Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 11,560.0 yuan, with a current price of 11,455.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.19% [1] - New Lake Futures indicated that the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are generally weak, with high production, weak demand, and difficulty in inventory reduction leading to thin profits [1] - The price of synthetic rubber is closely related to the raw material butadiene, which is currently in a maintenance season, making significant recovery in supply unlikely [1] Group 2 - Ruida Futures forecasted that the BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 to 11,300 yuan in the short term [2] - The supply of butadiene is relatively sufficient, which weakens the cost support for the production of styrene-butadiene rubber [2] - Domestic tire manufacturers' capacity utilization rates have continued to decline, and while some companies are resuming operations, overall orders remain weak, leading to slow inventory reduction [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price declined and then rebounded. The spot - futures price difference widened, and the raw material trading improved, but the downstream demand was weak [8]. - Recently, the production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased but there are still losses. Some private enterprises may further reduce production. Under the influence of weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are selling at a loss. The inventory of producers increased slightly this week, while that of traders decreased slightly [8]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline this week. After the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday, most enterprises have resumed production, but the overall orders of tire enterprises are average, and the inventory removal is slow. Some enterprises still have maintenance plans, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price declined and then rebounded. The mainstream sales company lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton. As of June 5, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: The production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased but there are still losses. The inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline. After the holiday, most enterprises have resumed production, but the overall orders are average, and some enterprises still have maintenance plans [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose by 1.39% this week [12]. - As of June 6, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 145 [20]. - As of June 6, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 5,950 tons, a decrease of 260 tons from last week [23]. - **Spot market** - As of June 5, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - As of June 5, the basis of butadiene rubber was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of June 5, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 557.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - As of June 6, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.08% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from last week [34]. - **Industry** - In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons from last month [38]. - As of June 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 67.25%, a decrease of 6.29% from last week [38]. - As of June 5, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - As of June 6, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from last week [46]. - **Downstream** - As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46 percentage points from the previous week and 16.12 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points from the previous week and 5.94 percentage points from the same period last year [49]. - In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a decrease of 7.14% from the previous month and an increase of 6.11% from the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative tire export volume was 2,645,500 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.01% from the same period last year [52]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.

5月28日盘中，合成橡胶期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至11155.0元。截止发稿，合成橡胶 主力合约报11210.0元，跌幅3.24%。 机构 核心观点 方正中期期货 合成橡胶或弱势盘整 瑞达期货（002961） br2507合约短线预计在11250-11850区间波动 方正中期期货：合成橡胶或弱势盘整 天然橡胶板块走强提振合成橡胶市场情绪，期价在支撑位附近有所止跌，但成本端支撑延续弱化。今日 丁二烯现货价格持续下调，主要受下游需求偏弱影响，成交不足拖拽其价格下行。合成橡胶期价近日波 动剧烈，当前市场观望氛围偏浓，需求方谨慎关注原料端行情走势及主流供方价格政策指引，采购积极 性不高。现货市场价格缺乏有效支撑，且仍有部分老仓单低价资源流通，整体买盘延续低价跟进且难有 放量。在丁二烯期价止跌企稳之前，合成橡胶向上驱动不足。但值得关注的是，合成橡胶仓单将在6月 集中注销，当前主力虚实盘比快速大幅走强，不排除到时多头资金交易仓单题材。【交易策略】天胶走 强提振合成胶市场情绪，但基本面利好驱动不足，合成橡胶或弱势盘整，但仓单风险值得关注。操作上 建议暂时观望，BR主力支撑位11400-11500，压力位118 ...