Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Market Weekly Report - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting No. Z0021558 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market showed a strong fluctuation. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,670 - 1,740 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton week-on-week. Although the actual export volume has not shown obvious abnormalities recently, market sentiment has been repeatedly affected by export expectations, which has stimulated downstream purchasing to some extent [6]. - Recently, some new device overhauls have led to a continued decline in domestic urea production. Next week, no enterprise devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped devices may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of an increase in production is relatively high [6]. - Although agriculture is in the off - season for rigid demand, local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui may increase slightly, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants decreased slightly this week due to local environmental protection warnings, and it may fluctuate slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [6]. - Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factories have continuously advanced orders and improved shipments. At the same time, affected by local environmental protection warnings, some urea devices have reduced production, leading to a continued decline in domestic urea enterprise inventories. In the short term, as environmental protection warnings end and urea production rebounds, inventories are expected to rise [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,710 - 1,760 yuan in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market was strong this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,670 - 1,740 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Market sentiment was affected by export expectations, which stimulated downstream purchasing [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production may increase next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, with local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui possibly increasing slightly and commercial reserve demand slowing down. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants may fluctuate slightly. Urea enterprise inventories may rise as production rebounds after environmental protection warnings end [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,760 yuan in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of December 26, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 34 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 26, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, a decrease of 226 compared to last week [19]. Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of December 25, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [25]. - **External Price**: As of December 25, the FOB price of urea in China was 390 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the urea basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to last week [33]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of December 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [36]. Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: As of December 25, China's urea production was 1.3334 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous period, showing a slight downward trend [39]. - **Inventory**: As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.26%; as of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 9.39% [40]. - **Export**: According to customs statistics, in November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [45]. Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Start - up Rates**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from last week [48].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report states that the short - term domestic demand for urea is weak. Although exports are progressing, the domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to decline in the near term. It suggests a neutral view of the market with both macro and cost factors being positive, while domestic demand being negative [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Cost - Coking coal price on 2025/12/24 was 490.00, up 5.00 from the previous day;无烟小块 remained at 940.00; natural gas remained at 3560.00 [1] Price - Domestic prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, prices in Henan, Anhui, Shandong, and Shanxi increased, while that in Hebei decreased. International prices such as China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR remained unchanged [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged on 2025/12/24 compared to the previous day [1] Supply - Daily production, overall开工率, coal - based开工率, and gas - based开工率 all remained unchanged. The number of pending orders and复合肥开工 also remained stable [1] Demand -开工率 of melamine, formaldehyde, and other downstream products remained unchanged [1] Profit - Profits from fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged, while the price of liquid ammonia decreased by 10.00 [1] Related Products - Prices of related products such as compound fertilizer remained unchanged, while prices of melamine, methanol, etc. decreased [1] Futures - The settlement price increased by 19.00, the basis increased by 16.00, the trading volume decreased by 11422.00, the open interest increased by 8319.00, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 100.00 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly this week. After India's new urea tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market sentiment was boosted [8]. - New device overhauls led to a slight decrease in domestic urea production this week. Production is expected to increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily [8]. - Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, and there is a possibility of further destocking in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly. The average price in Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After India's tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market improved [8]. - Market outlook: Production may increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline. Enterprise inventories may continue to decline [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 0.83% this week [11]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 19, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 19 [14]. - Open interest analysis: There is no specific analysis content in the provided text. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 19, there were 10976 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 320 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of December 18, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1700 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [28]. - Overseas price: As of December 18, the FOB price of urea in China was 387.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [32]. - Basis: As of December 18, the urea basis was 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal price: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - Natural gas price: As of December 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of December 18, China's urea production was 136.59 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from the previous period, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 80.69%, a 1.16% decrease from the previous period [42]. - Inventory: As of December 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a 12.20% increase from the previous period. As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a 4.42% decrease from last week [45]. - Export: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a 12.30% decrease from the previous month, and the average export price was 432.05 dollars/ton, a 10.83% decrease from the previous month [48]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [51]. - Melamine: As of December 18, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week [51].

