Industry Overview - The average daily production of urea in the past week was 192,700 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [1] - As of September 4, urea prices were reported at 1,650 CNY/ton in Gansu and 1,670 CNY/ton for medium-sized granules in Shandong [1] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises reached 1,085,800 tons, exceeding last week's expectations, with port sample inventory at 600,000 tons, also above previous expectations [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, there has been a relaxation in port inspections, leading to an increase in export volumes. However, domestic urea production facilities are undergoing significant maintenance, resulting in a noticeable decline in operating rates [2] - The agricultural sector remains in the off-season, and industrial demand is increasing slowly. The market is experiencing negative feedback due to unmet expectations from recent bidding announcements, leading to a short-term bearish outlook for urea prices, with a reference range of 1,680-1,780 CNY/ton [2] Production and Demand Dynamics - Recent maintenance of some new production facilities has led to a slight decrease in domestic urea production. This week, two companies plan to halt production while three others are resuming operations [3] - Agricultural demand is in a seasonal lull, although there is a slight increase in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. Industrial compound fertilizer purchases are primarily for stock replenishment, and the overall operating rate of enterprises has decreased [3] - Despite limited adjustments in operating rates due to policy impacts, there is an expectation of improvement starting from the 4th of the month. Domestic demand is progressing slowly, with some companies experiencing lower-than-expected shipments [3] - Overall, the inventory levels of domestic urea enterprises have shown mixed trends, with a slight overall increase. Following major events, there is an anticipated rise in downstream industrial operations, coupled with a phase of urea exports, suggesting a potential decrease in urea enterprise inventories [3] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,700-1,760 CNY/ton in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with both spot and futures prices showing weakness due to low demand and lack of supportive factors in the market [4][5]. Group 1: Urea Price Index and Market Trends - As of August 26, the urea small particle price index is 1768.18, down 7.27 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.41% decrease month-on-month and a 16.11% decrease year-on-year [1]. - The urea futures market shows a slight decline, with the UR2601 contract closing at 1737, down 9 from the previous trading day's settlement price, indicating a 0.52% decrease [4]. Group 2: Spot Market Analysis - The domestic urea market is operating weakly, with some regions experiencing slight price reductions. The overall sentiment remains cautious, and prices are likely to continue to decline [5]. - Specific regional prices as of August 26 include: Northeast at 1720-1750 CNY/ton, East China at 1690-1720 CNY/ton, and North China at 1610-1760 CNY/ton [6][7]. Group 3: Regional Price Movements - In the Northeast, prices fell to 1730 CNY/ton in Jilin and 1740 CNY/ton in Liaoning, while in North China, prices remained stable at 1610 CNY/ton in Shanxi [6]. - In South China, the price in Guangdong is around 1860-1880 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease from the previous working day [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. Industrial demand, mainly for compound fertilizer, is in a phase of supplementary stocking. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly, reducing the rigid demand for urea. Although some urea enterprises have reduced inventory due to export orders and malfunctions, the overall enterprise inventory is still on an upward trend. The decline in urea enterprise inventory may be limited due to enterprise purchase restrictions and slow domestic demand growth. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1720 - 1770 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1745 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 44 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 222,940 lots, an increase of 13,639 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 37,480, a decrease of 2,983. The exchange warehouse receipts are 5,123, an increase of 1,050 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1770 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1750 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1740 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), 1700 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and 1760 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively. The main contract basis is 1 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are both 450 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 50.1 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons; enterprise inventory is 102.39 tons, an increase of 6.65 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.99%, an increase of 0.77%. The daily urea output is 194,400 tons, an increase of 1700 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, an increase of 20,740 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.84%, a decrease of 2.64%. The melamine operating rate is 46.6%, a decrease of 3.22%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 131 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.2212 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 23,200 tons, a decrease of 1600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 20, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 102.39 tons, an increase of 6.65 tons or 6.95% week - on - week. As of August 21, the port sample inventory was 50.1 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons or 7.97% week - on - week. As of August 21, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3611 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons or 0.93% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.99%, an increase of 0.77% from the previous period [2] 3.6 Suggestion - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly market report on the urea market, released by Ruida Futures Research Institute on August 15, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea market showed a weak downward trend this week. With some plant restarts, the daily output of urea increased slightly. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and industrial demand is tepid. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to rise, and it is expected to keep increasing in the short term. The report suggests trading the UR2601 contract in the range of 1700 - 1770 yuan [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the UR2601 contract in the 1700 - 1770 yuan range [6] - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market declined weakly this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the average price down 55 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - **Market Outlook**: Some plants restarted, increasing the daily output of urea. Next week, 1 - 2 enterprises are planned to stop production while 3 - 5 are expected to resume. Considering potential short - term breakdowns, output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is limited. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to rise and is expected to keep rising in the short term [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.8% [11] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 15, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 16 [15] - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the summary part - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, there were 3573 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 200 from last week [23] Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of August 14, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and in Jiangsu was 1730 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan) [28] - **Foreign Price**: As of August 14, the FOB price of urea in China was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton from last week [32] - **Basis**: As of August 14, the urea basis was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - **Coal and Gas Prices**: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of August 14, the output of Chinese urea producers was 134.86 million tons, an increase of 2.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, an increase of 1.24% from the previous period [42] - **Inventory**: As of August 14, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 46.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.9 million tons week - on - week, a decline of 3.93%. As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.74 million tons, an increase of 6.98 million tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86% [45] - **Export**: In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2618.13%. The average export price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4662.05% [48] Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from last week [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea market maintains a stable and slightly stronger trend, with enterprise quotes increasing slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Although the new order trading atmosphere has weakened and downstream procurement has become more cautious, most enterprises have controllable inventory pressure supported by pending orders, and short - term quotes remain firm. Market sentiment is significantly boosted by the macro - level, but the actual demand follow - up will be the key factor determining the sustainability of the market. Overall, the urea market is viewed as oscillating, with positives mainly from the macro and cost sides and negatives from weak domestic demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas remained unchanged at 470 yuan, 890 yuan, and 4050 yuan respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Price - Domestic urea prices in different regions showed mixed trends on August 13, 2025. Prices in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 1730 yuan, while prices in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan to 1620 yuan. International prices such as China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR remained unchanged [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 88.76, 48.30, and 1700 respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Supply - The 5 - day production, overall urea production start - up rate, coal - based start - up rate, and gas - based start - up rate remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The gas - based start - up rate decreased by 0.00 [1] Demand - Indicators such as pending orders, compound fertilizer start - up rate, melamine start - up rate, and formaldehyde start - up rate all remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Profit - Profits from fixed - bed, coal - water slurry, and some other production methods remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The profit from natural gas, liquid ammonia decreased by 60 yuan [1] Associated Products - The prices of compound fertilizer and melamine remained unchanged at 2500 yuan and 5180 yuan respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The price of methanol increased by 5 yuan to 2255 yuan [1] Futures - The settlement price of urea futures increased by 2 yuan to 1728 yuan on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The basis increased by 11 yuan to 14 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 9600 to 81594, and the open interest decreased by 16902 to 74908. The warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market in China experienced a trend of rising and then falling prices in August, influenced by various news factors, with a return to rational market transactions following export news [1] Market Analysis - As of August 11, the average price of urea in China was 1773.4 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.69% compared to August 1 and an 18.24% year-on-year decline [1] - The expectation of a relaxed supply in the market continues, while demand lacks significant support, indicating that the market is likely to remain under pressure in the short term without any substantial positive news [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea market is considered to be in an overall oscillating state, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The price of coking coal on August 12, 2025, was 470.00, unchanged from the previous day; the price of anthracite small pieces was 890.00, also unchanged; the price of natural gas decreased by 50.00 to 4050.00 [1] Price - Mainstream urea enterprise prices in key regions continued to decline, with low - end factory prices of 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton seeing increased transactions. The short - term market is expected to stabilize and the low - end prices may rise slightly. The market needs more positive factors such as export news or macro - sentiment boost [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 88.76, 48.30, and 1700.00 respectively on August 12, 2025 [1] Supply - Urea daily production was 192,100.00, and the overall start - up rate was 82.98%, with coal - based at 83.66% and gas - based at 76.52%, all remaining unchanged [1] Demand - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 41.50, 61.10, and 41.53 respectively [1] Profit - The profit of fixed - bed was - 167.00, water - coal slurry was 282.00, and natural gas was - 185.00, all unchanged. The price of liquid ammonia decreased by 20.00 to 2180.00 [1] Associated Products - The price of compound fertilizer was 2500.00, unchanged; melamine increased by 30.00 to 5180.00; and something (the text seems incomplete here) increased by 20.00 to 2250.00 [1] Futures - The settlement price increased by 8.00 to 1726.00, the basis decreased by 15.00 to 3.00, the increase rate was 1.67%. The trading volume decreased by 10,414.00 to 91,194.00, the open interest decreased by 17,264.00 to 91,810.00, and the warehouse receipt volume increased by 200.00 to 3823.00 [1]

「 2025.08.01」 尿素市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场弱势下行，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1720-1810元/ 吨，均价环比下跌60元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分装置检修结束，国内尿素日产量小幅增加，下周可能3家企业装置计划停车， 2-3家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量减少的概率较大。国内农业需求处于 季节性淡季，需求继续走弱。当前逐步进入秋季肥生产阶段，复合肥工业需求逢低适当采购，复 合肥企业开工率稳中有升但开工提升缓慢，对尿素刚需偏少，下游工厂多逢低少量采购为主。国 内尿素需求走弱，出口对接不及预期，工厂新单成交放缓，出货流向同步减少，本周国内尿素企 业库存增加，虽然复合肥适当补仓但支撑有限，短期尿素企业库存仍有累库趋势。 策略建议： UR2509合约短线建议在1690-1770区间交易。 「 期货市场情况」 尿素期货价格走势 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term urea market is supported by domestic trade rigid demand procurement and export pick - up, with prices oscillating. The oscillating pattern is expected to continue this week [2]. - In the short term, urea shows a state of small - scale price increase dominated by speculation. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with supply - side maintenance leading to lower开工率 and daily output, and demand - side export pick - up preventing large - scale inventory accumulation. However, export information is uncertain, and domestic agricultural demand is ending, suppressing price increases [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (09 Contract)**: The closing price was 1,763 yuan/ton (up 15 from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,755 yuan/ton (up 9), the trading volume was 193,397 lots (up 52,033), the open interest was 214,386 lots (up 1,128), the number of warehouse receipts was 2,607 tons (up 1,330), and the turnover was 678.928 million yuan (up 185.318 million) [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The Shandong regional basis was 57 (down 15), the Fengxi - disk basis was - 83 (down 15), the Dongguang - disk basis was 17 (down 15), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was 40 (up 4) [2]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of some enterprises remained unchanged, while the trading price in the Shanxi region increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton. The supply - side开工率 was 84.99% (up 0.86%), and the daily output was 196,760 tons (up 2,000) [2]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory Situation**: On June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 109.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.01 million tons or 3.53%. The inventory of some enterprises increased, while that of others decreased. The overall inventory reduction was limited, and it is expected to enter an oscillating pattern [2]. - **Market Trend**: The short - term market is supported by domestic and export demand, with prices oscillating. In early July, fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, but export information is uncertain, and domestic agricultural demand is ending, suppressing price increases [2][4].

Price and Market Trends - Urea prices experienced fluctuations last week, with increased domestic maintenance leading to a slight decline in supply and a rise in downstream purchasing for topdressing, providing slight price support [1] - Internationally, urea prices surged due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and the impact of Indian tenders, causing domestic prices to rise slightly before retreating [1] - Current ex-factory prices are reported as follows: Shandong small and medium granules at 1750-1810 RMB/ton; Henan small granules at 1700-1800 RMB/ton; Hebei small granules at 1740-1780 RMB/ton [1] Production, Sales, and Inventory - This week's survey indicates that small granule urea production is at 1.015 million tons, a decrease of 0.32% week-on-week; large granule urea production is at 252,900 tons, down 5.30% [2] - Small granule urea sales reached 1.0854 million tons, an increase of 9.29%; large granule urea sales were 261,100 tons, up 1.02% [2] - The sales-to-production ratio for small granules is 106.93%, up 9.40 percentage points; for large granules, it is 103.25%, up 6.67 percentage points; total inventory stands at 999,800 tons, down 6.90% [2] Operating Rates - As of June 24, 2025, the national daily urea production is approximately 197,400 tons, with an operating rate of about 85.09% [3] - Coal-based urea enterprises have an operating rate of 84.22%, while those using natural gas and coke oven gas have an operating rate of 87.91% [3] - The overall operating rate for urea enterprises has decreased by 1.20 percentage points week-on-week but is up 6.60 percentage points year-on-year [3]