国内尿素价格指数： 据肥多多数据测算6月23日尿素小颗粒价格指数为1850.14，较上周五下跌23.18，环比下跌1.24%，同比下跌21.92%。 尿素期货市场： 综合来看，当前尿素市场需求面疲弱，跟进少量有限，市场交投平淡运行，价格上行受限，预计短时间内尿素市场延续弱势整理，价格持稳逐步下调，暂 时观望需求持续性及国际市场、出口行情变动情况。 | | | 尿素小颗粒市场报价一览表(元/吨) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 市场 | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/23 | 涨跌 | 收盘价基层 | | | 吉林 | 1900 | 1900 | 0 | 189 | | 东北地区 | 辽宁 | 1910 | 1910 | 0 | 199 | | | 黑龙江 | 1930 | 1930 | 0 | 219 | | | 内蒙通辽 | 1940 | 1940 | 0 | 229 | | 华北地区 | 山西地区 | 1730 | 1680 | -50 | -31 | | | 河北地区 | 1810 | 1800 | -10 | 89 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trading center of the domestic urea spot market moved up, boosting market sentiment and leading downstream to increase replenishment. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1830 - 1860 yuan/ton, with the average price up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - Recently, some domestic urea plants have shut down, reducing daily output. Next week, no plants are planned to shut down, and 3 shut - down plants will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of increased output is high. Agricultural demand is gradually rising, and port - collection demand will increase under the influence of export news. Industrial demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the summer fertilizer production in some areas will gradually end. It is expected that the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may decline slightly in the short term. This week, urea enterprise inventories decreased significantly. Affected by export news, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and some domestic industrial and agricultural downstream increased procurement, with some goods flowing to ports, helping factory inventories decline [7]. - For the UR2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1840 - 1940 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea spot market trading center moved up, and downstream replenishment increased. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1830 - 1860 yuan/ton, with the average price up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is rising, and port - collection demand will increase. Industrial demand is for rigid procurement, and the compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate may decline slightly. Enterprise inventories decreased significantly [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1940 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.85% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of May 16, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 89 [14]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 16, there were 7355 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 2385 from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of May 15, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [26]. - **Foreign Price**: As of May 15, the FOB China price of urea was 357.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of May 15, the urea basis was 58 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.4 Upstream - **Coal and Gas Prices**: As of May 14, the market price of Qinhuangdao 5500 - kcal thermal coal was 670 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of May 15, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.25 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. 3.5 Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of May 15, China's urea production was 139.47 tons, down 1.53 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decline of 1.09%. The weekly average daily output was 19.92 tons, down 0.22 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 86.40%, down 0.95% from the previous period [40]. - **Inventory**: As of May 15, the port sample inventory was 16.3 tons, up 3 tons week - on - week, a rise of 22.56%. As of May 14, the total enterprise inventory was 81.72 tons, down 24.84 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 23.31% [43]. - **Export**: In March 2025, urea exports were 0.23 tons, up 63.62% month - on - month; the export average price was 221.07 US dollars/ton, down 36.20% month - on - month [46]. 3.6 Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates**: As of May 15, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.26%, up 2.36 percentage points from last week. The Chinese melamine capacity utilization rate was 74.82% on average, down 0.42 percentage points from last week [49].

【冠通研究】 市场情绪转淡，盘面承压 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 14 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开低走日内偏弱运行。上游工厂多执行前期待发为主，新单成交 情况不如前期顺畅，情绪转淡下，市场偏谨慎。基本面情况相对稳定，供应端， 日产位于 20 万吨关口窄幅上下波动，本周华昌短停，联盟及刘化复产，关注新 增产能进度对供应的影响。需求端，情绪转弱后，农业备肥偏谨慎。复合肥工厂 方面，成本原料价格上涨背景下，工厂借势让利降库，利润遭挤压且夏季肥处于 扫尾阶段，开工率逐渐将下滑。东北地区本周尿素入库量环比增加，玉米水稻追 肥需求有提升，但预计持续时间不长。本周库存继续大幅去化，需求情况表现为 有所增加，价格上涨情况下，贸易商拿货加快去化水平，对盘面提供支撑力度。 整体来说，昨日市场传言后，市场情绪减弱，下游终端成交不温不火，尿素盘面 回吐小幅涨幅，但盘面走势依然强劲，目前处于夏季肥需求窗口，同时出口政策 等待明朗化，盘面依然维持震荡偏强趋势，谨慎市场操作风险。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1870 元/吨低开低走，日内收跌，最终收于 1886 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.89%，持仓 ...