Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, the national industrial producer price index showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6% for ex-factory prices and a 0.4% month-on-month decline, indicating a continued downward trend in industrial pricing pressures [1]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In June, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers saw a decline in production materials by 4.4%, contributing approximately 3.26 percentage points to the overall decrease in ex-factory prices. The mining industry experienced a significant drop of 13.2%, while raw materials and processing industries saw declines of 5.5% and 3.2%, respectively [3]. - Prices for living materials decreased by 1.4%, impacting the overall ex-factory price level by about 0.35 percentage points. Food prices fell by 2.0%, while clothing prices increased by 0.1%, and general daily goods prices rose by 0.8%. Durable consumer goods prices, however, decreased by 2.7% [3]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In June, the month-on-month ex-factory prices of industrial producers showed a 0.6% decline in production materials, affecting the overall price level by approximately 0.42 percentage points. The mining industry prices decreased by 1.2%, raw materials by 0.7%, and processing industry prices by 0.5% [7]. - Living materials prices saw a slight decline of 0.1%, contributing about 0.02 percentage points to the overall price level decrease. Food prices fell by 0.3%, while clothing prices remained stable, and general daily goods prices increased by 0.1% [7]. Group 3: Changes in Industrial Producer Purchase Prices - In June, the purchase prices for industrial producers showed a significant decline in fuel and power categories by 10.4%, black metal materials by 8.0%, and chemical raw materials by 6.2%. Agricultural products also saw a decrease of 4.2%, while construction materials and non-metallic categories dropped by 2.6% [6]. - The textile raw materials category experienced a decline of 2.4%, while prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.4% [6].

Economic Overview - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economic total has successively surpassed 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, with an expected reach of approximately 140 trillion yuan this year [1] - In June, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the producer price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year [2] Trade and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce has included eight entities from Taiwan, including Hanxiang Aerospace Industrial Co., Ltd., in the export control list [3] - According to reports, the U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that a U.S. delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues [4] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.8%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.74%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 1.14% [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that in June, the prices in the mining industry decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the overall decline in industrial producer prices [1] - The prices of production materials fell by 4.4%, which impacted the total level of industrial producer prices by approximately 3.26 percentage points [1] - The prices of raw materials decreased by 5.5%, while processing industry prices saw a decline of 3.2% [1] Group 2 - The prices of living materials decreased by 1.4%, affecting the total level of industrial producer prices by about 0.35 percentage points [1] - Food prices dropped by 2.0%, while clothing prices increased by 0.1% and general daily necessities rose by 0.8% [1] - Durable consumer goods prices fell by 2.7% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that in June, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, suggesting a slight deflationary trend in consumer prices [1] - The national industrial producer price index (PPI) also saw a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, reflecting potential challenges in the manufacturing sector [1]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a year-on-year increase of 0.1% in consumer prices for June 2025, indicating a slight inflationary trend in the consumer market [1] - In contrast, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in June, reflecting deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [1] Consumer Prices - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June 2025, suggesting stable consumer demand and mild inflationary conditions [1] Producer Prices - The industrial producer prices experienced a significant decrease of 3.6% year-on-year in June 2025, indicating potential challenges for manufacturers and the overall industrial sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 2.5% year-on-year, reaching 17.94 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 3.8% [7][9]. Group 1: Trade Performance - Total goods trade value in May 2025 was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year, with exports at 2.28 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) and imports at 1.53 trillion yuan (down 2.1%) [8]. - General trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports totaling 11.51 trillion yuan (up 0.8%), accounting for 64.2% of total foreign trade [10]. - Processing trade reached 3.21 trillion yuan (up 6.2%), representing 17.9% of total trade [10]. Group 2: Trade Partners - ASEAN became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 3.02 trillion yuan (up 9.1%), accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [11]. - Trade with the EU reached 2.3 trillion yuan (up 2.9%), while trade with the US decreased by 8.1% to 1.72 trillion yuan [11]. Group 3: Enterprise Types - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 10.25 trillion yuan (up 7%) [13]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 5.21 trillion yuan (up 2.3%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 12.7% to 2.44 trillion yuan [13]. Group 4: Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of total exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits (up 18.9%) and automobiles (up 6.6%) [14]. - Labor-intensive products saw a decline in exports, while agricultural product exports increased by 4.7% [14]. Group 5: Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports down 5.2% and crude oil imports up slightly by 0.3% [15]. - The import value of mechanical and electrical products grew by 6% [15].