Group 1 - The main urea futures contract slightly decreased by 1.22%, closing at 1625.00 CNY/ton on November 12 [1] - As of December 11, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts recorded was 11,652, an increase of 424 from the previous trading day; over the past week, the total increase was 2,299 receipts, representing a growth of 24.58%; in the last month, the total increase was 4,840 receipts, with a growth rate of 71.05% [2] - The production capacity utilization rates for urea in China as of the 49th week of 2025 were 89.61% for coal-based urea (up 2.91% month-on-month) and 55.23% for gas-based urea (down 9.89% month-on-month) [2] Group 2 - According to Galaxy Futures, domestic demand remains stable with rigid agricultural needs; the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, but high prices are being resisted by downstream buyers, leading to a weak market outlook for urea in the short term [4] - Everbright Futures noted that the current urea market lacks driving forces, with short-term sentiment relatively weak; attention should be paid to daily production changes, spot transaction rhythms, and export policy dynamics [4] - The main delivery area prices for urea are around 1650-1680 CNY/ton, with some manufacturers significantly reducing prices to 1620 CNY/ton due to weak demand in high-price regions [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic urea production decreased, the agricultural season is off - peak, and industrial demand is gradually increasing. The latest Indian tender price meets market expectations, so the short - term urea price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 1630 - 1730 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to focus on going long on far - month contracts [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 dropped 3 yuan to 1675 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area rose to 1680 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 5655 lots to 212,900 lots, and short positions increased by 541 lots to 233,800 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The daily urea production in the industry is 199,000 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons compared to the previous working day and an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate is 82.28%, a 0.67% increase compared to 81.6% in the same period last year [1] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1363,900 tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons and a 5.10% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of the urea port samples is 100,000 tons, remaining the same month - on - month [1] 3.2.3 Demand - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37.1%, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 57.4%, a 4.2% month - on - month increase [1] 3.2.4 Tender - On November 20th, the lowest CFR prices of the Indian IPL urea import tender were 418.40 dollars/ton on the east coast and 419.50 dollars/ton on the west coast, both from AGRIFIELD, with 24 suppliers' offers received [1] 3.2.5 Economic Data - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 49.7%. The overall economic outlook is stable [1] 3.3 Market Logic - With domestic urea production decline, off - peak agricultural season, increasing industrial demand, and the latest Indian tender price in line with market expectations, the short - term urea price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 1630 - 1730 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to focus on going long on far - month contracts [1]

南华期货尿素产业周报 在政策保供与生产利润修复的支撑下，尿素日产预计将维持高位，高供应对价格构成显著压力。然而出口 政策的适时、连续调节，持续为基本面泄压，从而削弱了价格的下行驱动强度。在出口政策调控背景下，短 期现货价格受到明显支撑，业内情绪有提升，短线国内尿素行情稳中偏强。由于目前东北地区已经连续补库 两周，复合肥工厂及贸易商追高意愿逐步减弱，但尿素显性库存连续去库，基本面对价格形成支撑。总体而 言，尿素市场处于基本面与政策的区间内。短期其下行空间受到有力支撑，但上方同样承压，预计将延续震 荡走势。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2 4 6 | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 23/12 | 24/04 | 24/08 | 24/12 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 28 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2601 价格上涨 19 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market has shown a trend of initial decline followed by a rise in November, contrasting with the futures price which has experienced a rise followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of November 11, the average price of urea in the domestic market was 1644.45 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.11% from the previous working day [1] - The urea futures market has seen the main contract price decline for three consecutive trading days, although it still maintains an increase of over 1% for the month [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - The average daily production of urea in China has reached approximately 200,000 tons in November, marking an increase of 11.1% compared to the same period last year [2] - As of November 6, the inventory of urea production enterprises in China was 1.342 million tons, which is a decrease of about 3.9% compared to the previous month but an increase of approximately 9.9% year-on-year [1][2] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Currently, the demand is primarily driven by agricultural reserve fertilizer procurement, with industrial demand supported by higher operational rates of compound fertilizer enterprises, which have reached nearly 40% [2] - Despite being in the agricultural off-season, there is still support for future demand due to reserve needs, leading to a competitive supply-demand dynamic [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic demand for urea is weak, and the supply remains high with few maintenance enterprises and less urea flow, leading to an increase in enterprise inventory. Although urea exports are advancing, the domestic supply - demand situation has not reversed, and the market still has a downward trend. The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, compared to the previous day, at 465.00, 920.00, and 4130.00 respectively [1]. Price - On November 6, 2025, the prices in regions such as Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while Shandong increased by 10.00 to 1570.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR also remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, at 155.43, 11.00, and 14500.00 respectively [1]. Supply - On November 6, 2025, the daily output was 196,680.00, an increase of 7,920.00 from the previous day, and the overall start - up rate was 84.07%, an increase of 3.39 percentage points [1]. Demand - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer, melamine, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged on November 6, 2025 [1]. Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, coal - water slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, at - 317.00, 104.00, and - 292.00 respectively [1]. Related Products - The price of liquid ammonia increased by 20.00 to 2050.00 on November 6, 2025, while the prices of compound fertilizer, melamine, and methanol were 2450.00, 5020.00, and 2015.00 respectively, with compound fertilizer remaining unchanged, and melamine remaining unchanged, and methanol increasing by 5.00 [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the settlement price was 1640.00, a decrease of 8.00 from the previous day; the basis was - 74.00, a decrease of 11.00; the trading volume decreased by 6582.00 to 148,885.00, and the open interest increased by 2887.00 to 275,142.00 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Report's Core View - The report indicates that although urea exports are progressing, the domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend in the near term. It also suggests a neutral view on the overall market, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces remained unchanged at 465.00 and 920.00 respectively, while the price of natural gas decreased by 100.00 to 4200.00 [1]. Price - The prices in most regions, such as Henan, Hebei, and Anhui, remained stable. Shandong's price increased by 10.00 to 1560.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, etc., also remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 155.43, 11.00, and 14500.00 respectively [1]. Supply - Daily production, overall开工率, coal - based and gas - based开工率, and待发订单 all remained unchanged, with开工率 at 80.69, coal - based at 82.61, and gas - based at 72.79 [1]. Demand - The开工率 of compound fertilizers, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 31.04, 49.98, and 40.74 respectively [1]. Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged at - 317.00, 104.00, and - 292.00 respectively [1]. Related Products - The prices of liquid ammonia and compound fertilizers remained unchanged at 2000.00 and 2450.00 respectively. The prices of melamine and methanol decreased by 30.00 and 20.00 to 5020.00 and 2030.00 respectively [1]. Futures - The结算价 increased by 8.00 to 1625.00, the基差 increased by 3.00 to - 60.00, the涨跌幅 was 0.49, the成交量 decreased by 19168.00 to 140396.00, the持仓量 increased by 2518.00 to 272271.00, and the仓車量 increased by 2445.00 to 3900.00 [1].