Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7830.0 yuan, with a current price of 7690.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.26% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Haizheng Futures indicates that the industrial silicon market is showing signs of stabilization, although the fundamental factors do not support a price reversal due to increased production from Xinjiang and the southwest regions, leading to a rise in output [1] - Newhu Futures expects the industrial silicon main contract to maintain a bottom oscillation pattern, as the current demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the operating rate of organic silicon is recovering, which has led to a decrease in high inventory levels, primarily through warehouse receipts [1] - Despite the ongoing consumption of warehouse receipts, the overall inventory remains high, and supply is expected to continue increasing, while demand growth is limited, making sustained inventory reduction unlikely [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The industrial silicon market is characterized by high inventory levels and an oversupply expectation, with the current market conditions leading to a weak maintenance of spot prices [1] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards bearishness, with cost support remaining at lower levels, suggesting that the main contract will likely oscillate at the bottom, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices remained stable over the past week, with minor fluctuations observed in the market, indicating a cautious but improving market sentiment [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Industrial silicon manufacturers are producing according to plan, with slight production increases from the Southwest region due to some resumption of operations and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand side: There is an expected increase in operating rates for organic silicon monomer plants in northern regions, which will boost demand for industrial silicon. Additionally, there is a slight increase in operating rates for polysilicon plants, maintaining demand for industrial silicon. Aluminum alloy plants are operating normally, keeping demand stable [1]. Price Dynamics - The overall market for industrial silicon remains under pressure, with prices expected to continue fluctuating within a lower range due to increased supply and limited demand growth. Organic silicon monomer plants are facing inventory pressure, leading to competitive pricing and price declines. The drop in silicon wafer prices has also contributed to a negative sentiment in polysilicon procurement, further impacting prices [1].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot price remains stable, with a recent increase in the main contract price by 5.96% from 7135 CNY/ton to 7560 CNY/ton, indicating a slight market recovery despite cautious downstream purchasing behavior [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply has increased due to the onset of the flood season, with some silicon factories in the south resuming production alongside new capacity coming online and previously halted production restarting [1] - Demand from downstream sectors shows a slight increase, with organic silicon monomer plants operating at high levels, maintaining stable demand for industrial silicon; polysilicon plants have stable operations, and aluminum alloy plants are purchasing based on demand [1] - Overall demand from the three major downstream sectors for industrial silicon has increased [1] Price Dynamics - The market for organic silicon monomer plants is well-supplied with sufficient inventory, but weak downstream demand is causing price pressure, leading to a downward shift in price levels; polysilicon spot prices have also declined [1] - Recent inflows of industrial silicon warehouse receipts have led to a slight decrease in inventory, but overall inventory levels remain high, exerting pressure on the spot market [1] - With the reduction in electricity prices during the flood season in the south, cost support has weakened further; however, current prices are below production costs, limiting further downside potential, and prices are expected to remain within a bottom range of fluctuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a minor increase in prices, but overall supply pressure remains significant, leading to potential downward price movements in the future [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On June 10, the main contract for industrial silicon closed at 7415, up by 60 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.82% increase, although the closing price was still down by 60 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The total trading volume for the main contract was 440,221 lots, with an open interest of 155,627 lots, and the current total open interest stands at 639,121 lots [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price recovery in the futures market has provided some confidence to the otherwise sluggish spot market, but the overall supply situation remains loose, with factories planning to resume production, which may increase supply pressure [3][7]. - The reduction in electricity prices during the flood season is expected to weaken cost support, potentially leading to further price declines as some factories may lower prices to alleviate pressure [3][7]. Raw Material Trends - The market for raw materials such as polysilicon and organosilicon remains stable, with no significant changes observed [5]. Future Considerations - The stability of industrial silicon prices is fragile, and market participants should closely monitor several factors: 1. The progress and scale of factory resumption [7] 2. The extent of electricity price reductions during the flood season [7] 3. The sustainability of the futures market rebound [7] 4. The resilience of downstream demand in key application areas [7] 5. The actual progress of inventory digestion in both social and factory stocks [7]

Group 1 - From February 2025, industrial silicon spot and futures prices have begun a new downward trend, with prices falling below 9600 yuan/ton in April due to weak fundamentals and slow destocking [1] - As of the third week of May, the average cost of industrial silicon per ton was 10,479.59 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.69%, with a negative gross profit of 924.49 yuan per ton [2] - In the first quarter of this year, the cumulative production of industrial silicon reached 906,800 tons, a decrease of 7.78 million tons or 7.90% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The demand side lacks growth momentum, with the organic silicon market experiencing continuous price declines and high inventory levels, leading to a reduced operating rate of 69.7% among 16 organic silicon enterprises [4] - The total demand for industrial silicon in the first quarter is estimated at 945,800 tons, a decrease of nearly 250,000 tons compared to last year [2][4] - The overall inventory of industrial silicon and downstream products continues to rise, with industrial silicon futures inventory at 331,900 tons, an increase of 4.90% month-on-month and 25.25% year-on-year [5] Group 3 - The supply pressure in the long term is highlighted by the seasonal production off-peak in Sichuan and Yunnan, with a combined production of 1,026,500 tons in 2024, accounting for 21.84% of the national total [3] - The overall macro drivers for the industrial silicon market are weak, with the pricing logic dominated by fundamentals, and the expected production in May is around 320,000 tons, significantly higher than the 632,000 tons needed for supply-demand balance [6] - The current inventory-to-consumption ratio has risen to 2.42, indicating a significant oversupply situation [5]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The current oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term, but there are signs of improvement in the downstream, and the silicon price is approaching the bottom [3] Group 3 Market Conditions - Industrial silicon spot prices fluctuated little yesterday, with the ex - factory price hovering at the bottom. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8490, up 2.72%, with a single - day reduction of 15774 lots. The current position is 146,500 lots, and the trading volume is 16.036 billion yuan [2] Supply Side - Silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong have stable production starts. Under the pressure of falling prices, the enthusiasm of silicon factories to start production is not high. Some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are planning to start production. The ex - factory quotation of silicon enterprises is slightly higher than the futures price, but there is not enough risk - free arbitrage and hedging space. Traders and basis traders are cautious in purchasing, and the overall inventory remains at a high level [2] Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are temporarily stable. N - type dense material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, N - type re -投料 at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and N - type mixed material at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Silicon material enterprises have a strong mentality of maintaining prices, and the prices are temporarily stable [2] - The price of organic silicon DMC is stable. The market's mainstream opening price is 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Large monomer manufacturers still offer discounts in actual transactions and have a strong willingness to ship. The number of inquiries from downstream enterprises has increased, showing a certain purchasing intention [2] - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is improving. Enterprises are producing normally and actively shipping. Favorable macro news has improved the market trading atmosphere [2] Inventory - On May 14, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 66,531 lots, an increase of 31 lots, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The current marginal demand for industrial silicon is weakening, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and high inventory and high warehouse receipts suppress the price rebound. Silicon prices are in a weak and volatile state [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - This week, the industrial silicon spot market is running weakly. Affected by the continuous weak downstream demand, the market is in a continuous slump. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10200 yuan/ton [1]. - Last Friday, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2506 was 8205, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily position reduction was 10,933 lots. The current position is 170,200 lots, and the trading volume is 14.349 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Northwest large - scale factories continue to cut production. The eastern production area has shut down 3 submerged arc furnaces, and the western production area has shut down 5 submerged arc furnaces, a total of 8. There may be more shutdown plans in the future. In the southwest production area, manufacturers are cautious about the current market, but some manufacturers said they will increase or resume production. It is expected that about 10 submerged arc furnaces will resume production from the end of the month to the second half of the month [1]. Demand Side - Polysilicon prices have no obvious fluctuations and remain within a range. The N - type compact material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, the N - type granular silicon is quoted at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, the N - type re - feed material is quoted at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and the N - type mixed material is quoted at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Component inventories are under pressure, and some enterprises are gradually planning production cuts. The main polysilicon futures contract ps2506 is approaching its first delivery, with obvious long - short differences in the market [1]. - The market price of organic silicon DMC is generally stable, with the mainstream opening price in the market referring to 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The organic silicon market shows signs of phased stabilization, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists [1]. - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is temporarily stable. The industry's operating rate has decreased. Downstream enterprises mainly consume pre - holiday orders, and their willingness to stock up after the holiday is insufficient [1]. Inventory On May 9, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 67,338 lots, a single - week decrease of 1,898 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to decrease but remains at a high level [1].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market continues to experience price declines due to a combination of increased supply and stable demand, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price fluctuated from 8540 CNY/ton to 8290 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.93% during the week of April 30 to May 7, 2025 [1]. - The national average price for industrial silicon is 9469 CNY/ton, down by 179 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw price declines: 553 grade at 9202 CNY/ton (down 200 CNY/ton), 441 grade at 9674 CNY/ton (down 181 CNY/ton), and 421 grade at 10134 CNY/ton (down 122 CNY/ton) [1]. - Regional prices include Xinjiang at 9371 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10024 CNY/ton, Fujian at 15163 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 10100 CNY/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to increase due to new production capacities coming online in May, despite some minor production cuts in the north at the end of April [2]. - Demand remains stable with organic silicon monomer plants operating at low utilization rates, and polysilicon plants maintaining steady production levels [2]. - Aluminum alloy manufacturers are purchasing industrial silicon based on demand, contributing to stable demand across the three main downstream sectors [2]. Market Sentiment and Price Pressure - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with a lack of significant demand growth and high inventory levels contributing to downward price pressure [2]. - Current market transactions are light, with downstream purchases primarily driven by immediate needs, limiting upward price momentum [2]. - Prices have fallen below cost levels, suggesting limited downside potential [2].