, 2025, to April 21, 2028 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-circumvention investigation regarding imported optical fiber products originating from the United States, marking the first such case in China [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - On March 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-circumvention investigation into single-mode optical fiber products with specific cutoff wavelength displacement, following a request from domestic companies [1] - The investigation process was conducted in a transparent manner, ensuring the rights of all stakeholders were protected [1] Group 2: Findings and Measures - Evidence indicated that U.S. exporters were circumventing China's anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fiber products by exporting related products to China [1] - As a result of the investigation, the Ministry of Commerce announced that anti-circumvention measures would be implemented starting September 4, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated anti-circumvention measures against imported optical fiber products originating from the United States, marking the first such investigation in China [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - On March 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-circumvention investigation into single-mode optical fiber products with specific cutoff wavelength displacement, following a request from domestic companies [1] - The investigation was conducted in a transparent manner, ensuring the rights of all stakeholders were protected [1] Group 2: Findings and Actions - Evidence indicated that U.S. exporters were circumventing China's anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fiber products by exporting related products to China [1] - As a result of the investigation, the Ministry of Commerce announced that anti-circumvention measures would be implemented starting September 4, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-circumvention investigation into imported single-mode optical fiber products originating from the United States, marking the first such investigation in China [1]. Group 1: Investigation Details - On March 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce launched the anti-circumvention investigation in response to applications from domestic companies [1]. - The investigation process was conducted in a transparent manner, ensuring the rights of all stakeholders were protected [1]. - Evidence indicated that U.S. exporters were circumventing China's anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive shift single-mode optical fiber products by exporting related products to China [1]. Group 2: Implementation of Measures - Following the investigation, the Ministry of Commerce announced that anti-circumvention measures will be implemented starting September 4, 2025 [1].