Core Viewpoint - In May 2025, the national industrial producer price index showed a year-on-year decline of 3.3% for factory prices and 3.6% for purchase prices, indicating a continued downward trend in industrial pricing [1][3]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In May, the prices of production materials decreased by 4.0%, contributing approximately 2.98 percentage points to the overall decline in factory prices. The mining industry saw a significant drop of 11.9%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 5.4% and 2.8%, respectively [3]. - Prices of living materials fell by 1.4%, impacting the overall factory price level by about 0.36 percentage points. Food prices decreased by 1.4%, while clothing prices remained stable, and general daily goods prices increased by 0.6%. Durable goods prices dropped by 3.3% [3]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In May, the factory prices of production materials decreased by 0.6%, affecting the overall factory price level by approximately 0.44 percentage points. The mining industry prices fell by 2.5%, raw materials by 0.9%, and processing industry prices by 0.3% [7]. - Prices of living materials remained stable, with food prices decreasing by 0.1%, clothing prices increasing by 0.2%, and both general daily goods and durable goods prices rising by 0.1% [7]. Group 3: Changes in Industrial Producer Purchase Prices - In May, the purchase prices of fuel and power decreased by 9.8%, black metal materials by 7.3%, and chemical raw materials by 5.4%. Agricultural products saw a decline of 2.6%, while textile raw materials dropped by 2.5%. Building materials and non-metallic materials decreased by 1.1%, while prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 4.6% [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that in May 2025, the national industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month [1] - The industrial producer's purchase prices also saw a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% in May 2025 [1] - For the period from January to May, the average industrial producer's ex-factory prices and purchase prices both fell by 2.6% compared to the same period last year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Markit data shows that the May Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, indicating weak manufacturing demand, while the PMI rose slightly to 51.1, with new orders increasing and the employment index reaching a six - month high, but corporate profits are still affected by cost pressures [78]. - On the supply side, blast furnace hot metal production declined, and the weakening demand impacted steel mill profits. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the weekly output of rebar decreased by 70,000 tons [78]. - In terms of demand, the weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 3.5% week - on - week, with building materials consumption down 5.9% and plate consumption down 2.0%. The inventory depletion speed has slowed down, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future [78]. - Due to market information disturbances in the raw material market and the profit - taking of short - position funds, the coal - coke futures prices rebounded significantly, driving up the center of gravity of finished product prices. Short - term operations are recommended [78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and related indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also declined. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased, and the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 4.1% year - on - year [7]. - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and from January to April, it increased by 4.7%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% [7]. - In April 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the producer price index decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [7]. - The China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks reached a substantial agreement, with both sides reducing tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend The SHIBOR rate decreased from 1.7450 on April 29, 2025, to 1.6200 on June 5, 2025, with a bullish outlook [20]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, and Basis 3.2.1 Macro - Money Quantity The SHIBOR rate decreased month - on - month, indicating a bullish trend [20]. 3.2.2 Macro - Money Price No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign No specific content provided. 3.2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao were 3,120 yuan/ton, 3,210 yuan/ton, 734 yuan/ton, 1,340 yuan/ton, and 1,270 yuan/ton respectively. Their one - week, one - month, and one - year price changes varied [28]. 3.2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on June 5, 2025, was 131 yuan/ton, showing certain fluctuations in the recent period [31]. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (for Various Steel Products) No specific content provided. 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Futures - Spot) No specific content provided. 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.56% on June 6, 2025, slightly lower than 83.87% on May 30, 2025 [43]. 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Profits No specific content provided. 3.3.6 Electric Furnace Operation No specific content provided. 3.3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output No specific content provided. 3.3.8 Weekly Steel Output The total output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) on June 6, 2025, was 7.9162 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.024485822 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.001551365 [53]. 3.3.9 Weekly Rebar Output The weekly output of rebar on June 6, 2025, was 218,460 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons [78]. 3.3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory The steel mill steel inventory on June 6, 2025, was 5.1777 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.10339752 and a week - on - week increase of 0.009376949 [60]. 3.3.11 Steel Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.13 Rebar Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.14 Building Materials Transactions No specific content provided. 3.3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price No specific content provided. 3.3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area No specific content provided. 3.3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions No specific content provided. 3.4 Part 4: Future Outlook - The manufacturing demand is weak, and the supply of steel products has decreased slightly. The demand for steel products has declined, and the inventory depletion speed has slowed down. - Due to the rebound of coal - coke futures prices, the center of gravity of finished product prices has moved up. Short - term operations are recommended.

Core Viewpoint - In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [6][8]. Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in April 2025 reached 3.84 trillion yuan, marking a 5.6% increase. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, while imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8% [7]. - In the first four months, general trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports totaling 9.05 trillion yuan, a 0.6% increase, and processing trade totaling 2.54 trillion yuan, a 6.6% increase [8]. Trade Partners - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.38 trillion yuan, up 9.2%. The EU followed as the second-largest partner with 1.78 trillion yuan, a 1.1% increase, while trade with the US decreased by 2.1% to 1.44 trillion yuan [9][10]. Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly to trade, with a total of 8.05 trillion yuan, a 6.8% increase, accounting for 56.9% of total trade. Foreign-invested enterprises contributed 4.1 trillion yuan, a 1.9% increase, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 11.3% to 1.96 trillion yuan [11]. Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 60% of exports, totaling 5.04 trillion yuan, a 9.5% increase. Key growth areas included integrated circuits and automobiles [12]. Import Trends - Major commodity import prices fell, with iron ore down 17.8% and crude oil down 8%. However, imports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.7% to 2.23 trillion yuan [13]. Price Trends - In April 2025, the industrial producer price index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with production material prices down 3.1%. The consumer price index saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices down 0.2% [16][20].