Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market in China dropped from a high level, with the spot price ranging from 11,500 to 11,900 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,900 and 12,000 yuan/ton as of September 11, 2025 [7]. - The supply of cis - butadiene rubber was sufficient this week. Although some private production plants stopped for maintenance, the inventory of producers and traders increased. Next week, the reduction in supply will gradually appear, and the inventory may decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [7]. - The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,400 and 12,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped from a high level, and the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies was reduced by 200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply reduction will be gradually reflected next week. After the price cuts of cis - butadiene rubber and butadiene, the spot price may drive some downstream enterprises to stock up, and the inventory may decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to maintain the current level with slight fluctuations [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,400 and 12,000 yuan in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 5.2% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 11, the spread between the 10 - and 11 - month contracts of butadiene rubber was 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,970 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of September 11, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 11, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 604 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.75 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: As of September 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week; the port inventory was 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons from last week [30]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of September 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68% from last week [33]. - **Production Profit**: As of September 11, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 34,510 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons from last week [40]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was between 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, but some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. With the raw material market being generally strong, some traders and downstream buyers have increased their purchases. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, while that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, the supply will decrease slightly, and the inventory of production enterprises and sample trading may decline. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited. The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, with the spot price between 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China at 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton as of September 4, 2025 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, and that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, some plants are expected to shut down for about 20 days, and the supply will decrease slightly. The overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 5, the spread between butadiene rubber contracts 10 - 11 was 5 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,770 tons, an increase of 280 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of September 4, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of September 4, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 592.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.38 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of September 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.45%, an increase of 0.54% from last week; the butadiene port inventory was 30,950 tons, an increase of 6,950 tons from last week [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from last month. As of September 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.16%, an increase of 0.31% from last week [35]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: As of September 4, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 462 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 5, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 31,910 tons, an increase of 190 tons from last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,650 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from last week; the inventory of traders was 7,260 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week [42]. 3.6 Downstream Market - **Tire开工率**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, an increase of 8.87% month - on - month and 11.48% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative increase of 7.18% year - on - year [48].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Market Weekly Report - Report Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated continuously, with the spot price ranging from 11,500 to 11,900 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and CNPC's mainstream sales companies increased by 100 yuan/ton [6]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has increased. Due to the influence of the surrounding market, the mainstream supply price has further increased, but the strong price - pressing procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises has led to slow terminal sales. Next week, the production capacity of some shut - down plants will be significantly released, and domestic supply may increase significantly, while the finished product inventory level is expected to rise [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. Next week, due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order growth, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline slightly [6]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2510 contract is expected to be between 11,600 and 12,000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated continuously, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of mainstream sales companies increased by 100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply may increase significantly next week, and the finished product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline slightly [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The short - term fluctuation range of the br2510 contract is expected to be between 11,600 and 12,000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.35% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of August 22, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 20 [17]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 22, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,490 tons, unchanged from last week [20]. Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of August 21, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of August 21, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: As of August 21, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 584.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 830 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - **Capacity Utilization and Inventory of Butadiene**: As of August 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.15%, a decrease of 1.11% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,300 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from last week [31]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month. As of August 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.15%, an increase of 0.95% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of August 21, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 458 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of August 22, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,610 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 250 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 7,410 tons, an increase of 420 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [45]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [48]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the report

Pricing and Market Trends - As of August 13, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,475 CNY/ton, an increase of 35 CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1,070 USD/ton [1] - The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong is 11,850 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton, with a price spread of -2,750 CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production reached 453,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, up by 5.5% [2] - Operating rates for butadiene industry is 69.8%, down by 0.3%; for high styrene-butadiene rubber, the rate is 68.2%, down by 5.9% [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 6, butadiene port inventory is 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 24,150 tons, up by 350 tons [3] - Trader inventory for styrene-butadiene rubber is 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons [3] Industry News - China National Petroleum Corporation's Jilin Petrochemical Company has commenced normal operations of a 200,000 tons/year butadiene unit; a 140,000 tons/year unit is scheduled for shutdown with restart time pending [4] - The latest butadiene inventory at East China ports is approximately 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period [4] Market Analysis - On August 13, commodity price increases narrowed, with BR following a slight decline; the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2509 closed at 11,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.13% [5] - Supply is expected to be ample due to the restart of facilities and ongoing maintenance; however, port inventories remain low [5] - Demand for semi-steel tires is under pressure, with high inventory levels and limited upward movement in operating rates [5]

Report Summary - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Despite cost support, supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart. There is a divergence in the negotiation focus between traders and downstream users in the spot market. Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly this week, while the trade enterprise inventory is expected to increase. The short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, and the BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,680 - 12,200 [2] Data Indicators Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract is 11,750 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the open interest is 26,557, down 130; the 9 - 10 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies ranges from 11,750 - 11,850 yuan/ton, with price changes from 0 - 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 100 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan; Brent crude oil is 825 dollars/barrel, down 0.51 dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.17 dollars/barrel, down 0.79 dollars; the price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 14.69 million tons, down 0.08 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.76%, down 0.21 percentage points; the port inventory is 14,700 tons, up 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.87%, down 1.33 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.25 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 68.17%, down 4.29 percentage points; the production profit is - 606 yuan/ton, down 231 yuan; the social inventory is 3.14 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the manufacturer inventory is 24,150 tons, up 350 tons; the trader inventory is 7,290 tons, down 230 tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.14 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% - As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points - In July 2025, the output of butadiene rubber in China is 12.92 million tons, up 0.67 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cost recently supports the offer price of butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the restart of maintenance devices. The negotiation focus of spot - end traders and downstream is divergent. The inventory of butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly last week. Although some production devices were shut down for short - term maintenance, the price center of the spot end is low due to the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment and arbitrage resources. This week, with the co - existence of device maintenance and restart, the supply is expected to change little. Under the shipping pressure, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to decline slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted in the short term, with limited overall fluctuation space. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,680 - 12,200 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 26,687, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,401. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 75 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $66.63 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.04; WTI crude oil is at $63.96 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.08. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $825 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $5; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) is $568 per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.5; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) is $1,070 per ton, with no week - on - week change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 146,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 14,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.87%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 68.17%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 606 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 231 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 31,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 24,150 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 350 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 7,290 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.35%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage point; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage point. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.37 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.45 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.81 days [2]. Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of China's high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points. In July 2025, China's butadiene rubber output was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2]. 4. Focus - No news is reported today.

