Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the airline sector, highlighting the potential for price recovery driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [6][10]. Core Insights - In September 2025, the airline industry experienced a significant increase in passenger load factors, with domestic and international routes reaching record highs. The combined ASK/RPK for six listed airlines grew by 4.0% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the tight supply-demand relationship, with a notable recovery in business travel demand contributing to price increases. The domestic passenger load factor reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [4][13]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a critical phase where supply constraints may lead to sustained price improvements, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors and Pricing - The report indicates that high passenger load factors in September have led to price increases, with domestic economy class ticket prices rising by 2.4% year-on-year. International ticket prices, however, saw a decline of 15.2% [4][13]. - The domestic load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019, reflecting strong demand recovery [4][12]. Fleet Expansion - The total fleet of the six listed airlines increased by 0.3% in September 2025, with a net addition of 11 aircraft. The primary models introduced were the A320 and B737 series [5][24]. - China National Airlines led the fleet expansion with a net increase of 5 aircraft, while Eastern Airlines added 2 aircraft during the same period [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the sustainability of price improvements in the fourth quarter, particularly for business routes. The recovery in business travel is expected to enhance investor sentiment in the sector [5][24]. - Key airlines to watch include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with domestic airlines focusing on low growth in capacity while increasing investment in international routes. The supply remains tight with a net fleet growth rate below 3%. The passenger load factor has improved year-on-year and compared to the same period in 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to 2019 levels. Ticket prices have turned positive during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with demand remaining robust. The fourth quarter is expected to see improvements in year-on-year comparisons due to a low base from the previous year, which will support the recovery of unit revenue for airlines [12][13][36]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines due to the expected recovery in unit revenue and profitability [13][36]. Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices - The passenger load factor remains high, with the industry achieving a load factor of 87.5% in August 2025, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points compared to 2019. Domestic turnover increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while international and regional routes have recovered to 100.4% of 2019 levels [15][19]. - Ticket prices have shown a positive trend, with the average domestic ticket price reaching 942 RMB during the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of only 1.5%. The average ticket price for early October 2025 was up 2.2% year-on-year [4][23]. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average aviation fuel price in October 2025 was 5572 RMB per ton, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year. The Brent crude oil price has also decreased, with an average of 64.25 USD per barrel in October, down 16.7% year-on-year. The Chinese Yuan has appreciated against the US Dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.0968 RMB per USD as of October 16, 2025 [5][36][40]. Airline Operations and Fleet Growth - Airlines have continued to invest in international capacity, with domestic and international passenger load factors remaining high. In September 2025, the domestic load factor for major airlines showed significant year-on-year increases, with China Eastern Airlines leading with a 3.4 percentage point increase compared to 2019 [41][44]. - In terms of fleet growth, Air China had the highest net increase in aircraft in September 2025, adding 5 aircraft, while other airlines also showed modest growth [6][41].