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 11, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1070 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11700 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2880 yuan/ton and a basis of -85 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In July, China's butadiene production was 453,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.5%; semi-steel tire production was 56.97 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, but a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; full-steel tire production was 12.75 million units, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - As of August 7, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 69.8%, a decrease of 0.3%; high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 68.2%, a decrease of 5.9%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 69.7%, a decrease of 0.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 60.1%, an increase of 1.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of August 6, butadiene port inventory was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; traders' inventory was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.1% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on August 11, Qixiang Tengda's 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since August 1 and is expected to restart soon; China National Petroleum Corporation's Jilin Petrochemical Company is currently in the commissioning phase of its 200,000 tons/year butadiene unit [4] Market Analysis - On August 11, commodity prices rose, with natural rubber strengthening, boosting BR prices. The main contract for synthetic rubber BR2509 closed at 11,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% compared to the previous day's settlement price. On the cost side, the Maoming Petrochemical butadiene unit is restarting, and Fushun Petrochemical plans maintenance, while Jilin Petrochemical is in the commissioning phase, indicating a potentially ample domestic supply. Additionally, port inventories remain relatively low, with expected concentrated imports arriving in late August, limiting the downside for butadiene in the short term. Supply-side dynamics show a mix of unit restarts and maintenance, with a slight expected increase in styrene-butadiene rubber supply and limited inventory depletion. Demand-side pressures persist, particularly for semi-steel tires, which maintain high inventory levels, complicating production rate increases. Overall, while the cost side has limited downside, the supply-demand balance for BR remains loose, suggesting a wide fluctuation in prices [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 12,000 in the short - term [8] - This week, the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong market stopped falling and consolidated, with a range of 1,1300 - 1,1800 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton [9] - In the near future, the cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the restart of maintenance devices. There are differences in the negotiation focus between spot traders and downstream. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly this week. Next week, the supply is expected to change little, the inventory of producers is expected to decline slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase [9] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly, and in the short - term, it may be mainly adjusted slightly with limited overall fluctuation [9] Group 2: Futures Market - This week, the price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.52% [13] - As of August 8th, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [20] - As of August 8th, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,490 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared with last week [23] Group 3: Spot Market - As of August 7th, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [27] - As of August 7th, the basis of butadiene rubber was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton compared with last week [27] Group 4: Upstream Market - As of August 7th, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 571 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.88 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, the same as last week [31] - As of August 8th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.76%, a decrease of 0.21% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared with last week [35] Group 5: Industry Situation - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month. As of August 7th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 68.17%, a decrease of 4.29% compared with last week [39] - As of August 7th, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 229 yuan/ton compared with last week [42] - As of August 7th, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,440 tons, an increase of 120 tons compared with last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons compared with last week [46] Group 6: Downstream Market - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [49] - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% month - on - month and 7.31% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,121,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1500 to 1,2300 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has weakened, and the trading center of butadiene rubber is under pressure due to shipment pressure. After the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin next week, the domestic supply increase will gradually appear, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will increase. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will tend to increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly this week, but the overall shipment performance was lower than expected at the end of the month, and the finished product inventory increased slightly. There is an expectation that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises will decline in the short term [6]. - The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1800 - 1,2800 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber price in Shandong market fluctuated after rising, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber was raised by 500 yuan/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was between 1,2200 and 1,2300 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply side has weakened. After the restart of some enterprises next week, the supply will increase, and the shipment pressure on the spot side will rise. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may decline in the short term [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1800 and 1,2800 in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 6.16% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided in the summary scope. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of July 25, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 25, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,390 tons, an increase of 290 tons compared with last week [20]. Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of July 24, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,2100 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3. Industry Conditions Upstream - **External Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of July 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.56 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of July 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04% compared with last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared with last week [30]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons compared with last month. As of July 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42% compared with last week [34]. - **Production Profit**: As of July 24, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton compared with last week [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,320 tons, an increase of 70 tons compared with last week. The inventory of manufacturers was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with last week; the inventory of traders was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons compared with last week [40]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, the cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [46]. 4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant content found

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Raw material butadiene price support for butadiene rubber has weakened, and domestic supply is expected to increase due to the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - late July. Downstream buyers are pressing for lower prices, which may lead to higher inventory of production enterprises. The tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has recovered, and the orders in the middle and late stages are expected to increase slightly, with the overall short - term start - up rate expected to have little fluctuation. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,250 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,995 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the position of the main contract is 14,993, down 2,221; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical have increased, with increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The butadiene production capacity is 147,700 tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 67.96%, down 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, down 3,600 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, down 0.33 percentage points; the production profit is - 632 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The production of full - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces this month, up 800,000 pieces; the production of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces this month, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2] Industry News - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points month - on - month and down 11.96 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points month - on - month and up 3.92 percentage points year - on - year. In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks were about 533,300 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]