Group 1: Operational Performance - In September 2025, the company's passenger capacity (measured in available seat kilometers) increased by 1.91% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes showing changes of -5.57%, 25.43%, and -31.79% respectively [1] - The passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) rose by 4.85% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes experiencing changes of -3.84%, 37.10%, and -24.94% respectively [1] - The overall passenger load factor was 86.07%, an increase of 2.42% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes showing changes of 1.61%, 6.77%, and 7.90% respectively [1] Group 2: Month-on-Month Performance - In September 2025, domestic passenger capacity (available seat kilometers) decreased by 15.96% month-on-month, while domestic passenger turnover (revenue passenger kilometers) fell by 17.52% month-on-month, and the domestic load factor decreased by 1.67% [1] - International passenger capacity (available seat kilometers) increased by 0.68% month-on-month, but international passenger turnover (revenue passenger kilometers) declined by 5.05% month-on-month, with the international load factor decreasing by 4.80% [1] Group 3: Fleet Information - As of September 30, 2025, the company operated 93 A320 series aircraft (including 27 A321, 22 A320neo, and 14 A321neo) and 10 Boeing 787 series aircraft [2] - The subsidiary, Jiuyuan Airlines, operated 27 Boeing 737 series aircraft [2]

Core Insights - The airline industry is experiencing high passenger load factors and a slowdown in capacity growth, with a focus on increasing international routes [1][4] - Domestic flight turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to pre-pandemic levels [1][4] - Average ticket prices have seen a narrowing decline, indicating potential improvements in revenue per seat for airlines [2][5] Supply and Demand - The industry passenger load factor remains high, with a year-on-year capacity growth slowdown. As of July 2025, the industry’s ASK and RPK increased by 5.5% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 84.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic flight turnover increased by 3.9% year-on-year, while international and regional flights have returned to 100.3% of 2019 levels [1] Ticket Pricing - Average ticket prices for the year-to-date (as of September 15, 2025) are 864 RMB, down 8.8% year-on-year. The average ticket price during the summer travel period in July and August fell by 8.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a narrowing decline in August [2] Fuel and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel in Q3 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with the domestic aviation fuel price dropping to 5545 RMB per ton in September, down 7.6% year-on-year [3] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the exchange rate moving from 7.1884 RMB at the end of 2024 to 7.1027 RMB by September 16, 2025 [3] Operational Performance - From January to August 2025, most airlines saw slight increases in domestic capacity, with Spring Airlines showing a growth rate of 4.7%. The passenger load factor for major airlines has shown significant year-on-year increases, with Eastern Airlines up by 3.5 percentage points [4] - In August, Air China had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding six planes, while other airlines also reported net increases [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to see improvements in unit revenue due to high passenger load factors and narrowing ticket price declines. The implementation of measures to reduce price competition may further support ticket price recovery [5] - Airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines are recommended for investment focus [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with a low growth rate in domestic capacity and a focus on increasing international routes. The net growth rate of airline fleets is below 3%, indicating a tight supply situation. The passenger load factor has improved compared to the same period last year and 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to levels close to 2019 [13][14] - During the summer travel season, the industry experienced a high passenger load factor, and the decline in ticket prices has narrowed. This is expected to lead to a significant improvement in airlines' unit revenue. Additionally, the implementation of measures to curb "involution" and the "Self-Regulation Convention" by the China Air Transport Association is anticipated to reduce malicious price competition, potentially leading to a recovery in ticket prices and further boosting airlines' unit revenue [3][14] - The average ticket price in China for 2025 has been 864 yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year. The average ticket prices during the summer travel season in July and August were down 8.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a narrowing decline in August compared to the previous month [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for airlines, particularly focusing on Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3][14] 2. Capacity Growth and Passenger Load Factor - The industry has seen a high passenger load factor with a slowdown in capacity growth. In July 2025, the industry’s ASK and RPK increased by 5.5% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [18][22] 3. Ticket Prices - The decline in ticket prices has narrowed, with the average ticket price in September showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. The average ticket price for the first half of September was down 3.8% year-on-year [4][30] 4. Fuel Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel in Q3 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with the domestic aviation fuel price in September dropping to 5545 yuan per ton, down 7.6% year-on-year. The exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated since the beginning of 2025 [5][42]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 2.66% year-on-year decrease in passenger capacity input for August 2025, with domestic capacity down by 6.77% and international capacity up by 13% [1] Group 1: Capacity and Performance - The domestic passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) increased by 0.98% month-on-month [1] - Domestic passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) rose by 5.67% month-on-month [1] - The domestic route passenger load factor increased by 4.02% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Fleet Information - The company and its subsidiary, Jiuyuan Airlines, did not introduce or retire any aircraft in the current month [1] - As of August 31, 2025, the company operates a total of 93 A320 series aircraft, including 27 A321 models, 22 A320neo models, 14 A321neo models, and 10 Boeing 787 aircraft [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Juneyao Airlines, reported a decline in passenger capacity and turnover for August 2025, with mixed performance across domestic and international routes [1] Group 1: Capacity and Turnover - The company's passenger capacity (measured in available seat kilometers) decreased by 2.66% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes showing changes of -6.77%, 13.68%, and -54.18% respectively [1] - The passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) fell by 1.91% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes experiencing changes of -7.06%, 20.44%, and -52.31% respectively [1] Group 2: Load Factor - The load factor for the company was 88.96%, an increase of 0.69% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes showing changes of -0.28%, 4.73%, and 3.55% respectively [1] Group 3: Month-on-Month Performance - In August 2025, the company's domestic passenger capacity increased by 0.98% month-on-month, while domestic passenger turnover rose by 5.67%, and the domestic load factor improved by 4.02% [1] - The international passenger capacity increased by 0.35% month-on-month, with international passenger turnover rising by 6.07%, and the international load factor improving by 4.54% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The overall passenger load factor remains high, indicating a recovery in demand compared to the previous year [1][9] - Domestic airlines have increased capacity by 2.8% year-on-year and 4.8% month-on-month in May, driven by seasonal demand from the May Day holiday [2][13] - The passenger load factor for domestic routes improved by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month and approximately 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [29][37] - International routes saw a 20.3% year-on-year increase in capacity, although the growth rate has slowed due to a higher base from the previous year [4][48] - The overall load factor for international routes increased by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, despite a 1.1 percentage point decrease month-on-month [4][48] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - Capacity for domestic routes increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 4.8% month-on-month in May, with major airlines showing over 5% growth in capacity due to seasonal factors [2][14] - The overall passenger load factor for domestic airlines rose to 92% in May, recovering from a dip below 90% in April [36][43] - Major airlines have stabilized their ticket sales strategies, contributing to a more predictable pricing environment [3][10] International Routes - International capacity increased by approximately 20.3% year-on-year, with a 1.0% increase month-on-month, indicating a gradual recovery [4][48] - The load factor for international routes improved significantly year-on-year, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [4][48] - The industry anticipates continued pressure on international routes due to capacity management in domestic routes, which may lead to an oversupply situation [50] Airport Throughput - Major airports such as Shanghai and Shenzhen reported significant year-on-year increases in international passenger throughput, with growth rates of 25% and 31% respectively [55][63] - Compared to 2019, international throughput at these airports has also shown strong recovery, indicating a robust rebound in international travel [55][63]

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines (601111) reported an increase in passenger turnover and capacity for May 2025, indicating a positive trend in the airline's operational performance [1] Group 1: Passenger Metrics - The consolidated passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) increased year-on-year [1] - Passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) rose by 4.5% year-on-year [1] - Passenger turnover increased by 8.4% year-on-year [1] - The average passenger load factor was 81.3%, up by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cargo Metrics - Cargo capacity input (measured in available cargo ton kilometers) increased by 2.2% year-on-year [1] - Cargo and mail turnover (measured in revenue cargo ton kilometers) rose by 6.2% year-on-year [1] - The cargo load factor was 41.5%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a notable improvement in passenger load factors, with April's load factor increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 84.3% year-on-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in capacity [1][2]. - Revenue management strategies are beginning to show positive results, with domestic ticket prices increasing by 11.5% during the week of May 5-11 [1][4]. - The supply growth in the aviation sector is expected to remain low, which, combined with effective revenue management, suggests a potential for improved profitability for airlines throughout the year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - The three major airlines reported a load factor increase of 3.1 percentage points to 84.0% in April, with domestic routes showing a 3.9 percentage point increase to 85.3% [2][10]. - Spring Airlines experienced a decline in load factor by 2.5 percentage points to 88.2%, while Juneyao Airlines showed a strong performance with a load factor increase of 2.9 percentage points to 86.2% [3][10]. Capacity and Revenue - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for the three major airlines and Spring Airlines increased by 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in capacity [10]. - Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) also rose by 11.5%, reflecting a strong demand recovery [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure will continue to improve, leading to a favorable environment for revenue management and profitability enhancement during the peak summer travel season [4][21]. - The expected low supply growth, coupled with rising ticket prices, is likely to support airlines' earnings recovery [1][4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several airlines, including China National Aviation (601111 CH), China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), with target prices set at 10.20, 5.15, and 69.10 respectively [20][21].